Predictions

Do you need accurate football and March Madness predictions? The Power Rank seeks to make the best possible predictions based on data and computers.

It started with team rankings that take margin of victory and adjust for strength of schedule. Based on my Ph.D. from Stanford, I developed an algorithm that makes these adjustments, and this page contains predictions from these team rankings.

I also create member predictions for college football and the NFL. These predictions use data beyond margin of victory to make more accurate predictions.

I offer a sample of these member predictions and analysis in my free email newsletter. To get these emails, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”








Major League Baseball

The matchup shows the xFIP (adjusted ERA) for each starting pitcher.

The integer in parentheses gives the team’s rank in The Power Rank.

Games on Monday, October 16, 2017.

Houston (Charlie Morton, 3.58) at New York Yankees (CC Sabathia, 4.11).
Houston (1) has a 53.1 chance to beat New York Yankees (3).

NFL, Week 6

These predictions come from team rankings based on margin of victory adjusted for strength of schedule.

Members of The Power Rank have access to more accurate ensemble predictions that also use data from games and markets. Members also get predictions for totals.

To learn more about becoming a member, click here.

14. Indianapolis at Tennessee.
Tennessee (14) will beat Indianapolis (32) by 13.9 at home. Indianapolis has a 18% chance of beating Tennessee.

College Football, Week 8

These predictions based on the team rankings have predicted the winner in 74.5% of games during the 2016 and 2017 seasons (1133-388). This record does not include any cupcake FBS vs FCS games.

Members of The Power Rank have access to more accurate ensemble predictions that also use data from games and markets. Members also get predictions for totals.

To learn more, click here.

1. USC at Notre Dame.
Notre Dame (12) will beat USC (11) by 2.4 at home. USC has a 43% chance of beating Notre Dame.

2. Michigan at Penn State.
Penn State (5) will beat Michigan (15) by 5.8 at home. Michigan has a 33% chance of beating Penn State.

3. Louisville at Florida State.
Florida State (10) will beat Louisville (18) by 7.0 at home. Louisville has a 30% chance of beating Florida State.

4. Oregon at UCLA.
UCLA (36) will beat Oregon (28) by 1.5 at home. Oregon has a 46% chance of beating UCLA.

5. Wake Forest at Georgia Tech.
Georgia Tech (24) will beat Wake Forest (32) by 6.0 at home. Wake Forest has a 33% chance of beating Georgia Tech.

6. Oklahoma State at Texas.
Oklahoma State (9) will beat Texas (26) by 5.3 on the road. Texas has a 35% chance of beating Oklahoma State.

7. Iowa at Northwestern.
Northwestern (43) will beat Iowa (35) by 0.1 at home. Iowa has a 50% chance of beating Northwestern.

8. Indiana at Michigan State.
Michigan State (30) will beat Indiana (44) by 6.6 at home. Indiana has a 31% chance of beating Michigan State.

9. Memphis at Houston.
Houston (39) will beat Memphis (51) by 5.7 at home. Memphis has a 34% chance of beating Houston.

10. Pittsburgh at Duke.
Duke (48) will beat Pittsburgh (59) by 4.8 at home. Pittsburgh has a 36% chance of beating Duke.

11. Colorado at Washington State.
Washington State (21) will beat Colorado (45) by 9.8 at home. Colorado has a 24% chance of beating Washington State.

12. Iowa State at Texas Tech.
Texas Tech (29) will beat Iowa State (52) by 8.0 at home. Iowa State has a 28% chance of beating Texas Tech.

13. Oklahoma at Kansas State.
Oklahoma (4) will beat Kansas State (37) by 10.5 on the road. Kansas State has a 22% chance of beating Oklahoma.

14. LSU at Mississippi.
LSU (19) will beat Mississippi (49) by 5.6 on the road. Mississippi has a 34% chance of beating LSU.

15. Arizona State at Utah.
Utah (27) will beat Arizona State (55) by 9.3 at home. Arizona State has a 25% chance of beating Utah.

16. Kentucky at Mississippi State.
Mississippi State (25) will beat Kentucky (58) by 11.3 at home. Kentucky has a 21% chance of beating Mississippi State.

17. UCF at Navy.
UCF (22) will beat Navy (57) by 5.7 on the road. Navy has a 33% chance of beating UCF.

18. Tennessee at Alabama.
Alabama (1) will beat Tennessee (42) by 24.4 at home. Tennessee has a 5% chance of beating Alabama.

19. Arizona at California.
Arizona (46) will beat California (70) by 1.2 on the road. California has a 46% chance of beating Arizona.

20. Boston College at Virginia.
Virginia (60) will beat Boston College (73) by 5.9 at home. Boston College has a 33% chance of beating Virginia.

21. Syracuse at Miami (FL).
Miami (FL) (13) will beat Syracuse (56) by 16.0 at home. Syracuse has a 13% chance of beating Miami (FL).

22. North Carolina at Virginia Tech.
Virginia Tech (20) will beat North Carolina (65) by 13.5 at home. North Carolina has a 17% chance of beating Virginia Tech.

23. Auburn at Arkansas.
Auburn (7) will beat Arkansas (62) by 13.1 on the road. Arkansas has a 17% chance of beating Auburn.

24. Maryland at Wisconsin.
Wisconsin (14) will beat Maryland (68) by 17.7 at home. Maryland has a 11% chance of beating Wisconsin.

25. Marshall at Middle Tennessee State.
Middle Tennessee State (84) will beat Marshall (82) by 2.5 at home. Marshall has a 43% chance of beating Middle Tennessee State.

