THE POWER RANK

5-Nugget Saturday, December 2, 2023

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Looking for smart betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor.

NFL tackles and assists prop – Ryan Noonan of 4for4 Football has hit on 62.5% of his tackle props the past two seasons. This week, he likes Los Angeles Rams S Jordan Fuller against Cleveland for a number of reasons.

First, Cleveland averages the most offensive plays per game this season. This creates an average of 70.2 tackles and assists (TAs) per game, 14% more than the league average. Cleveland’s defense is the driving force here, limiting teams to a league-low 4.4 plays per drive.

Second, Fuller gets another boost here due to the Rams home scorekeeper. Rams games have averaged a high assist rate for three straight seasons, with an assist per opportunity rate 6% higher than the NFL average. The Rams get an even higher assist rate compared to their opponents for these home games.

Even though Joe Flacco at QB for the Browns projects for fewer plays, Ryan’s model projects 6.9 TAs for Fuller. There is value on Jordan Fuller over 5.5 tackles and assists, +110 at DraftKings.

Follow Ryan Noonan on X and catch him on the Move the Line podcast for all of his insights.

San Francisco at Philadelphia, NFL Week 13 – On an episode of The Football Analytics Show, NFL data scientist Ben Brown likes the Eagles at home in this marquee game on Sunday.

Ben has Philadelphia as better than San Francisco by his metrics. In addition, he notes that Philadelphia leads the NFL in expected points added when behind this season.

For San Francisco, turnovers are potentially an issue, as QB Brock Purdy has made an interception worthy throw on 3.4% of his pass attempts (2.4% NFL average interception rate). Ben likes Philadelphia +3 at home versus San Francisco, and the member numbers at The Power Rank agree (Eagles by 0.7 points).

College football playoff semi-final spreads – Chris Andrews, sports book director at the South Point in Las Vegas, has a list of point spreads for potential games. Highlights include:

  • Michigan -7 vs Washington. This spread will be less after Washington’s strong performance in a win over Oregon on Friday night.
  • Georgia -15 vs Florida State. Combined with my member numbers, this suggests the adjustment for the absence of Florida State QB Jordan Travis is about 5 points.

Chris’s numbers also imply Georgia -3 vs Michigan. Follow Chris on X for all of his bookmaking insights.

No SEC teams in the college football playoff? – For this to happen, Alabama must beat Georgia. Otherwise, Georgia makes it as an unbeaten SEC champion.

To have any chance to lock out both Georgia and Alabama, these three teams must also win (win probability is from the FanDuel moneyline on Friday afternoon):

  • Michigan, 94%.
  • Florida State, 52%.
  • Texas, 85%.

There is a 15% chance that these three teams and Alabama (36% probability) win.

Michigan and Florida State would automatically join Washington in the playoff. Then, the committee will have a long conversation about whether Texas, Alabama or possibly Georgia gets the last spot.

It is impossible to predict the behavior of a room full of people who scream bloody murder at the word algorithm. Let’s assume a coin flip between Texas and Alabama, which implies a 7.5% chance the SEC gets left out.

Yesterday, FanDuel also had two prices for this set of playoff teams: Michigan, Pac-12 champion, Florida State, Texas. The sum of the break even probabilities was 5.4%.

NSFW football humor – We take a break from our regular programming of Annie Agar and SEC Shorts to bring you this child from Philadelphia.

If you think this is an AI generated deep fake, then you haven’t been to a game in Philly.

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These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

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  • Entertaining

Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet and a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.

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Oregon vs Washington, Pac-12 Championship Game 2023

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These are two teams headed in opposite directions since their regular season meeting, a game in which Washington won by 3.

Washington remains undefeated, but it has been a struggle. They beat Washington State by 3 last week as a 15 point favorite. This win made their record 7-0 record in one score games this season, an unsustainable rate.

Washington’s offense is still elite with QB Michael Penix and NFL caliber receivers like Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan. The defense has actually moved up to 37th in my adjusted success rate.

However, Oregon has simply dominated teams since the loss to Washington, both on the scoreboard and by success rate. Let’s look at two examples:

  • Oregon clobbered Utah 35-6, and they had a significant advantage in success rate (60.3% to 31.8% for Utah). Utah later gave Washington all they could handle in a 35-28 game.
  • Oregon dominated rival Oregon State by a 31-7 score last week. The prior week, Oregon State took Washington to the wire in a 2 point loss. Oregon State had a 41.1% success rate compared to 34.0% for Washington.

In addition, Oregon QB Bo Nix is the favorite to win the Heisman (-190 at DraftKings). A signature performance in the Pac-12 championship game would seal the win.

In my aggressive model that tends to move on recent performance, Oregon is first in the nation, ahead of Georgia, Ohio State and Michigan. This model has Oregon by 12.5 points over Washington at neutral site.

I know this seems crazy after Washington closed -3 at home against Oregon. However, the Ducks have dominated.

There is no longer Oregon -9 like I recommended to members of The Power Rank on Sunday night when the member numbers were posted. But I would still take Oregon -9.5.

Here is a sample of predictions available to members of The Power Rank.

