Predictions

The Power Rank uses data and analytics to make accurate predictions for football and March Madness. I developed these methods based on my Ph.D. in applied math from Stanford.

To get a sample of my best predictions usually reserved for paying members of the site, sign up for my free email newsletter. You’ll also get my cheat sheet for bowl season and March Madness.

To get this free service, enter your best email and click on “Sign up now!”








 

 
 

NFL, Week 11

These numbers are based on my NFL team rankings which take margin of victory and adjust for strength of schedule. I also keep a preseason component whose weight diminishes with each passing week.

Members of The Power Rank have access to more accurate predictions based on additional sources of data such as the markets and yards per play. To learn more, click here.

1. Kansas City at Los Angeles Rams.
Los Angeles Rams (3) will beat Kansas City (2) by 2.0 at home. Kansas City has a 44% chance of beating Los Angeles Rams.

College Football, Week 12

These predictions based on adjusted margin of victory have predicted the winner in 74.5% of games straight up during the 2016 and 2017 seasons (1133-388). This record does not include any cupcake FBS vs FCS games.

Predictions for members also use data from the markets as well as efficiency metrics.  To learn more, click here.

1. LSU at Texas A&M.
LSU (6) will beat Texas A&M (10) by 0.3 on the road. Texas A&M has a 49% chance of beating LSU.

2. Washington at Washington State.
Washington State (21) will beat Washington (18) by 2.2 at home. Washington has a 44% chance of beating Washington State.

3. Oklahoma at West Virginia.
West Virginia (15) will beat Oklahoma (7) by 0.0 at home. Oklahoma has a 50% chance of beating West Virginia.

4. Michigan at Ohio State.
Michigan (4) will beat Ohio State (12) by 3.9 on the road. Ohio State has a 38% chance of beating Michigan.

5. Pittsburgh at Miami (FL).
Miami (FL) (36) will beat Pittsburgh (33) by 2.2 at home. Pittsburgh has a 44% chance of beating Miami (FL).

6. Utah State at Boise State.
Boise State (37) will beat Utah State (35) by 2.0 at home. Utah State has a 44% chance of beating Boise State.

7. Syracuse at Boston College.
Syracuse (25) will beat Boston College (38) by 0.4 on the road. Boston College has a 49% chance of beating Syracuse.

8. Tennessee at Vanderbilt.
Vanderbilt (40) will beat Tennessee (49) by 5.0 at home. Tennessee has a 35% chance of beating Vanderbilt.

9. Houston at Memphis.
Memphis (47) will beat Houston (54) by 4.2 at home. Houston has a 38% chance of beating Memphis.

10. South Carolina at Clemson.
Clemson (2) will beat South Carolina (23) by 18.5 at home. South Carolina has a 10% chance of beating Clemson.

11. Auburn at Alabama.
Alabama (1) will beat Auburn (13) by 25.4 at home. Auburn has a 5% chance of beating Alabama.

12. Oklahoma State at TCU.
Oklahoma State (30) will beat TCU (57) by 2.8 on the road. TCU has a 42% chance of beating Oklahoma State.

13. Maryland at Penn State.
Penn State (20) will beat Maryland (56) by 11.3 at home. Maryland has a 21% chance of beating Penn State.

14. UAB at Middle Tennessee.
Middle Tennessee (77) will beat UAB (75) by 2.9 at home. UAB has a 41% chance of beating Middle Tennessee.

15. Mississippi State at Mississippi.
Mississippi State (8) will beat Mississippi (51) by 9.1 on the road. Mississippi has a 25% chance of beating Mississippi State.

16. Kansas State at Iowa State.
Iowa State (24) will beat Kansas State (59) by 10.5 at home. Kansas State has a 22% chance of beating Iowa State.

17. Purdue at Indiana.
Purdue (31) will beat Indiana (62) by 3.7 on the road. Indiana has a 39% chance of beating Purdue.

