Predictions

The Power Rank uses data and analytics to make accurate predictions for football and March Madness. I developed these methods based on my Ph.D. in applied math from Stanford.

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NFL, Week 3

These numbers combine a preseason market model with adjustments based on how teams performed against the spread the first two weeks.

Members of The Power Rank have access to more accurate predictions based on more sources of data. To learn more, click here.

3. Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay.
Pittsburgh (8) will beat Tampa Bay (18) by 0.4 on the road. Tampa Bay has a 49% chance of beating Pittsburgh.

Major League Baseball

The matchup shows the projected FIP (adjusted ERA) for each starting pitcher according to ZiPS. The integer in parentheses gives the team’s rank in The Power Rank.

Since Apr 09, 2018, the team with the higher win probability has won 1281 of 2208 games for a win percentage of 58.0%.

The team favored by the markets has won 1289.5 of 2208 games for a win percentage of 58.4%.

Games on Tuesday, September 25, 2018.

Using replacement level fip for Jeff Brigham
Miami (Jeff Brigham, 5.00) at Washington (Max Scherzer, 2.89).
Washington (6) has a 78.4 chance to beat Miami (26).

Atlanta (Touki Toussaint, 5.31) at New York Mets (Noah Syndergaard, 2.72).
New York Mets (16) has a 64.3 chance to beat Atlanta (8).

Pittsburgh (Chris Archer, 3.41) at Chicago Cubs (Mike Montgomery, 4.23).
Chicago Cubs (7) has a 52.2 chance to beat Pittsburgh (18).

Milwaukee (Gio Gonzalez, 4.11) at St. Louis (Austin Gomber, 4.49).
Milwaukee (10) has a 52.4 chance to beat St. Louis (11).

Philadelphia (Vince Velasquez, 3.92) at Colorado (Chad Bettis, 4.90).
Philadelphia (17) has a 52.4 chance to beat Colorado (12).

Los Angeles Dodgers (Walker Buehler, 3.42) at Arizona (Matt Koch, 5.38).
Los Angeles Dodgers (2) has a 70.2 chance to beat Arizona (13).

San Diego (Robbie Erlin, 4.03) at San Francisco (Chris Stratton, 4.52).
San Francisco (20) has a 51.8 chance to beat San Diego (22).

Houston (Josh James, 5.06) at Toronto (Sam Gaviglio, 4.98).
Houston (1) has a 66.2 chance to beat Toronto (23).

Baltimore (Jimmy Yacabonis, 5.19) at Boston (David Price, 3.67).
Boston (3) has a 80.1 chance to beat Baltimore (29).

New York Yankees (Luis Severino, 3.04) at Tampa Bay (Jake Faria, 4.30).
New York Yankees (4) has a 59.8 chance to beat Tampa Bay (5).

Detroit (Spencer Turnbull, 4.74) at Minnesota (Kohl Stewart, 5.29).
Minnesota (24) has a 50.8 chance to beat Detroit (28).

Cleveland (Trevor Bauer, 3.23) at Chicago White Sox (James Shields, 5.24).
Cleveland (14) has a 73.6 chance to beat Chicago White Sox (27).

Texas (Yovani Gallardo, 5.32) at Los Angeles Angels (Matt Shoemaker, 4.00).
Los Angeles Angels (19) has a 67.1 chance to beat Texas (25).

Oakland (Brett Anderson, 4.13) at Seattle (Mike Leake, 4.05).
Oakland (9) has a 52.9 chance to beat Seattle (15).

Kansas City (Eric Skoglund, 5.00) at Cincinnati (Matt Harvey, 4.64).
Cincinnati (21) has a 63.6 chance to beat Kansas City (30).

College Football, Week 4

These predictions based on adjusted margin of victory have predicted the winner in 74.5% of games during the 2016 and 2017 seasons (1133-388). This record does not include any cupcake FBS vs FCS games.

Starting with week 4, the predictions now use data from the 2018 season.

Predictions for members also use data from the markets as well as efficiency metrics.  To learn more, click here.

1. East Carolina at South Florida.
South Florida (40) will beat East Carolina (42) by 3.1 at home. East Carolina has a 41% chance of beating South Florida. Yes, this prediction underestimates the spread due to small sample size of games this season.

2. Wisconsin at Iowa.
Wisconsin (9) will beat Iowa (24) by 3.8 on the road. Iowa has a 39% chance of beating Wisconsin.

3. Washington State at USC.
USC (46) will beat Washington State (43) by 2.7 at home. Washington State has a 42% chance of beating USC.

