Do you need accurate football and March Madness predictions? The Power Rank seeks to make the best possible predictions based on data and computers.
It started with team rankings that take margin of victory and adjust for strength of schedule. Back in 2008, I developed an algorithm that makes these adjustments.
Each year, I release a college football win totals report. These numbers are based on my preseason ranking which have predicted the game winner in 70.8% of games (1452-598 with no prediction in 235 games) over the past 3 seasons.
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Major League Baseball
The matchup shows the projected FIP (adjusted ERA) for each starting pitcher according to ZiPS.
The integer in parentheses gives the team’s rank in The Power Rank.
These predictions are accurate compared to the markets early in the season, but this accuracy drops significantly at this point in the season.
Games on Friday, August 18, 2017.
St. Louis (Carlos Martinez, 3.71) at Pittsburgh (Trevor Williams, 4.30).
St. Louis (9) has a 60.5 chance to beat Pittsburgh (19).
Miami (Justin Nicolino, 4.63) at New York Mets (Chris Flexen, 5.26).
Miami (11) has a 58.5 chance to beat New York Mets (24).
Cincinnati (Sal Romano, 4.87) at Atlanta (R.A. Dickey, 4.77).
Atlanta (21) has a 55.0 chance to beat Cincinnati (27).
Milwaukee (Matt Garza, 4.78) at Colorado (German Marquez, 4.43).
Colorado (14) has a 54.5 chance to beat Milwaukee (15).
Washington (Max Scherzer, 2.94) at San Diego (Luis Perdomo, 4.57).
Washington (5) has a 74.6 chance to beat San Diego (30).
Philadelphia (Zach Eflin, 4.96) at San Francisco (Matt Moore, 4.25).
San Francisco (26) has a 57.7 chance to beat Philadelphia (29).
Los Angeles Angels (Andrew Heaney, 3.89) at Baltimore (Jeremy Hellickson, 4.60).
Los Angeles Angels (17) has a 55.7 chance to beat Baltimore (22).
Seattle (Erasmo Ramirez, 4.67) at Tampa Bay (Austin Pruitt, 4.34).
Tampa Bay (10) has a 58.2 chance to beat Seattle (13).
New York Yankees (Jordan Montgomery, 4.43) at Boston (Drew Pomeranz, 3.73).
Boston (8) has a 51.2 chance to beat New York Yankees (3).
Chicago White Sox (James Shields, 5.25) at Texas (Andrew Cashner, 4.56).
Texas (12) has a 63.1 chance to beat Chicago White Sox (28).
Oakland (Sean Manaea, 3.86) at Houston (Dallas Keuchel, 3.57).
Houston (2) has a 67.6 chance to beat Oakland (16).
Cleveland (Corey Kluber, 2.88) at Kansas City (Ian Kennedy, 4.62).
Cleveland (4) has a 71.3 chance to beat Kansas City (18).
Toronto (J.A. Happ, 4.06) at Chicago Cubs (Jake Arrieta, 3.59).
Chicago Cubs (7) has a 64.8 chance to beat Toronto (23).
Los Angeles Dodgers (Rich Hill, 3.76) at Detroit (Jordan Zimmermann, 4.66).
Los Angeles Dodgers (1) has a 71.0 chance to beat Detroit (20).
Arizona (Zack Godley, 3.77) at Minnesota (Ervin Santana, 4.46).
Arizona (6) has a 66.0 chance to beat Minnesota (25).
International Soccer
My rankings were a part of an academic study on making football predictions.
NFL Draft
To check out my wisdom of crowds predictions for the 2017 NFL Draft, click here.
College Basketball, Tournament Games
To see the tourney win probability for each team in an interactive bracket, click here.
College Football
During the 2016 season, these college football predictions predicted the winner in 72.7% of games (550-206).
During the 2015 season, these college football predictions predicted the winner in 76.2% of games (583-182).
These record do not include any cupcake FBS vs FCS games.
National Basketball Association
To see an interactive visual with win probabilities before the 2017 playoffs started, click here.
