Predictions

The Power Rank uses data and analytics to make accurate predictions for football and March Madness. I developed these methods based on my PhD in applied math from Stanford.

Get my best football predictions

If you sign up for my free email newsletter, you get a sample of my best football predictions usually saved for paying members of the site.

Each week, I also provide analysis on each of the games.

To get this service, sign up for my free email newsletter. Enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”








 

 
 

College Football, Week 12

These predictions are a combination of my preseason model and team rankings (margin of victory adjusted for strength of schedule) from this year.

Members of The Power Rank have access to more accurate predictions. To learn more, click here.

1. Georgia at Auburn.
Auburn (7) will beat Georgia (5) by 2.3 at home. Georgia has a 43% chance of beating Auburn.

2. Minnesota at Iowa.
Iowa (17) will beat Minnesota (20) by 2.6 at home. Minnesota has a 42% chance of beating Iowa.

3. Oklahoma at Baylor.
Oklahoma (6) will beat Baylor (15) by 2.5 on the road. Baylor has a 42% chance of beating Oklahoma.

4. Texas at Iowa State.
Iowa State (14) will beat Texas (23) by 5.9 at home. Texas has a 33% chance of beating Iowa State.

5. TCU at Texas Tech.
Texas Tech (38) will beat TCU (28) by 0.3 at home. TCU has a 49% chance of beating Texas Tech.

6. Michigan State at Michigan.
Michigan (13) will beat Michigan State (27) by 8.3 at home. Michigan State has a 27% chance of beating Michigan.

7. South Carolina at Texas A&M.
Texas A&M (22) will beat South Carolina (36) by 6.8 at home. South Carolina has a 31% chance of beating Texas A&M.

8. North Carolina at Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh (45) will beat North Carolina (35) by 0.5 at home. North Carolina has a 48% chance of beating Pittsburgh.

9. Navy at Notre Dame.
Notre Dame (16) will beat Navy (37) by 8.3 at home. Navy has a 27% chance of beating Notre Dame.

10. USC at California.
USC (30) will beat California (49) by 1.4 on the road. California has a 46% chance of beating USC.

11. Florida at Missouri.
Florida (8) will beat Missouri (39) by 8.8 on the road. Missouri has a 26% chance of beating Florida.

12. Stanford at Washington State.
Washington State (31) will beat Stanford (56) by 7.3 at home. Stanford has a 29% chance of beating Washington State.

13. Fresno State at San Diego State.
San Diego State (69) will beat Fresno State (68) by 2.2 at home. Fresno State has a 43% chance of beating San Diego State.

14. Alabama at Mississippi State.
Alabama (2) will beat Mississippi State (40) by 18.5 on the road. Mississippi State has a 10% chance of beating Alabama.

15. LSU at Mississippi.
LSU (3) will beat Mississippi (43) by 17.7 on the road. Mississippi has a 11% chance of beating LSU.

16. Tulane at Temple.
Tulane (55) will beat Temple (67) by 0.5 on the road. Temple has a 49% chance of beating Tulane.

17. Wyoming at Utah State.
Utah State (73) will beat Wyoming (70) by 1.4 at home. Wyoming has a 46% chance of beating Utah State.

18. Indiana at Penn State.
Penn State (10) will beat Indiana (51) by 15.8 at home. Indiana has a 13% chance of beating Penn State.

19. UCLA at Utah.
Utah (9) will beat UCLA (52) by 16.5 at home. UCLA has a 12% chance of beating Utah.

20. West Virginia at Kansas State.
Kansas State (25) will beat West Virginia (61) by 11.2 at home. West Virginia has a 21% chance of beating Kansas State.

21. Memphis at Houston.
Memphis (24) will beat Houston (63) by 7.4 on the road. Houston has a 29% chance of beating Memphis.

22. Wake Forest at Clemson.
Clemson (4) will beat Wake Forest (60) by 26.0 at home. Wake Forest has a 4% chance of beating Clemson.

23. Arizona State at Oregon State.
Arizona State (44) will beat Oregon State (72) by 4.0 on the road. Oregon State has a 38% chance of beating Arizona State.

24. Wisconsin at Nebraska.
Wisconsin (12) will beat Nebraska (66) by 12.3 on the road. Nebraska has a 19% chance of beating Wisconsin.

25. Western Michigan at Ohio.
Ohio (87) will beat Western Michigan (78) by 0.7 at home. Western Michigan has a 48% chance of beating Ohio.

26. Louisiana Tech at Marshall.
Marshall (77) will beat Louisiana Tech (86) by 4.4 at home. Louisiana Tech has a 37% chance of beating Marshall.

27. Northern Illinois at Toledo.
Toledo (97) will beat Northern Illinois (94) by 2.1 at home. Northern Illinois has a 44% chance of beating Toledo.

28. Arizona at Oregon.
Oregon (11) will beat Arizona (76) by 20.3 at home. Arizona has a 8% chance of beating Oregon.

29. Syracuse at Duke.
Duke (57) will beat Syracuse (83) by 8.3 at home. Syracuse has a 27% chance of beating Duke.

30. Central Michigan at Ball State.
Ball State (91) will beat Central Michigan (99) by 3.8 at home. Central Michigan has a 39% chance of beating Ball State.

31. Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech.
Virginia Tech (47) will beat Georgia Tech (82) by 5.8 on the road. Georgia Tech has a 33% chance of beating Virginia Tech.

32. Kansas at Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma State (19) will beat Kansas (84) by 18.3 at home. Kansas has a 10% chance of beating Oklahoma State.

33. Kentucky at Vanderbilt.
Kentucky (48) will beat Vanderbilt (89) by 6.6 on the road. Vanderbilt has a 31% chance of beating Kentucky.

34. Louisville at North Carolina State.
Louisville (75) will beat North Carolina State (100) by 2.5 on the road. North Carolina State has a 42% chance of beating Louisville.

35. Ohio State at Rutgers.
Ohio State (1) will beat Rutgers (122) by 47.5 on the road. Rutgers has a 0% chance of beating Ohio State.

36. Appalachian State at Georgia State.
Appalachian State (26) will beat Georgia State (92) by 12.5 on the road. Georgia State has a 18% chance of beating Appalachian State.

37. Coastal Carolina at Arkansas State.
Arkansas State (93) will beat Coastal Carolina (110) by 6.3 at home. Coastal Carolina has a 32% chance of beating Arkansas State.

38. Cincinnati at South Florida.
Cincinnati (29) will beat South Florida (98) by 12.3 on the road. South Florida has a 19% chance of beating Cincinnati.

39. Louisiana Monroe at Georgia Southern.
Georgia Southern (71) will beat Louisiana Monroe (106) by 9.5 at home. Louisiana Monroe has a 24% chance of beating Georgia Southern.

40. Air Force at Colorado State.
Air Force (41) will beat Colorado State (111) by 12.9 on the road. Colorado State has a 18% chance of beating Air Force.

41. Rice at Middle Tennessee.
Middle Tennessee (102) will beat Rice (116) by 7.8 at home. Rice has a 28% chance of beating Middle Tennessee.

42. Troy at Texas State.
Troy (96) will beat Texas State (117) by 4.4 on the road. Texas State has a 37% chance of beating Troy.

43. Buffalo at Kent State.
Buffalo (90) will beat Kent State (118) by 6.5 on the road. Kent State has a 31% chance of beating Buffalo.

44. Hawaii at UNLV.
Hawaii (88) will beat UNLV (119) by 7.5 on the road. UNLV has a 29% chance of beating Hawaii.

45. New Mexico at Boise State.
Boise State (32) will beat New Mexico (121) by 26.1 at home. New Mexico has a 4% chance of beating Boise State.

46. Louisiana at South Alabama.
Louisiana (54) will beat South Alabama (123) by 18.0 on the road. South Alabama has a 10% chance of beating Louisiana.

47. Southern Miss at UTSA.
Southern Miss (81) will beat UTSA (124) by 12.8 on the road. UTSA has a 18% chance of beating Southern Miss.

48. Bowling Green at Miami (OH).
Miami (OH) (105) will beat Bowling Green (127) by 16.1 at home. Bowling Green has a 13% chance of beating Miami (OH).

49. UTEP at UAB.
UAB (104) will beat UTEP (128) by 19.2 at home. UTEP has a 9% chance of beating UAB.

50. Eastern Michigan at Akron.
Eastern Michigan (107) will beat Akron (129) by 16.3 on the road. Akron has a 12% chance of beating Eastern Michigan.

51. Massachusetts at Northwestern.
Northwestern (74) will beat Massachusetts (130) by 37.4 at home. Massachusetts has a 1% chance of beating Northwestern.

NFL, Week 11

These predictions are based on my team rankings that take margin of victory in games and adjust for schedule. There is also a preseason component whose weight diminishes with every week.

Members of The Power Rank have access to more accurate predictions. To learn more, click here.

1. Houston at Baltimore.
Baltimore (3) will beat Houston (10) by 4.3 at home. Houston has a 37% chance of beating Baltimore.

2. Kansas City versus Los Angeles Chargers at a neutral site.
Kansas City (4) will beat Los Angeles Chargers (13) by 3.0 at a neutral site. Los Angeles Chargers has a 40% chance of beating Kansas City.

3. Chicago at Los Angeles Rams.
Los Angeles Rams (7) will beat Chicago (15) by 4.0 at home. Chicago has a 37% chance of beating Los Angeles Rams.

4. New England at Philadelphia.
New England (1) will beat Philadelphia (14) by 4.0 on the road. Philadelphia has a 37% chance of beating New England.

5. Pittsburgh at Cleveland.
Pittsburgh (11) will beat Cleveland (18) by 0.7 on the road. Cleveland has a 48% chance of beating Pittsburgh.

6. Jacksonville at Indianapolis.
Indianapolis (17) will beat Jacksonville (26) by 4.1 at home. Jacksonville has a 37% chance of beating Indianapolis.

7. Dallas at Detroit.
Dallas (12) will beat Detroit (20) by 1.7 on the road. Detroit has a 45% chance of beating Dallas.

8. Atlanta at Carolina.
Carolina (16) will beat Atlanta (25) by 4.8 at home. Atlanta has a 35% chance of beating Carolina.

9. New Orleans at Tampa Bay.
New Orleans (8) will beat Tampa Bay (21) by 3.1 on the road. Tampa Bay has a 40% chance of beating New Orleans.

10. Denver at Minnesota.
Minnesota (5) will beat Denver (23) by 7.7 at home. Denver has a 27% chance of beating Minnesota.

11. New York Jets at Washington.
Washington (28) will beat New York Jets (30) by 2.2 at home. New York Jets has a 43% chance of beating Washington.

12. Arizona at San Francisco.
San Francisco (2) will beat Arizona (27) by 11.4 at home. Arizona has a 19% chance of beating San Francisco.

13. Cincinnati at Oakland.
Oakland (22) will beat Cincinnati (31) by 7.5 at home. Cincinnati has a 28% chance of beating Oakland.

14. Buffalo at Miami.
Buffalo (24) will beat Miami (32) by 5.4 on the road. Miami has a 33% chance of beating Buffalo.

Major League Baseball

The matchup shows the projected FIP (adjusted ERA) for each starting pitcher according to ZiPS.

The integer in parentheses gives the team’s rank in The Power Rank, which now include data from the current season.

From Apr 10, 2019 through the World Series, the team with the higher win probability has won 1381 of 2329 games for a win percentage of 59.3%.

The team favored by the markets has won 1403.0 of 2329 games for a win percentage of 60.2%.

World Soccer Football

College basketball

These college basketball predictions come from my points based team rankings.

National Basketball Association

To get details on my NBA model for 2018 and series win win probability before the NBA Finals, click here.