Your weekly dose of sports betting tips and news, every Saturday morning at 10am Eastern.

NFL preseason – Last week, we discussed the predictive value of NFL preseason. This research used points scored and allowed during preseason games.

To add to this analysis, I’ve taken point differential in preseason games and adjusted for opponent with my ranking algorithm. Despite the parity of the NFL, these schedule adjustments should matter with only three games.

These results show rank, team name, preseason record and preseason rating.

1. Las Vegas, (4-0), 9.23
2. Chicago, (3-0), 8.38
3. Baltimore, (3-0), 7.79
4. Kansas City, (2-1), 7.21
5. Houston, (3-0), 6.68
6. Miami, (2-1), 6.53
7. New York Jets, (3-0), 4.75
8. Carolina, (2-1), 3.39
9. Washington, (0-3), 2.48
10. New York Giants, (2-1), 2.41
11. Cleveland, (1-2), 2.37
12. Arizona, (1-2), 1.84
13. Green Bay, (1-2), 1.79
14. New England, (1-2), 1.42
15. San Francisco, (2-1), 1.38
16. Atlanta, (2-1), 0.76
17. Tennessee, (2-1), 0.49
18. New Orleans, (1-2), -0.01
19. Pittsburgh, (3-0), -0.47
20. Indianapolis, (1-2), -1.01
21. Buffalo, (2-1), -2.12
22. Cincinnati, (1-2), -2.31
23. Philadelphia, (1-2), -2.64
24. Minnesota, (0-3), -3.23
25. Los Angeles Rams, (1-2), -3.34
26. Detroit, (1-2), -3.88
27. Tampa Bay, (0-3), -4.45
28. Denver, (2-1), -5.36
29. Jacksonville, (0-4), -7.38
30. Seattle, (0-3), -7.85
31. Dallas, (2-1), -9.37
32. Los Angeles Chargers, (0-3), -16.10

While many are high on the Los Angeles Chargers, they were the worst NFL preseason team by a large margin. QB Justin Herbert didn’t play, but neither did QB Derek Carr for Las Vegas, a team rated highest this preseason.

Las Vegas at Los Angeles Chargers – Speaking of the Chargers, Dr. Eric Eager of PFF came on The Football Analytics Show podcast to preview the upcoming NFL season. When asked about a bet, he said that he likes Las Vegas +3.5 at the Los Angeles Chargers.

One reason that Eric gave for liking the Raiders is injuries. Las Vegas has weaknesses on the offensive line and secondary, but at least these units head into the opening game with full health. In contrast, Chargers CB J.C. Jackson, a critical offseason signing from New England, has an ankle injury and is a game time decision.

Eric also analyzed Pittsburgh and whether Mike Tomlin is a good coach, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay in a must listen episode of The Football Analytics Show.

Injuries – Unless otherwise noted, these come from USA Today for college football and ESPN for NFL.

• Dallas QB Dak Prescott had an ankle injury this week, but he is no longer on the injury report and should play against Tampa Bay.
• New York Jets QB Zach Wilson will not return from a knee injury until week 4. Joe Flacco most likely starts until then.
• Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman was cleared to play against Vanderbilt after dealing with a blood clot issue.
• Southern Miss QB Ty Keyes is questionable against Miami (FL).
• Texas Tech QB Tyler Shough left the previous game with a shoulder injury and is questionable against Houston.

Cleveland at Carolina – Pro NFL bettor Rob Pizzola likes Cleveland moneyline at -110 in this game, as he gives the Browns a 53.7% chance to win. While this number is available at DraftKings, sharp sports book Circa has Cleveland -2.5 as of Saturday morning.

While we can’t ignore the QB position, Rob thinks Cleveland has match up advantages at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Carolina QB Baker Mayfield should be under duress, and Cleveland’s run game will take pressure off QB Jacoby Brissett.

Rob also launched The Hammer, a new sports betting media company, this week.

NFL defensive player of the year – In a solo episode of The Football Analytics Show, I explained how an edge rusher’s pressure rate is more predictive from season to season than sack rate. Pressures are the sum of sacks, hits and hurries, and this larger set of events provides a better assessment of player performance.

