The Power Rank uses data and analytics to make accurate predictions for football and March Madness. I developed these methods based on my PhD in applied math from Stanford.
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Major League Baseball
The matchup shows the projected FIP for each starting pitcher according to ZiPS.
The integer in parentheses gives the team’s rank in The Power Rank.
Since Jul 23, 2020, the team with the higher win probability has won 118 of 190 games for a win percentage of 62.1%.
The team favored by the markets has won 116.0 of 190 games for a win percentage of 61.1%.
Games on Sunday, August 09, 2020.
Baltimore (Asher Wojciechowski, 6.01) at Washington (Stephen Strasburg, 3.11).
Washington (8) has a 83.4 chance to beat Baltimore (30).
Atlanta (Huascar Ynoa, 5.06) at Philadelphia (Vince Velasquez, 4.45).
Philadelphia (17) has a 51.5 chance to beat Atlanta (7).
New York Yankees (James Paxton, 3.76) at Tampa Bay (Charlie Morton, 3.42).
New York Yankees (2) has a 53.5 chance to beat Tampa Bay (6).
Miami (Pablo Lopez, 4.21) at New York Mets (Jacob deGrom, 3.10).
New York Mets (11) has a 68.0 chance to beat Miami (25).
Detroit (Spencer Turnbull, 4.95) at Pittsburgh (Steven Brault, 4.88).
Pittsburgh (26) has a 55.2 chance to beat Detroit (29).
Toronto (Matt Shoemaker, 4.33) at Boston (Nathan Eovaldi, 4.44).
Boston (20) has a 54.0 chance to beat Toronto (23).
Minnesota (Jose Berrios, 4.16) at Kansas City (Brady Singer, 4.72).
Minnesota (4) has a 68.5 chance to beat Kansas City (27).
Cleveland (Shane Bieber, 3.49) at Chicago White Sox (Lucas Giolito, 3.35).
Cleveland (5) has a 51.6 chance to beat Chicago White Sox (14).
Cincinnati (Sonny Gray, 3.79) at Milwaukee (Brandon Woodruff, 3.79).
Cincinnati (10) has a 51.2 chance to beat Milwaukee (16).
Los Angeles Angels (Andrew Heaney, 4.11) at Texas (Lance Lynn, 4.09).
Los Angeles Angels (18) has a 52.3 chance to beat Texas (22).
Colorado (German Marquez, 3.72) at Seattle (Justus Sheffield, 4.73).
Colorado (21) has a 65.5 chance to beat Seattle (28).
San Francisco (Kevin Gausman, 3.61) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Walker Buehler, 3.38).
Los Angeles Dodgers (1) has a 71.7 chance to beat San Francisco (24).
Arizona (Madison Bumgarner, 4.58) at San Diego (Dinelson Lamet, 4.31).
San Diego (13) has a 54.8 chance to beat Arizona (19).
Houston (Cristian Javier, 5.40) at Oakland (Jesus Luzardo, 3.80).
Oakland (9) has a 57.7 chance to beat Houston (3).
Atlanta (Max Fried, 3.71) at Philadelphia (Spencer Howard, 4.31).
Atlanta (7) has a 57.2 chance to beat Philadelphia (17).
European Club Soccer
These predictions are based on expected goals (xG) from past matches. This raw data is obtained from FBRef. I adjust for strength of schedule based on a least squares algorithm, which is equivalent to the Simple Rating System.
After these schedule adjustments, I have offensive and defensive ratings for each team. These numbers imply goal rates for each team in a match.
I assume a Poisson model and calculate the probability for a win, loss and draw. I’m assuming a home advantage of 0.12 goals based on matches with no fans.
To learn more about how the efficiency prediction works, check out my ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics.