Predictions

Do you need accurate football and March Madness predictions? The Power Rank seeks to make the best possible predictions based on data and computers.

It started with team rankings that take margin of victory and adjust for strength of schedule. Based on my Ph.D. from Stanford, I developed an algorithm that makes these adjustments, and this page contains predictions from these team rankings.

I also create member predictions for college football and the NFL. These predictions use data beyond margin of victory to make more accurate predictions.

I offer a sample of these member predictions and analysis in my free email newsletter. To get these emails, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”








NFL, Week 11

These predictions come from team rankings based on margin of victory adjusted for strength of schedule.

Members of The Power Rank have access to more accurate ensemble predictions that also use data from games and markets. Members also get predictions for totals.

To learn more about becoming a member, click here.

1. Atlanta at Seattle.
Seattle (8) will beat Atlanta (6) by 2.1 at home. Atlanta has a 44% chance of beating Seattle.

2. Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota.
Minnesota (7) will beat Los Angeles Rams (9) by 3.6 at home. Los Angeles Rams has a 40% chance of beating Minnesota.

3. Philadelphia at Dallas.
Philadelphia (4) will beat Dallas (11) by 0.3 on the road. Dallas has a 49% chance of beating Philadelphia.

4. Baltimore at Green Bay.
Green Bay (12) will beat Baltimore (18) by 5.1 at home. Baltimore has a 36% chance of beating Green Bay. I wrote about a different prediction for this game based on market rankings.

5. Washington at New Orleans.
New Orleans (5) will beat Washington (15) by 7.3 at home. Washington has a 31% chance of beating New Orleans.

6. Tennessee at Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh (2) will beat Tennessee (16) by 7.9 at home. Tennessee has a 29% chance of beating Pittsburgh.

7. Buffalo at Los Angeles Chargers.
Los Angeles Chargers (17) will beat Buffalo (21) by 4.4 at home. Buffalo has a 38% chance of beating Los Angeles Chargers.

8. Cincinnati at Denver.
Denver (26) will beat Cincinnati (24) by 2.2 at home. Cincinnati has a 44% chance of beating Denver.

9. New England versus Oakland at a neutral site.
New England (1) will beat Oakland (19) by 7.5 at a neutral site. Oakland has a 30% chance of beating New England.

10. Detroit at Chicago.
Detroit (14) will beat Chicago (23) by 1.3 on the road. Chicago has a 46% chance of beating Detroit.

11. Tampa Bay at Miami.
Miami (27) will beat Tampa Bay (22) by 1.1 at home. Tampa Bay has a 47% chance of beating Miami.

12. Arizona at Houston.
Houston (20) will beat Arizona (29) by 5.5 at home. Arizona has a 35% chance of beating Houston.

13. Kansas City at New York Giants.
Kansas City (3) will beat New York Giants (25) by 5.7 on the road. New York Giants has a 35% chance of beating Kansas City.

14. Jacksonville at Cleveland.
Jacksonville (13) will beat Cleveland (32) by 7.8 on the road. Cleveland has a 29% chance of beating Jacksonville.

College Football, Week 12

These predictions based on the team rankings have predicted the winner in 74.5% of games during the 2016 and 2017 seasons (1133-388). This record does not include any cupcake FBS vs FCS games.

Members of The Power Rank have access to more accurate ensemble predictions that also use data from games and markets. Members also get predictions for totals.

To learn more, click here.

1. Syracuse at Louisville.
Louisville (26) will beat Syracuse (30) by 4.3 at home. Syracuse has a 37% chance of beating Louisville.

2. North Carolina State at Wake Forest.
Wake Forest (27) will beat North Carolina State (21) by 0.4 at home. North Carolina State has a 49% chance of beating Wake Forest.

3. Michigan at Wisconsin.
Wisconsin (6) will beat Michigan (19) by 9.0 at home. Michigan has a 25% chance of beating Wisconsin.

4. Texas at West Virginia.
West Virginia (32) will beat Texas (24) by 0.3 at home. Texas has a 49% chance of beating West Virginia.

5. Kansas State at Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma State (13) will beat Kansas State (34) by 9.4 at home. Kansas State has a 25% chance of beating Oklahoma State.

6. Arizona at Oregon.
Oregon (55) will beat Arizona (50) by 2.5 at home. Arizona has a 43% chance of beating Oregon.

7. Minnesota at Northwestern.
Northwestern (29) will beat Minnesota (42) by 7.3 at home. Minnesota has a 29% chance of beating Northwestern.

