The Power Rank uses data and analytics to make accurate predictions for football and March Madness. I developed these methods based on my PhD in applied math from Stanford.
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College Basketball
These predictions are based on my college basketball team rankings. The higher ranked team by this model has won 71.3% of tournament games since the 2005 tournament.
Members of The Power Rank have access to more accurate predictions. To learn more, click here.
Games on Saturday, February 27, 2021.
1. Texas at Texas Tech.
Texas Tech (25) will beat Texas (21) by 0.9 at home. Texas has a 47% chance of beating Texas Tech.
2. Oklahoma State at Oklahoma.
Oklahoma (18) will beat Oklahoma State (29) by 2.9 at home. Oklahoma State has a 41% chance of beating Oklahoma.
3. Illinois at Wisconsin.
Illinois (8) will beat Wisconsin (17) by 1.3 on the road. Wisconsin has a 46% chance of beating Illinois.
4. Louisville at Duke.
Duke (56) will beat Louisville (57) by 1.6 at home. Louisville has a 45% chance of beating Duke.
5. LSU at Arkansas.
Arkansas (22) will beat LSU (48) by 3.7 at home. LSU has a 38% chance of beating Arkansas.
6. UCLA at Colorado.
Colorado (13) will beat UCLA (36) by 5.2 at home. UCLA has a 34% chance of beating Colorado.
7. Boise State at San Diego State.
San Diego State (38) will beat Boise State (58) by 3.5 at home. Boise State has a 39% chance of beating San Diego State.
8. Florida at Kentucky.
Florida (32) will beat Kentucky (64) by 1.3 on the road. Kentucky has a 46% chance of beating Florida.
9. Florida State at North Carolina.
Florida State (14) will beat North Carolina (50) by 3.0 on the road. North Carolina has a 40% chance of beating Florida State.
10. Marquette at Connecticut.
Connecticut (31) will beat Marquette (68) by 5.0 at home. Marquette has a 34% chance of beating Connecticut.
11. VCU at Davidson.
VCU (45) will beat Davidson (73) by 1.4 on the road. Davidson has a 45% chance of beating VCU.
12. Syracuse at Georgia Tech.
Georgia Tech (42) will beat Syracuse (75) by 4.7 at home. Syracuse has a 35% chance of beating Georgia Tech.
13. Baylor at Kansas.
Baylor (2) will beat Kansas (19) by 8.0 on the road. Kansas has a 26% chance of beating Baylor.
14. Buffalo at Ohio.
Ohio (89) will beat Buffalo (98) by 2.3 at home. Buffalo has a 43% chance of beating Ohio.
15. Tennessee at Auburn.
Tennessee (24) will beat Auburn (69) by 2.9 on the road. Auburn has a 41% chance of beating Tennessee.
16. Creighton at Xavier.
Creighton (10) will beat Xavier (62) by 4.9 on the road. Xavier has a 35% chance of beating Creighton.
17. North Carolina Greensboro at East Tennessee State.
East Tennessee State (104) will beat North Carolina Greensboro (100) by 0.7 at home. North Carolina Greensboro has a 48% chance of beating East Tennessee State.
18. Washington State at Arizona State.
Arizona State (114) will beat Washington State (105) by 1.1 at home. Washington State has a 46% chance of beating Arizona State.
19. North Texas at Marshall.
Marshall (49) will beat North Texas (94) by 5.4 at home. North Texas has a 33% chance of beating Marshall.
20. Michigan at Indiana.
Michigan (3) will beat Indiana (35) by 9.1 on the road. Indiana has a 24% chance of beating Michigan.
21. TCU at Iowa State.
Iowa State (119) will beat TCU (120) by 1.8 at home. TCU has a 44% chance of beating Iowa State.
22. Furman at Wofford.
Furman (74) will beat Wofford (107) by 1.3 on the road. Wofford has a 46% chance of beating Furman.
23. St. Mary’s at Brigham Young.
Brigham Young (27) will beat St. Mary’s (93) by 7.3 at home. St. Mary’s has a 28% chance of beating Brigham Young.
24. East Carolina at Tulsa.
Tulsa (111) will beat East Carolina (127) by 2.5 at home. East Carolina has a 42% chance of beating Tulsa.
25. Alabama at Mississippi State.
Alabama (9) will beat Mississippi State (76) by 6.5 on the road. Mississippi State has a 30% chance of beating Alabama.
