Predictions

Do you need accurate football and March Madness predictions? This page shows predictions I’ve developed based on my Stanford Ph.D. in Chemical Engineering.

I also create member predictions for college football and the NFL. These ensemble predictions use additional data sources to make more accurate predictions than the ones shown here.

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NFL Playoffs, Conference Championships

These predictions come from team rankings based on margin of victory adjusted for strength of schedule.

Members of The Power Rank have access to more accurate ensemble predictions that also use data from games and markets. Members also get predictions for totals.

To learn more about becoming a member, click here.

1. Minnesota at Philadelphia.
Philadelphia (2) will beat Minnesota (3) by 2.8 at home. Minnesota has a 42% chance of beating Philadelphia.

This requires an adjustment for the injury to Carson Wentz.

2. Jacksonville at New England.
New England (1) will beat Jacksonville (11) by 8.5 at home. Jacksonville has a 28% chance of beating New England.

NFL Draft

To check out my wisdom of crowds predictions for the 2017 NFL Draft, click here.

College Basketball

Games on Thursday, January 18, 2018.

1. USC at Oregon.
Oregon (61) will beat USC (52) by 2.8 at home. USC has a 35% chance of beating Oregon.

2. Murray State at Belmont.
Belmont (69) will beat Murray State (75) by 4.2 at home. Murray State has a 28% chance of beating Belmont.

3. Minnesota at Maryland.
Maryland (43) will beat Minnesota (65) by 6.3 at home. Minnesota has a 19% chance of beating Maryland.

4. Louisiana Lafayette at Texas Arlington.
Texas Arlington (98) will beat Louisiana Lafayette (90) by 3.0 at home. Louisiana Lafayette has a 34% chance of beating Texas Arlington.

5. St. Mary’s at Gonzaga.
Gonzaga (9) will beat St. Mary’s (39) by 8.3 at home. St. Mary’s has a 13% chance of beating Gonzaga.

6. Washington at Utah.
Utah (77) will beat Washington (99) by 5.0 at home. Washington has a 25% chance of beating Utah.

7. Wake Forest at North Carolina State.
North Carolina State (51) will beat Wake Forest (88) by 6.5 at home. Wake Forest has a 19% chance of beating North Carolina State.

8. UCLA at Oregon State.
Oregon State (96) will beat UCLA (62) by 1.0 at home. UCLA has a 44% chance of beating Oregon State.

9. UAB at Western Kentucky.
Western Kentucky (30) will beat UAB (78) by 8.4 at home. UAB has a 13% chance of beating Western Kentucky.

10. Michigan at Nebraska.
Michigan (21) will beat Nebraska (74) by 2.8 on the road. Nebraska has a 35% chance of beating Michigan.

11. East Tennessee State at Furman.
East Tennessee State (60) will beat Furman (112) by 0.5 on the road. Furman has a 47% chance of beating East Tennessee State.

12. Washington State at Colorado.
Colorado (89) will beat Washington State (140) by 6.6 at home. Washington State has a 18% chance of beating Colorado.

13. Virginia at Georgia Tech.
Virginia (3) will beat Georgia Tech (101) by 9.4 on the road. Georgia Tech has a 11% chance of beating Virginia.

14. Middle Tennessee State at Marshall.
Middle Tennessee State (46) will beat Marshall (131) by 3.1 on the road. Marshall has a 33% chance of beating Middle Tennessee State.

15. Northeastern at William & Mary.
William & Mary (170) will beat Northeastern (149) by 2.0 at home. Northeastern has a 39% chance of beating William & Mary.

16. North Texas at Louisiana Tech.
Louisiana Tech (148) will beat North Texas (173) by 5.2 at home. North Texas has a 24% chance of beating Louisiana Tech.

17. North Carolina Asheville at Winthrop.
Winthrop (178) will beat North Carolina Asheville (181) by 3.8 at home. North Carolina Asheville has a 30% chance of beating Winthrop.

18. Florida Gulf Coast at Lipscomb.
Lipscomb (176) will beat Florida Gulf Coast (144) by 1.4 at home. Florida Gulf Coast has a 42% chance of beating Lipscomb.

19. Coastal Carolina at South Alabama.
South Alabama (203) will beat Coastal Carolina (188) by 3.0 at home. Coastal Carolina has a 34% chance of beating South Alabama.

20. St. Francis (PA) at Wagner.
Wagner (223) will beat St. Francis (PA) (202) by 2.5 at home. St. Francis (PA) has a 36% chance of beating Wagner.

21. Appalachian State at Troy.
Troy (163) will beat Appalachian State (210) by 6.4 at home. Appalachian State has a 19% chance of beating Troy.

22. Austin Peay at Tennessee State.
Tennessee State (226) will beat Austin Peay (198) by 2.2 at home. Austin Peay has a 38% chance of beating Tennessee State.

