Predictions

The Power Rank uses data and analytics to make accurate predictions for football and March Madness. I developed these methods based on my PhD in applied math from Stanford.

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College Football, Championship Week

These predictions are a combination of my preseason model and team rankings (margin of victory adjusted for strength of schedule) from this year.

Members of The Power Rank have access to more accurate predictions. To learn more, click here.

1. Oregon versus Utah at a neutral site.
Utah (9) will beat Oregon (15) by 2.9 at a neutral site. Oregon has a 41% chance of beating Utah.

2. Georgia versus LSU at a neutral site.
LSU (3) will beat Georgia (5) by 5.5 at a neutral site. Georgia has a 34% chance of beating LSU.

3. Oklahoma versus Baylor at a neutral site.
Oklahoma (6) will beat Baylor (14) by 4.6 at a neutral site. Baylor has a 37% chance of beating Oklahoma.

4. Ohio State versus Wisconsin at a neutral site.
Ohio State (1) will beat Wisconsin (12) by 15.3 at a neutral site. Wisconsin has a 14% chance of beating Ohio State.

5. Cincinnati at Memphis.
Memphis (24) will beat Cincinnati (40) by 7.1 at home. Cincinnati has a 30% chance of beating Memphis.

6. Virginia versus Clemson at a neutral site.
Clemson (2) will beat Virginia (30) by 19.9 at a neutral site. Virginia has a 8% chance of beating Clemson.

7. Louisiana versus Appalachian State at a neutral site.
Appalachian State (25) will beat Louisiana (56) by 8.2 at a neutral site. Louisiana has a 27% chance of beating Appalachian State.

8. Hawaii at Boise State.
Boise State (29) will beat Hawaii (80) by 13.0 at home. Hawaii has a 17% chance of beating Boise State.

9. UAB at Florida Atlantic.
Florida Atlantic (51) will beat UAB (92) by 11.0 at home. UAB has a 21% chance of beating Florida Atlantic.

10. Miami (OH) versus Central Michigan at a neutral site.
Central Michigan (93) will beat Miami (OH) (110) by 3.2 at a neutral site. Miami (OH) has a 40% chance of beating Central Michigan.

NFL, Week 14

These predictions are based on my team rankings that take margin of victory in games and adjust for schedule. There is also a preseason component whose weight diminishes with every week.

Members of The Power Rank have access to more accurate predictions. To learn more, click here.

1. Kansas City at New England.
New England (2) will beat Kansas City (4) by 4.1 at home. Kansas City has a 37% chance of beating New England.

2. Seattle at Los Angeles Rams.
Los Angeles Rams (7) will beat Seattle (5) by 1.2 at home. Seattle has a 46% chance of beating Los Angeles Rams.

3. San Francisco at New Orleans.
San Francisco (3) will beat New Orleans (6) by 1.1 on the road. New Orleans has a 47% chance of beating San Francisco.

4. Dallas at Chicago.
Chicago (18) will beat Dallas (13) by 0.1 at home. Dallas has a 50% chance of beating Chicago.

5. Indianapolis at Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay (21) will beat Indianapolis (19) by 0.8 at home. Indianapolis has a 47% chance of beating Tampa Bay.

6. Carolina at Atlanta.
Atlanta (22) will beat Carolina (20) by 0.9 at home. Carolina has a 47% chance of beating Atlanta.

7. Baltimore at Buffalo.
Baltimore (1) will beat Buffalo (14) by 4.8 on the road. Buffalo has a 35% chance of beating Baltimore.

8. Denver at Houston.
Houston (12) will beat Denver (23) by 5.7 at home. Denver has a 32% chance of beating Houston.

9. Detroit at Minnesota.
Minnesota (8) will beat Detroit (24) by 7.9 at home. Detroit has a 26% chance of beating Minnesota.

10. Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville.
Los Angeles Chargers (17) will beat Jacksonville (26) by 2.6 on the road. Jacksonville has a 42% chance of beating Los Angeles Chargers.

11. Pittsburgh at Arizona.
Pittsburgh (9) will beat Arizona (25) by 4.2 on the road. Arizona has a 37% chance of beating Pittsburgh.

12. Tennessee at Oakland.
Tennessee (15) will beat Oakland (27) by 3.2 on the road. Oakland has a 40% chance of beating Tennessee.

13. Cincinnati at Cleveland.
Cleveland (11) will beat Cincinnati (29) by 9.9 at home. Cincinnati has a 22% chance of beating Cleveland.

14. Miami at New York Jets.
New York Jets (28) will beat Miami (32) by 4.6 at home. Miami has a 35% chance of beating New York Jets.

15. Washington at Green Bay.
Green Bay (10) will beat Washington (30) by 10.3 at home. Washington has a 21% chance of beating Green Bay.

16. New York Giants at Philadelphia.
Philadelphia (16) will beat New York Giants (31) by 9.8 at home. New York Giants has a 22% chance of beating Philadelphia.

Major League Baseball

The matchup shows the projected FIP (adjusted ERA) for each starting pitcher according to ZiPS.

The integer in parentheses gives the team’s rank in The Power Rank, which now include data from the current season.

From Apr 10, 2019 through the World Series, the team with the higher win probability has won 1381 of 2329 games for a win percentage of 59.3%.

The team favored by the markets has won 1403.0 of 2329 games for a win percentage of 60.2%.

World Soccer Football

College basketball

These college basketball predictions come from my points based team rankings.

National Basketball Association

To get details on my NBA model for 2018 and series win win probability before the NBA Finals, click here.