Predictions

Do you need accurate football and March Madness predictions? The Power Rank seeks to make the best possible predictions based on data and computers.

It started with team rankings that take margin of victory and adjust for strength of schedule. Based on my Ph.D. from Stanford, I developed an algorithm that makes these adjustments, and this page contains predictions from these team rankings.

I also create member predictions for college football and the NFL. These predictions use data beyond margin of victory to make more accurate predictions.

I offer a sample of these member predictions and analysis in my free email newsletter. To get these emails, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”








College Football, Week 4

These predictions based on the team rankings have predicted the winner in 74.5% of games during the 2016 and 2017 seasons (1133-388). This record does not include any cupcake FBS vs FCS games.

Members of The Power Rank have access to my best predictions which use more data than points based model below. To learn more, click here.

1. TCU at Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma State (11) will beat TCU (15) by 5.1 at home. TCU has a 35% chance of beating Oklahoma State.

2. Mississippi State at Georgia.
Georgia (20) will beat Mississippi State (23) by 3.4 at home. Mississippi State has a 40% chance of beating Georgia.

3. Texas Tech at Houston.
Houston (30) will beat Texas Tech (34) by 3.8 at home. Texas Tech has a 39% chance of beating Houston.

4. Duke at North Carolina.
North Carolina (37) will beat Duke (38) by 3.3 at home. Duke has a 40% chance of beating North Carolina.

5. Florida at Kentucky.
Kentucky (40) will beat Florida (29) by 0.5 at home. Florida has a 48% chance of beating Kentucky.

6. Penn State at Iowa.
Penn State (5) will beat Iowa (24) by 4.3 on the road. Iowa has a 38% chance of beating Penn State.

7. Washington at Colorado.
Washington (8) will beat Colorado (32) by 4.3 on the road. Colorado has a 37% chance of beating Washington.

8. North Carolina State at Florida State.
Florida State (6) will beat North Carolina State (31) by 11.1 at home. North Carolina State has a 21% chance of beating Florida State.

9. UCLA at Stanford.
Stanford (13) will beat UCLA (43) by 9.6 at home. UCLA has a 24% chance of beating Stanford.

10. Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech.
Georgia Tech (22) will beat Pittsburgh (48) by 8.6 at home. Pittsburgh has a 26% chance of beating Georgia Tech.

11. Alabama at Vanderbilt.
Alabama (1) will beat Vanderbilt (36) by 13.8 on the road. Vanderbilt has a 16% chance of beating Alabama.

12. Arkansas versus Texas A&M at a neutral site.
Texas A&M (27) will beat Arkansas (55) by 6.1 at a neutral site. Arkansas has a 32% chance of beating Texas A&M.

13. USC at California.
USC (10) will beat California (49) by 6.9 on the road. California has a 30% chance of beating USC.

14. Oregon at Arizona State.
Oregon (35) will beat Arizona State (59) by 3.0 on the road. Arizona State has a 41% chance of beating Oregon.

15. Oklahoma at Baylor.
Oklahoma (2) will beat Baylor (44) by 13.5 on the road. Baylor has a 17% chance of beating Oklahoma.

16. Utah at Arizona.
Utah (41) will beat Arizona (65) by 2.6 on the road. Arizona has a 42% chance of beating Utah.

17. Toledo at Miami (FL).
Miami (FL) (14) will beat Toledo (58) by 13.0 at home. Toledo has a 17% chance of beating Miami (FL).

18. Notre Dame at Michigan State.
Notre Dame (26) will beat Michigan State (64) by 5.0 on the road. Michigan State has a 35% chance of beating Notre Dame.

19. Syracuse at LSU.
LSU (17) will beat Syracuse (61) by 12.6 at home. Syracuse has a 18% chance of beating LSU.

20. UCF at Maryland.
Maryland (57) will beat UCF (72) by 7.2 at home. UCF has a 30% chance of beating Maryland.

21. Temple at South Florida.
South Florida (46) will beat Temple (71) by 9.0 at home. Temple has a 25% chance of beating South Florida.

