The Power Rank uses data and analytics to make accurate predictions for football and March Madness. I developed these methods based on my Ph.D. in applied math from Stanford.
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College Football Bowls
These predictions based on adjusted margin of victory have predicted the winner in 74.5% of games straight up during the 2016 and 2017 seasons (1133-388). This record does not include any cupcake FBS vs FCS games.
I make more accurate predictions by combining these points based numbers with data from the markets and play by play. You can grab these predictions for both spreads and totals in The Power Rank 2018 Bowl Season Report.
1. LSU versus UCF at a neutral site.
LSU (5) will beat UCF (10) by 2.4 at a neutral site. UCF has a 43% chance of beating LSU.
2. Kentucky versus Penn State at a neutral site.
Kentucky (16) will beat Penn State (18) by 1.6 at a neutral site. Penn State has a 45% chance of beating Kentucky.
3. Florida versus Michigan at a neutral site.
Michigan (7) will beat Florida (14) by 3.5 at a neutral site. Florida has a 40% chance of beating Michigan.
4. Washington versus Ohio State at a neutral site.
Ohio State (6) will beat Washington (13) by 3.7 at a neutral site. Washington has a 39% chance of beating Ohio State.
5. West Virginia versus Syracuse at a neutral site.
West Virginia (17) will beat Syracuse (20) by 1.5 at a neutral site. Syracuse has a 45% chance of beating West Virginia.
6. Notre Dame versus Clemson at a neutral site.
Clemson (2) will beat Notre Dame (4) by 7.6 at a neutral site. Notre Dame has a 29% chance of beating Clemson.
7. Miami (FL) versus Wisconsin at a neutral site.
Wisconsin (30) will beat Miami (FL) (32) by 0.2 at a neutral site. Miami (FL) has a 49% chance of beating Wisconsin.
8. Mississippi State versus Iowa at a neutral site.
Mississippi State (9) will beat Iowa (19) by 5.2 at a neutral site. Iowa has a 35% chance of beating Mississippi State.
9. Iowa State versus Washington State at a neutral site.
Washington State (24) will beat Iowa State (29) by 2.2 at a neutral site. Iowa State has a 44% chance of beating Washington State.
10. Northwestern versus Utah at a neutral site.
Utah (22) will beat Northwestern (31) by 2.4 at a neutral site. Northwestern has a 43% chance of beating Utah.
11. Purdue versus Auburn at a neutral site.
Auburn (15) will beat Purdue (26) by 4.6 at a neutral site. Purdue has a 36% chance of beating Auburn.
12. Boston College versus Boise State at a neutral site.
Boise State (34) will beat Boston College (42) by 2.0 at a neutral site. Boston College has a 44% chance of beating Boise State.
13. Michigan State versus Oregon at a neutral site.
Michigan State (28) will beat Oregon (38) by 3.0 at a neutral site. Oregon has a 41% chance of beating Michigan State.
14. Fresno State versus Arizona State at a neutral site.
Fresno State (27) will beat Arizona State (39) by 3.2 at a neutral site. Arizona State has a 41% chance of beating Fresno State.
15. Minnesota versus Georgia Tech at a neutral site.
Georgia Tech (44) will beat Minnesota (49) by 0.9 at a neutral site. Minnesota has a 47% chance of beating Georgia Tech.
16. Temple versus Duke at a neutral site.
Duke (40) will beat Temple (48) by 1.5 at a neutral site. Temple has a 45% chance of beating Duke.
17. Missouri versus Oklahoma State at a neutral site.
Missouri (12) will beat Oklahoma State (33) by 7.5 at a neutral site. Oklahoma State has a 29% chance of beating Missouri.
18. Stanford versus Pittsburgh at a neutral site.
Stanford (25) will beat Pittsburgh (41) by 4.4 at a neutral site. Pittsburgh has a 37% chance of beating Stanford.
19. California versus TCU at a neutral site.
TCU (53) will beat California (56) by 0.7 at a neutral site. California has a 48% chance of beating TCU.
20. Oklahoma versus Alabama at a neutral site.
Alabama (1) will beat Oklahoma (8) by 18.9 at a neutral site. Oklahoma has a 9% chance of beating Alabama.
21. Texas versus Georgia at a neutral site.
Georgia (3) will beat Texas (21) by 15.7 at a neutral site. Texas has a 13% chance of beating Georgia.
22. North Carolina State versus Texas A&M at a neutral site.
Texas A&M (11) will beat North Carolina State (37) by 9.3 at a neutral site. North Carolina State has a 25% chance of beating Texas A&M.
23. South Carolina versus Virginia at a neutral site.
South Carolina (23) will beat Virginia (52) by 6.6 at a neutral site. Virginia has a 31% chance of beating South Carolina.
24. Houston versus Army at a neutral site.
Army (55) will beat Houston (62) by 2.4 at a neutral site. Houston has a 43% chance of beating Army.
25. Georgia Southern versus Eastern Michigan at a neutral site.
Georgia Southern (75) will beat Eastern Michigan (77) by 0.2 at a neutral site. Eastern Michigan has a 49% chance of beating Georgia Southern.
26. Cincinnati versus Virginia Tech at a neutral site.
Cincinnati (50) will beat Virginia Tech (66) by 3.6 at a neutral site. Virginia Tech has a 39% chance of beating Cincinnati.
27. Memphis versus Wake Forest at a neutral site.
Memphis (43) will beat Wake Forest (64) by 4.6 at a neutral site. Wake Forest has a 37% chance of beating Memphis.