4. Notre Dame at Wake Forest.
Notre Dame (10) will beat Wake Forest (27) by 3.7 on the road. Wake Forest has a 39% chance of beating Notre Dame.

5. Louisville at Virginia.
Louisville (26) will beat Virginia (37) by 0.0 on the road. Virginia has a 50% chance of beating Louisville.

6. Michigan State at Indiana.
Michigan State (25) will beat Indiana (41) by 1.2 on the road. Indiana has a 46% chance of beating Michigan State.

7. Pittsburgh at North Carolina.
North Carolina (32) will beat Pittsburgh (51) by 5.8 at home. Pittsburgh has a 33% chance of beating North Carolina.

8. Texas A&M at Alabama.
Alabama (1) will beat Texas A&M (13) by 19.5 at home. Texas A&M has a 9% chance of beating Alabama.

9. TCU at Texas.
TCU (11) will beat Texas (35) by 5.4 on the road. Texas has a 34% chance of beating TCU.

10. Texas Tech at Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma State (6) will beat Texas Tech (38) by 16.3 at home. Texas Tech has a 12% chance of beating Oklahoma State.

11. Clemson at Georgia Tech.
Clemson (3) will beat Georgia Tech (34) by 14.1 on the road. Georgia Tech has a 16% chance of beating Clemson.

12. Boston College at Purdue.
Boston College (18) will beat Purdue (52) by 5.8 on the road. Purdue has a 33% chance of beating Boston College.

13. Georgia at Missouri.
Georgia (2) will beat Missouri (39) by 17.1 on the road. Missouri has a 11% chance of beating Georgia.

14. North Carolina State at Marshall.
Marshall (65) will beat North Carolina State (53) by 0.0 at home. North Carolina State has a 50% chance of beating Marshall.

15. South Carolina at Vanderbilt.
South Carolina (28) will beat Vanderbilt (58) by 4.1 on the road. Vanderbilt has a 38% chance of beating South Carolina.

16. Stanford at Oregon.
Stanford (17) will beat Oregon (56) by 6.6 on the road. Oregon has a 31% chance of beating Stanford.

17. Kansas State at West Virginia.
West Virginia (45) will beat Kansas State (63) by 7.4 at home. Kansas State has a 29% chance of beating West Virginia.

18. Louisiana Tech at LSU.
LSU (22) will beat Louisiana Tech (61) by 13.2 at home. Louisiana Tech has a 17% chance of beating LSU.

19. Arizona State at Washington.
Washington (12) will beat Arizona State (60) by 16.2 at home. Arizona State has a 12% chance of beating Washington.

20. Tulsa at Temple.
Temple (76) will beat Tulsa (85) by 4.5 at home. Tulsa has a 37% chance of beating Temple.

21. Ohio at Cincinnati.
Cincinnati (86) will beat Ohio (75) by 1.4 at home. Ohio has a 46% chance of beating Cincinnati.

22. Mississippi State at Kentucky.
Mississippi State (15) will beat Kentucky (64) by 9.2 on the road. Kentucky has a 25% chance of beating Mississippi State.

23. Army at Oklahoma.
Oklahoma (7) will beat Army (62) by 20.3 at home. Army has a 8% chance of beating Oklahoma.

24. Nebraska at Michigan.
Michigan (16) will beat Nebraska (67) by 16.0 at home. Nebraska has a 13% chance of beating Michigan.

25. Penn State at Illinois.
Penn State (4) will beat Illinois (79) by 22.6 on the road. Illinois has a 6% chance of beating Penn State.

26. Akron at Iowa State.
Iowa State (36) will beat Akron (78) by 11.4 at home. Akron has a 20% chance of beating Iowa State.

27. Eastern Michigan at San Diego State.
San Diego State (68) will beat Eastern Michigan (88) by 6.6 at home. Eastern Michigan has a 31% chance of beating San Diego State.

28. Minnesota at Maryland.
Minnesota (50) will beat Maryland (82) by 4.1 on the road. Maryland has a 38% chance of beating Minnesota.

29. Tulane at Ohio State.
Ohio State (5) will beat Tulane (80) by 27.3 at home. Tulane has a 4% chance of beating Ohio State.

30. Troy at Louisiana Monroe.
Louisiana Monroe (97) will beat Troy (92) by 2.2 at home. Troy has a 43% chance of beating Louisiana Monroe.

