Predictions

Do you need accurate football and March Madness predictions? The Power Rank seeks to make the best possible predictions based on data and computers.

It started with team rankings that take margin of victory and adjust for strength of schedule. Back in 2008, I developed an algorithm that makes these adjustments.

Each year in July, I release a college football win totals report. These numbers are based on my preseason ranking which have predicted the game winner in 70.8% of games (1452-598 with no prediction in 235 games) over the past 3 seasons.

To get this free report as soon as it’s available, sign up for my email newsletter. Enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”








International Soccer

My rankings were a part of an academic study on making football predictions.

Gold Cup Final, 2017

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Jamaica at United States: United States has a 81.9% chance to win. Jamaica has a 1.2% chance to win. There is a 16.9% chance for a tie.

Major League Baseball

The matchup shows the projected FIP (adjusted ERA) for each starting pitcher according to ZiPS.

The integer in parentheses gives the team’s rank in The Power Rank.

Since Apr 27, 2017, the team with the higher win probability has won 623 of 1118 games for a win percentage of 55.7%.

The team favored by the markets has won 620.0 of 1118 games for a win percentage of 55.5%.

Games on Monday, July 24, 2017.

Colorado (Antonio Senzatela, 5.07) at St. Louis (Mike Leake, 4.04).
St. Louis (10) has a 62.5 chance to beat Colorado (16).

Atlanta (R.A. Dickey, 4.82) at Arizona (Zack Greinke, 3.61).
Arizona (6) has a 68.5 chance to beat Atlanta (20).

New York Mets (Jacob deGrom, 3.41) at San Diego (Clayton Richard, 4.44).
New York Mets (22) has a 60.8 chance to beat San Diego (30).

Pittsburgh (Gerrit Cole, 3.68) at San Francisco (Matt Cain, 4.82).
Pittsburgh (19) has a 63.1 chance to beat San Francisco (28).

Oakland (Chris Smith, 4.59) at Toronto (Francisco Liriano, 4.51).
Oakland (12) has a 54.1 chance to beat Toronto (23).

Kansas City (Jason Hammel, 4.39) at Detroit (Justin Verlander, 3.86).
Detroit (18) has a 56.0 chance to beat Kansas City (21).

Baltimore (Kevin Gausman, 4.21) at Tampa Bay (Blake Snell, 4.10).
Tampa Bay (7) has a 65.0 chance to beat Baltimore (29).

Boston (Eduardo Rodriguez, 4.16) at Seattle (James Paxton, 3.35).
Seattle (11) has a 55.3 chance to beat Boston (9).

Chicago White Sox (Miguel Gonzalez, 4.84) at Chicago Cubs (Kyle Hendricks, 3.72).
Chicago Cubs (8) has a 69.2 chance to beat Chicago White Sox (27).

Houston (Brad Peacock, 4.00) at Philadelphia (Vince Velasquez, 3.96).
Houston (1) has a 71.1 chance to beat Philadelphia (25).

Miami (Adam Conley, 4.33) at Texas (Martin Perez, 4.39).
Texas (14) has a 51.0 chance to beat Miami (15).

Minnesota (Bartolo Colon, 4.36) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Hyun-Jin Ryu, 4.18).
Los Angeles Dodgers (2) has a 71.2 chance to beat Minnesota (24).

Cincinnati (Tim Adleman, 5.23) at Cleveland (Josh Tomlin, 4.22).
Cleveland (4) has a 72.6 chance to beat Cincinnati (26).

NFL Draft

To check out my wisdom of crowds predictions for the 2017 NFL Draft, click here.

College Basketball, Tournament Games

To see the tourney win probability for each team in an interactive bracket, click here.

College Football

During the 2016 season, these college football predictions predicted the winner in 72.7% of games (550-206).

During the 2015 season, these college football predictions predicted the winner in 76.2% of games (583-182).

These record do not include any cupcake FBS vs FCS games.

National Basketball Association

To see an interactive visual with win probabilities before the 2017 playoffs started, click here.