Making better football bets with PhD level analytics
You want to win at sports betting. It’s 2026, and the emergence of prediction markets in addition to sportsbook apps gives you more ways to bet than ever.
However, it’s hard to win at football. NFL spreads are widely considered the hardest market to beat because of massive liquidity. College football is not that much easier.
In this uphill battle, you can’t just wait for lukewarm water to separate into hot and cold. A membership to The Power rank combines Ph.D. analytics with over a decade of experience to give you an edge.
When you come in and bet me, believe me, I’m going to move the hell out of those numbers.
Chris Andrews, director of the South Point sports book on The Football Analytics Show
From academia to football analytics
Hi, my name is Ed Feng. I’m the founder of The Power Rank, a company that uses analytics and insight to win at sports betting.
While I’ve been a crazy fan my entire life, I never expected to work in the sports world. After getting my PhD from Stanford in chemical engineering, I was one of many in search of an academic job.
That changed in 2008. I was reading the paper on Google’s PageRank algorithm and realized all of its similarities with my research. This inspired me to develop a new method for ranking teams.
I worked out some NFL rankings and sent an email to my friends. Enough of them were intrigued for me to explore other sports. As The Power Rank become my full time job, my numbers and content have appeared in a wide range of media outlets.
How to beat the football markets
Over the past decade, my work has shifted more towards sports betting with each passing year. There are two steps towards enlightened football betting.
Predictive analytics
The Power Rank algorithm takes metrics like margin of victory and adjusts for strength of schedule. The original calculations considered margin of victory, and these team rankings are still available to the public. For members of The Power Rank, I have applied my algorithm to more detailed metrics over the past decade.
My most trusted NFL predictions consider success rate, or a metric that consider the context of every play. For example, to have a successful play on 3rd and 7, the offense must get a first down.
In the NFL, I take a quarterback’s success rate on passing plays and adjust for opposing defenses. In the past few years, these QB specific numbers drive my NFL predictions.
For the past four seasons (2022-25), here is how these predictions have performed against the spread (ATS). I only include games in which the prediction differs from the market by a point or more since those are the games in which the model potentially shows value.
- NFL: 51.8% against the closing market (396-369 with 21 pushes).
My college football and basketball predictions use a different model that responds more aggressively to recent performance.
In college football for the 2023 through 2025 seasons, here are the ATS results when the prediction differs from the market by a point or more.
- CFB: 51.9% against the opening market (908-840 with 27 pushes)
- CFB: 51.5% against the closing market (886-835 with 47 pushes)
In college basketball, here are the ATS results for the three seasons starting in 2023 and ending in 2026. Like for college football, these results consider games in which the prediction differs from the market by a point or more.
- CBB: 53.9% against the opening market (4444-3804 with 145 pushes)
- CBB: 51.3% against the closing market (4474-4250 with 91 pushes)
The college predictions are more powerful against the softer opening market, so I post these predictions early (Sunday morning for college football, the day before for college basketball).
Betting insight
I do not recommend making sports bets based only on my predictions, as factors such as injuries can impact the outcome of a game.
In addition, you can pick up critical clues by understanding the floor and ceiling of a team based on personnel. For example, a pass offense led by future Hall of Fame QB Patrick Mahomes might have potential even if the numbers suggest more average play.
It takes years of looking at numbers and markets to get a sense for winning sports betting. I use this experience on top of my analytics to identify profitable bets. For college football and NFL (mostly spreads but a few totals), here are the results of my member analysis over the past three seasons:
- 2025: 44-32.
- 2024: 30-20.
- 2023: 24-20 with 1 push.
Note that the volume of bets increased in 2025, and I plan to continue on that pace.
As someone who studies football for a living, it’s extremely valuable to have other people in the industry who you can trust and bounce ideas off of. Ed’s analysis is one of the first I go to on a week-to-week basis, and should be one of yours as well.
— Dr. Eric Eager, VP of Football Analytics, Carolina Panthers.
The Power Rank is a website that I’ve used for multiple years since meeting you. I particularly like the written content that you do. It’s unique and covers a range of sports and topics.