22. Wake Forest at Appalachian State.
Wake Forest (52) will beat Appalachian State (76) by 2.5 on the road. Appalachian State has a 42% chance of beating Wake Forest.

23. San Diego State at Air Force.
San Diego State (56) will beat Air Force (80) by 2.5 on the road. Air Force has a 43% chance of beating San Diego State.

24. Virginia at Boise State.
Boise State (50) will beat Virginia (78) by 9.3 at home. Virginia has a 25% chance of beating Boise State.

25. Michigan at Purdue.
Michigan (12) will beat Purdue (70) by 11.1 on the road. Purdue has a 21% chance of beating Michigan.

26. Arkansas State at SMU.
SMU (83) will beat Arkansas State (89) by 4.8 at home. Arkansas State has a 36% chance of beating SMU.

27. Boston College at Clemson.
Clemson (3) will beat Boston College (84) by 27.9 at home. Boston College has a 3% chance of beating Clemson.

28. Miami (OH) at Central Michigan.
Central Michigan (81) will beat Miami (OH) (91) by 5.9 at home. Miami (OH) has a 33% chance of beating Central Michigan.

29. Auburn at Missouri.
Auburn (7) will beat Missouri (79) by 15.4 on the road. Missouri has a 14% chance of beating Auburn.

30. Louisiana Tech at South Carolina.
South Carolina (51) will beat Louisiana Tech (87) by 11.2 at home. Louisiana Tech has a 21% chance of beating South Carolina.

31. Army at Tulane.
Army (77) will beat Tulane (93) by 1.0 on the road. Tulane has a 47% chance of beating Army.

32. Hawaii at Wyoming.
Wyoming (75) will beat Hawaii (94) by 7.3 at home. Hawaii has a 29% chance of beating Wyoming.

33. Louisiana Monroe at Louisiana Lafayette.
Louisiana Lafayette (109) will beat Louisiana Monroe (112) by 3.5 at home. Louisiana Monroe has a 40% chance of beating Louisiana Lafayette.

34. Florida Atlantic at Buffalo.
Buffalo (106) will beat Florida Atlantic (96) by 1.2 at home. Florida Atlantic has a 46% chance of beating Buffalo.

35. Ohio at Eastern Michigan.
Ohio (86) will beat Eastern Michigan (102) by 0.3 on the road. Eastern Michigan has a 49% chance of beating Ohio.

36. Ball State at Western Kentucky.
Western Kentucky (73) will beat Ball State (95) by 8.2 at home. Ball State has a 27% chance of beating Western Kentucky.

37. Utah State at San Jose State.
San Jose State (115) will beat Utah State (116) by 3.1 at home. Utah State has a 41% chance of beating San Jose State.

38. Rutgers at Nebraska.
Nebraska (60) will beat Rutgers (92) by 10.6 at home. Rutgers has a 22% chance of beating Nebraska.

39. Cincinnati at Navy.
Navy (67) will beat Cincinnati (98) by 10.3 at home. Cincinnati has a 22% chance of beating Navy.

40. New Mexico at Tulsa.
Tulsa (68) will beat New Mexico (101) by 10.5 at home. New Mexico has a 22% chance of beating Tulsa.

41. Old Dominion at Virginia Tech.
Virginia Tech (16) will beat Old Dominion (97) by 21.6 at home. Old Dominion has a 7% chance of beating Virginia Tech.

42. UNLV at Ohio State.
Ohio State (4) will beat UNLV (110) by 28.9 at home. UNLV has a 3% chance of beating Ohio State.

43. Idaho at South Alabama.
South Alabama (99) will beat Idaho (119) by 7.3 at home. Idaho has a 29% chance of beating South Alabama.

44. West Virginia at Kansas.
West Virginia (47) will beat Kansas (105) by 9.9 on the road. Kansas has a 23% chance of beating West Virginia.

