Your weekly dose of sports betting news and tips, each Saturday at 10am Eastern.
Nebraska at Northwestern – On Tuesday, the spread got as high as Nebraska -13.5 for their match up in Dublin against Northwestern. Sharp bettors said to hell with The Power Rank’s numbers and supported Scott Frost and his attempts to revive this Cornhuskers program.
The markets have since shifted to Nebraska -11.5 as of Saturday morning (you can check the daily progression of the market on the free Unabated odds screen). This is much closer to prediction of Nebraska by 10.4 by The Power Rank’s public prediction.
To get predictions for all college football games this season, check out the public predictions page at The Power Rank.
Worst NFL Record – Here’s a fun way to start your weekend: making money off of the misery of others!!! Who will have the worst record in the NFL? There seems to be a consensus among sports books that Houston should be the favorite.
However, The Power Rank’s member rankings actually have the second-favorite in Atlanta as the weakest team in the NFL. The Falcons also have a slightly tougher schedule having to face Tampa Bay twice, the Rams and the AFC North, while the Texans get the weaker NFC East.
The evolution of the Kansas City offense – On The Football Analytics Show, NFL bettor Fabian Sommer broke down how the offense of the Chiefs changed last season.
As defenses played two deep safeties to take away the deep pass, the offense went to shorter passes. During the second half of the season, the Chiefs had the lowest average depth of target (ADOT) but second highest yards after catch. This evolution helped them finish first in The Power Rank’s adjusted passing success rate.
Despite the loss of WR Tyreek Hill, Fabian thinks the Kansas City offense will excel in 2022. He also broke down coaching changes at three NFL teams and two win totals he likes in an excellent episode of The Football Analytics Show.
MLB Injuries – One of the bigger factors that make betting futures so volatile is predicting injuries. It’s foolish to assume the full health of any team. At the same time, predicting injuries is quite the challenge.
I wrote about some things to think about for FOX Sports when it comes health in October. Those factors include average age of the roster, injury history (a prior injury implies an increased odds of getting hurt again) and, specifically with pitchers, average velocity.
These factors point to why the Phillies and Guardians may have betting value, simply because they could be the healthiest in October.
Big 12 Futures – The Power Five conference that has the most uncertainty is the Big 12. On FanDuel, the Big 12 favorite has the longest odds among all favorites (Oklahoma at +200). The Sooners have a new head coach, new transfer quarterback and questions concerning its offensive line.
Kelley Ford has put together some outstanding visualizations representing expectations for season win totals. You see why he has OU as the team to beat in the Big 12 and also breakdowns for every other conference.
U.S. Open – The final tennis Grand Slam event of the year begins Monday. With Novak Djokovic’s absence due to his vaccination status, the men’s draw has opened up considerably. Defending champion Daniil Medvedev is the favorite (+230 on FanDuel) but Tennis Abstract lists Carlos Alcaraz as having the highest Elo rating among those competing (+500 on FanDuel).
On the women’s side, this tournament is Iga Swiatek’s to lose. The world’s #1 player leads the WTA Tour in return games won at 52.1% and has victories on this surface at Doha, Indian Wells and Miami. By the way, Serena Williams is 50-1 if you’re feeling nostalgic.
The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals – NBA betting legend Haralabob Voulgaris tweeted the following about Ed Feng’s recent curated summary of the best podcast interviews:
In addition to Voulgaris, the article looks at the following pro sports bettors:
- Alan Boston
- Rufus Peabody
The article digs into how professionals originate, view closing line value and get down.
Data driven betting information
These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:
Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet.
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