26. UCSB at UC Riverside.
UCSB (82) will beat UC Riverside (116) by 1.1 on the road. UC Riverside has a 46% chance of beating UCSB.
27. South Carolina at Georgia.
Georgia (88) will beat South Carolina (117) by 4.0 at home. South Carolina has a 37% chance of beating Georgia.
28. Oregon State at Stanford.
Stanford (63) will beat Oregon State (110) by 5.4 at home. Oregon State has a 33% chance of beating Stanford.
29. USC at Utah.
USC (15) will beat Utah (91) by 6.2 on the road. Utah has a 31% chance of beating USC.
30. La Salle at George Mason.
George Mason (145) will beat La Salle (147) by 1.7 at home. La Salle has a 44% chance of beating George Mason.
31. Rhode Island at Duquesne.
Rhode Island (79) will beat Duquesne (129) by 2.5 on the road. Duquesne has a 42% chance of beating Rhode Island.
32. Mississippi at Vanderbilt.
Mississippi (61) will beat Vanderbilt (126) by 3.5 on the road. Vanderbilt has a 39% chance of beating Mississippi.
33. Temple at UCF.
UCF (90) will beat Temple (140) by 5.3 at home. Temple has a 33% chance of beating UCF.
34. North Dakota State at South Dakota.
North Dakota State (144) will beat South Dakota (170) by 0.2 on the road. South Dakota has a 49% chance of beating North Dakota State.
35. Georgetown at DePaul.
Georgetown (102) will beat DePaul (159) by 2.4 on the road. DePaul has a 42% chance of beating Georgetown.
36. Drake at Bradley.
Drake (55) will beat Bradley (142) by 5.1 on the road. Bradley has a 34% chance of beating Drake.
37. Minnesota at Nebraska.
Minnesota (44) will beat Nebraska (137) by 6.3 on the road. Nebraska has a 31% chance of beating Minnesota.
38. Stony Brook versus Massachusetts Lowell at a neutral site.
Massachusetts Lowell (198) will beat Stony Brook (199) by 0.0 at a neutral site. Stony Brook has a 50% chance of beating Massachusetts Lowell.
39. Louisiana at Arkansas Little Rock.
Arkansas Little Rock (201) will beat Louisiana (193) by 1.0 at home. Louisiana has a 47% chance of beating Arkansas Little Rock.
40. San Francisco at Pacific.
San Francisco (123) will beat Pacific (180) by 2.0 on the road. Pacific has a 44% chance of beating San Francisco.
41. Notre Dame at Boston College.
Notre Dame (85) will beat Boston College (164) by 4.2 on the road. Boston College has a 37% chance of beating Notre Dame.
42. Miami (FL) at Clemson.
Clemson (37) will beat Miami (FL) (149) by 10.3 at home. Miami (FL) has a 21% chance of beating Clemson.
43. Belmont at Morehead State.
Belmont (81) will beat Morehead State (165) by 4.3 on the road. Morehead State has a 37% chance of beating Belmont.
44. Loyola Marymount at Gonzaga.
Gonzaga (1) will beat Loyola Marymount (132) by 23.6 at home. Loyola Marymount has a 5% chance of beating Gonzaga.
45. Charlotte at UTEP.
UTEP (184) will beat Charlotte (203) by 2.8 at home. Charlotte has a 41% chance of beating UTEP.
46. Boston University at Army.
Army (101) will beat Boston University (177) by 6.5 at home. Boston University has a 30% chance of beating Army.
47. Kent State at Miami (OH).
Kent State (86) will beat Miami (OH) (172) by 4.5 on the road. Miami (OH) has a 36% chance of beating Kent State.
48. Navy at Loyola (MD).
Navy (125) will beat Loyola (MD) (186) by 2.5 on the road. Loyola (MD) has a 42% chance of beating Navy.
49. Indiana State at Valparaiso.
Indiana State (131) will beat Valparaiso (190) by 2.2 on the road. Valparaiso has a 43% chance of beating Indiana State.
50. Georgia State at South Alabama.
Georgia State (143) will beat South Alabama (196) by 1.9 on the road. South Alabama has a 44% chance of beating Georgia State.
51. Austin Peay at Jacksonville State.
Jacksonville State (173) will beat Austin Peay (209) by 3.6 at home. Austin Peay has a 39% chance of beating Jacksonville State.