8. Texas A&M at Mississippi.
Texas A&M (33) will beat Mississippi (52) by 1.2 on the road. Mississippi has a 46% chance of beating Texas A&M.

9. Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech.
Virginia Tech (17) will beat Pittsburgh (39) by 11.1 at home. Pittsburgh has a 21% chance of beating Virginia Tech.

10. SMU at Memphis.
Memphis (43) will beat SMU (62) by 5.6 at home. SMU has a 34% chance of beating Memphis.

11. Missouri at Vanderbilt.
Vanderbilt (71) will beat Missouri (65) by 2.2 at home. Missouri has a 44% chance of beating Vanderbilt.

12. TCU at Texas Tech.
TCU (11) will beat Texas Tech (41) by 7.5 on the road. Texas Tech has a 29% chance of beating TCU.

13. LSU at Tennessee.
LSU (16) will beat Tennessee (46) by 6.1 on the road. Tennessee has a 32% chance of beating LSU.

14. Georgia Tech at Duke.
Georgia Tech (12) will beat Duke (45) by 7.6 on the road. Duke has a 29% chance of beating Georgia Tech.

15. Utah at Washington.
Washington (14) will beat Utah (51) by 13.1 at home. Utah has a 17% chance of beating Washington.

16. Navy at Notre Dame.
Notre Dame (10) will beat Navy (48) by 15.4 at home. Navy has a 14% chance of beating Notre Dame.

17. Iowa State at Baylor.
Iowa State (28) will beat Baylor (60) by 4.2 on the road. Baylor has a 38% chance of beating Iowa State.

18. UCLA at USC.
USC (23) will beat UCLA (59) by 11.8 at home. UCLA has a 20% chance of beating USC.

19. Western Michigan at Northern Illinois.
Northern Illinois (78) will beat Western Michigan (70) by 1.3 at home. Western Michigan has a 46% chance of beating Northern Illinois.

20. Kentucky at Georgia.
Georgia (9) will beat Kentucky (53) by 16.6 at home. Kentucky has a 12% chance of beating Georgia.

21. Purdue at Iowa.
Iowa (20) will beat Purdue (63) by 13.4 at home. Purdue has a 17% chance of beating Iowa.

22. Maryland at Michigan State.
Michigan State (35) will beat Maryland (74) by 9.3 at home. Maryland has a 25% chance of beating Michigan State.

23. Virginia at Miami (FL).
Miami (FL) (5) will beat Virginia (58) by 19.4 at home. Virginia has a 9% chance of beating Miami (FL).

24. California at Stanford.
Stanford (22) will beat California (68) by 13.6 at home. California has a 16% chance of beating Stanford.

25. Nebraska at Penn State.
Penn State (7) will beat Nebraska (73) by 21.2 at home. Nebraska has a 7% chance of beating Penn State.

26. Mississippi State at Arkansas.
Mississippi State (25) will beat Arkansas (76) by 8.0 on the road. Arkansas has a 28% chance of beating Mississippi State.

27. Fresno State at Wyoming.
Wyoming (82) will beat Fresno State (86) by 5.1 at home. Fresno State has a 35% chance of beating Wyoming.

28. Tulsa at South Florida.
South Florida (37) will beat Tulsa (81) by 11.0 at home. Tulsa has a 21% chance of beating South Florida.

29. Middle Tennessee State at Western Kentucky.
Western Kentucky (91) will beat Middle Tennessee State (83) by 1.6 at home. Middle Tennessee State has a 45% chance of beating Western Kentucky.

30. Eastern Michigan at Miami (OH).
Miami (OH) (95) will beat Eastern Michigan (87) by 1.8 at home. Eastern Michigan has a 45% chance of beating Miami (OH).

31. UCF at Temple.
UCF (18) will beat Temple (79) by 11.2 on the road. Temple has a 21% chance of beating UCF.

32. Marshall at UTSA.
Marshall (80) will beat UTSA (94) by 0.5 on the road. UTSA has a 48% chance of beating Marshall.

33. Massachusetts at Brigham Young.
Brigham Young (92) will beat Massachusetts (99) by 5.1 at home. Massachusetts has a 35% chance of beating Brigham Young.

34. Rutgers at Indiana.
Indiana (61) will beat Rutgers (93) by 9.8 at home. Rutgers has a 24% chance of beating Indiana.

35. Air Force at Boise State.
Boise State (44) will beat Air Force (90) by 12.0 at home. Air Force has a 19% chance of beating Boise State.