23. Northern Kentucky at Wisconsin Milwaukee.
Northern Kentucky (64) will beat Wisconsin Milwaukee (189) by 5.0 on the road. Wisconsin Milwaukee has a 24% chance of beating Northern Kentucky.

24. Rider at St. Peter’s.
Rider (126) will beat St. Peter’s (201) by 1.1 on the road. St. Peter’s has a 44% chance of beating Rider.

25. Drexel at Towson.
Towson (103) will beat Drexel (207) by 9.9 at home. Drexel has a 10% chance of beating Towson.

26. Binghamton at Stony Brook.
Stony Brook (197) will beat Binghamton (236) by 5.7 at home. Binghamton has a 22% chance of beating Stony Brook.

27. Louisiana Monroe at Texas State.
Texas State (194) will beat Louisiana Monroe (244) by 6.1 at home. Louisiana Monroe has a 20% chance of beating Texas State.

28. Seattle at New Mexico State.
New Mexico State (58) will beat Seattle (232) by 14.8 at home. Seattle has a 3% chance of beating New Mexico State.

29. Loyola Marymount at Brigham Young.
Brigham Young (73) will beat Loyola Marymount (225) by 13.0 at home. Loyola Marymount has a 5% chance of beating Brigham Young.

30. Vermont at New Hampshire.
Vermont (66) will beat New Hampshire (227) by 6.5 on the road. New Hampshire has a 19% chance of beating Vermont.

31. Elon at James Madison.
Elon (179) will beat James Madison (239) by 0.2 on the road. James Madison has a 49% chance of beating Elon.

32. Denver at Nebraska Omaha.
Nebraska Omaha (256) will beat Denver (275) by 4.7 at home. Denver has a 26% chance of beating Nebraska Omaha.

33. Liberty at High Point.
Liberty (147) will beat High Point (235) by 2.1 on the road. High Point has a 38% chance of beating Liberty.

34. Niagara at Quinnipiac.
Quinnipiac (260) will beat Niagara (215) by 0.9 at home. Niagara has a 45% chance of beating Quinnipiac.

35. Delaware at Hofstra.
Hofstra (159) will beat Delaware (241) by 8.7 at home. Delaware has a 12% chance of beating Hofstra.

36. Tennessee-Martin at Eastern Illinois.
Eastern Illinois (245) will beat Tennessee-Martin (274) by 5.2 at home. Tennessee-Martin has a 23% chance of beating Eastern Illinois.

37. Utah Valley at UT Rio Grande Valley.
Utah Valley (128) will beat UT Rio Grande Valley (240) by 3.2 on the road. UT Rio Grande Valley has a 33% chance of beating Utah Valley.

38. CSU Bakersfield at Missouri Kansas City.
Missouri Kansas City (289) will beat CSU Bakersfield (271) by 2.2 at home. CSU Bakersfield has a 38% chance of beating Missouri Kansas City.

39. Old Dominion at Florida International.
Old Dominion (80) will beat Florida International (249) by 6.9 on the road. Florida International has a 17% chance of beating Old Dominion.

40. Mount St. Mary’s at St. Francis (NY).
St. Francis (NY) (284) will beat Mount St. Mary’s (307) by 4.8 at home. Mount St. Mary’s has a 25% chance of beating St. Francis (NY).

41. Charleston Southern at Campbell.
Campbell (253) will beat Charleston Southern (287) by 5.7 at home. Charleston Southern has a 21% chance of beating Campbell.

42. Sacramento State at Weber State.
Weber State (217) will beat Sacramento State (276) by 7.0 at home. Sacramento State has a 17% chance of beating Weber State.

43. Marist at Siena.
Siena (262) will beat Marist (297) by 5.7 at home. Marist has a 22% chance of beating Siena.

44. Jacksonville at South Carolina Upstate.
South Carolina Upstate (329) will beat Jacksonville (324) by 3.0 at home. Jacksonville has a 33% chance of beating South Carolina Upstate.

45. North Florida at NJIT.
NJIT (259) will beat North Florida (295) by 5.8 at home. North Florida has a 21% chance of beating NJIT.

46. Farleigh Dickinson at Central Connecticut State.
Central Connecticut State (273) will beat Farleigh Dickinson (303) by 5.5 at home. Farleigh Dickinson has a 23% chance of beating Central Connecticut State.

47. IUPUI at Cleveland State.
Cleveland State (310) will beat IUPUI (282) by 1.7 at home. IUPUI has a 40% chance of beating Cleveland State.

48. Cal Poly at UC Irvine.
UC Irvine (199) will beat Cal Poly (277) by 8.0 at home. Cal Poly has a 14% chance of beating UC Irvine.

49. Presbyterian at Gardner-Webb.
Gardner-Webb (267) will beat Presbyterian (308) by 6.2 at home. Presbyterian has a 20% chance of beating Gardner-Webb.

50. Tennessee Tech at Eastern Kentucky.
Tennessee Tech (228) will beat Eastern Kentucky (293) by 0.6 on the road. Eastern Kentucky has a 47% chance of beating Tennessee Tech.

51. Charlotte at Florida Atlantic.
Florida Atlantic (238) will beat Charlotte (300) by 7.3 at home. Charlotte has a 16% chance of beating Florida Atlantic.

52. Portland State at Idaho State.
Portland State (139) will beat Idaho State (278) by 5.0 on the road. Idaho State has a 24% chance of beating Portland State.

53. Jacksonville State at Morehead State.
Jacksonville State (124) will beat Morehead State (279) by 5.8 on the road. Morehead State has a 21% chance of beating Jacksonville State.

54. Robert Morris at Sacred Heart.
Robert Morris (200) will beat Sacred Heart (296) by 2.2 on the road. Sacred Heart has a 38% chance of beating Robert Morris.

55. Stetson at Kennesaw State.
Kennesaw State (321) will beat Stetson (280) by 0.3 at home. Stetson has a 48% chance of beating Kennesaw State.

56. North Carolina Wilmington at Charleston.
Charleston (125) will beat North Carolina Wilmington (294) by 13.7 at home. North Carolina Wilmington has a 4% chance of beating Charleston.

57. Pepperdine at Pacific.
Pacific (204) will beat Pepperdine (304) by 9.5 at home. Pepperdine has a 10% chance of beating Pacific.

58. Wright State at Green Bay.
Wright State (132) will beat Green Bay (299) by 6.6 on the road. Green Bay has a 19% chance of beating Wright State.

59. Rice at Southern Miss.
Southern Miss (220) will beat Rice (312) by 9.4 at home. Rice has a 11% chance of beating Southern Miss.

60. Wofford at Samford.
Wofford (114) will beat Samford (309) by 8.2 on the road. Samford has a 14% chance of beating Wofford.

61. Southeast Missouri State at SIU Edwardsville.
Southeast Missouri State (258) will beat SIU Edwardsville (322) by 1.1 on the road. SIU Edwardsville has a 44% chance of beating Southeast Missouri State.

62. Hartford at Maine.
Hartford (234) will beat Maine (318) by 1.9 on the road. Maine has a 39% chance of beating Hartford.

63. Idaho at Southern Utah.
Idaho (162) will beat Southern Utah (313) by 6.0 on the road. Southern Utah has a 20% chance of beating Idaho.

64. Illinois Chicago at Youngstown State.
Illinois Chicago (264) will beat Youngstown State (327) by 1.4 on the road. Youngstown State has a 42% chance of beating Illinois Chicago.

65. Massachusetts Lowell at Albany.
Albany (143) will beat Massachusetts Lowell (316) by 14.6 at home. Massachusetts Lowell has a 4% chance of beating Albany.

66. Portland at San Diego.
San Diego (100) will beat Portland (328) by 18.4 at home. Portland has a 2% chance of beating San Diego.

67. Mercer at Virginia Military.
Mercer (145) will beat Virginia Military (326) by 8.7 on the road. Virginia Military has a 12% chance of beating Mercer.

68. Santa Clara at San Francisco.
San Francisco (146) will beat Santa Clara (330) by 16.1 at home. Santa Clara has a 3% chance of beating San Francisco.

69. Longwood at Radford.
Radford (161) will beat Longwood (334) by 15.9 at home. Longwood has a 3% chance of beating Radford.

70. Bryant at LIU Brooklyn.
LIU Brooklyn (281) will beat Bryant (338) by 10.1 at home. Bryant has a 9% chance of beating LIU Brooklyn.

71. Citadel at North Carolina Greensboro.
North Carolina Greensboro (93) will beat Citadel (341) by 22.3 at home. Citadel has a 1% chance of beating North Carolina Greensboro.

72. Eastern Washington at Northern Arizona.
Eastern Washington (182) will beat Northern Arizona (335) by 8.0 on the road. Northern Arizona has a 14% chance of beating Eastern Washington.

73. Grand Canyon at Chicago State.
Grand Canyon (129) will beat Chicago State (349) by 14.9 on the road. Chicago State has a 3% chance of beating Grand Canyon.

College Football

These predictions based on the team rankings have predicted the winner in 74.5% of games during the 2016 and 2017 seasons (1133-388). This record does not include any cupcake FBS vs FCS games.

International Soccer

My rankings were a part of an academic study on making football predictions.

Major League Baseball

National Basketball Association

To see an interactive visual with win probabilities before the 2017 playoffs started, click here.