52. Wake Forest at Virginia Tech.
Virginia Tech (51) will beat Wake Forest (166) by 10.5 at home. Wake Forest has a 20% chance of beating Virginia Tech.
53. Samford at Citadel.
Citadel (222) will beat Samford (230) by 1.9 at home. Samford has a 44% chance of beating Citadel.
54. Oregon at California.
Oregon (39) will beat California (176) by 8.9 on the road. California has a 24% chance of beating Oregon.
55. Northern Iowa at Illinois State.
Illinois State (233) will beat Northern Iowa (212) by 0.1 at home. Northern Iowa has a 50% chance of beating Illinois State.
56. Arkansas State at Texas Arlington.
Texas Arlington (229) will beat Arkansas State (240) by 2.3 at home. Arkansas State has a 43% chance of beating Texas Arlington.
57. American at Bucknell.
Bucknell (257) will beat American (244) by 1.0 at home. American has a 47% chance of beating Bucknell.
58. Portland State at Northern Colorado.
Northern Colorado (262) will beat Portland State (251) by 1.0 at home. Portland State has a 47% chance of beating Northern Colorado.
59. Missouri State at Evansville.
Missouri State (108) will beat Evansville (218) by 5.1 on the road. Evansville has a 34% chance of beating Missouri State.
60. Quinnipiac at Marist.
Marist (253) will beat Quinnipiac (267) by 2.3 at home. Quinnipiac has a 43% chance of beating Marist.
61. Kansas State at West Virginia.
West Virginia (11) will beat Kansas State (195) by 17.1 at home. Kansas State has a 10% chance of beating West Virginia.
62. Washington at Arizona.
Arizona (47) will beat Washington (202) by 13.2 at home. Washington has a 15% chance of beating Arizona.
63. Rice at Louisiana Tech.
Louisiana Tech (80) will beat Rice (216) by 10.2 at home. Rice has a 21% chance of beating Louisiana Tech.
64. NJIT versus Albany at a neutral site.
Albany (200) will beat NJIT (256) by 3.0 at a neutral site. NJIT has a 40% chance of beating Albany.
65. Florida Atlantic at Southern Miss.
Florida Atlantic (228) will beat Southern Miss (266) by 0.5 on the road. Southern Miss has a 48% chance of beating Florida Atlantic.
66. UAB at UTSA.
UAB (112) will beat UTSA (223) by 5.5 on the road. UTSA has a 33% chance of beating UAB.
67. North Carolina Central at North Carolina A&T.
North Carolina A&T (287) will beat North Carolina Central (282) by 1.0 at home. North Carolina Central has a 47% chance of beating North Carolina A&T.
68. Appalachian State at Georgia Southern.
Appalachian State (208) will beat Georgia Southern (268) by 1.9 on the road. Georgia Southern has a 44% chance of beating Appalachian State.
69. Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan.
Eastern Michigan (295) will beat Northern Illinois (288) by 1.1 at home. Northern Illinois has a 47% chance of beating Eastern Michigan.
70. Mercer at Western Carolina.
Mercer (113) will beat Western Carolina (245) by 6.7 on the road. Western Carolina has a 29% chance of beating Mercer.
71. Southern Illinois at Loyola Chicago.
Loyola Chicago (16) will beat Southern Illinois (238) by 18.8 at home. Southern Illinois has a 8% chance of beating Loyola Chicago.
72. Pepperdine at San Diego.
Pepperdine (124) will beat San Diego (255) by 6.3 on the road. San Diego has a 31% chance of beating Pepperdine.
73. Elon at North Carolina Wilmington.
North Carolina Wilmington (232) will beat Elon (286) by 5.3 at home. Elon has a 34% chance of beating North Carolina Wilmington.
74. Presbyterian at Hampton.
Hampton (293) will beat Presbyterian (306) by 3.0 at home. Presbyterian has a 40% chance of beating Hampton.
75. Binghamton at Hartford.
Hartford (194) will beat Binghamton (283) by 6.9 at home. Binghamton has a 29% chance of beating Hartford.
76. Cal State Northridge at CSU Bakersfield.
CSU Bakersfield (161) will beat Cal State Northridge (275) by 8.3 at home. Cal State Northridge has a 25% chance of beating CSU Bakersfield.
77. North Florida at Stetson.
Stetson (249) will beat North Florida (296) by 5.0 at home. North Florida has a 34% chance of beating Stetson.