Last season, Las Vegas’s Maxx Crosby had 11 sacks, an unimpressive total. However, Crosby had a 17.3% pressure rate, second best among edge rushers. This rate is significantly higher than the NFL average of 10.3%.

These metrics suggest value in Maxx Crosby to win AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year at 30-1 at FanDuel (thanks to @Clevta for this tip).

Duke at Northwestern – After winning the Big Ten West in 2020, Pat Fitzgerald’s Northwestern team cratered last season. Long time defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz retired, and the Wildcats couldn’t do anything on either side of the ball.

In 2022, not much was expected from Northwestern. However, they beat Nebraska as a double digit underdog in their first game. Now Duke comes to town, and Northwestern has a rest advantage (they didn’t play last week while Duke did, worth 0.9 points according to my research).

The Power Rank’s member numbers like Northwestern by 12.2 points. The markets have moved from Northwestern -9.5 on Tuesday to -10 on Saturday morning.

The girlfriend who didn’t exist – If I say Manti Te’o, you will immediately think of his imaginary girlfriend. You might laugh at a man in a romantic relationship with a female he has never met.

A two hour Netflix documentary tells this story of the star Notre Dame linebacker, and you’ll have your hands behind your head, Edvard Munch, The Scream style, most of the time while watching it. But by the end, you might find an ounce of empathy for Te’o.

Football betting with a PhD edge

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Quick announcement – It is with sadness that we bid farewell to the work of Edward Egros. He got a full time job with NFL Next Gen Stats.

I’ll be taking over these nuggets, which will still appear every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

College football predictions – These member predictions are mostly based on The Power Rank’s preseason prior, although updates were made in some cases as discussed below.

• Michigan will beat Colorado State by 26.1 points at home – QB Cade McNamara, the incumbent from last season, gets the start in this game. QB J.J. McCarthy, who may have a higher upside, will start the next game against Hawaii.
• Tulsa will beat Wyoming by 6.0 points on the road – This prediction got adjusted after Wyoming’s loss to Illinois last week, as Wyoming managed a 23.5% success rate on offense (41.1% college football average last season). The market has moved from Tulsa -3 to -6.5 as of Saturday morning.
• Clemson will beat Georgia Tech by 24.0 points a neutral site – The market has shifted from Clemson -21.5 to -23.5 at some sports books by Saturday morning. Bill Connelly described the attempt of Georgia Tech coach Geoff Collins to save his job as a Hail Mary.

Joe Burrow and sacks – Despite a Super Bowl run, the Cincinnati QB got sacked 70 times during the regular and post season. The next closest QB was Ryan Tannehill at 58 sacks.

While you might question the pocket presence of Burrow, the data suggest that sack rate isn’t the most predictive statistic to measure pocket presence. Instead of looking at sacks, it’s better to look a pressures, or the sum of sacks, hits and hurries on a QB.

Pressure rate is predictive (R-squared value of 0.26 from season to season for NFL QBs), and Burrow has had an NFL average pressure rate during his two seasons. He won’t lead the NFL in sacks in 2022.

In the last episode of the 2022 Preview Series of The Football Analytics Show, I dug into the research on NFL QBs and also asked whether this helps predict fumbles.

Predictive nature of the NFL preseason – It might seem stupid to think preseason games have any ability to predict actual NFL games. However, the numbers beg to differ.

Kostya Medvedovsky built a simple model that uses preseason data (points scored and allowed) and market win totals to predict the regular season. He found that four preseason games made up one sixth of the optimal prediction.

Even though the NFL has moved to three preseason games, it’s worth looking at 2022 preseason point differential. The top three teams in point differential are Las Vegas, Miami and… (don’t laugh) Houston.

Edward Egros also noted other insights from the NFL preseason in an episode of the 2022 Preview Series on The Football Analytics Show. You can catch all five episodes of the Preview Series here.

Injuries – The college football data was obtained from USA Today.

• Notre Dame QB Tyler Buchner won the job but is now dealing with an ankle injury. He will probably be active against Ohio State.
• Auburn QB T.J. Finley won the job but was arrested in early August, which suggested that he might face a suspension. This preview of the game against Mercer suggests he will play. If not, redshirt freshman Robby Ashford would get the start, as he beat out Texas A&M transfer Zach Calzada for the back up job.
• Kansas State QB Adrian Martinez is expected to dress against South Dakota despite a shoulder injury. He is probably eager to prove himself after his transfer from Nebraska.
• Syracuse QB Garret Schrader has a hamstring injury but will play against Louisville.