18. Minnesota at Wisconsin.
Wisconsin (28) will beat Minnesota (61) by 10.7 at home. Minnesota has a 22% chance of beating Wisconsin.

19. Georgia Tech at Georgia.
Georgia (3) will beat Georgia Tech (45) by 23.4 at home. Georgia Tech has a 6% chance of beating Georgia.

20. Nebraska at Iowa.
Iowa (17) will beat Nebraska (60) by 12.9 at home. Nebraska has a 18% chance of beating Iowa.

21. Notre Dame at USC.
Notre Dame (5) will beat USC (53) by 13.7 on the road. USC has a 16% chance of beating Notre Dame.

22. Texas Tech versus Baylor at a neutral site.
Texas Tech (39) will beat Baylor (65) by 6.0 at a neutral site. Baylor has a 33% chance of beating Texas Tech.

23. Virginia at Virginia Tech.
Virginia (44) will beat Virginia Tech (69) by 2.2 on the road. Virginia Tech has a 43% chance of beating Virginia.

24. Troy at Appalachian State.
Appalachian State (50) will beat Troy (78) by 8.3 at home. Troy has a 27% chance of beating Appalachian State.

25. Arizona State at Arizona.
Arizona State (42) will beat Arizona (74) by 3.3 on the road. Arizona has a 40% chance of beating Arizona State.

26. Navy at Tulane.
Tulane (89) will beat Navy (90) by 3.1 at home. Navy has a 41% chance of beating Tulane.

27. Colorado at California.
California (58) will beat Colorado (82) by 7.2 at home. Colorado has a 30% chance of beating California.

28. Arkansas at Missouri.
Missouri (11) will beat Arkansas (66) by 17.4 at home. Arkansas has a 11% chance of beating Missouri.

29. North Carolina State at North Carolina.
North Carolina State (41) will beat North Carolina (80) by 4.4 on the road. North Carolina has a 37% chance of beating North Carolina State.

30. Florida at Florida State.
Florida (14) will beat Florida State (68) by 10.9 on the road. Florida State has a 21% chance of beating Florida.

31. Brigham Young at Utah.
Utah (22) will beat Brigham Young (72) by 14.3 at home. Brigham Young has a 15% chance of beating Utah.

32. Wake Forest at Duke.
Duke (34) will beat Wake Forest (81) by 12.4 at home. Wake Forest has a 18% chance of beating Duke.

33. Stanford at UCLA.
Stanford (29) will beat UCLA (85) by 8.3 on the road. UCLA has a 27% chance of beating Stanford.

34. UCF at South Florida.
UCF (9) will beat South Florida (87) by 15.6 on the road. South Florida has a 13% chance of beating UCF.

35. SMU at Tulsa.
Tulsa (100) will beat SMU (91) by 0.3 at home. SMU has a 49% chance of beating Tulsa.

36. Louisiana at Louisiana Monroe.
Louisiana Monroe (105) will beat Louisiana (102) by 2.1 at home. Louisiana has a 44% chance of beating Louisiana Monroe.

37. Marshall at Florida International.
Marshall (70) will beat Florida International (97) by 2.6 on the road. Florida International has a 42% chance of beating Marshall.

38. Northern Illinois at Western Michigan.
Northern Illinois (71) will beat Western Michigan (98) by 2.6 on the road. Western Michigan has a 42% chance of beating Northern Illinois.

39. Texas at Kansas.
Texas (19) will beat Kansas (93) by 13.1 on the road. Kansas has a 17% chance of beating Texas.

40. Akron at Ohio.
Ohio (55) will beat Akron (99) by 12.5 at home. Akron has a 18% chance of beating Ohio.

41. Central Michigan at Toledo.
Toledo (86) will beat Central Michigan (103) by 8.8 at home. Central Michigan has a 26% chance of beating Toledo.

42. Ball State at Miami (OH).
Miami (OH) (88) will beat Ball State (104) by 8.9 at home. Ball State has a 26% chance of beating Miami (OH).

