The Power Rank uses data and analytics to make accurate predictions for football and March Madness. I developed these methods based on my PhD in applied math from Stanford.
If you sign up for my free email newsletter, I’ll send you:
- My NFL preseason market rankings. These use market win totals to calculate a rank and rating for all 32 teams. You’ll see how many points Andrew Luck was worth to Indianapolis.
- The 2019 College Football Win Totals Report, which gives win totals for 130 FBS teams. These predictions are based on a preseason model which has predicted the game winner in over 70% of games the past 5 seasons.
To get this report, sign up for my free email newsletter. Each week, you’ll also get a sample of my best predictions usually saved for paying members of the site.
Enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”
NFL, Week 2
These predictions are based on my preseason wisdom of crowds model with small adjustments based on how a team performs against the closing market spread in week 1.
Members of The Power Rank have access to more accurate predictions. To learn more, click here.
6. Cleveland at New York Jets.
New York Jets (23) will beat Cleveland (24) by 2.1 at home. Cleveland has a 43% chance of beating New York Jets.
Jets QB Sam Darnold will not play.
Major League Baseball
The matchup shows the projected FIP (adjusted ERA) for each starting pitcher according to ZiPS.
The integer in parentheses gives the team’s rank in The Power Rank, which now include data from the current season.
Since Apr 10, 2019, the team with the higher win probability has won 1235 of 2082 games for a win percentage of 59.3%.
The team favored by the markets has won 1249.5 of 2082 games for a win percentage of 60.0%.
Games on Monday, September 16, 2019.
San Diego (Garrett Richards, 4.18) at Milwaukee (Zach Davies, 4.56).
Milwaukee (13) has a 53.2 chance to beat San Diego (17).
Washington (Stephen Strasburg, 3.25) at St. Louis (Dakota Hudson, 4.69).
Washington (8) has a 60.0 chance to beat St. Louis (11).
Cincinnati (Kevin Gausman, 4.24) at Chicago Cubs (Cole Hamels, 4.19).
Chicago Cubs (6) has a 56.0 chance to beat Cincinnati (16).
New York Mets (Steven Matz, 4.42) at Colorado (Antonio Senzatela, 4.76).
New York Mets (12) has a 59.0 chance to beat Colorado (21).
Miami (Pablo Lopez, 4.28) at Arizona (Robbie Ray, 4.08).
Arizona (15) has a 64.7 chance to beat Miami (26).
Baltimore (John Means, 4.94) at Detroit (Tyler Alexander, 4.92).
Baltimore (29) has a 50.2 chance to beat Detroit (30).
Chicago White Sox (Reynaldo Lopez, 4.95) at Minnesota (Jose Berrios, 3.96).
Minnesota (5) has a 73.6 chance to beat Chicago White Sox (27).
Kansas City (Glenn Sparkman, 5.31) at Oakland (Tanner Roark, 4.39).
Oakland (10) has a 73.9 chance to beat Kansas City (28).
College Football, Week 3
These predictions are based on my preseason model with small adjustments based on how a team performs against the closing market spread.
Members of The Power Rank have access to more accurate predictions. To learn more, click here.
1. Kansas State at Mississippi State.
Mississippi State (19) will beat Kansas State (28) by 4.9 at home. Kansas State has a 36% chance of beating Mississippi State.
2. Florida at Kentucky.
Florida (15) will beat Kentucky (26) by 0.4 on the road. Kentucky has a 49% chance of beating Florida.
3. Iowa at Iowa State.
Iowa State (36) will beat Iowa (24) by 1.1 at home. Iowa has a 47% chance of beating Iowa State.
4. North Carolina State at West Virginia.
West Virginia (40) will beat North Carolina State (39) by 2.5 at home. North Carolina State has a 43% chance of beating West Virginia.
5. USC at Brigham Young.
Brigham Young (46) will beat USC (41) by 2.4 at home. USC has a 43% chance of beating Brigham Young.
6. Maryland at Temple.
Maryland (27) will beat Temple (47) by 0.5 on the road. Temple has a 49% chance of beating Maryland.
7. Pittsburgh at Penn State.
Penn State (9) will beat Pittsburgh (43) by 11.4 at home. Pittsburgh has a 20% chance of beating Penn State.
8. Alabama at South Carolina.
Alabama (2) will beat South Carolina (25) by 14.3 on the road. South Carolina has a 15% chance of beating Alabama.
9. Florida State at Virginia.
Virginia (23) will beat Florida State (57) by 8.7 at home. Florida State has a 26% chance of beating Virginia.
10. Clemson at Syracuse.
Clemson (1) will beat Syracuse (29) by 17.5 on the road. Syracuse has a 11% chance of beating Clemson.
11. TCU at Purdue.
Purdue (45) will beat TCU (65) by 6.9 at home. TCU has a 30% chance of beating Purdue.
12. Stanford at UCF.
UCF (14) will beat Stanford (55) by 12.1 at home. Stanford has a 19% chance of beating UCF.
13. Northern Illinois at Nebraska.
Nebraska (62) will beat Northern Illinois (71) by 4.8 at home. Northern Illinois has a 36% chance of beating Nebraska.
14. Arizona State at Michigan State.
Michigan State (13) will beat Arizona State (56) by 12.6 at home. Arizona State has a 18% chance of beating Michigan State.
15. Ohio at Marshall.
Marshall (78) will beat Ohio (79) by 3.1 at home. Ohio has a 41% chance of beating Marshall.
16. Ohio State at Indiana.
Ohio State (4) will beat Indiana (50) by 11.5 on the road. Indiana has a 20% chance of beating Ohio State.
17. Oklahoma at UCLA.
Oklahoma (5) will beat UCLA (54) by 11.4 on the road. UCLA has a 20% chance of beating Oklahoma.
18. North Carolina at Wake Forest.
North Carolina (30) will beat Wake Forest (69) by 3.8 on the road. Wake Forest has a 39% chance of beating North Carolina.
19. Southern Miss at Troy.
Troy (82) will beat Southern Miss (72) by 1.4 at home. Southern Miss has a 46% chance of beating Troy.
20. Air Force at Colorado.
Air Force (49) will beat Colorado (73) by 2.1 on the road. Colorado has a 44% chance of beating Air Force.
21. Texas Tech at Arizona.
Texas Tech (38) will beat Arizona (74) by 4.1 on the road. Arizona has a 38% chance of beating Texas Tech.
22. Washington State at Houston.
Washington State (17) will beat Houston (70) by 7.9 on the road. Houston has a 28% chance of beating Washington State.
23. Hawaii at Washington.
Washington (35) will beat Hawaii (76) by 11.1 at home. Hawaii has a 21% chance of beating Washington.
24. Georgia Southern at Minnesota.
Minnesota (31) will beat Georgia Southern (83) by 12.2 at home. Georgia Southern has a 19% chance of beating Minnesota.
25. Duke at Middle Tennessee.
Duke (37) will beat Middle Tennessee (87) by 6.3 on the road. Middle Tennessee has a 32% chance of beating Duke.
26. Arkansas State at Georgia.
Georgia (6) will beat Arkansas State (84) by 22.2 at home. Arkansas State has a 6% chance of beating Georgia.
27. Oklahoma State at Tulsa.
Oklahoma State (22) will beat Tulsa (86) by 8.4 on the road. Tulsa has a 27% chance of beating Oklahoma State.
28. Louisville versus Western Kentucky at a neutral site.
Louisville (63) will beat Western Kentucky (96) by 6.6 at a neutral site. Western Kentucky has a 31% chance of beating Louisville.
29. Eastern Michigan at Illinois.
Illinois (81) will beat Eastern Michigan (98) by 7.3 at home. Eastern Michigan has a 29% chance of beating Illinois.
30. Florida Atlantic at Ball State.
Ball State (92) will beat Florida Atlantic (101) by 6.0 at home. Florida Atlantic has a 33% chance of beating Ball State.
31. East Carolina at Navy.
Navy (90) will beat East Carolina (105) by 6.8 at home. East Carolina has a 31% chance of beating Navy.
32. Georgia State at Western Michigan.
Western Michigan (80) will beat Georgia State (104) by 8.9 at home. Georgia State has a 26% chance of beating Western Michigan.
33. North Texas at California.
California (64) will beat North Texas (100) by 11.5 at home. North Texas has a 20% chance of beating California.
34. Miami (OH) at Cincinnati.
Cincinnati (61) will beat Miami (OH) (102) by 12.3 at home. Miami (OH) has a 19% chance of beating Cincinnati.
35. Colorado State at Arkansas.
Arkansas (91) will beat Colorado State (111) by 8.1 at home. Colorado State has a 27% chance of beating Arkansas.
36. Texas State at SMU.
SMU (75) will beat Texas State (108) by 10.4 at home. Texas State has a 22% chance of beating SMU.
37. Akron at Central Michigan.
Central Michigan (114) will beat Akron (118) by 4.8 at home. Akron has a 36% chance of beating Central Michigan.
38. Buffalo at Liberty.
Buffalo (110) will beat Liberty (116) by 0.2 on the road. Liberty has a 49% chance of beating Buffalo.
39. Kansas at Boston College.
Boston College (66) will beat Kansas (109) by 12.5 at home. Kansas has a 18% chance of beating Boston College.
40. Louisiana Tech at Bowling Green.
Louisiana Tech (112) will beat Bowling Green (122) by 1.1 on the road. Bowling Green has a 47% chance of beating Louisiana Tech.
41. New Mexico at Notre Dame.
Notre Dame (7) will beat New Mexico (123) by 32.6 at home. New Mexico has a 2% chance of beating Notre Dame.
42. Kent State at Auburn.
Auburn (11) will beat Kent State (117) by 28.9 at home. Kent State has a 3% chance of beating Auburn.
43. Memphis at South Alabama.
Memphis (58) will beat South Alabama (119) by 12.7 on the road. South Alabama has a 18% chance of beating Memphis.
44. UNLV at Northwestern.
Northwestern (44) will beat UNLV (121) by 21.6 at home. UNLV has a 7% chance of beating Northwestern.
45. Massachusetts at Charlotte.
Charlotte (124) will beat Massachusetts (129) by 9.2 at home. Massachusetts has a 25% chance of beating Charlotte.
46. Texas versus Rice at a neutral site.
Texas (34) will beat Rice (125) by 22.7 at a neutral site. Rice has a 6% chance of beating Texas.
47. Army at UTSA.
Army (60) will beat UTSA (126) by 15.6 on the road. UTSA has a 13% chance of beating Army.
48. San Diego State at New Mexico State.
San Diego State (77) will beat New Mexico State (128) by 14.8 on the road. New Mexico State has a 15% chance of beating San Diego State.
World Soccer Football
College basketball
These college basketball predictions come from my points based team rankings.
National Basketball Association
To get details on my NBA model for 2018 and series win win probability before the NBA Finals, click here.
