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Arkansas win total – Sam Pittman has performed a miracle in Fayetteville. He inherited a program with a 2-10 record in 2019 and went 9-4 last season. In addition, Arkansas gets QB KJ Jefferson back this season.
However, Arkansas loses a ton of talent on defense. Pittman will primarily rely on transfers to keep up their performance on this side of the ball.
In The Power Rank’s college football win total predictions, Arkansas projects for 6.0 wins. Life is difficult in the SEC West, a division in which all seven teams rank in the top 30 of The Power Rank. This suggests under 7.5 wins for the Razorbacks.
Top down vs bottom up – On an episode of The Football Analytics Show, Captain Jack Andrews, founder of Unabated, compared and contrasted these two approaches. However, he ended the segment with some advice: use both.
As an example, he talked about two different ways to bet the NFL:
- To bet spreads, look for when sharp sports books move, and then bet at the recreational books slow to follow this move. This is the top down, steam chasing approach.
- To bet player props, develop your own model for tight ends. This prop market is easier to beat, and books will take reasonable sized bets.
With two different profitable ways of betting, you not only win more money but smooth out the variance in your earnings. Captain Jack also discussed the tools at Unabated, book making and how exchanges work in an excellent episode of The Football Analytics Show.
NFL Preseason Totals – After one week of riveting preseason games, we’ve found an unusual betting trend. As radio host Joe Ostrowski pointed out, not only are overs 14-3 coming into this week, most totals cleared the mark by more than a touchdown and several were by double-digits.
There may not be one overarching reason why. Offenses are still running vanilla plays, and it does not seem like starters are playing significantly more than they normally do. It could also be small sample size.
But, sports books are adjusting. Of the 12 games to be played in the second week of the preseason, four have a total of at least 40. Proceed cautiously.
Daniel Jones Hype – At least in my universe, it seems like another expert I trust is expressing optimism for Giants quarterback Daniel Jones. Whether it’s JJ Zachariason on The Football Analytics Show podcast or Josh Hermsmeyer on FiveThirtyEight, having some of the braintrust behind Buffalo’s offensive revolution joining the G-Men seems to be reason for an uptick. After all, they have nowhere to go but up.
However, before placing overs on any Jones props, the Giants’ backup is veteran Tyrod Taylor, who does have some experience running play action (on play action plays from 2019-2021, Taylor has a higher completion percentage over expected than Jones but a lower EPA/dropback). In a way, Brian Daboll does have a rip cord.
American League Rookie of the Year – It seemed like Seattle outfielder Julio Rodriguez was going to run away with this award. He’s about to lead the Mariners to their first postseason appearance since the George W. Bush Administration, nearly won the Home Run Derby and is dangerously close to finishing with 25 home runs this season.
However, as I wrote for FOX Sports this week, there’s a case to be made Baltimore catcher Adley Rutschman. He could do enough in these finals weeks to snag the award away from Rodriguez. Simply looking at his odds shorten substantially since the All-Star Break is a sign the market thinks this wunderkind has a chance.
SEC humor – “Please wait for me to call the Music City Bowl prospects boarding group. Thank you.” SEC Shorts brings the laughs with their latest video on SEC teams boarding for the 2022 season.
WNBA Playoffs – There’s a case for nearly every underdog in every WNBA playoff series this year. Aside from New York upsetting Chicago Wednesday night, Dallas has found an offensive spark retooling its starting lineup, Washington finally has Elena Delle Donne back, etc.
But, just like other levels of basketball, Dean Oliver’s Four Factors are just as relevant: shooting, rebounds, turnovers and free throw rate. Using this approach, there may be value betting on Connecticut to win the championship (+300 on FanDuel, an increase in win probability from +360), followed by the Sky even though they’re trailing in their best-of-three series (+600, an increase in probability from 700).
Data driven betting information
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