Predictions

The Power Rank uses data and analytics to make accurate predictions for football and March Madness. I developed these methods based on my PhD in applied math from Stanford.

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Major League Baseball

The matchup shows the projected FIP (adjusted ERA) for each starting pitcher according to ZiPS.

The integer in parentheses gives the team’s rank in The Power Rank, which now include data from the current season.

Since Apr 10, 2019, the team with the higher win probability has won 1373 of 2313 games for a win percentage of 59.4%.

The team favored by the markets has won 1394.0 of 2313 games for a win percentage of 60.3%.

Games on Sunday, October 13, 2019.

New York Yankees (James Paxton, 3.59) at Houston (Justin Verlander, 3.30).
Houston (1) has a 62.0 chance to beat New York Yankees (3).

NFL, Week 6

These predictions are based on my team rankings that take margin of victory in games and adjust for schedule. There is also a preseason component whose weight diminishes with every week.

Members of The Power Rank have access to more accurate predictions. To learn more, click here.

1. San Francisco at Los Angeles Rams.
Los Angeles Rams (4) will beat San Francisco (3) by 1.1 at home. San Francisco has a 47% chance of beating Los Angeles Rams.

2. Philadelphia at Minnesota.
Minnesota (9) will beat Philadelphia (5) by 0.6 at home. Philadelphia has a 48% chance of beating Minnesota.

3. Pittsburgh at Los Angeles Chargers.
Los Angeles Chargers (16) will beat Pittsburgh (10) by 0.5 at home. Pittsburgh has a 48% chance of beating Los Angeles Chargers.

4. Carolina versus Tampa Bay at a neutral site.
Carolina (14) will beat Tampa Bay (20) by 1.5 at a neutral site. Tampa Bay has a 45% chance of beating Carolina.

5. Seattle at Cleveland.
Seattle (11) will beat Cleveland (21) by 0.1 on the road. Cleveland has a 50% chance of beating Seattle.

6. Houston at Kansas City.
Kansas City (2) will beat Houston (15) by 6.9 at home. Houston has a 29% chance of beating Kansas City.

7. New Orleans at Jacksonville.
New Orleans (7) will beat Jacksonville (19) by 1.6 on the road. Jacksonville has a 45% chance of beating New Orleans.

8. Tennessee at Denver.
Denver (26) will beat Tennessee (23) by 0.6 at home. Tennessee has a 48% chance of beating Denver.

9. Detroit at Green Bay.
Green Bay (6) will beat Detroit (22) by 6.2 at home. Detroit has a 31% chance of beating Green Bay.

10. Dallas at New York Jets.
Dallas (13) will beat New York Jets (27) by 2.2 on the road. New York Jets has a 43% chance of beating Dallas.

11. Cincinnati at Baltimore.
Baltimore (17) will beat Cincinnati (29) by 7.2 at home. Cincinnati has a 28% chance of beating Baltimore.

12. Atlanta at Arizona.
Atlanta (24) will beat Arizona (30) by 2.6 on the road. Arizona has a 42% chance of beating Atlanta.

13. New York Giants at New England.
New England (1) will beat New York Giants (28) by 16.9 at home. New York Giants has a 10% chance of beating New England.

14. Washington at Miami.
Washington (31) will beat Miami (32) by 7.6 on the road. Miami has a 27% chance of beating Washington.

College Football, Week 7

These predictions are a combination of my preseason model and team rankings (margin of victory adjusted for strength of schedule) from this year.

Members of The Power Rank have access to more accurate predictions. To learn more, click here.

1. Michigan State at Wisconsin.
Wisconsin (13) will beat Michigan State (12) by 2.6 at home. Michigan State has a 42% chance of beating Wisconsin.

2. Florida at LSU.
LSU (4) will beat Florida (9) by 10.8 at home. Florida has a 22% chance of beating LSU.

3. Washington State at Arizona State.
Arizona State (24) will beat Washington State (34) by 5.4 at home. Washington State has a 34% chance of beating Arizona State.

4. Penn State at Iowa.
Penn State (10) will beat Iowa (26) by 2.6 on the road. Iowa has a 42% chance of beating Penn State.

5. Virginia at Miami (FL).
Virginia (25) will beat Miami (FL) (41) by 0.2 on the road. Miami (FL) has a 49% chance of beating Virginia.

6. Oklahoma versus Texas at a neutral site.
Oklahoma (5) will beat Texas (17) by 11.3 at a neutral site. Texas has a 21% chance of beating Oklahoma.

7. Cincinnati at Houston.
Houston (48) will beat Cincinnati (35) by 0.7 at home. Cincinnati has a 48% chance of beating Houston.

8. Texas Tech at Baylor.
Baylor (23) will beat Texas Tech (42) by 7.9 at home. Texas Tech has a 28% chance of beating Baylor.

9. Mississippi at Missouri.
Missouri (15) will beat Mississippi (36) by 9.4 at home. Mississippi has a 24% chance of beating Missouri.

10. Nebraska at Minnesota.
Minnesota (38) will beat Nebraska (54) by 5.8 at home. Nebraska has a 33% chance of beating Minnesota.

11. Fresno State at Air Force.
Air Force (55) will beat Fresno State (61) by 4.1 at home. Fresno State has a 38% chance of beating Air Force.

12. USC at Notre Dame.
Notre Dame (7) will beat USC (31) by 14.6 at home. USC has a 15% chance of beating Notre Dame.

13. Alabama at Texas A&M.
Alabama (1) will beat Texas A&M (20) by 15.8 on the road. Texas A&M has a 13% chance of beating Alabama.

14. Washington at Arizona.
Washington (22) will beat Arizona (50) by 3.7 on the road. Arizona has a 39% chance of beating Washington.

15. Iowa State at West Virginia.
Iowa State (16) will beat West Virginia (49) by 4.4 on the road. West Virginia has a 37% chance of beating Iowa State.

16. South Carolina at Georgia.
Georgia (6) will beat South Carolina (32) by 16.4 at home. South Carolina has a 12% chance of beating Georgia.

17. Wyoming at San Diego State.
San Diego State (70) will beat Wyoming (74) by 3.5 at home. Wyoming has a 40% chance of beating San Diego State.

18. Navy at Tulsa.
Tulsa (76) will beat Navy (69) by 2.3 at home. Navy has a 43% chance of beating Tulsa.

19. Syracuse at North Carolina State.
North Carolina State (72) will beat Syracuse (58) by 0.4 at home. Syracuse has a 49% chance of beating North Carolina State.

20. Florida State at Clemson.
Clemson (3) will beat Florida State (45) by 21.8 at home. Florida State has a 7% chance of beating Clemson.

21. Louisville at Wake Forest.
Wake Forest (53) will beat Louisville (73) by 7.2 at home. Louisville has a 30% chance of beating Wake Forest.

22. Mississippi State at Tennessee.
Mississippi State (30) will beat Tennessee (67) by 4.0 on the road. Tennessee has a 38% chance of beating Mississippi State.

23. Colorado at Oregon.
Oregon (11) will beat Colorado (63) by 15.4 at home. Colorado has a 14% chance of beating Oregon.

24. Hawaii at Boise State.
Boise State (29) will beat Hawaii (71) by 10.9 at home. Hawaii has a 21% chance of beating Boise State.

25. North Texas at Southern Miss.
Southern Miss (84) will beat North Texas (88) by 4.0 at home. North Texas has a 38% chance of beating Southern Miss.

26. Arkansas at Kentucky.
Kentucky (44) will beat Arkansas (78) by 10.0 at home. Arkansas has a 23% chance of beating Kentucky.

27. Maryland at Purdue.
Purdue (68) will beat Maryland (86) by 6.6 at home. Maryland has a 31% chance of beating Purdue.

28. Memphis at Temple.
Memphis (28) will beat Temple (81) by 7.1 on the road. Temple has a 30% chance of beating Memphis.

29. Appalachian State at Louisiana.
Appalachian State (27) will beat Louisiana (80) by 7.5 on the road. Louisiana has a 29% chance of beating Appalachian State.