78. Louisiana Monroe at Texas State.
Texas State (167) will beat Louisiana Monroe (279) by 8.4 at home. Louisiana Monroe has a 25% chance of beating Texas State.
79. Southeast Missouri State at SIU Edwardsville.
Southeast Missouri State (269) will beat SIU Edwardsville (302) by 1.5 on the road. SIU Edwardsville has a 45% chance of beating Southeast Missouri State.
80. Central Michigan at Ball State.
Ball State (138) will beat Central Michigan (277) by 9.9 at home. Central Michigan has a 22% chance of beating Ball State.
81. South Carolina Upstate at High Point.
High Point (248) will beat South Carolina Upstate (299) by 5.4 at home. South Carolina Upstate has a 33% chance of beating High Point.
82. Manhattan at Siena.
Siena (151) will beat Manhattan (281) by 9.6 at home. Manhattan has a 22% chance of beating Siena.
83. Coastal Carolina at Troy.
Coastal Carolina (157) will beat Troy (284) by 6.3 on the road. Troy has a 31% chance of beating Coastal Carolina.
84. Weber State at Sacramento State.
Weber State (95) will beat Sacramento State (271) by 10.2 on the road. Sacramento State has a 21% chance of beating Weber State.
85. Western Michigan at Toledo.
Toledo (40) will beat Western Michigan (274) by 17.8 at home. Western Michigan has a 9% chance of beating Toledo.
86. Montana at Idaho State.
Montana (175) will beat Idaho State (290) by 5.9 on the road. Idaho State has a 32% chance of beating Montana.
87. Middle Tennessee at Old Dominion.
Old Dominion (174) will beat Middle Tennessee (291) by 8.9 at home. Middle Tennessee has a 24% chance of beating Old Dominion.
88. Southeastern Louisiana at Northwestern State.
Northwestern State (297) will beat Southeastern Louisiana (319) by 4.1 at home. Southeastern Louisiana has a 37% chance of beating Northwestern State.
89. Rider at St. Peter’s.
St. Peter’s (163) will beat Rider (289) by 9.5 at home. Rider has a 23% chance of beating St. Peter’s.
90. Lehigh at Lafayette.
Lafayette (214) will beat Lehigh (300) by 7.7 at home. Lehigh has a 27% chance of beating Lafayette.
91. Houston Baptist at McNeese State.
McNeese State (330) will beat Houston Baptist (324) by 0.1 at home. Houston Baptist has a 50% chance of beating McNeese State.
92. UT Rio Grande Valley at Utah Valley.
Utah Valley (215) will beat UT Rio Grande Valley (301) by 7.9 at home. UT Rio Grande Valley has a 26% chance of beating Utah Valley.
93. Grand Canyon at Seattle.
Grand Canyon (139) will beat Seattle (294) by 8.4 on the road. Seattle has a 25% chance of beating Grand Canyon.
94. Lipscomb at North Alabama.
Lipscomb (247) will beat North Alabama (315) by 4.0 on the road. North Alabama has a 37% chance of beating Lipscomb.
95. Long Beach State at Hawaii.
Hawaii (192) will beat Long Beach State (307) by 9.5 at home. Long Beach State has a 23% chance of beating Hawaii.
96. Alcorn State at Southern.
Southern (323) will beat Alcorn State (333) by 3.9 at home. Alcorn State has a 38% chance of beating Southern.
97. Nebraska Omaha at Denver.
Nebraska Omaha (308) will beat Denver (329) by 1.9 on the road. Denver has a 44% chance of beating Nebraska Omaha.
98. Nicholls at New Orleans.
Nicholls (206) will beat New Orleans (313) by 5.9 on the road. New Orleans has a 32% chance of beating Nicholls.
99. Murray State at Tennessee Tech.
Murray State (183) will beat Tennessee Tech (310) by 7.2 on the road. Tennessee Tech has a 28% chance of beating Murray State.
100. Western Illinois at Oral Roberts.
Oral Roberts (146) will beat Western Illinois (309) by 12.6 at home. Western Illinois has a 16% chance of beating Oral Roberts.
101. Tennessee State at Eastern Kentucky.
Eastern Kentucky (152) will beat Tennessee State (312) by 12.4 at home. Tennessee State has a 17% chance of beating Eastern Kentucky.