45. Bowling Green at Middle Tennessee State.
Middle Tennessee State (108) will beat Bowling Green (123) by 7.1 at home. Bowling Green has a 30% chance of beating Middle Tennessee State.

46. UAB at North Texas.
North Texas (122) will beat UAB (126) by 5.8 at home. UAB has a 33% chance of beating North Texas.

47. Georgia Southern at Indiana.
Indiana (54) will beat Georgia Southern (111) by 15.6 at home. Georgia Southern has a 13% chance of beating Indiana.

48. Nevada at Washington State.
Washington State (18) will beat Nevada (114) by 23.9 at home. Nevada has a 5% chance of beating Washington State.

49. Massachusetts at Tennessee.
Tennessee (28) will beat Massachusetts (113) by 22.2 at home. Massachusetts has a 7% chance of beating Tennessee.

50. Florida International at Rice.
Rice (125) will beat Florida International (128) by 6.3 at home. Florida International has a 32% chance of beating Rice.

51. Akron at Troy.
Troy (53) will beat Akron (121) by 17.6 at home. Akron has a 11% chance of beating Troy.

52. Kent State at Louisville.
Louisville (19) will beat Kent State (124) by 27.5 at home. Kent State has a 4% chance of beating Louisville.

53. UTSA at Texas State.
UTSA (74) will beat Texas State (127) by 11.7 on the road. Texas State has a 20% chance of beating UTSA.

54. UTEP at New Mexico State.
New Mexico State (117) will beat UTEP (129) by 12.1 at home. UTEP has a 19% chance of beating New Mexico State.

55. Georgia State at Charlotte.
Georgia State (107) will beat Charlotte (130) by 9.1 on the road. Charlotte has a 25% chance of beating Georgia State.

NFL, Week 3

These predictions come from preseason rankings based on market values. To learn more about these numbers and the corresponding win totals, click here.

1. Tampa Bay at Minnesota.
Minnesota (16) will beat Tampa Bay (14) by 2.2 at home. Tampa Bay has a 44% chance of beating Minnesota.

2. Dallas at Arizona.
Arizona (13) will beat Dallas (7) by 0.4 at home. Dallas has a 49% chance of beating Arizona.

3. New York Giants at Philadelphia.
Philadelphia (15) will beat New York Giants (10) by 1.0 at home. New York Giants has a 47% chance of beating Philadelphia.

4. Seattle at Tennessee.
Seattle (3) will beat Tennessee (12) by 1.1 on the road. Tennessee has a 47% chance of beating Seattle.

5. New Orleans at Carolina.
Carolina (11) will beat New Orleans (20) by 4.6 at home. New Orleans has a 37% chance of beating Carolina.

6. Kansas City at Los Angeles Chargers.
Kansas City (8) will beat Los Angeles Chargers (22) by 0.5 on the road. Los Angeles Chargers has a 49% chance of beating Kansas City.

7. Cincinnati at Green Bay.
Green Bay (4) will beat Cincinnati (18) by 7.4 at home. Cincinnati has a 30% chance of beating Green Bay.

8. Denver at Buffalo.
Buffalo (26) will beat Denver (17) by 0.9 at home. Denver has a 47% chance of beating Buffalo.

9. Oakland at Washington.
Oakland (6) will beat Washington (24) by 1.5 on the road. Washington has a 46% chance of beating Oakland.

10. Atlanta at Detroit.
Atlanta (5) will beat Detroit (23) by 2.2 on the road. Detroit has a 44% chance of beating Atlanta.

11. Houston at New England.
New England (1) will beat Houston (21) by 11.3 at home. Houston has a 22% chance of beating New England.

12. Baltimore versus Jacksonville at a neutral site.
Baltimore (9) will beat Jacksonville (27) by 4.7 at a neutral site. Jacksonville has a 37% chance of beating Baltimore.

13. Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco.
San Francisco (30) will beat Los Angeles Rams (29) by 1.8 at home. Los Angeles Rams has a 45% chance of beating San Francisco.

