Predictions

Do you need accurate football and March Madness predictions? The Power Rank seeks to make the best possible predictions based on data and computers.

It started with team rankings that take margin of victory and adjust for strength of schedule. Back in 2008, I developed an algorithm that makes these adjustments.

Each year in July, I release a college football win totals report. These numbers are based on my preseason ranking which have predicted the game winner in 70.8% of games (1452-598 with no prediction in 235 games) over the past 3 seasons.

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International Soccer

My rankings were a part of an academic study on making football predictions.

Saturday, June 24, 2017

New Zealand vs Portugal: Portugal has a 86.9% chance to win. New Zealand has a 0.9% chance to win. There is a 12.2% chance for a tie.

Mexico at Russia: Russia has a 38.8% chance to win. Mexico has a 30.6% chance to win. There is a 30.7% chance for a tie.

Sunday, June 25, 2017

Chile vs Australia: Chile has a 64.8% chance to win. Australia has a 14.5% chance to win. There is a 20.7% chance for a tie.

Germany vs Cameroon: Germany has a 75.0% chance to win. Cameroon has a 4.5% chance to win. There is a 20.5% chance for a tie.

Major League Baseball

The matchup shows the projected FIP (adjusted ERA) for each starting pitcher according to ZiPS.

The integer in parentheses gives the team’s rank in The Power Rank.

Since Apr 27, 2017, the team with the higher win probability has won 433 of 767 games for a win percentage of 56.5%.

The team favored by the markets has won 429.5 of 767 games for a win percentage of 56.0%.

Games on Saturday, June 24, 2017.

Cincinnati (Homer Bailey, 4.50) at Washington (Joe Ross, 3.81).
Washington (5) has a 69.1 chance to beat Cincinnati (25).

Chicago Cubs (Jon Lester, 3.43) at Miami (Justin Nicolino, 4.64).
Chicago Cubs (8) has a 60.5 chance to beat Miami (17).

Milwaukee (Matt Garza, 4.64) at Atlanta (R.A. Dickey, 4.98).
Milwaukee (22) has a 52.3 chance to beat Atlanta (24).

Pittsburgh (Gerrit Cole, 3.73) at St. Louis (Lance Lynn, 4.49).
Pittsburgh (23) has a 50.1 chance to beat St. Louis (15).

New York Mets (Jacob deGrom, 3.43) at San Francisco (Johnny Cueto, 3.62).
New York Mets (27) has a 50.0 chance to beat San Francisco (26).

Philadelphia (Ben Lively, 4.81) at Arizona (Robbie Ray, 3.51).
Arizona (6) has a 76.3 chance to beat Philadelphia (30).

Colorado (Tyler Chatwood, 4.73) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw, 2.65).
Los Angeles Dodgers (3) has a 74.3 chance to beat Colorado (12).

Texas (Austin Bibens-Dirkx, 5.58) at New York Yankees (Luis Cessa, 5.17).
New York Yankees (2) has a 67.7 chance to beat Texas (18).

Oakland (Daniel Gossett, 4.80) at Chicago White Sox (James Shields, 4.95).
Oakland (11) has a 53.0 chance to beat Chicago White Sox (19).

Toronto (Marco Estrada, 4.25) at Kansas City (Jason Vargas, 3.75).
Kansas City (20) has a 52.2 chance to beat Toronto (14).

Baltimore (Dylan Bundy, 4.19) at Tampa Bay (Jacob Faria, 4.31).
Tampa Bay (7) has a 65.7 chance to beat Baltimore (28).

Minnesota (Kyle Gibson, 4.56) at Cleveland (Corey Kluber, 3.05).
Cleveland (4) has a 72.7 chance to beat Minnesota (21).

Los Angeles Angels (JC Ramirez, 4.39) at Boston (David Price, 3.62).
Boston (9) has a 57.7 chance to beat Los Angeles Angels (13).

Houston (Lance McCullers, 3.23) at Seattle (Sam Gaviglio, 5.05).
Houston (1) has a 73.3 chance to beat Seattle (10).

Detroit (Anibal Sanchez, 4.78) at San Diego (Dinelson Lamet, 4.58).
Detroit (16) has a 55.7 chance to beat San Diego (29).

NFL Draft

To check out my wisdom of crowds predictions for the 2017 NFL Draft, click here.

College Basketball, Tournament Games

To see the tourney win probability for each team in an interactive bracket, click here.

College Football

During the 2016 season, these college football predictions predicted the winner in 72.7% of games (550-206).

During the 2015 season, these college football predictions predicted the winner in 76.2% of games (583-182).

These record do not include any cupcake FBS vs FCS games.

National Basketball Association

To see an interactive visual with win probabilities before the 2017 playoffs started, click here.