THE POWER RANK

Iowa at Wisconsin, College Football Week 9, 2021

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Iowa started the season a red hot 6-0. However, the underlying metrics tell a different story for the Hawkeyes.

Iowa had a worse success rate than Iowa State, Kent State and Maryland in wins. They beat Iowa State by 10 points with the help of a +4 turnover margin. Despite this turnover margin, Iowa State had more yards and a higher yards per play. Similarly, the 37 point margin of victory over Maryland was in large part due to a +7 turnover margin.

Iowa almost had a worse success rate than Colorado State and Penn State. In the latter game, Penn State QB Sean Clifford got injured in the first half and never returned. The back up QB had 34 passing yards, 23 if you subtract yards lost on sacks.

Maybe Penn State needs to trade for Joe Flacco as insurance at QB like the Jets did this week.

Iowa has been overrated all season, and the problem is the offense. They rank 109th in my adjusted success rate, a bottom 25 FBS unit. While QB Spencer Petras had a strong second half against Penn State in leading a comeback win, he has been poor overall this season.

Wisconsin has had a 4-3 season, but my numbers still like this team. They had a chance to beat Penn State in the opener. They got throttled by Notre Dame because of four interceptions, but they had more yards in that game.

QB Graham Mertz has struggled this season, but Wisconsin still has a better offense than Iowa. The Badgers rank 54th in my adjusted success rate.

The rush attack has improved the past three games, and now the Badgers rank 34th in my adjusted rushing success rate. The passing game is not as good at 84th in my numbers.

My model likes Wisconsin by 6.3 points. As much as Wisconsin has struggled, the adjusted metrics from this season only (points, success rate, yards per play) predict a 7.6 point Wisconsin win.

There are a few reasons to stay away from this game. First, you might not believe in Mertz. I understand.

Second, this game does feature two excellent defenses (Wisconsin 2nd, Iowa 8th by my adjusted success rate). My model predicts a score of Wisconsin 19.8 to Iowa 13.5. A low scoring game means it’s harder for Wisconsin to cover a larger point spread like 4 or 5.

Iowa got stomped by Purdue in their last game, and I thought the market might adjust. However, the numbers imply value in Wisconsin -3.

Football betting with a PhD edge

This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter at 4pm Eastern on Tuesday, October 26. This newsletter is a free service that strives to be:

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7-Nugget Saturday, October 23, 2021

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Your weekly digest of sports betting tips and news, delivered at 10am Eastern every Saturday.

Bud Elliott and closing line value – Headlines proclaim the winning record of someone’s bets. However, closing line value is a better metric with which to evaluate bets, especially with a small sample size from the current season.

Bud Elliott of 247Sports posts his college football bets for the next week every Sunday. For his week 7 predictions for sides and totals (last weekend’s games on October 16), the market moved in his favor on 30 of 36 bets. Only 6 games stayed at the same value or moved the opposite way.

Bud got closing line value on 83.3% of his bets, an excellent rate. While there is no more value in his week 8 bets, get notified of his Sunday column by following Bud on Twitter.

Injuries – Unless otherwise noted, these injuries were checked with ESPN NFL injuries and Don Best college football.

  • Tampa Bay will be without four of its high-profile players against Chicago: TE Rob Gronkowski, WR Antonio Brown, LB Lavonte David and CB Richard Sherman.
  • San Francisco QB Jimmy Garappolo will probably play as he recovers from a calf injury. The same cannot be said for QB Trey Lance, who is dealing with a knee injury.
  • Kansas City WR Tyreek Hill returned to practice Friday and should be available.
  • Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr. has continued to deal with a shoulder issue and didn’t play last week. It is uncertain whether he will play against Ohio State.
  • Georgia QB J.T. Daniels is on the mend and practiced this week, per his head coach Kirby Smart. Stetson Bennett may still be starting though. Georgia is off this week and plays Florida next week.
  • Dallas QB Dak Prescott has a strained calf, but the Cowboys are on a bye this week.

Dr. Bob NFL Model – The sports betting industry demands constant evolution. Otherwise, the market leaves you behind.

For over 30 years, Bob Stoll has been using analytics for football betting. On The Football Analytics Show podcast, he talks about how he recently hired a talented analyst to develop an NFL model based on air yards, QB pressures and play calling among other factors.

He also talked about his release on Saints at Seahawks; time stamps for all episodes of this podcast are available at The Power Rank.

For Prop’s Sake – The prop market can be a solid way to add to your bankroll if you believe a total will go over or under. Ben Brown at PFF put together these charts showing which props to target if a total goes over or under. This analysis suggests an edge on passing touchdowns and passing yards.

Two Roads Converge – On FanDuel Sportsbook, both the Titans and Chargers are +2200 to win the Super Bowl. However, one is coming off of an upset win against one of the best teams in football while the other suffered a lopsided defeat. Despite the same odds, these two teams have traveled different paths to this point.

The BetQL Daily crew says the dip is better than the bump, so the Chargers deserve more consideration at this point. BETLQL Daily streams on the Audacy app & Twitch 9am to 12pm ET Monday through Friday. Edward Egros appears on the the show every week.

