Predictions

The Power Rank uses data and analytics to make accurate predictions for football and March Madness. I developed these methods based on my PhD in applied math from Stanford.

My college football win totals report comes out in July, 2019. These predictions are based on a preseason model which has predicted the game winner in 70.1% of games (2560-1090) the past 5 seasons. 

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Major League Baseball

The matchup shows the projected FIP (adjusted ERA) for each starting pitcher according to ZiPS.

The integer in parentheses gives the team’s rank in The Power Rank, which now include data from the current season.

Since Apr 10, 2019, the team with the higher win probability has won 330 of 556 games for a win percentage of 59.4%.

The team favored by the markets has won 349.0 of 556 games for a win percentage of 62.8%.

Games on Wednesday, May 22, 2019.

Cincinnati (Luis Castillo, 3.78) at Milwaukee (Zach Davies, 4.24).
Milwaukee (9) has a 52.1 chance to beat Cincinnati (14).

Arizona (Merrill Kelly, 4.54) at San Diego (Eric Lauer, 4.55).
Arizona (10) has a 55.2 chance to beat San Diego (18).

Using replacement level fip for Montana DuRapau
Colorado (Jon Gray, 4.08) at Pittsburgh (Montana DuRapau, 5.00).
Colorado (23) has a 50.5 chance to beat Pittsburgh (15).

Washington (Max Scherzer, 2.94) at New York Mets (Jacob deGrom, 2.90).
New York Mets (22) has a 51.2 chance to beat Washington (19).

Philadelphia (Cole Irvin, 5.17) at Chicago Cubs (Cole Hamels, 4.15).
Chicago Cubs (4) has a 69.5 chance to beat Philadelphia (21).

Atlanta (Max Fried, 4.25) at San Francisco (Jeff Samardzija, 4.44).
Atlanta (11) has a 60.2 chance to beat San Francisco (25).

Oakland (Frankie Montas, 4.10) at Cleveland (Jefry Rodriguez, 4.88).
Oakland (12) has a 55.7 chance to beat Cleveland (13).

Seattle (Marco Gonzales, 3.99) at Texas (Adrian Sampson, 5.00).
Seattle (20) has a 53.7 chance to beat Texas (17).

New York Yankees (CC Sabathia, 4.77) at Baltimore (Dan Straily, 6.24).
New York Yankees (7) has a 76.8 chance to beat Baltimore (29).

Boston (Rick Porcello, 4.34) at Toronto (Anibal Sanchez, 4.40).
Boston (6) has a 63.7 chance to beat Toronto (26).

Chicago White Sox (Ivan Nova, 4.93) at Houston (Gerrit Cole, 3.05).
Houston (1) has a 88.4 chance to beat Chicago White Sox (27).

Minnesota (Martin Perez, 4.16) at Los Angeles Angels (Matt Harvey, 4.64).
Minnesota (5) has a 60.9 chance to beat Los Angeles Angels (16).

Kansas City (Brad Keller, 4.25) at St. Louis (Michael Wacha, 4.52).
St. Louis (8) has a 60.9 chance to beat Kansas City (24).

Miami (Jose Urena, 4.65) at Detroit (Daniel Norris, 4.41).
Detroit (28) has a 55.4 chance to beat Miami (30).

Los Angeles Dodgers (Rich Hill, 4.18) at Tampa Bay (Ryne Stanek, 3.98).
Los Angeles Dodgers (2) has a 51.6 chance to beat Tampa Bay (3).

Using replacement level fip for Homer Bailey
Kansas City (Homer Bailey, 5.00) at St. Louis (Adam Wainwright, 4.30).
St. Louis (8) has a 67.3 chance to beat Kansas City (24).

NFL

College Football

These predictions based on adjusted margin of victory have predicted the winner in 74.5% of games straight up during the 2016 and 2017 seasons (1133-388). This record does not include any cupcake FBS vs FCS games.

College basketball

These college basketball predictions come from my points based team rankings.

National Basketball Association

To get details on my NBA model for 2018 and series win win probability before the NBA Finals, click here.