28. Baylor versus Vanderbilt at a neutral site.
Vanderbilt (35) will beat Baylor (61) by 5.8 at a neutral site. Baylor has a 33% chance of beating Vanderbilt.
29. Buffalo versus Troy at a neutral site.
Buffalo (65) will beat Troy (76) by 1.6 at a neutral site. Troy has a 45% chance of beating Buffalo.
30. San Diego State versus Ohio at a neutral site.
Ohio (57) will beat San Diego State (71) by 3.2 at a neutral site. San Diego State has a 41% chance of beating Ohio.
31. Middle Tennessee versus Appalachian State at a neutral site.
Appalachian State (46) will beat Middle Tennessee (67) by 4.3 at a neutral site. Middle Tennessee has a 37% chance of beating Appalachian State.
32. North Texas versus Utah State at a neutral site.
Utah State (36) will beat North Texas (70) by 6.8 at a neutral site. North Texas has a 31% chance of beating Utah State.
33. UAB versus Northern Illinois at a neutral site.
Northern Illinois (74) will beat UAB (85) by 1.8 at a neutral site. UAB has a 45% chance of beating Northern Illinois.
34. Marshall versus South Florida at a neutral site.
Marshall (81) will beat South Florida (87) by 1.9 at a neutral site. South Florida has a 44% chance of beating Marshall.
35. Arkansas State versus Nevada at a neutral site.
Arkansas State (89) will beat Nevada (94) by 1.4 at a neutral site. Nevada has a 46% chance of beating Arkansas State.
36. Florida International versus Toledo at a neutral site.
Toledo (79) will beat Florida International (98) by 4.6 at a neutral site. Florida International has a 37% chance of beating Toledo.
37. Tulane versus Louisiana at a neutral site.
Tulane (92) will beat Louisiana (99) by 2.8 at a neutral site. Louisiana has a 42% chance of beating Tulane.
38. Western Michigan versus Brigham Young at a neutral site.
Brigham Young (68) will beat Western Michigan (96) by 6.0 at a neutral site. Western Michigan has a 33% chance of beating Brigham Young.
39. Louisiana Tech at Hawaii.
Louisiana Tech (90) will beat Hawaii (107) by 2.3 on the road. Hawaii has a 43% chance of beating Louisiana Tech.
NFL, Week 15
These numbers are based on my NFL team rankings which take margin of victory and adjust for strength of schedule. I also keep a preseason component whose weight diminishes with each passing week.
Members of The Power Rank have access to more accurate predictions based on additional sources of data such as the markets, yards per play and success rate. To learn more, click here.
1. New England at Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh (5) will beat New England (4) by 0.2 at home. New England has a 49% chance of beating Pittsburgh.
2. Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City.
Kansas City (3) will beat Los Angeles Chargers (6) by 4.9 at home. Los Angeles Chargers has a 35% chance of beating Kansas City.
3. Green Bay at Chicago.
Chicago (7) will beat Green Bay (14) by 4.6 at home. Green Bay has a 35% chance of beating Chicago.
4. Philadelphia at Los Angeles Rams.
Los Angeles Rams (2) will beat Philadelphia (12) by 7.1 at home. Philadelphia has a 29% chance of beating Los Angeles Rams.
5. New Orleans at Carolina.
New Orleans (1) will beat Carolina (15) by 4.4 on the road. Carolina has a 36% chance of beating New Orleans.
6. Tennessee at New York Giants.
New York Giants (21) will beat Tennessee (16) by 0.2 at home. Tennessee has a 49% chance of beating New York Giants.
7. Dallas at Indianapolis.
Indianapolis (20) will beat Dallas (13) by 0.1 at home. Dallas has a 50% chance of beating Indianapolis.
8. Washington at Jacksonville.
Jacksonville (18) will beat Washington (26) by 4.8 at home. Washington has a 35% chance of beating Jacksonville.
9. Cleveland at Denver.
Denver (17) will beat Cleveland (25) by 5.3 at home. Cleveland has a 34% chance of beating Denver.
10. Tampa Bay at Baltimore.
Baltimore (8) will beat Tampa Bay (24) by 8.2 at home. Tampa Bay has a 26% chance of beating Baltimore.
11. Seattle at San Francisco.
Seattle (10) will beat San Francisco (27) by 2.9 on the road. San Francisco has a 41% chance of beating Seattle.
12. Miami at Minnesota.
Minnesota (11) will beat Miami (28) by 8.8 at home. Miami has a 24% chance of beating Minnesota.
13. Oakland at Cincinnati.
Cincinnati (23) will beat Oakland (31) by 6.3 at home. Oakland has a 31% chance of beating Cincinnati.
14. Arizona at Atlanta.
Atlanta (19) will beat Arizona (30) by 7.3 at home. Arizona has a 28% chance of beating Atlanta.
15. Houston at New York Jets.
Houston (9) will beat New York Jets (29) by 5.1 on the road. New York Jets has a 34% chance of beating Houston.
16. Detroit at Buffalo.
Detroit (22) will beat Buffalo (32) by 2.3 on the road. Buffalo has a 43% chance of beating Detroit.
NFL Draft by Wisdom of Crowds
To check out my wisdom of crowds predictions for the 2018 NFL Draft, click here.
International Soccer/Football
My rankings were a part of an academic study on making football predictions.
Major League Baseball
College Basketball
National Basketball Association
To get details on my NBA model for 2018 and series win win probability before the NBA Finals, click here.