An Unusual Request – Normally, NFL teams get a bye week after playing a game in London. However, Miami requested that they play after their trip across the pond so that they could have their bye later in the season.

A team has played the week after a game in London on four other occasions. Those teams went 2-2. While this is a small sample size, Miami is a 2.5-point underdog against Atlanta. The Power Rank sees value on Miami side so it’s possible the market is over adjusting for jet lag.

Math humor – From @deelomas on Twitter:

Picked up a hitch-hiker. Seemed like a nice guy. After a few miles he asked me if I wasn’t afraid he might be a serial killer? I told him that the odds of two serial killers being in the same car at the same time were extremely low…

Don’t think about conditional probability. Just laugh.

Data driven betting information

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5 insights from college football success rate

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For years, I used yards per play as my primary metric for college football. This metric captures the efficiency of how an offense moves the ball, and how a defense prevents this movement.

Then, Bill Connelly published an article that changed how I view football metrics.

To understand Connelly’s results, think about breaking down yards per play into two components. First, an offense needs to have some basic success on a play based on down and distance. For an offense, a play is a success if it gets the following fraction of the necessary yards for the next first down:

  • 50% on 1st down
  • 70% on 2nd down
  • 100% on 3rd, 4th down

Success on a play brings a certain efficiency in terms of yards per play. However, an offense can help itself with explosiveness on successful plays. To make things easy, think of this explosiveness in terms of yards per play on successful plays.

Connelly showed that success rate is predictive. On offense and defense, success rate during an early part of the season has a strong correlation with success rate later in the season.

In contrast, Connelly found that explosiveness had zero correlation from early to late season. There is a huge random element in big plays. I’ve found the same in the NFL: yards per pass attempt on successful plays has little predictive power within the same season.

While I still track yards per play in college football, I rely on success rate (with opponent adjustments based on my PhD research) to evaluate offense and defense. Here are some surprising units after 7 weeks of the 2021 season.

Michigan State pass offense – The Spartans had over 12 yards per pass attempt against Rutgers. However, they benefitted from three touchdown receptions of over 60 yards to Jalen Nailor. The Spartans had a 40.7% pass success rate for the game compared to the 39.7% college football average.

Overall, Michigan State’s pass offense ranks 89th in my adjusted success rate, a significant departure from their 18th in adjusted yards per pass attempt.

Alabama defense – The Crimson Tide couldn’t hold Texas A&M’s back up QB from driving for a game winning field goal. And while they dominated Mississippi State on the scoreboard, they allowed a 40.5% success rate compared to the 40.8% college football average.

Doubting a Nick Saban defense might be dumber than deep frying a frozen turkey. However, Alabama’s defense ranks 29th in my adjusted success rate.

Ohio State defense – Through the first three games of the season, the Buckeye defense looked horrible. The seat under DC Terry Coombs grew warmer with every game.

However, Ohio State’s defense has surged the last three games, and they rank 24th in my adjusted success rate for the season. They are better against the rush (13th) than pass (59th).

Clemson offense – A perennial power like Clemson usually just reloads on offense. However, the Tigers offense ranks 71st in my adjusted success rate and even worse by yards per play (109th).

The obvious culprit is QB DJ Uiagalelei, tasked with the impossible chore of replacing Trevor Lawrence. However, Bob Stoll suggested on my podcast that the skill players might have a bigger role in this decline.

Western Kentucky offense – The Hilltoppers came into the season with many question marks, as they brought in transfer QB Bailey Zappe from FCS Houston Baptist. However, they have been essentially unstoppable and rank 1st in my adjusted success rate. They scored 31 points against Indiana and Michigan State.

Regression looms for this Conference USA offense. But with an awful defense ranked 125th in my adjusted success rate, Western Kentucky looks like an over team.

Football betting with a PhD edge

This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter, a free service that strives to be:

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The predictions and analytics are based on my PhD research from Stanford, and the content covers college football and the NFL.

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Atlanta at Miami, NFL Week 7, 2021

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Miami had a 4th and 1 near midfield. Tied at 20 with Jacksonville, they chose the aggressive and analytically sound choice of going for it with less than two minutes remaining.

Miami didn’t convert, and Jacksonville took over to kick a game winning field goal. Now, Miami is an underdog to Atlanta in week 7.

Miami has been a disappointment in 2021. During the preseason, they projected as an average NFL team by my numbers and had potential upside if second year QB Tua Tagovailoa could make a jump. However, Tagovailoa got hurt against Buffalo week 2, and under Jacoby Brissett the offense looked worse than the hair cut of Raiders owner Mark Davis.

Tagovailoa came back last week against Jacksonville, and he played reasonably well without his two best receivers (WRs Will Fuller and DeVante Parker). In this game, Miami had a 46.8% pass success rate (45.8% NFL average).

While the offense might get back on track, the defense hasn’t held up their end of the bargain. They rank 19th in my passing success rate adjusted for opponent, and both starting CBs Xavien Howard and Byron Jones are banged up and didn’t play against Jacksonville.

However, they play an Atlanta team that looks stuck in NFL purgatory: not bad enough for the top pick in the 2022 draft, but with a ceiling of NFL average.

