Predictions

Do you need accurate football and March Madness predictions? The Power Rank seeks to make the best possible predictions based on data and computers.

It started with team rankings that take margin of victory and adjust for strength of schedule. Back in 2008, I developed an algorithm that makes these adjustments.

Each year in July, I release a college football win totals report. These numbers are based on my preseason ranking which have predicted the game winner in 70.8% of games (1452-598 with no prediction in 235 games) over the past 3 seasons.

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National Basketball Association

These numbers consider data from games and the markets. They do not consider injuries or games in which star players did not play.

To see an interactive visual with win probabilities before the playoffs started, click here.

Games on Tuesday, May 23, 2017.

1. Boston at Cleveland.
Cleveland (5) will beat Boston (7) by 6.7 at home. Boston has a 28% chance of beating Cleveland.

NBA Series Win Probabilities

These were series win probabilities before the start of each series.

San Antonio vs Golden State.
Golden State, the home team tied 0-0, has a 70.4 percent chance of winning the series.

Cleveland vs Boston.
Boston, the home team tied 0-0, has a 45.1 percent chance of winning the series.

Major League Baseball

The matchup shows the projected FIP (adjusted ERA) for each starting pitcher according to ZiPS.

The integer in parentheses gives the team’s rank in The Power Rank.

Since Apr 27, 2017, the team with the higher win probability has won 184 of 340 games for a win percentage of 54.1%.

The team favored by the markets has won 183.5 of 340 games for a win percentage of 54.0%.

Games on Tuesday, May 23, 2017.

San Francisco (Johnny Cueto, 3.46) at Chicago Cubs (Jon Lester, 3.38).
Chicago Cubs (9) has a 58.4 chance to beat San Francisco (20).

Colorado (German Marquez, 4.61) at Philadelphia (Zach Eflin, 4.64).
Colorado (10) has a 58.1 chance to beat Philadelphia (28).

Pittsburgh (Tyler Glasnow, 4.08) at Atlanta (R.A. Dickey, 4.98).
Pittsburgh (23) has a 56.9 chance to beat Atlanta (26).

San Diego (Jhoulys Chacin, 4.36) at New York Mets (Matt Harvey, 4.33).
New York Mets (29) has a 54.3 chance to beat San Diego (30).

St. Louis (Lance Lynn, 4.28) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw, 2.42).
Los Angeles Dodgers (3) has a 71.0 chance to beat St. Louis (11).

Minnesota (Ervin Santana, 4.32) at Baltimore (Dylan Bundy, 3.93).
Baltimore (16) has a 53.2 chance to beat Minnesota (13).

Kansas City (Danny Duffy, 3.70) at New York Yankees (Jordan Montgomery, 4.64).
New York Yankees (1) has a 61.9 chance to beat Kansas City (25).

Los Angeles Angels (Matt Shoemaker, 4.01) at Tampa Bay (Alex Cobb, 4.07).
Tampa Bay (4) has a 59.3 chance to beat Los Angeles Angels (15).

Texas (Andrew Cashner, 4.75) at Boston (Rick Porcello, 3.74).
Boston (8) has a 64.7 chance to beat Texas (19).

Detroit (Jordan Zimmermann, 4.51) at Houston (Lance McCullers, 3.33).
Houston (2) has a 70.3 chance to beat Detroit (18).

Seattle (Christian Bergman, 4.48) at Washington (Joe Ross, 3.76).
Washington (7) has a 63.0 chance to beat Seattle (17).

Cleveland (Carlos Carrasco, 3.19) at Cincinnati (Amir Garrett, 5.21).
Cleveland (5) has a 71.3 chance to beat Cincinnati (21).

Toronto (Joe Biagini, 3.66) at Milwaukee (Jimmy Nelson, 4.35).
Toronto (14) has a 57.7 chance to beat Milwaukee (24).

Chicago White Sox (Dylan Covey, 6.12) at Arizona (Patrick Corbin, 4.47).
Arizona (6) has a 70.8 chance to beat Chicago White Sox (22).

Miami (Jose Urena, 4.53) at Oakland (Jesse Hahn, 4.27).
Oakland (12) has a 60.1 chance to beat Miami (27).

NFL Draft

To check out my wisdom of crowds predictions for the 2017 NFL Draft, click here.

College Basketball, Tournament Games

To see the tourney win probability for each team in an interactive bracket, click here.

College Football

During the 2016 season, these college football predictions predicted the winner in 72.7% of games (550-206).

During the 2015 season, these college football predictions predicted the winner in 76.2% of games (583-182).

These record do not include any cupcake FBS vs FCS games.

International Soccer

My rankings were a part of an academic study on making football predictions.

To check out my Euro 2016 win probabilities before the knock out stage started, click here.