Famous bettor buys European soccer club – Haralabos Voulgaris made millions betting on the NBA with analytics and subjective analysis. Now, he’s taking these skill to soccer.

This summer, Voulgaris purchased CD Castellon, a Spanish soccer club playing in the third division. He has a player model that led the team to buy defender Oscar Gil and has identified scoring on set pieces as an inefficiency (article on ESPN+, subscription required).

Voulgaris has a six year plan for Castellon. The financial windfall of promotion in European soccer is an opportunity not available in American sports.

Football betting with a PhD edge

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

• Valuable
• Concise
• Entertaining

Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet.

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Your weekly dose of sports betting news and tips, each Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Nebraska at Northwestern – On Tuesday, the spread got as high as Nebraska -13.5 for their match up in Dublin against Northwestern. Sharp bettors said to hell with The Power Rank’s numbers and supported Scott Frost and his attempts to revive this Cornhuskers program.

The markets have since shifted to Nebraska -11.5 as of Saturday morning (you can check the daily progression of the market on the free Unabated odds screen). This is much closer to prediction of Nebraska by 10.4 by The Power Rank’s public prediction.

To get predictions for all college football games this season, check out the public predictions page at The Power Rank.

Worst NFL Record – Here’s a fun way to start your weekend: making money off of the misery of others!!! Who will have the worst record in the NFL? There seems to be a consensus among sports books that Houston should be the favorite.

However, The Power Rank’s member rankings actually have the second-favorite in Atlanta as the weakest team in the NFL. The Falcons also have a slightly tougher schedule having to face Tampa Bay twice, the Rams and the AFC North, while the Texans get the weaker NFC East.

The evolution of the Kansas City offense – On The Football Analytics Show, NFL bettor Fabian Sommer broke down how the offense of the Chiefs changed last season.

As defenses played two deep safeties to take away the deep pass, the offense went to shorter passes. During the second half of the season, the Chiefs had the lowest average depth of target (ADOT) but second highest yards after catch. This evolution helped them finish first in The Power Rank’s adjusted passing success rate.

Despite the loss of WR Tyreek Hill, Fabian thinks the Kansas City offense will excel in 2022. He also broke down coaching changes at three NFL teams and two win totals he likes in an excellent episode of The Football Analytics Show.

MLB Injuries – One of the bigger factors that make betting futures so volatile is predicting injuries. It’s foolish to assume the full health of any team. At the same time, predicting injuries is quite the challenge.

I wrote about some things to think about for FOX Sports when it comes health in October. Those factors include average age of the roster, injury history (a prior injury implies an increased odds of getting hurt again) and, specifically with pitchers, average velocity.

These factors point to why the Phillies and Guardians may have betting value, simply because they could be the healthiest in October.

Big 12 Futures – The Power Five conference that has the most uncertainty is the Big 12. On FanDuel, the Big 12 favorite has the longest odds among all favorites (Oklahoma at +200). The Sooners have a new head coach, new transfer quarterback and questions concerning its offensive line.

Kelley Ford has put together some outstanding visualizations representing expectations for season win totals. You see why he has OU as the team to beat in the Big 12 and also breakdowns for every other conference.

U.S. Open – The final tennis Grand Slam event of the year begins Monday. With Novak Djokovic’s absence due to his vaccination status, the men’s draw has opened up considerably. Defending champion Daniil Medvedev is the favorite (+230 on FanDuel) but Tennis Abstract lists Carlos Alcaraz as having the highest Elo rating among those competing (+500 on FanDuel).

On the women’s side, this tournament is Iga Swiatek’s to lose. The world’s #1 player leads the WTA Tour in return games won at 52.1% and has victories on this surface at Doha, Indian Wells and Miami. By the way, Serena Williams is 50-1 if you’re feeling nostalgic.