CFB. Florida State will beat Louisville by 3.3 points at a neutral site. This prediction doesn’t account for the absence of Florida State QB Jordan Travis. Backup Tate Rodemaker had a 32.0% passing success rate against Florida (39.7% college football average). A proper adjustment probably puts this close to a pick.

NFL. Houston will beat Denver by 1.3 points at home. In the preseason, my numbers would have made Denver -4 on the road. Houston has exceeded expectations though, and data from the current season would make Houston -7 at home. Both my prediction and the market (Houston -3.5) split the difference.

NFL. Kansas City will beat Green Bay by 6.3 points on the road. Green Bay QB Jordan Love has been great in 3 of the past 4 games, but against lesser defenses (rank by my adjusted passing success rate).

  • Los Angeles Rams, 15th.
  • Los Angeles Chargers, 26th.
  • Detroit, 31st.

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This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter at noon Eastern on Thursday, November 30, 2023. The market has moved since then.

This newsletter is a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

Every week, I send out 5-Nugget Saturday, my curated list of sports betting tips, analytics and humor. If you’re looking for action on a weekend, this is the service for you.

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5-Nugget Saturday, November 25, 2023

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Looking for smart sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor.

Washington State at Washington – Despite a 5-6 record, the experts on the Cover 3 podcast like the chances for Washington State to cover and possibly pull off the upset. The panel noted the quality in Washington State QB Cam Ward, and Washington still has their issues on defense.

College football betting expert Bud Elliott likes what he saw from Washington State against Colorado last week despite the lack of competition. In addition, the Cougars have key players coming back from injury.

Bud said he would bet Washington State +14.5 or better. My member numbers at The Power Rank agree, as I have Washington by 13.0 points at home. As of Saturday morning, FanDuel has Washington State +16.5 for the 4pm Eastern kick off.

NFL passing prop – On the Move the Line NFL podcast, Connor Allen does not like the match up for Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert against Baltimore’s defense.

Herbert will play without many of his key weapons such as WR Joshua Palmer. In addition, Baltimore’s defense has allowed only one QB to throw for more than 252 passing yards this season. Detroit’s Jared Goff needed 53 pass attempts but still only had 284 yards.

Connor likes Justin Herbert under 252.5 passing yards, a number available at DraftKings as of Saturday morning.

Rest advantage in the NFL – Tampa Bay played last week at San Francisco. The Bucs travel to play Indianapolis, a team that had a bye last week after a win over New England in Germany.

To calculate rest advantage, I use data since the start of the 2015. This gives me a sample of 260 games with a team coming off a bye week against a team that played the previous week.

This calculation gives a rest edge of 0.8 points to Indianapolis against Tampa Bay. However, the error is only 0.6 points, so there is no statistical certainty that bye advantage exists at all.

Along with the 2.1 points for home advantage against a non division opponent, my numbers like Indianapolis by 2.6 points at home. To learn how my schedule adjustments play a role in these home and rest calculations, check out a recent episode of The Football Analytics Show podcast.

Sports betting Q&A – For Thanksgiving, professional bettor and founder of Bet Bash Spanky answered questions for over two hours. One person asked what he would do if sports books didn’t limit him.

Spanky said he would bet props. This would give him the highest return on investment. Check out all of his answers on the most recent episode of the Be Better Bettors podcast.

College football humor – Are you an Auburn fan despite the home loss to New Mexico State? Try Extra Strength AuburnFansatol, a product of SEC Shorts. Side effects include constantly talking about the early 1980s.

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These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet and a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.

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5-Nugget Saturday, November 18, 2023

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Looking for smart betting action this weekend? Your curated list of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Unabated podcast – Same game parlays seem like the domain of amateurs. You laugh at your friend that bets the SGP that shows up first on FanDuel. However, on the Unabated Podcast, professional sports bettor Rufus Peabody talked about the edges in SGPs despite the high hold.

The sports books price a SGP based on the correlation between quantities such as QB pass yards and WR receiving yards. Rufus thinks there is value in finding exceptions to these general correlations, and he plans to build software that allows people to explore this value in SGPs.

The Unabated Podcast with Captain Jack and Tom Viola is an excellent sports betting resource. In addition, they were also kind enough to have me on this week to discuss my mathematical schedule adjustments and interception props.

NFL interception prop – Even with the power of using bad ball rate to predict interceptions, small sample size is an issue. While I trust the 1702 pass attempts of Josh Allen since the start of the 2021 season, Sam Howell has 417 attempts over his two NFL seasons.

Howell has a bad ball rate of 12.5%, worse than the NFL average of 11.6% since the start of the 2021 season. While I might expect regression to the mean for a more promising QB, Howell’s rate is most likely accurate for a player who might not start past this season.

Despite being a large favorite against the New York Giants and QB Tommy DeVito, the market has a large value of 35.5 pass attempts for Howell. My model gives a 58.5% chance of an interception, and there is value in Howell over 0.5 interceptions (-115 at DraftKings).