43. Kentucky at Louisville.
Kentucky (16) will beat Louisville (101) by 17.0 on the road. Louisville has a 11% chance of beating Kentucky.

44. Rutgers at Michigan State.
Michigan State (27) will beat Rutgers (106) by 22.5 at home. Rutgers has a 6% chance of beating Michigan State.

45. Illinois at Northwestern.
Northwestern (26) will beat Illinois (107) by 22.9 at home. Illinois has a 6% chance of beating Northwestern.

46. Hawaii at San Diego State.
San Diego State (67) will beat Hawaii (109) by 13.7 at home. Hawaii has a 16% chance of beating San Diego State.

47. Nevada at UNLV.
Nevada (94) will beat UNLV (115) by 4.5 on the road. UNLV has a 37% chance of beating Nevada.

48. East Carolina at Cincinnati.
Cincinnati (52) will beat East Carolina (108) by 17.5 at home. East Carolina has a 11% chance of beating Cincinnati.

49. Colorado State at Air Force.
Air Force (76) will beat Colorado State (113) by 13.8 at home. Colorado State has a 16% chance of beating Air Force.

50. Charlotte at Florida Atlantic.
Florida Atlantic (83) will beat Charlotte (114) by 13.4 at home. Charlotte has a 17% chance of beating Florida Atlantic.

51. Oregon at Oregon State.
Oregon (43) will beat Oregon State (111) by 13.7 on the road. Oregon State has a 16% chance of beating Oregon.

52. Wyoming at New Mexico.
Wyoming (95) will beat New Mexico (119) by 6.0 on the road. New Mexico has a 33% chance of beating Wyoming.

53. Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech.
Louisiana Tech (84) will beat Western Kentucky (117) by 14.4 at home. Western Kentucky has a 15% chance of beating Louisiana Tech.

54. Coastal Carolina at South Alabama.
Coastal Carolina (112) will beat South Alabama (125) by 3.4 on the road. South Alabama has a 40% chance of beating Coastal Carolina.

55. San Jose State at Fresno State.
Fresno State (32) will beat San Jose State (120) by 25.6 at home. San Jose State has a 4% chance of beating Fresno State.

56. Georgia Southern at Georgia State.
Georgia Southern (79) will beat Georgia State (122) by 11.0 on the road. Georgia State has a 21% chance of beating Georgia Southern.

57. Arkansas State at Texas State.
Arkansas State (92) will beat Texas State (123) by 8.9 on the road. Texas State has a 26% chance of beating Arkansas State.

58. Buffalo at Bowling Green.
Buffalo (64) will beat Bowling Green (121) by 13.2 on the road. Bowling Green has a 17% chance of beating Buffalo.

59. Eastern Michigan at Kent State.
Eastern Michigan (73) will beat Kent State (124) by 12.2 on the road. Kent State has a 19% chance of beating Eastern Michigan.

60. New Mexico State at Liberty.
Liberty (116) will beat New Mexico State (130) by 10.9 at home. New Mexico State has a 21% chance of beating Liberty.

61. Old Dominion at Rice.
Old Dominion (110) will beat Rice (128) by 5.7 on the road. Rice has a 34% chance of beating Old Dominion.

62. Southern Miss at UTEP.
Southern Miss (96) will beat UTEP (126) by 10.1 on the road. UTEP has a 23% chance of beating Southern Miss.

63. North Texas at UTSA.
North Texas (63) will beat UTSA (127) by 18.4 on the road. UTSA has a 10% chance of beating North Texas.

64. Temple at Connecticut.
Temple (46) will beat Connecticut (129) by 22.8 on the road. Connecticut has a 6% chance of beating Temple.

NFL Draft by Wisdom of Crowds

To check out my wisdom of crowds predictions for the 2018 NFL Draft, click here.

International Soccer/Football

My rankings were a part of an academic study on making football predictions.

Major League Baseball

College Basketball

National Basketball Association

To get details on my NBA model for 2018 and series win win probability before the NBA Finals, click here.