102. Air Force at Colorado State.
Colorado State (87) will beat Air Force (311) by 17.0 at home. Air Force has a 10% chance of beating Colorado State.
103. Stephen F. Austin at Lamar.
Stephen F. Austin (213) will beat Lamar (322) by 7.3 on the road. Lamar has a 28% chance of beating Stephen F. Austin.
104. Florida Gulf Coast at Kennesaw State.
Florida Gulf Coast (263) will beat Kennesaw State (328) by 5.4 on the road. Kennesaw State has a 33% chance of beating Florida Gulf Coast.
105. Abilene Christian at Central Arkansas.
Abilene Christian (78) will beat Central Arkansas (321) by 16.3 on the road. Central Arkansas has a 11% chance of beating Abilene Christian.
106. Prairie View A&M at Alabama A&M.
Prairie View A&M (236) will beat Alabama A&M (331) by 7.5 on the road. Alabama A&M has a 27% chance of beating Prairie View A&M.
107. Grambling State at Arkansas Pine Bluff.
Grambling State (314) will beat Arkansas Pine Bluff (338) by 4.8 on the road. Arkansas Pine Bluff has a 35% chance of beating Grambling State.
108. Tennessee-Martin at Eastern Illinois.
Eastern Illinois (259) will beat Tennessee-Martin (334) by 10.6 at home. Tennessee-Martin has a 20% chance of beating Eastern Illinois.
109. UC Davis at Cal Poly.
UC Davis (264) will beat Cal Poly (336) by 7.7 on the road. Cal Poly has a 27% chance of beating UC Davis.
110. Coppin State at Delaware State.
Coppin State (265) will beat Delaware State (337) by 7.8 on the road. Delaware State has a 27% chance of beating Coppin State.
111. Texas Southern at Alabama State.
Texas Southern (252) will beat Alabama State (340) by 10.6 on the road. Alabama State has a 20% chance of beating Texas Southern.
112. San Jose State at Wyoming.
Wyoming (207) will beat San Jose State (339) by 15.7 at home. San Jose State has a 12% chance of beating Wyoming.
113. Florida A&M at South Carolina State.
Florida A&M (239) will beat South Carolina State (341) by 11.2 on the road. South Carolina State has a 19% chance of beating Florida A&M.
114. Jackson State at Mississippi Valley State.
Jackson State (317) will beat Mississippi Valley State (343) by 16.6 on the road. Mississippi Valley State has a 10% chance of beating Jackson State.
NFL
These predictions are based on my team rankings that take margin of victory in games and adjusts for strength of schedule. There is also a preseason component that gets less weight with each week.
Members of The Power Rank have access to more accurate ensemble predictions. To learn more, click here.
1. Kansas City versus Tampa Bay at a neutral site.
Kansas City (1) will beat Tampa Bay (3) by 1.3 at a neutral site. Tampa Bay has a 46% chance of beating Kansas City.
College Football
In 2020, the college football team rankings are based on games from the 2019 and 2020 season, with the current season getting twice the weight. A home field of 1.2 points is used.
This prediction below based on points is off and favors the wrong team. Members of The Power Rank have access to more accurate predictions based on more data sources. To learn more, click here.
1. Ohio State versus Alabama at a neutral site.
Ohio State (1) will beat Alabama (2) by 1.5 at a neutral site. Alabama has a 46% chance of beating Ohio State.
Major League Baseball
There will be no more baseball predictions for 2020. There’s a bug with my updating system, and I don’t have the time during football season to fix it. My apologies.
The matchup shows the projected FIP for each starting pitcher according to ZiPS.
The integer in parentheses gives the team’s rank in The Power Rank.
Since Aug 18, 2020, the team with the higher win probability has won 327 of 591 games for a win percentage of 55.3%.
The team favored by the markets has won 340.0 of 591 games for a win percentage of 57.5%.
European Club Soccer
These predictions are based on expected goals (xG) from past matches. This raw data is obtained from FBRef. I adjust for strength of schedule based on a least squares algorithm, which is equivalent to the Simple Rating System.
After these schedule adjustments, I have offensive and defensive ratings for each team. These numbers imply goal rates for each team in a match.
I assume a Poisson model and calculate the probability for a win, loss and draw. I’m assuming a home advantage of 0.12 goals based on matches with no fans.
To learn more about how the efficiency prediction works, check out my ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics.