Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
Oklahoma State at Houston, College Football Week 7 – After getting benched for Marcel Reed in 2024, Connor Weigman transferred from Texas A&M to Houston. After a good first season, Weigman has excelled in 2026.
This season, Weigman is the 4th best QB among FBS starters in my adjusted passing success rate. This is a remarkable jump, as Weigman was outside the top 30 last season.
My member model has moved Houston from 29th this preseason to 20th, mostly based on the excellent performance of the offense. My best prediction has Houston by 6.7 points at home over Oklahoma State, and I sent members Houston -4.5 earlier this week (kick off at 7:30pm Eastern).
Members of The Power Rank get access to NFL interception props on Saturday morning at 11am Eastern.
NFL player prop – After getting off to a rough 2-3 start, the Los Angeles Rams get Arizona at home as a 12.5 point favorite. NFL analyst Clevta notes that this lopsided has consequences for RB Blake Corum.
Corum started getting more carries in the middle of last season, and he has had a median of 5 carries and 58 rushing yards in 7 games in which the Rams won by double digits. In addition, Arizona’s rush defense ranks 22nd in yards before contact and 23th in explosive run rate allowed.
There is value in Blake Corum over 42.5 rushing yards, -114 available at FanDuel (better number at theScore). Check out the excellent analysis Clevta gives to subscribers every week.
NBA futures bet – Professional bettor Michael Fiddle came on The Football Analytics Show to share his insights into the NFL and NBA. He talked about the new tanking rules as a potential edge in the NBA futures market.
This season, the bottom three teams in the NBA get fewer ping pong balls in the lottery for the top pick. This should encourage teams to win games, and win totals for the best teams should be lower as bottom teams try harder.
As these bottom teams try harder, Michael thinks it makes them less inclined to play hard against Oklahoma City, the best team in the league. Save your energy and best players for other games on a road trip. Michael sees value in Oklahoma City over 61.5.
Michael was very generous with other NBA win totals (listen at 38:00) in an excellent episode of The Football Analytics Show.
The value of NBA preseason data – It might seem crazy to use preseason data to make regular season forecasts. However, Kostya Medvedovsky, the creator of the DARKO NBA player projection system, has argued about the utility of preseason data in multiple sports.
In the NBA, Kostya looks at individual player performance versus expectation in preseason games. Games in which starters play more get more weight, and the preseason data counts more for weaker teams and less for contenders. Kostya’s model uses both market win totals and preseason data to make regular season projections, and this model is 9.8% better than market win totals alone.
For the upcoming 2026-27 season, the preseason data through October 12 gives Brooklyn a huge boost, expecting 4.4 more wins than the market (24.5 wins). For the contenders, the defending champion New York Knicks are projected to win 4.4 games less (52.5).
NFL humor – Last week, Washington screwed up the last seconds of their game, resulting in a tie with the New York Giants. This minute video by Bobby Finn captures the absurdity and hilarity of it all. Catch it on X or Instagram.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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Hi Ed , what is our/ your Record after this weekend