The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals – NBA betting legend Haralabob Voulgaris tweeted the following about Ed Feng’s recent curated summary of the best podcast interviews:

Pretty good read for those interested in sports betting. https://t.co/EdcUAPvIYU

— Haralabos Voulgaris (@haralabob) August 24, 2022

In addition to Voulgaris, the article looks at the following pro sports bettors:

• AbnormallyDist
• Alan Boston
• Rufus Peabody

The article digs into how professionals originate, view closing line value and get down.

Data driven betting information

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

• Valuable
• Concise
• Entertaining

Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”

 

 

 

Your weekly dose of sports betting tips and news, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Arkansas win total – Sam Pittman has performed a miracle in Fayetteville. He inherited a program with a 2-10 record in 2019 and went 9-4 last season. In addition, Arkansas gets QB KJ Jefferson back this season.

However, Arkansas loses a ton of talent on defense. Pittman will primarily rely on transfers to keep up their performance on this side of the ball.

In The Power Rank’s college football win total predictions, Arkansas projects for 6.0 wins. Life is difficult in the SEC West, a division in which all seven teams rank in the top 30 of The Power Rank. This suggests under 7.5 wins for the Razorbacks.

Top down vs bottom up – On an episode of The Football Analytics Show, Captain Jack Andrews, founder of Unabated, compared and contrasted these two approaches. However, he ended the segment with some advice: use both.

As an example, he talked about two different ways to bet the NFL:

• To bet spreads, look for when sharp sports books move, and then bet at the recreational books slow to follow this move. This is the top down, steam chasing approach.
• To bet player props, develop your own model for tight ends. This prop market is easier to beat, and books will take reasonable sized bets.

With two different profitable ways of betting, you not only win more money but smooth out the variance in your earnings. Captain Jack also discussed the tools at Unabated, book making and how exchanges work in an excellent episode of The Football Analytics Show.

NFL Preseason Totals – After one week of riveting preseason games, we’ve found an unusual betting trend. As radio host Joe Ostrowski pointed out, not only are overs 14-3 coming into this week, most totals cleared the mark by more than a touchdown and several were by double-digits.

There may not be one overarching reason why. Offenses are still running vanilla plays, and it does not seem like starters are playing significantly more than they normally do. It could also be small sample size.

But, sports books are adjusting. Of the 12 games to be played in the second week of the preseason, four have a total of at least 40. Proceed cautiously.

Daniel Jones Hype – At least in my universe, it seems like another expert I trust is expressing optimism for Giants quarterback Daniel Jones. Whether it’s JJ Zachariason on The Football Analytics Show podcast or Josh Hermsmeyer on FiveThirtyEight, having some of the braintrust behind Buffalo’s offensive revolution joining the G-Men seems to be reason for an uptick. After all, they have nowhere to go but up.

However, before placing overs on any Jones props, the Giants’ backup is veteran Tyrod Taylor, who does have some experience running play action (on play action plays from 2019-2021, Taylor has a higher completion percentage over expected than Jones but a lower EPA/dropback). In a way, Brian Daboll does have a rip cord.

American League Rookie of the Year – It seemed like Seattle outfielder Julio Rodriguez was going to run away with this award. He’s about to lead the Mariners to their first postseason appearance since the George W. Bush Administration, nearly won the Home Run Derby and is dangerously close to finishing with 25 home runs this season.

However, as I wrote for FOX Sports this week, there’s a case to be made Baltimore catcher Adley Rutschman. He could do enough in these finals weeks to snag the award away from Rodriguez. Simply looking at his odds shorten substantially since the All-Star Break is a sign the market thinks this wunderkind has a chance.

SEC humor – “Please wait for me to call the Music City Bowl prospects boarding group. Thank you.” SEC Shorts brings the laughs with their latest video on SEC teams boarding for the 2022 season.

WNBA Playoffs – There’s a case for nearly every underdog in every WNBA playoff series this year. Aside from New York upsetting Chicago Wednesday night, Dallas has found an offensive spark retooling its starting lineup, Washington finally has Elena Delle Donne back, etc.

But, just like other levels of basketball, Dean Oliver’s Four Factors are just as relevant: shooting, rebounds, turnovers and free throw rate. Using this approach, there may be value betting on Connecticut to win the championship (+300 on FanDuel, an increase in win probability from +360), followed by the Sky even though they’re trailing in their best-of-three series (+600, an increase in probability from 700).