31. Arkansas at Auburn.
Auburn (8) will beat Arkansas (84) by 22.7 at home. Arkansas has a 6% chance of beating Auburn.

32. Navy at SMU.
Navy (73) will beat SMU (91) by 0.9 on the road. SMU has a 47% chance of beating Navy.

33. Northern Illinois at Florida State.
Florida State (77) will beat Northern Illinois (94) by 6.8 at home. Northern Illinois has a 31% chance of beating Florida State.

34. Kansas at Baylor.
Baylor (31) will beat Kansas (89) by 15.1 at home. Kansas has a 14% chance of beating Baylor.

35. Florida Atlantic at UCF.
UCF (23) will beat Florida Atlantic (90) by 18.1 at home. Florida Atlantic has a 10% chance of beating UCF.

36. Air Force at Utah State.
Utah State (81) will beat Air Force (100) by 8.0 at home. Air Force has a 28% chance of beating Utah State.

37. Nevada at Toledo.
Toledo (101) will beat Nevada (109) by 4.7 at home. Nevada has a 36% chance of beating Toledo.

38. Charlotte at Massachusetts.
Massachusetts (104) will beat Charlotte (112) by 4.6 at home. Charlotte has a 37% chance of beating Massachusetts.

39. Buffalo at Rutgers.
Buffalo (70) will beat Rutgers (99) by 3.1 on the road. Rutgers has a 41% chance of beating Buffalo.

40. Florida International at Miami (FL).
Miami (FL) (29) will beat Florida International (93) by 16.8 at home. Florida International has a 12% chance of beating Miami (FL).

41. South Alabama at Memphis.
Memphis (49) will beat South Alabama (98) by 14.7 at home. South Alabama has a 15% chance of beating Memphis.

42. Western Kentucky at Ball State.
Western Kentucky (96) will beat Ball State (114) by 1.4 on the road. Ball State has a 46% chance of beating Western Kentucky.

43. Florida at Tennessee.
Florida (59) will beat Tennessee (103) by 7.3 on the road. Tennessee has a 30% chance of beating Florida.

44. Arizona at Oregon State.
Arizona (47) will beat Oregon State (102) by 10.2 on the road. Oregon State has a 23% chance of beating Arizona.

45. Texas State at UTSA.
UTSA (121) will beat Texas State (124) by 5.2 at home. Texas State has a 35% chance of beating UTSA.

46. North Texas at Liberty.
North Texas (74) will beat Liberty (116) by 6.2 on the road. Liberty has a 32% chance of beating North Texas.

47. Virginia Tech at Old Dominion.
Virginia Tech (44) will beat Old Dominion (115) by 12.8 on the road. Old Dominion has a 18% chance of beating Virginia Tech.

48. UNLV at Arkansas State.
Arkansas State (72) will beat UNLV (119) by 13.6 at home. UNLV has a 16% chance of beating Arkansas State.

49. Rice at Southern Miss.
Southern Miss (118) will beat Rice (125) by 8.3 at home. Rice has a 27% chance of beating Southern Miss.

50. Kent State at Mississippi.
Mississippi (33) will beat Kent State (120) by 22.8 at home. Kent State has a 6% chance of beating Mississippi.

51. Western Michigan at Georgia State.
Western Michigan (108) will beat Georgia State (127) by 5.5 on the road. Georgia State has a 34% chance of beating Western Michigan.

52. Miami (OH) at Bowling Green.
Miami (OH) (106) will beat Bowling Green (126) by 6.3 on the road. Bowling Green has a 32% chance of beating Miami (OH).

53. Coastal Carolina at Louisiana.
Coastal Carolina (111) will beat Louisiana (129) by 8.3 on the road. Louisiana has a 27% chance of beating Coastal Carolina.

54. Connecticut at Syracuse.
Syracuse (66) will beat Connecticut (128) by 22.0 at home. Connecticut has a 7% chance of beating Syracuse.

55. New Mexico State at UTEP.
New Mexico State (123) will beat UTEP (130) by 9.2 on the road. UTEP has a 25% chance of beating New Mexico State.

NFL Draft by Wisdom of Crowds

To check out my wisdom of crowds predictions for the 2018 NFL Draft, click here.

International Soccer/Football

My rankings were a part of an academic study on making football predictions.

College Basketball

National Basketball Association

To get details on my NBA model for 2018 and series win win probability before the NBA Finals, click here.