14. Pittsburgh at Chicago.
Pittsburgh (2) will beat Chicago (28) by 6.7 on the road. Chicago has a 32% chance of beating Pittsburgh.

15. Miami at New York Jets.
Miami (25) will beat New York Jets (31) by 2.6 on the road. New York Jets has a 43% chance of beating Miami.

16. Cleveland at Indianapolis.
Indianapolis (19) will beat Cleveland (32) by 8.7 at home. Cleveland has a 28% chance of beating Indianapolis.

Major League Baseball

The matchup shows the projected FIP (adjusted ERA) for each starting pitcher according to ZiPS.

The integer in parentheses gives the team’s rank in The Power Rank.

These predictions are accurate compared to the markets early in the season, but this accuracy drops significantly at this point in the season.

Games on Saturday, September 23, 2017.

St. Louis (Lance Lynn, 4.47) at Pittsburgh (Gerrit Cole, 3.75).
St. Louis (10) has a 52.5 chance to beat Pittsburgh (23).

Philadelphia (Henderson Alvarez, 5.03) at Atlanta (Julio Teheran, 4.37).
Atlanta (22) has a 59.2 chance to beat Philadelphia (29).

Washington (Stephen Strasburg, 2.87) at New York Mets (Noah Syndergaard, 2.60).
Washington (8) has a 58.3 chance to beat New York Mets (25).

Chicago Cubs (Kyle Hendricks, 3.73) at Milwaukee (Brent Suter, 4.24).
Chicago Cubs (6) has a 58.3 chance to beat Milwaukee (14).

Miami (Dillon Peters, 4.37) at Arizona (Taijuan Walker, 4.25).
Arizona (5) has a 62.4 chance to beat Miami (20).

Colorado (Chad Bettis, 4.52) at San Diego (Jhoulys Chacin, 4.38).
Colorado (16) has a 55.5 chance to beat San Diego (30).

San Francisco (Madison Bumgarner, 3.31) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Hyun-Jin Ryu, 4.10).
Los Angeles Dodgers (4) has a 60.6 chance to beat San Francisco (26).

New York Yankees (Sonny Gray, 3.93) at Toronto (Joe Biagini, 4.08).
New York Yankees (2) has a 64.0 chance to beat Toronto (18).

Cleveland (Carlos Carrasco, 3.21) at Seattle (Andrew Moore, 4.86).
Cleveland (1) has a 71.4 chance to beat Seattle (11).

Tampa Bay (Jake Odorizzi, 4.50) at Baltimore (Jeremy Hellickson, 4.97).
Tampa Bay (9) has a 60.1 chance to beat Baltimore (21).

Minnesota (Ervin Santana, 4.41) at Detroit (Matt Boyd, 4.50).
Minnesota (17) has a 53.6 chance to beat Detroit (24).

Kansas City (Danny Duffy, 3.70) at Chicago White Sox (Dylan Covey, 6.40).
Kansas City (19) has a 70.5 chance to beat Chicago White Sox (27).

Los Angeles Angels (Bud Norris, 4.32) at Houston (Charlie Morton, 3.96).
Houston (3) has a 65.5 chance to beat Los Angeles Angels (15).

Texas (Miguel Gonzalez, 4.76) at Oakland (Sean Manaea, 3.93).
Oakland (12) has a 57.4 chance to beat Texas (13).

Boston (Eduardo Rodriguez, 4.08) at Cincinnati (Robert Stephenson, 5.34).
Boston (7) has a 69.8 chance to beat Cincinnati (28).

International Soccer

My rankings were a part of an academic study on making football predictions.

NFL Draft

To check out my wisdom of crowds predictions for the 2017 NFL Draft, click here.

College Basketball, Tournament Games

To see the tourney win probability for each team in an interactive bracket, click here.

National Basketball Association

To see an interactive visual with win probabilities before the 2017 playoffs started, click here.