30. Northern Illinois at Ohio.
Ohio (85) will beat Northern Illinois (92) by 5.2 at home. Northern Illinois has a 35% chance of beating Ohio.

31. Utah at Oregon State.
Utah (19) will beat Oregon State (82) by 10.3 on the road. Oregon State has a 23% chance of beating Utah.

32. Ball State at Eastern Michigan.
Ball State (91) will beat Eastern Michigan (104) by 0.2 on the road. Eastern Michigan has a 49% chance of beating Ball State.

33. Louisiana Monroe at Texas State.
Texas State (109) will beat Louisiana Monroe (97) by 0.5 at home. Louisiana Monroe has a 49% chance of beating Texas State.

34. San Jose State at Nevada.
Nevada (112) will beat San Jose State (108) by 1.5 at home. San Jose State has a 46% chance of beating Nevada.

35. Georgia State at Coastal Carolina.
Coastal Carolina (102) will beat Georgia State (111) by 5.1 at home. Georgia State has a 35% chance of beating Coastal Carolina.

36. Army at Western Kentucky.
Army (66) will beat Western Kentucky (98) by 5.1 on the road. Western Kentucky has a 35% chance of beating Army.

37. Michigan at Illinois.
Michigan (21) will beat Illinois (96) by 14.5 on the road. Illinois has a 15% chance of beating Michigan.

38. Miami (OH) at Western Michigan.
Western Michigan (83) will beat Miami (OH) (106) by 9.3 at home. Miami (OH) has a 25% chance of beating Western Michigan.

39. Georgia Tech at Duke.
Duke (40) will beat Georgia Tech (100) by 16.3 at home. Georgia Tech has a 12% chance of beating Duke.

40. Brigham Young at South Florida.
Brigham Young (62) will beat South Florida (103) by 7.2 on the road. South Florida has a 30% chance of beating Brigham Young.

41. Middle Tennessee at Florida Atlantic.
Florida Atlantic (64) will beat Middle Tennessee (105) by 12.8 at home. Middle Tennessee has a 18% chance of beating Florida Atlantic.

42. Charlotte at Florida International.
Florida International (107) will beat Charlotte (117) by 6.7 at home. Charlotte has a 31% chance of beating Florida International.

43. Colorado State at New Mexico.
Colorado State (113) will beat New Mexico (122) by 1.8 on the road. New Mexico has a 44% chance of beating Colorado State.

44. Old Dominion at Marshall.
Marshall (90) will beat Old Dominion (119) by 12.7 at home. Old Dominion has a 18% chance of beating Marshall.

45. UNLV at Vanderbilt.
Vanderbilt (75) will beat UNLV (120) by 16.7 at home. UNLV has a 12% chance of beating Vanderbilt.

46. Rutgers at Indiana.
Indiana (52) will beat Rutgers (121) by 21.9 at home. Rutgers has a 7% chance of beating Indiana.

47. Kent State at Akron.
Kent State (116) will beat Akron (127) by 4.9 on the road. Akron has a 36% chance of beating Kent State.

48. New Mexico State at Central Michigan.
Central Michigan (101) will beat New Mexico State (125) by 13.1 at home. New Mexico State has a 17% chance of beating Central Michigan.

49. Connecticut at Tulane.
Tulane (65) will beat Connecticut (124) by 21.2 at home. Connecticut has a 7% chance of beating Tulane.

50. UAB at UTSA.
UAB (89) will beat UTSA (126) by 12.3 on the road. UTSA has a 19% chance of beating UAB.

51. Toledo at Bowling Green.
Toledo (79) will beat Bowling Green (128) by 17.7 on the road. Bowling Green has a 11% chance of beating Toledo.

52. Massachusetts at Louisiana Tech.
Louisiana Tech (99) will beat Massachusetts (130) by 24.3 at home. Massachusetts has a 5% chance of beating Louisiana Tech.

World Soccer Football

College basketball

These college basketball predictions come from my points based team rankings.

National Basketball Association

To get details on my NBA model for 2018 and series win win probability before the NBA Finals, click here.