Data driven betting information

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

• Valuable
• Concise
• Entertaining

Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”

 

 

 

Your weekly dose of sports betting tips and news, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

College football predictions – The Power Rank predictions are based data from previous seasons and the current markets. Here is a sample of the predictions available to members.

• Nebraska will beat Northwestern by 9.6 points on the road. Both of these teams had 3-9 records last season. However, Nebraska went an astonishing 0-7 in one score games. Record in one score games tends to regress to the mean of .500.
• Ohio State will beat Notre Dame by 13.5 points at home. New Fighting Irish coach Marcus Freeman jumps straight into the fire with a trip to Columbus. At least his defense returns stars like DE Isaiah Foskey and CB Cam Hart, and this unit will need to play well against an explosive Buckeyes offense.
• Georgia will beat Oregon by 17.4 points at home. New Oregon coach Dan Lanning also jumps into the fire and faces his former defense at Georgia. At least the Bulldogs lost five defensive players to the 1st round of the NFL draft. However, Georgia QB Stetson Bennett gets his top three receivers back from last season.

This season, The Power Rank will also post public predictions for every college football game. Look for details next week.

NFL Preseason News – Congratulations to the Baltimore Ravens for extending the NFL’s longest preseason winning streak to 21 games! It might be a record we may never see broken, like Cal Ripken Jr.’s consecutive games played or Secretariat’s 31-length victory at the Belmont.

Aside from that streak, it’s hard to keep up with trends and news for NFL Preseason games, which might be more imperative for betting than the regular season. Fortunately, PFF dug through coach’s quotes, beat reporter notes, etc. and posted the findings to make you a more informed bettor.

4th best college football team – When ESPN’s Bill Connelly joined The Football Analytics Show, he noted the same gap between the 3rd and 4th team in his SP+ rankings (subscription required) and the 4th and 23rd teams. 20 teams are in contention to be fourth behind Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia.

Bill discussed the strengths and weakness of a few contenders:

• Michigan – The offense has two legit quarterbacks, but the defense needs to replace two elite pass rushers.
• Clemson – The defense is amazing, but the offense is praying that regression bumps them back up to program average.
• Utah – The offense surged when QB Cam Rising took over, but they need playmakers to make big plays on offense.

Bill also talked about dark horse Heisman candidates, college football win totals and the Bundesliga on his yearly appearance The Football Analytics Show.

Importance of Bullpens – One of the earlier sports analytics projects I ever had was identifying the most important variables for predicting winners of MLB postseason games. Even way back then, I found bullpen success to be one of those factors.

The Basewinner podcast agreed. On a recent episode of this show about sabermetrics and betting, the guys broke down what their data suggest as the top bullpens in baseball.

Their approach is different in that they weigh context, meaning striking out elite hitters is worth more than striking out the worst lineup in baseball. According to their rankings, these top three bullpens may provide betting value this postseason: Seattle, Atlanta and Cleveland.

Sharp sports books – Sick of getting limited at sports books because you’re winning? According to Captain Jack Andrews of Unabated, life should get better this fall.

Jack sees more sharp books coming online this fall than recreational, kick the sharps out books. Already, Caesars has gotten the reputation for not limiting sharp bettors. Clearly, Halle Berry and J.B. Smoove would not have lent their services to a book that limits sharps. Do you see that talent at square books? No? Case closed.

Life Advice from a Statistician – Regular readers and listeners of Dr. Ed Feng know about his background as a statistician and how he incorporated those skills into sports analytics and the betting space. But, many of the lessons learned through statistical analysis go far beyond crunching numbers.

PhD candidate Kareem Carr composed a Twitter thread detailing these lessons including: good rules fail often, information isn’t free and huge amounts of biased information is often worse than no information at all.

Support The Football Analytics Show – The podcast is launching a Patreon for listeners to support the show. These kind people get the ever lasting thanks of host Ed Feng, as well as an extra solo episode every month. This month’s premium episode quantifies home and rest advantage in football.

The first 20 supporters get an extra bonus, so check out the Patreon when it launches at 6pm Eastern on Sunday, August 14.

To make sure you get notified, either check out the podcast at that time or sign up for The Power Rank’s sports betting email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

• Valuable
• Concise
• Entertaining

Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”