Predictions

The Power Rank uses data and analytics to make accurate predictions for football and March Madness. I developed these methods based on my PhD in applied math from Stanford.

My college football win totals report comes out in July, 2019. These predictions are based on a preseason model which has predicted the game winner in 70.1% of games (2560-1090) the past 5 seasons. 

To get this report, sign up for my free email newsletter.

Enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”








 

 
 

Major League Baseball

The matchup shows the projected FIP (adjusted ERA) for each starting pitcher according to ZiPS.

The integer in parentheses gives the team’s rank in The Power Rank, which now include data from the current season.

Since Apr 10, 2019, the team with the higher win probability has won 720 of 1241 games for a win percentage of 58.0%.

The team favored by the markets has won 740.0 of 1241 games for a win percentage of 59.6%.

Games on Monday, July 15, 2019.

Los Angeles Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw, 3.25) at Philadelphia (Zach Eflin, 4.50).
Los Angeles Dodgers (1) has a 76.6 chance to beat Philadelphia (22).

Cincinnati (Luis Castillo, 3.99) at Chicago Cubs (Kyle Hendricks, 3.86).
Chicago Cubs (5) has a 57.4 chance to beat Cincinnati (13).

Atlanta (Max Fried, 4.27) at Milwaukee (Adrian Houser, 5.13).
Atlanta (9) has a 56.2 chance to beat Milwaukee (11).

Pittsburgh (Joe Musgrove, 3.88) at St. Louis (Miles Mikolas, 3.99).
St. Louis (15) has a 52.8 chance to beat Pittsburgh (20).

Using replacement level fip for
San Francisco (Dereck Rodriguez, 4.62) at Colorado (, 5.00).
Colorado (19) has a 53.6 chance to beat San Francisco (24).

Tampa Bay (Blake Snell, 3.38) at New York Yankees (James Paxton, 3.47).
Tampa Bay (4) has a 52.3 chance to beat New York Yankees (6).

Toronto (Trent Thornton, 4.61) at Boston (Rick Porcello, 4.34).
Boston (7) has a 68.3 chance to beat Toronto (26).

Detroit (Daniel Norris, 4.44) at Cleveland (Adam Plutko, 5.16).
Cleveland (16) has a 61.6 chance to beat Detroit (30).

Chicago White Sox (Lucas Giolito, 4.58) at Kansas City (Jakob Junis, 4.64).
Kansas City (27) has a 51.6 chance to beat Chicago White Sox (28).

Using replacement level fip for Josh James
Houston (Josh James, 5.00) at Los Angeles Angels (Griffin Canning, 4.65).
Houston (2) has a 58.4 chance to beat Los Angeles Angels (14).

San Francisco (Jeff Samardzija, 4.38) at Colorado (German Marquez, 3.75).
Colorado (19) has a 60.7 chance to beat San Francisco (24).

World Soccer Football

The probabilities below apply results in regulation, not extra time. To check out my rankings of men’s international teams, click here.

Sunday, July 14, 2019

Tunisia vs Senegal:

Senegal has a 45.4% chance to win. Tunisia has a 29.5% chance to win. There is a 25.1% chance for a tie.

Senegal has a 58.0% chance to advance. Tunisia has a 42.0% chance to advance.

Nigeria vs Algeria:

Nigeria has a 41.3% chance to win. Algeria has a 33.7% chance to win. There is a 24.9% chance for a tie.

Algeria has a 46.1% chance to advance. Nigeria has a 53.9% chance to advance.

NFL

College Football

These predictions based on adjusted margin of victory have predicted the winner in 74.5% of games straight up during the 2016 and 2017 seasons (1133-388). This record does not include any cupcake FBS vs FCS games.

College basketball

These college basketball predictions come from my points based team rankings.

National Basketball Association

To get details on my NBA model for 2018 and series win win probability before the NBA Finals, click here.