26. Temple at Army.
Army (85) will beat Temple (91) by 3.4 at home. Temple has a 40% chance of beating Army.

27. North Texas at Florida Atlantic.
Florida Atlantic (96) will beat North Texas (89) by 2.5 at home. North Texas has a 42% chance of beating Florida Atlantic.

28. Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech.
Louisiana Tech (79) will beat Southern Miss (87) by 5.2 at home. Southern Miss has a 35% chance of beating Louisiana Tech.

29. West Virginia at Baylor.
West Virginia (33) will beat Baylor (75) by 6.7 on the road. Baylor has a 31% chance of beating West Virginia.

30. Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan.
Western Michigan (71) will beat Eastern Michigan (90) by 1.7 on the road. Eastern Michigan has a 45% chance of beating Western Michigan.

31. Buffalo at Miami (OH).
Miami (OH) (93) will beat Buffalo (101) by 5.2 at home. Buffalo has a 35% chance of beating Miami (OH).

32. Colorado State at New Mexico.
Colorado State (54) will beat New Mexico (88) by 4.7 on the road. New Mexico has a 36% chance of beating Colorado State.

33. Fresno State at San Diego State.
San Diego State (41) will beat Fresno State (83) by 12.9 at home. Fresno State has a 18% chance of beating San Diego State.

34. Utah State at UNLV.
UNLV (98) will beat Utah State (106) by 5.2 at home. Utah State has a 35% chance of beating UNLV.

35. South Florida at Tulane.
South Florida (34) will beat Tulane (86) by 9.5 on the road. Tulane has a 24% chance of beating South Florida.

36. Wyoming at Boise State.
Boise State (40) will beat Wyoming (95) by 14.7 at home. Wyoming has a 15% chance of beating Boise State.

37. Purdue at Rutgers.
Purdue (64) will beat Rutgers (99) by 4.8 on the road. Rutgers has a 36% chance of beating Purdue.

38. SMU at Cincinnati.
SMU (67) will beat Cincinnati (102) by 5.5 on the road. Cincinnati has a 34% chance of beating SMU.

39. Louisiana Monroe at South Alabama.
South Alabama (109) will beat Louisiana Monroe (114) by 5.3 at home. Louisiana Monroe has a 35% chance of beating South Alabama.

40. Idaho at Missouri.
Missouri (74) will beat Idaho (105) by 10.7 at home. Idaho has a 22% chance of beating Missouri.

41. Georgia Southern at Massachusetts.
Massachusetts (115) will beat Georgia Southern (123) by 4.5 at home. Georgia Southern has a 37% chance of beating Massachusetts.

42. Akron at Toledo.
Toledo (61) will beat Akron (107) by 13.9 at home. Akron has a 16% chance of beating Toledo.

43. Central Michigan at Ball State.
Central Michigan (104) will beat Ball State (118) by 1.3 on the road. Ball State has a 46% chance of beating Central Michigan.

44. Illinois at Minnesota.
Minnesota (53) will beat Illinois (108) by 15.6 at home. Illinois has a 13% chance of beating Minnesota.

45. Tulsa at Connecticut.
Tulsa (81) will beat Connecticut (110) by 4.6 on the road. Connecticut has a 37% chance of beating Tulsa.

46. Air Force at Nevada.
Air Force (80) will beat Nevada (111) by 5.4 on the road. Nevada has a 34% chance of beating Air Force.

47. Louisiana Lafayette at Arkansas State.
Arkansas State (94) will beat Louisiana Lafayette (116) by 10.0 at home. Louisiana Lafayette has a 23% chance of beating Arkansas State.

48. Kansas at TCU.
TCU (17) will beat Kansas (122) by 30.6 at home. Kansas has a 2% chance of beating TCU.

49. Northern Illinois at Bowling Green.
Northern Illinois (72) will beat Bowling Green (112) by 8.0 on the road. Bowling Green has a 28% chance of beating Northern Illinois.

50. Western Kentucky at Old Dominion.
Western Kentucky (92) will beat Old Dominion (121) by 5.2 on the road. Old Dominion has a 35% chance of beating Western Kentucky.

51. Troy at Georgia State.
Troy (69) will beat Georgia State (117) by 10.0 on the road. Georgia State has a 23% chance of beating Troy.

52. UAB at Charlotte.
UAB (119) will beat Charlotte (128) by 2.4 on the road. Charlotte has a 43% chance of beating UAB.

53. Coastal Carolina at Appalachian State.
Appalachian State (50) will beat Coastal Carolina (120) by 20.3 at home. Coastal Carolina has a 8% chance of beating Appalachian State.

54. Brigham Young at East Carolina.
Brigham Young (76) will beat East Carolina (124) by 9.5 on the road. East Carolina has a 24% chance of beating Brigham Young.

55. Kent State at Ohio.
Ohio (78) will beat Kent State (126) by 16.6 at home. Kent State has a 12% chance of beating Ohio.

56. Rice at UTSA.
UTSA (77) will beat Rice (127) by 17.6 at home. Rice has a 11% chance of beating UTSA.

International Soccer

My rankings were a part of an academic study on making football predictions.

NFL Draft

To check out my wisdom of crowds predictions for the 2017 NFL Draft, click here.

College Basketball, Tournament Games

To see the tourney win probability for each team in an interactive bracket, click here.

National Basketball Association

To see an interactive visual with win probabilities before the 2017 playoffs started, click here.