— Rob Pizzola, Professional Sports Bettor, Founder of the Hammer Network.
Sometimes, a model just works without much subjective adjustments. During COVID, I developed an interception model based on how often the quarterback throws the football into dangerous situations. Here are the results of NFL interception props almost entirely driven by this model:
- 2025: 37-35 for +6.78 units.
- 2024: 27-22 for +4.9 units.
- 2023: 51-39 for +22.99 units.
Become a member of The Power Rank
Ed’s football numbers have become a core part of my handicapping process. The predictions are sharp and the weekly analysis provides useful context. The college football numbers adjust swiftly each week to stay one step ahead of the betting markets. A must have for any part-time or professional.
— Jordan, Member of The Power Rank.
As a member of The Power Rank, you get the following:
- Weekly member analysis on NFL and college football spreads, NFL interception props.
- Predictions for the spread in every NFL game, posted by noon Eastern on Tuesday.
- Predictions for the spread in every college football game and totals starting week 5. These predictions are posted on Sunday to take advantage of a beatable early market.
- Predictions for the spread in every college basketball game.
- Data files with the NFL and college football predictions. You can upload these files to a spreadsheet to perform your own analysis.
- My full bracket advice for the NCAA tournament.
- A Member Content Library with evergreen material on home/rest advantage in football, the wisdom of crowds and more.
It starts with an algorithm I’ve developed that does for sports analytics what Google’s PageRank did for web search: brings order and insight into a messy system. This algorithm leads to NFL predictive analytics that have gone 51.8% against the closing spread.
I combine these numbers in the NFL and college football with a deep knowledge of teams to provide analysis on profitable bets. Over the past three seasons, these spread bets have won at better than a 57% rate.
To become a member of The Power Rank for $99 per year and get instant access to the PhD level predictive analytics and premium content, click on the orange “Add To Cart” button.
This membership renews every year. You can cancel anytime and not get charged ever again.
30 day, no hassle, money back guarantee
Please take up to 30 days to evaluate any of the predictions and analytics of a membership to The Power Rank. If you’re not satisfied for any reason, I will refund your money.
No questions asked, no hard feelings.
Simply reply to the email you’ll get when you purchase. I will personally take care of the rest.
Member testimonials about The Power Rank
When I started betting football seriously, I quickly found that data and analytics is essential to being a consistent winner.
What I like so much about The Power Rank is that it not only provides excellent rankings and predictions, but also adjusted numbers for “real” football stats like Yards Per Play and Success Rate.
Having “real” football stats adjusted for strength of schedule helps me recognize and exploit inefficiencies in the betting markets.
Jordan Jones, member of The Power Rank
I spent a long time searching the web for analytics rather than picks. I finally found it with The Power Rank.
I signed up for the power rating and point spread analysis for football and am quite pleased with the offerings.
I need to have consistent line anticipation/prediction through objective reasoning to begin my weekly evaluation. Your site offers such reasoning on an excellent basis.
You provide an excellent foundation for determining the correct line. This assists me greatly with establishing my betting line for the week, and I’m able to adjust my line for non-objective factors knowing that objective factors have been taken into account.
I would recommend a membership to anyone in search of strong analytical reasoning and objective line determination.
— Jeff, Las Vegas, Nevada.
The March Madness bracket advice has helped many members win their pool.
Thanks to The Power Rank, I won my pool in 2019. I had Virginia winning.
Guess how many games I’ve watched this season? Literally zero. I only used the cheat sheet you provide through my membership to The Power Rank.
I had guys in my pool that have watched college basketball for decades, and I beat them all.
— Mark Carvalho, member of The Power Rank
I first heard about the The Power Rank on one of Gill Alexander’s podcasts. Gill said Ed was one of the few people he trusted that made money in the analytics business besides Rufus Peabody.
Ed releases great member numbers for college football and the NFL. For under $100 annually this is the best bargain in the industry in my opinion.
— Member of The Power Rank from Georgia.
Analytics experts such as Bill Connelly of ESPN trust my work.