QB Matt Ryan is still around, but the pass offense ranks 20th in my adjusted success rate. The defense can’t break out of the bottom five in the NFL.

The one good thing for Atlanta: health. They have lost CB Isaiah Oliver for the season but otherwise aren’t saddled by the lengthy injury lists that plague other teams.

Atlanta is a 2.5 point road favorite at Miami. I could only make the Falcons a road favorite this large against Houston. Miami has struggled in 2021, but they are not Houston.

My numbers like Miami by 4.1 points. Even with the mediocrity of Jacoby Brissett, the adjusted metrics from only this season like Miami by 2.7 points. I like the Dolphins +2.5 and to win outright at home against Atlanta.

Football betting with a PhD edge

This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter at 5pm Eastern on Tuesday, October 19. This newsletter is a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

The predictions are based on my PhD research from Stanford, and the content covers college football and the NFL.

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7-Nugget Saturday, October 16, 2021

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Your weekly digest of sports betting news and tips, every Saturday morning at 10am Eastern.

Silver and Black Eye – A less important consequence of Jon Gruden’s resignation is how Las Vegas will perform this weekend. On Saturday morning, the Raiders are 4-point underdogs to the Broncos. While the Power Rank sees value backing the Raiders strictly by the data (Denver by 3.3 points), research has been conducted concerning how we, as humans, react to setbacks and tragedy.

The book This is Your Brain on Sports by Jon Wertheim and Sam Sommers chronicles several examples of how athletes experienced massive success during their first game after adversity. Psychologically, we are more resilient than we give ourselves credit for.

Grief and loss also are not linear; there are good days and bad days. There are great life lessons in this book, but pertaining to this game, it may be foolish to assume a jarring coaching change will only be debilitating.

The Weather for Cardinals at Browns – Fabian Sommer looked at how high winds in Cleveland on Sunday could impact the undefeated Cardinals at Browns. He liked Cleveland -3 when his article was posted on Thursday.

The strong wind puts more emphasis on the run game, and the Cardinals have some key injuries on offense (C Rodney Hudson, TE Maxx Williams) that will hurt them in the trenches. On defense, they have struggled against the run, which projects as a poor match up against Cleveland’s run offense.

Sommer’s analysis is almost the polar opposite of the team level analysis at The Power Rank. However, both land on the same side of this spread, as The Power Rank favors Cleveland by 4.3 points. The markets have moved to Cleveland -3.5 as of Saturday morning.

While there might no longer be value in this game, you can catch Sommer’s insights on the Matchbook podcast every Wednesday.

Injuries – Unless otherwise noted, this injury information was checked against ESPN’s injuries page.

  • Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa will start against Jacksonville in London.
  • Arizona QB Kyler Murray has an issue with his throwing shoulder, as he got attention on the sidelines during last week’s game against San Francisco. The undefeated Cardinals travel to Cleveland, and Arizona coach Kliff Kingsbury will miss the game due to a positive COVID-19 test.
  • NY Giants QB Daniel Jones has passed the concussion protocol and will play Sunday.
  • WFT QB Ryan Fitzpatrick could come back as soon as Week 7 (next weekend).
  • Seattle QB Russell Wilson is on IR and will not return until Week 10 at the earliest. Geno Smith will start Sunday night at the Steelers.
  • Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr. left the last game with a separated shoulder. His status is undetermined.
  • Miami QB D’Eriq King will not play for the Hurricanes again this season after shoulder surgery.

Kelly Criterion – The Power Rank offers PhD backed analysis to professional and college football. What is trickier to do is suggest how much to bet on any one game (beyond simply looking at the difference between the predicted number and the markets).

One suggestion is the Kelly criterion. The theory is not to bet the same amount on every game, that some deserve a greater fraction of your bankroll than others. On the Circles Off podcast, they had a great conversation on this criterion, both in terms of when it is appropriate and when there may be shortcomings.

Dawg Defense – As FiveThirtyEight detailed, Georgia may boast the greatest defense college football has ever seen, at least based upon EPA/Play allowed so far. However, as many in the analytics community have detailed, who you face may matter more to diagnosing a defense than inherent talent.

By The Power Rank’s adjusted success rate, Georgia has yet to face an offense to crack the top 30. This week, they face a Kentucky offense that ranks 15th. Kentucky also ranks in the top 40 by EPA/Play on offense.

Teaching AP Calculus in Compton – George Chahrouri of PFF joined Ed Feng on The Football Analytics Show podcast to talk NFL analytics and betting. However, George first described getting 12 students to pass the AP Calculus test when he taught in Compton.

George also gave his thoughts on Jon Gruden as well as Chargers at Ravens, Cardinals at Browns, and Bengals at Lions. As always, you can find time stamps for each podcast episode at The Power Rank.

Alabama Needs an Ambulance – One week after getting cocky in the principal’s office, Alabama’s defense allows a 46.6% success rate to Texas A&M and their backup QB (41.0% college football average).

Alabama left College Station bruised and battered, as parodied by SEC Shorts.

Data driven betting information

This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet.

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