36. Houston at Tulane.
Houston (38) will beat Tulane (89) by 7.8 on the road. Tulane has a 28% chance of beating Houston.

37. Coastal Carolina at Idaho.
Idaho (109) will beat Coastal Carolina (114) by 3.4 at home. Coastal Carolina has a 40% chance of beating Idaho.

38. UNLV at New Mexico.
New Mexico (110) will beat UNLV (116) by 3.5 at home. UNLV has a 40% chance of beating New Mexico.

39. Louisiana Monroe at Auburn.
Auburn (3) will beat Louisiana Monroe (102) by 31.5 at home. Louisiana Monroe has a 2% chance of beating Auburn.

40. Hawaii at Utah State.
Utah State (106) will beat Hawaii (113) by 4.0 at home. Hawaii has a 38% chance of beating Utah State.

41. New Mexico State at Louisiana Lafayette.
Louisiana Lafayette (121) will beat New Mexico State (117) by 1.8 at home. New Mexico State has a 45% chance of beating Louisiana Lafayette.

42. Illinois at Ohio State.
Ohio State (8) will beat Illinois (103) by 27.6 at home. Illinois has a 4% chance of beating Ohio State.

43. Arizona State at Oregon State.
Arizona State (57) will beat Oregon State (97) by 6.4 on the road. Oregon State has a 32% chance of beating Arizona State.

44. Ohio at Akron.
Ohio (66) will beat Akron (101) by 5.6 on the road. Akron has a 34% chance of beating Ohio.

45. Army at North Texas.
Army (77) will beat North Texas (105) by 4.0 on the road. North Texas has a 38% chance of beating Army.

46. Oklahoma at Kansas.
Oklahoma (4) will beat Kansas (120) by 28.9 on the road. Kansas has a 3% chance of beating Oklahoma.

47. South Alabama at Georgia Southern.
South Alabama (104) will beat Georgia Southern (123) by 1.9 on the road. Georgia Southern has a 44% chance of beating South Alabama.

48. Cincinnati at East Carolina.
Cincinnati (100) will beat East Carolina (122) by 2.3 on the road. East Carolina has a 43% chance of beating Cincinnati.

49. Nevada at San Diego State.
San Diego State (64) will beat Nevada (111) by 14.1 at home. Nevada has a 15% chance of beating San Diego State.

50. Florida International at Florida Atlantic.
Florida Atlantic (75) will beat Florida International (115) by 12.9 at home. Florida International has a 18% chance of beating Florida Atlantic.

51. Boston College versus Connecticut at a neutral site.
Boston College (40) will beat Connecticut (108) by 14.3 at a neutral site. Connecticut has a 15% chance of beating Boston College.

52. Toledo at Bowling Green.
Toledo (54) will beat Bowling Green (118) by 11.0 on the road. Bowling Green has a 21% chance of beating Toledo.

53. UAB at Florida.
Florida (47) will beat UAB (119) by 18.1 at home. UAB has a 10% chance of beating Florida.

54. Buffalo at Ball State.
Buffalo (96) will beat Ball State (124) by 5.6 on the road. Ball State has a 34% chance of beating Buffalo.

55. Rice at Old Dominion.
Old Dominion (112) will beat Rice (127) by 11.1 at home. Rice has a 21% chance of beating Old Dominion.

56. Charlotte at Southern Miss.
Southern Miss (98) will beat Charlotte (126) by 13.7 at home. Charlotte has a 16% chance of beating Southern Miss.

57. Central Michigan at Kent State.
Central Michigan (84) will beat Kent State (125) by 9.9 on the road. Kent State has a 23% chance of beating Central Michigan.

58. Texas State at Arkansas State.
Arkansas State (85) will beat Texas State (128) by 17.1 at home. Texas State has a 11% chance of beating Arkansas State.

59. San Jose State at Colorado State.
Colorado State (69) will beat San Jose State (129) by 22.4 at home. San Jose State has a 6% chance of beating Colorado State.

60. Louisiana Tech at UTEP.
Louisiana Tech (88) will beat UTEP (130) by 13.9 on the road. UTEP has a 16% chance of beating Louisiana Tech.

International Soccer

My rankings were a part of an academic study on making football predictions.

NFL Draft

To check out my wisdom of crowds predictions for the 2017 NFL Draft, click here.

College Basketball, Tournament Games

To see the tourney win probability for each team in an interactive bracket, click here.

Major League Baseball

National Basketball Association

To see an interactive visual with win probabilities before the 2017 playoffs started, click here.