The Power Rank uses data and analytics to make accurate predictions for football and March Madness. I developed these methods based on my PhD in applied math from Stanford.
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This newsletter is a different take on football action. Curious and thoughtful.— Gino G.
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NFL, Week 6
These predictions are based on my team rankings that take margin of victory in games and adjusts for strength of schedule. There is also a preseason component that gets less weight with each week.
Members of The Power Rank have access to more accurate ensemble predictions. To learn more, click here.
1. Green Bay at Tampa Bay.
Green Bay (3) will beat Tampa Bay (6) by 1.6 on the road. Tampa Bay has a 45% chance of beating Green Bay.
2. Kansas City at Buffalo.
Kansas City (1) will beat Buffalo (8) by 5.9 on the road. Buffalo has a 32% chance of beating Kansas City.
3. Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco.
San Francisco (18) will beat Los Angeles Rams (15) by 0.1 at home. Los Angeles Rams has a 50% chance of beating San Francisco.
4. Cleveland at Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh (10) will beat Cleveland (16) by 3.6 at home. Cleveland has a 39% chance of beating Pittsburgh.
5. Chicago at Carolina.
Chicago (20) will beat Carolina (25) by 0.1 on the road. Carolina has a 50% chance of beating Chicago.
6. Houston at Tennessee.
Tennessee (7) will beat Houston (19) by 6.6 at home. Houston has a 30% chance of beating Tennessee.
7. Arizona at Dallas.
Dallas (14) will beat Arizona (24) by 4.4 at home. Arizona has a 36% chance of beating Dallas.
8. Atlanta at Minnesota.
Minnesota (13) will beat Atlanta (23) by 5.3 at home. Atlanta has a 34% chance of beating Minnesota.
9. Denver at New England.
New England (9) will beat Denver (22) by 6.0 at home. Denver has a 32% chance of beating New England.
10. Detroit at Jacksonville.
Detroit (27) will beat Jacksonville (30) by 1.5 on the road. Jacksonville has a 45% chance of beating Detroit.
11. Baltimore at Philadelphia.
Baltimore (2) will beat Philadelphia (26) by 9.8 on the road. Philadelphia has a 22% chance of beating Baltimore.
12. Cincinnati at Indianapolis.
Indianapolis (12) will beat Cincinnati (28) by 7.9 at home. Cincinnati has a 27% chance of beating Indianapolis.
13. Washington at New York Giants.
New York Giants (29) will beat Washington (31) by 4.0 at home. Washington has a 38% chance of beating New York Giants.
14. New York Jets at Miami.
Miami (21) will beat New York Jets (32) by 9.0 at home. New York Jets has a 24% chance of beating Miami.
College Football, Week 7
In 2020, the college football team rankings are based on games from the 2019 and 2020 season, with the current season getting twice the weight. A home field of 1.2 points is used.
Members of The Power Rank have access to more accurate predictions based on more data sources. To learn more, click here.
1. Georgia at Alabama.
Alabama (3) will beat Georgia (5) by 5.3 at home. Georgia has a 34% chance of beating Alabama.
2. Kentucky at Tennessee.
Tennessee (25) will beat Kentucky (28) by 1.3 at home. Kentucky has a 46% chance of beating Tennessee.
3. Oklahoma State at Baylor.
Baylor (20) will beat Oklahoma State (24) by 2.8 at home. Oklahoma State has a 42% chance of beating Baylor.
4. UCF at Memphis.
Memphis (32) will beat UCF (29) by 0.5 at home. UCF has a 48% chance of beating Memphis.
5. Texas A&M at Mississippi State.
Texas A&M (18) will beat Mississippi State (26) by 1.1 on the road. Mississippi State has a 47% chance of beating Texas A&M.
6. LSU at Florida.
LSU (4) will beat Florida (6) by 6.8 on the road. Florida has a 31% chance of beating LSU.
7. Auburn at South Carolina.
Auburn (8) will beat South Carolina (36) by 9.5 on the road. South Carolina has a 24% chance of beating Auburn.
8. Pittsburgh at Miami (FL).
Miami (FL) (39) will beat Pittsburgh (54) by 5.5 at home. Pittsburgh has a 34% chance of beating Miami (FL).
9. Cincinnati at Tulsa.
Cincinnati (37) will beat Tulsa (56) by 4.3 on the road. Tulsa has a 37% chance of beating Cincinnati.
10. Virginia at Wake Forest.
Virginia (44) will beat Wake Forest (58) by 3.1 on the road. Wake Forest has a 41% chance of beating Virginia.
11. Boston College at Virginia Tech.
Virginia Tech (45) will beat Boston College (62) by 6.2 at home. Boston College has a 32% chance of beating Virginia Tech.
12. Georgia State at Arkansas State.
Arkansas State (78) will beat Georgia State (75) by 0.9 at home. Georgia State has a 47% chance of beating Arkansas State.
13. Mississippi at Arkansas.
Mississippi (38) will beat Arkansas (63) by 6.2 on the road. Arkansas has a 32% chance of beating Mississippi.
14. SMU at Tulane.
SMU (41) will beat Tulane (66) by 5.6 on the road. Tulane has a 34% chance of beating SMU.
15. Liberty at Syracuse.
Syracuse (88) will beat Liberty (87) by 1.1 at home. Liberty has a 47% chance of beating Syracuse.
16. Appalachian State at Georgia Southern.
Appalachian State (27) will beat Georgia Southern (65) by 9.5 on the road. Georgia Southern has a 24% chance of beating Appalachian State.
17. Brigham Young at Houston.
Brigham Young (43) will beat Houston (72) by 6.2 on the road. Houston has a 32% chance of beating Brigham Young.
18. Duke at North Carolina State.
Duke (73) will beat North Carolina State (85) by 1.2 on the road. North Carolina State has a 46% chance of beating Duke.
19. Louisville at Notre Dame.
Notre Dame (11) will beat Louisville (67) by 17.8 at home. Louisville has a 11% chance of beating Notre Dame.
20. Clemson at Georgia Tech.
Clemson (2) will beat Georgia Tech (97) by 35.2 on the road. Georgia Tech has a 1% chance of beating Clemson.
21. Western Kentucky at UAB.
UAB (96) will beat Western Kentucky (92) by 0.3 at home. Western Kentucky has a 49% chance of beating UAB.
22. North Carolina at Florida State.
North Carolina (22) will beat Florida State (76) by 12.6 on the road. Florida State has a 18% chance of beating North Carolina.
23. Coastal Carolina at Louisiana.
Louisiana (33) will beat Coastal Carolina (81) by 13.6 at home. Coastal Carolina has a 16% chance of beating Louisiana.
24. Marshall at Louisiana Tech.
Marshall (52) will beat Louisiana Tech (95) by 7.6 on the road. Louisiana Tech has a 29% chance of beating Marshall.
25. Florida International at Charlotte.
Charlotte (89) will beat Florida International (104) by 4.7 at home. Florida International has a 36% chance of beating Charlotte.
26. Vanderbilt at Missouri.
Missouri (23) will beat Vanderbilt (93) by 17.6 at home. Vanderbilt has a 11% chance of beating Missouri.
27. Texas State at South Alabama.
Texas State (109) will beat South Alabama (119) by 1.1 on the road. South Alabama has a 47% chance of beating Texas State.
28. Kansas at West Virginia.
West Virginia (53) will beat Kansas (108) by 14.3 at home. Kansas has a 15% chance of beating West Virginia.
29. North Texas at Middle Tennessee.
Middle Tennessee (110) will beat North Texas (122) by 6.0 at home. North Texas has a 33% chance of beating Middle Tennessee.
30. South Florida at Temple.
Temple (83) will beat South Florida (116) by 10.0 at home. South Florida has a 23% chance of beating Temple.
31. Navy at East Carolina.
Navy (57) will beat East Carolina (114) by 11.7 on the road. East Carolina has a 20% chance of beating Navy.
32. Army at UTSA.
Army (71) will beat UTSA (118) by 10.3 on the road. UTSA has a 23% chance of beating Army.
33. Southern Miss at UTEP.
Southern Miss (111) will beat UTEP (125) by 9.0 on the road. UTEP has a 25% chance of beating Southern Miss.
Major League Baseball
There will be no more baseball predictions for 2020. There’s a bug with my updating system, and I don’t have the time during football season to fix it. My apologies.
The matchup shows the projected FIP for each starting pitcher according to ZiPS.
The integer in parentheses gives the team’s rank in The Power Rank.
Since Aug 18, 2020, the team with the higher win probability has won 327 of 591 games for a win percentage of 55.3%.
The team favored by the markets has won 340.0 of 591 games for a win percentage of 57.5%.
European Club Soccer
These predictions are based on expected goals (xG) from past matches. This raw data is obtained from FBRef. I adjust for strength of schedule based on a least squares algorithm, which is equivalent to the Simple Rating System.
After these schedule adjustments, I have offensive and defensive ratings for each team. These numbers imply goal rates for each team in a match.
I assume a Poisson model and calculate the probability for a win, loss and draw. I’m assuming a home advantage of 0.12 goals based on matches with no fans.
To learn more about how the efficiency prediction works, check out my ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics.