The Power Rank uses data and analytics to make accurate predictions for football and March Madness. I developed these methods based on my PhD in applied math from Stanford.
Actionable Betting Information
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Major League Baseball
The matchup shows the projected FIP for each starting pitcher according to ZiPS.
The integer in parentheses gives the team’s rank in The Power Rank.
Since Apr 01, 2021, the team with the higher win probability has won 298 of 552 games for a win percentage of 54.0%.
The team favored by the markets has won 302.0 of 552 games for a win percentage of 54.7%.
Games on Saturday, May 15, 2021.
New York Mets (Joey Lucchesi, 4.11) at Tampa Bay (Shane McClanahan, 4.78).
New York Mets (3) has a 60.3 chance to beat Tampa Bay (11).
Oakland (Cole Irvin, 4.50) at Minnesota (Jose Berrios, 3.90).
Minnesota (15) has a 56.2 chance to beat Oakland (21).
Los Angeles Angels (Dylan Bundy, 4.20) at Boston (Martin Perez, 4.63).
Boston (8) has a 52.4 chance to beat Los Angeles Angels (18).
Chicago Cubs (Trevor Williams, 4.66) at Detroit (Jose Urena, 4.45).
Chicago Cubs (23) has a 57.4 chance to beat Detroit (30).
San Francisco (Johnny Cueto, 4.47) at Pittsburgh (Tyler Anderson, 4.61).
San Francisco (7) has a 63.1 chance to beat Pittsburgh (29).
New York Yankees (Domingo German, 4.41) at Baltimore (Jorge Lopez, 5.13).
New York Yankees (4) has a 67.4 chance to beat Baltimore (26).
Atlanta (Ian Anderson, 4.15) at Milwaukee (Brett Anderson, 4.74).
Atlanta (19) has a 50.2 chance to beat Milwaukee (10).
Kansas City (Mike Minor, 4.36) at Chicago White Sox (Carlos Rodon, 4.16).
Chicago White Sox (6) has a 66.0 chance to beat Kansas City (28).
Texas (Dane Dunning, 3.91) at Houston (Luis Garcia, 4.98).
Houston (5) has a 55.3 chance to beat Texas (25).
Philadelphia (Aaron Nola, 3.51) at Toronto (Anthony Kay, 5.02).
Philadelphia (16) has a 58.4 chance to beat Toronto (13).
Cincinnati (Tyler Mahle, 4.34) at Colorado (Jhoulys Chacin, 5.51).
Cincinnati (14) has a 65.4 chance to beat Colorado (27).
Using replacement level fip for Seth Frankoff
Washington (Joe Ross, 5.31) at Arizona (Seth Frankoff, 5.00).
Washington (12) has a 50.9 chance to beat Arizona (22).
St. Louis (Adam Wainwright, 4.58) at San Diego (Chris Paddack, 3.91).
San Diego (2) has a 60.8 chance to beat St. Louis (9).
Cleveland (Triston McKenzie, 5.13) at Seattle (Justus Sheffield, 4.62).
Seattle (24) has a 52.1 chance to beat Cleveland (20).
Using replacement level fip for
Miami (, 5.00) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Trevor Bauer, 3.55).
Los Angeles Dodgers (1) has a 73.6 chance to beat Miami (17).
College Basketball
These predictions are based on my college basketball team rankings. The higher ranked team by this model has won 71.3% of tournament games since the 2005 tournament.
Members of The Power Rank have access to more accurate predictions. To learn more, click here.
NFL
These predictions are based on my team rankings that take margin of victory in games and adjusts for strength of schedule. There is also a preseason component that gets less weight with each week.
College Football
In 2020, the college football team rankings are based on games from the 2019 and 2020 season, with the current season getting twice the weight. A home field of 1.2 points is used.
European Club Soccer
These predictions are based on expected goals (xG) from past matches. This raw data is obtained from FBRef. I adjust for strength of schedule based on a least squares algorithm, which is equivalent to the Simple Rating System.
After these schedule adjustments, I have offensive and defensive ratings for each team. These numbers imply goal rates for each team in a match.
I assume a Poisson model and calculate the probability for a win, loss and draw. I’m assuming a home advantage of 0.12 goals based on matches with no fans.
To learn more about how the efficiency prediction works, check out my ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics.