You’re smarter than the average football fan.
It’s 2021, and you recognize the value in data and analytics to make football predictions. This is true whether you wager on games, enter pools, or want to win an argument with a friend.
With the inherent complexities of football, there’s more to predictions than analytics. However, the numbers provide an objective baseline with which to start your analysis.
In addition, you have an open mind about football and other sports. You acknowledge that data can reveal the hidden truth in sports, whether it’s how to predict interceptions in football or the optimal strategy behind filling out your March Madness bracket.
I first heard about the The Power Rank on one of Gill Alexander’s podcasts. Gill said Ed was one of the few people he trusted that made money in the analytics business besides Rufus Peabody.
Ed releases great member numbers for college football and the NFL. For under $100 annually this is the best bargain in the industry in my opinion.
— Member of The Power Rank from Georgia.
To become a member of The Power Rank or get The Power Rank 2021 NFL Playoff Report, click here.
From academia to football analytics
Hi, my name is Ed Feng. I’m the founder of The Power Rank, a company devoted better sports betting through analytics.
While I’ve been a crazy fan my entire life, I never expected to work in the sports world. After getting my PhD from Stanford in chemical engineering, I was one of many in search of an academic job.
That changed in 2008. I was reading the paper on Google’s PageRank algorithm and realized all of its similarities with my research. This inspired me to develop a new method for ranking teams.
I worked out some NFL rankings and sent an email to my friends. Enough of them were intrigued for me to explore other sports. It became an obsession, and I found a way to make The Power Rank my job.
In March of 2012, SB Nation made a video of my March Madness analytics. In January of 2013, I accurately predicted Alabama would beat Notre Dame on the cover of Sports Illustrated. They called me their analytics expert.
Since then, my numbers and content have appeared in a wide range of media outlets.
In addition, the ideas in my Amazon best selling book How to Win Your NCAA Tournament Pool have helped many people win their March Madness pool.
To become a member of The Power Rank and get all my best analytics, click here.
How to make football predictions
I want to tell you about the membership product that gives you access to my best football predictions. But first, let’s take a look under the hood at the engine that drives these analytics.
The foundation of my football analytics is accurate adjustments for strength of schedule. This started when I developed a ranking algorithm based on my PhD research at Stanford.
Let’s look at how my algorithm ranks NFL teams on offense and defense based on success rate, a powerful efficiency metric. In my methods, a play is a success if it obtains 50% of the necessary yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd and 4th down.
- It gets the play by play data from every NFL game. While this includes up to 267 games for an NFL season, it can be thousands in college football.
- The algorithm creates a network in which the offense and defense of each team are nodes and games are edges that connect the nodes. This was inspired by Google’s PageRank method, which brought order and insight to the complex world of web search.
- From this network, the method develops a set of equations to be solved. For the NFL, there are 64 equations (two for each team) with 64 unknown variables.
- The algorithm solves for the 64 variables simultaneously. This is the key to accurately accounting for strength of schedule. Many other ranking systems do not do this.
- Finally, the variable for each unit (offense or defense) is transformed into a rating that gives an expected success rate against an average team.
On every morning after an NFL or college game, my MacBook Air crunches the numbers. The resulting rankings allow me to make predictions for point spreads and totals.
When I started betting football seriously, I quickly found that data and analytics is essential to being a consistent winner.
What I like so much about The Power Rank is that it not only provides excellent rankings and predictions, but also adjusted numbers for “real” football stats like Yards Per Play and Sack Rate.
Having “real” football stats adjusted for strength of schedule helps me recognize and exploit inefficiencies in the betting markets.
Jordan Jones, member of The Power Rank
Accuracy of the predictions
Members of The Power Rank have access to my best computer predictions for the NFL and college football. In 2021, I’m tracking the accuracy of predictions against the median closing market value from major books as tracked by KO STATS.
Football spreads
From the beginning of the 2019 through the end of the regular season of the 2021 season, the NFL predictions have gone 53.1% against the closing market spread (304-269 with 12 pushes). This only includes games in which the prediction differs from the closing spread by more than a point.
During this three season period, the root mean square error (rms) of the NFL predictions has been 13.23 compared to 13.12 for the closing markets. My predictions have been within 0.8% of the markets.
The results have not been quite as strong in 2021, as the predictions are 51.6% (98-92 with 3 pushes). The rms error has been within 1.1% of the markets.
Here are the results for college football for the last two seasons since I developed a new model. This only includes games in which the prediction differs from the closing market by more than a half point.
- 2021: 47.4% (315-349 with 10 pushes), rms error within 1.7% of the markets
- 2020: 53.7% (248-214 with 11 pushes), rms error within 1.4% of the markets
While the predictions have struggled against the closing market in 2021, they performed better against the markets earlier in the week. Andrew Percival tracks the performance of a variety of predictions, and he has found that the member predictions have gone 50.8% ATS, best among a variety of predictions. This is a clear signal the predictions are useful for betting early.
Football totals
Here are the results for my totals predictions in 2021.
- 2021 NFL totals from week 4 through the end of the regular season: 54.5% (104-87 with 2 pushes)
- 2021 college football totals from week 6 through most bowls: 53.0% (238-211 with 2 pushes)
In terms of rms error, the NFL total predictions have been within 1.4% of the markets. The college football predictions have been within 0.6% of the markets.
College basketball spreads
I post college basketball predictions the day before games are played, so I report results against both the opening and closing markets as tracked by KO STATS. These results are from the beginning of the season through Thursday, January 6, 2022.
- Opening spread: 52.6% ATS (862-776 with 28 pushes), within 0.2% of the markets by rms error.
- Closing spread: 50.6% ATS (857-837 with 31 pushes), within 1.0% of the markets by rms error.
Later in the season, I will introduce a second model that has performed well later in the season.
Be smart
I do not recommend making wagers based only on these numbers. The computer predictions should serve as an objective baseline for analyzing a game. Success in the sports markets requires not only analytics for predictions but also wide spread knowledge of injuries and market movement.
I spent a long time searching the web for analytics rather than picks. I finally found it with The Power Rank.
I signed up for the power rating and point spread analysis for football and am quite pleased with the offerings.
I need to have consistent line anticipation/prediction through objective reasoning to begin my weekly evaluation. Your site offers such reasoning on an excellent basis.
You provide an excellent foundation for determining the correct line. This assists me greatly with establishing my betting line for the week, and I’m able to adjust my line for non-objective factors knowing that objective factors have been taken into account.
I would recommend a membership to anyone in search of strong analytical reasoning and objective line determination.
— Jeff, Las Vegas, Nevada.
A membership to The Power Rank does not offer picks on football games. Instead, members get predictive analytics that help you make better decisions.
Become a member of The Power Rank
When you come in and bet me, believe me, I’m going to move the hell out of those numbers.
Chris Andrews, director of the South Point sports book on The Football Analytics Show
As a member of The Power Rank, you get the following:
- Predictions for the spread and total in every NFL game.
- Predictions for the spread in every college basketball game.
- Weekly member analysis during football season that breaks down games based on The Power Rank’s analytics.
- A pdf copy of the book The Logic of Sports Betting by Ed Miller and Matthew Davidow.
- Predictions for the spread and total in every college football game.
- Data files with rankings for college football and NFL teams based on metrics such as success rate and yards per play. You can upload these files to a spreadsheet to perform your own analysis.
- My full bracket advice for the NCAA tournament.
The March Madness bracket advice has helped many members win their pool.
Thanks to The Power Rank, I won my pool in 2019. I had Virginia winning.
Guess how many games I’ve watched this season? Literally zero. I only used the cheat sheet you provide through my membership to The Power Rank.
I had guys in my pool that have watched college basketball for decades, and I beat them all.
— Mark Carvalho, member of The Power Rank
All football predictions are posted by Tuesday at noon Eastern at the very latest during the football season.
It starts with an algorithm I’ve developed that does for sports analytics what Google’s PageRank did for web search: brings order and insight into a messy system.
To get a deeper insight, the algorithm is used to rank offenses and defenses based on efficiency metrics like success rate. The statistics make you smarter about football because they account for strength of schedule.
For less than $5 a week during the football season, you get access to all the football predictions and analytics at The Power Rank.
A membership to The Power Rank is neither a handicapping service that provides picks or a get rich quick program. If you want either of these things, please save us both time and do not become a member.
However, if you recognize the power in using analytics as an objective baseline for making predictions, then you have found the right place on the internet.
To become a member of The Power Rank for $99 per year and get instant access to the premium content, click on the orange “Add To Cart” button.
This membership renews every year. You can cancel anytime.
The Power Rank 2021 NFL Playoff Report
This report has three key features:
- Member predictions for spreads and totals in all NFL playoff games.
- Write ups on all games that provide context to the predictions.
- Super Bowl props analysis.
This is the only time of year that the NFL predictions are available outside a yearly recurring membership.
To get The Power Rank 2021 NFL Playoff Report for $19, click on “Get the NFL Playoff Report.”
Get the NFL Playoff Report
30 day, no hassle, money back guarantee
Please take up to 30 days to evaluate any of the predictions and analytics of a membership to The Power Rank. If you’re not satisfied for any reason, I will refund your money.
There is no refund for the bowl or NFL playoff report since the games all occur within 30 days.
No questions asked, no hard feelings.
Simply reply to the email you’ll get when you purchase. I will personally take care of the rest.