Los Angeles Chargers at Green Bay, NFL Week 11 – On the Props & Hops podcast, NFL originator SharpClarke notes the Chargers offense continues to underwhelm without key contributors. WR Mike Williams is hurt again, and center Corey Linsley has not played since week 3.

From watching game film, SharpClarke sees slow but steady improvement in the Packers offense, with a strong offensive line and young WRs finding their stride with QB Jordan Love. The Packers did well against Pittsburgh last week, and they face a worse defense against the Chargers.

SharpClarke’s numbers make the spread Chargers -1.5, which agrees with The Power Rank member prediction of 1.4 points. There is value in Packers +3.

College basketball predictions – These are predictions are based on my model that adjusts teams according to early season data.

  • Connecticut will beat Indiana by 10.6 points, neutral site (Sunday). Connecticut brings back Donovan Clingan and Alex Karaban to defend their national title from April, 2023. While they have yet to face decent competition in three games, Indiana should give them a test in New York City.
  • Houston will beat Dayton by 13.0 points, neutral site (Sunday). Houston lost Marcus Sasser and Jarace Walker to the 1st round of the NBA draft, but Kelvin Sampson probably still has a top 5 team. Houston beat a solid Utah team by 10 points on Friday.
  • Florida Atlantic will beat Bryant by 21.2 points at home. Florida Atlantic brings back five contributors from a team that came within a point of the national championship game in April.

Members of The Power Rank get access to these predictions the day before the games, which allows you to take advantage of the soft opening market.

NFL humor – Deshaun Watson is out for the season, and Annie Agar suggests that just maybe, the Browns should have had a contingency plan given that he missed multiple games this year.

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These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet and a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.

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Philadelphia at Kansas City, NFL Week 11

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While these teams played in the Super Bowl last season, a lot has changed since that game.

Kansas City is known for their efficient pass offense. However, coach Andy Reid and QB Patrick Mahomes haven’t hit their lofty standards this season, as they rank 9th in my adjusted passing success rate.

Expect this to get better, as they still have the NFL’s best TE in Travis Kelce. In addition, rookie WR Rashee Rice as impressed so far with 2.28 yards per route run, much better than the NFL average of 1.5 for WRs.

Kansas City looks great based on this year’s numbers because of the defense. The pass defense ranks 2nd in my adjusted passing success rate.

However, regression is looming for this unit. Kansas City has a long track record of being league average on defense, and their personnel this season doesn’t suggest otherwise. In addition, the Chiefs are 18th in PFF coverage grade.

The offense will improve while the defense regresses, and this means that Kansas City’s rank of 3rd based on data from the current season should hold steady.

Philadelphia has an NFL best 8-1 record. Their lone loss came in a winnable game vs the Jets, as Jalen Hurts lost his mind with 3 interceptions. The Eagles have an unsustainable 5-1 record in one score games, with wins over Dallas and Washington twice.

The defense has been worse than last season, as Philadelphia ranks 16th in my adjusted passing success rate. CB Darius Slay and James Bradberry both have worse PFF coverage grades than last season. In addition, CB Josh Jobe has struggled to fill in for an injured Avonte Maddox.

After a rough start to the season in throwing the ball, Jalen Hurts has been great the past two weeks (NFL averages are 42.3% success rate, 6.05 yards per pass attempt, and defensive rank is according to my adjusted passing success rate):

  • 50.0% success rate, 7.0 yards per pass attempt against Dallas (7th).
  • 50.0% success rate, 7.9 yards per pass attempt against Washington (6th).

Overall, Philadelphia ranks 10th in my adjusted passing success rate. Despite these recent performances, I don’t trust Hurts as a passer and view these games as outliers.

My member numbers have Kansas City by 4.8 points over Philadelphia at home. Based on only data from this season, I’d make Kansas City -5 over Philadelphia on a neutral site.

In addition, Jalen Hurts is listed as questionable, as he played through the Dallas game after taking a hit to his left knee. There is value in Kansas City -2.5, and I fully expect the market to move to -3 or more.

Here are 3 predictions usually reserved for paying members of The Power Rank.

CFB. Oregon State will beat Washington by 2.3 points at home. On Sunday, FanDuel had Washington -2.5 on the road. Now, most books have Oregon State -2.5, as sharp bettors recognize almost a month of mediocre play from the 10-0 Huskies.

CFB. Georgia will beat Tennessee by 8.7 points on the road. All world TE Brock Bowers returned for Georgia last week, and the Bulldogs have looked impressive since that close call at Auburn. Georgia is back on top of my member college football rankings, and I do not recommend taking Tennessee +10 because of this prediction.

NFL. Cleveland will beat Pittsburgh by 1.2 points at home. This prediction comes from my market model that takes closing spreads and adjusts for opponents. This model says that Cleveland is 3.5 points worse than NFL average with PJ Walker at QB. For this division game, I use a home advantage of 1.3 points, and I explain how I calculate this and rest advantage in the most recent episode of The Football Analytics Show.

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter at noon Eastern on Thursday, November 16, 2023. This newsletter is a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

Every week, I send out 5-Nugget Saturday, my curated list of sports betting tips, analytics and humor. If you’re looking for action on a weekend, this is the service for you.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”