It started with team rankings that take margin of victory and adjust for strength of schedule. Back in 2008, I developed an algorithm that makes these adjustments.
Each year in July, I release a college football win totals report. These numbers are based on my preseason ranking which have predicted the game winner in 70.8% of games (1452-598 with no prediction in 235 games) over the past 3 seasons.
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To check out my wisdom of crowds predictions for the 2017 NFL Draft, click here.
National Basketball Association
These numbers consider data from games and the markets. They do not consider injuries or games in which star players did not play.
To see an interactive visual with win probabilities before the playoffs started, click here.
Games on Sunday, April 30, 2017.
1. Utah at Los Angeles Clippers.
Los Angeles Clippers (4) will beat Utah (5) by 5.9 at home. Utah has a 30% chance of beating Los Angeles Clippers.
2. Washington at Boston.
Boston (8) will beat Washington (12) by 5.3 at home. Washington has a 32% chance of beating Boston.
Major League Baseball
The matchup shows the projected FIP (adjusted ERA) for each starting pitcher according to ZiPS.
The integer in parentheses gives the team’s rank in The Power Rank.
New York Mets (Noah Syndergaard, 2.58) at Washington (Joe Ross, 3.67).
New York Mets (6) has a 50.7 chance to beat Washington (1).
Atlanta (Mike Foltynewicz, 4.27) at Milwaukee (Matt Garza, 4.81).
Atlanta (15) has a 56.5 chance to beat Milwaukee (26).
Cincinnati (Bronson Arroyo, 5.99) at St. Louis (Mike Leake, 3.85).
St. Louis (10) has a 71.1 chance to beat Cincinnati (23).
San Diego (Clayton Richard, 4.54) at San Francisco (Ty Blach, 4.20).
San Francisco (11) has a 63.8 chance to beat San Diego (30).
Colorado (German Marquez, 4.75) at Arizona (Patrick Corbin, 4.38).
Arizona (16) has a 53.9 chance to beat Colorado (14).
Philadelphia (Nick Pivetta, 4.58) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Hyun-Jin Ryu, 4.03).
Los Angeles Dodgers (3) has a 64.4 chance to beat Philadelphia (18).
Pittsburgh (Chad Kuhl, 4.51) at Miami (Tom Koehler, 4.79).
Pittsburgh (9) has a 53.8 chance to beat Miami (17).
Seattle (Chase De Jong, 4.54) at Cleveland (Josh Tomlin, 4.13).
Cleveland (7) has a 59.1 chance to beat Seattle (13).
Baltimore (Wade Miley, 4.23) at New York Yankees (Jordan Montgomery, 4.70).
New York Yankees (4) has a 56.9 chance to beat Baltimore (20).
Tampa Bay (Chris Archer, 3.30) at Toronto (Aaron Sanchez, 3.80).
Tampa Bay (12) has a 56.1 chance to beat Toronto (21).
Chicago White Sox (Miguel Gonzalez, 4.56) at Detroit (Jordan Zimmermann, 4.29).
Detroit (22) has a 56.3 chance to beat Chicago White Sox (28).
Los Angeles Angels (JC Ramirez, 4.09) at Texas (Martin Perez, 4.41).
Texas (19) has a 51.1 chance to beat Los Angeles Angels (25).
Oakland (Jesse Hahn, 4.47) at Houston (Dallas Keuchel, 3.58).
Houston (5) has a 66.9 chance to beat Oakland (24).
Minnesota (Phil Hughes, 3.99) at Kansas City (Jason Hammel, 4.29).
Minnesota (27) has a 54.1 chance to beat Kansas City (29).
Chicago Cubs (Kyle Hendricks, 3.66) at Boston (Eduardo Rodriguez, 4.22).
Chicago Cubs (2) has a 57.5 chance to beat Boston (8).
NBA Series Win Probabilities
These were series win probabilities before the start of each series.
Portland vs Golden State.
Golden State has a 95.7 percent chance of winning the series.
Utah vs Los Angeles Clippers.
Los Angeles Clippers has a 55.3 percent chance of winning the series.
Oklahoma City vs Houston.
Houston has a 77.6 percent chance of winning the series.
Memphis vs San Antonio.
San Antonio has a 83.6 percent chance of winning the series.
Indiana vs Cleveland.
Cleveland has a 70.5 percent chance of winning the series.
Milwaukee vs Toronto.
Toronto has a 65.8 percent chance of winning the series.
Atlanta vs Washington.
Washington has a 66.0 percent chance of winning the series.
Chicago vs Boston.
Boston has a 79.9 percent chance of winning the series.
College Basketball, Tournament Games
To see the tourney win probability for each team in an interactive bracket, click here.
During the 2016 season, these college football predictions predicted the winner in 72.7% of games (550-206).
During the 2015 season, these college football predictions predicted the winner in 76.2% of games (583-182).
These record do not include any cupcake FBS vs FCS games.
My rankings were a part of an academic study on making football predictions.
To check out my Euro 2016 win probabilities before the knock out stage started, click here.