Curt Cignetti took over Indiana in 2024 and had a remarkable season, going 11-1 before a playoff loss at Notre Dame. Usually, when a first year coach takes an awful program to success, the quants expect regression to the program mean.

However, there were signs that Indiana would be great again in 2025. Cignetti still had players from the previous year like WR Elijiah Sarratt and CB D’Angelo Ponds who projected as NFL draft picks. In addition, NFL scouts suggested that transfer QB Fernando Mendoza from California could go as high as the first round.

Last season, Indiana had a historic 16-0 season that ended with a national championship. So much for regression.

Heading into 2026, Indiana seems primed for another elite season. It starts with transfer QB Josh Hoover who had better numbers at TCU than Mendoza at Cal.

Passing success rate is my most trusted QB statistic, as it considers the context of every play. A three yard completion is a success on 4th and 1 but not on 1st and 10.

To compare Hoover and Mendoza, I’ll make adjustments for opposing defenses based on my algorithms at The Power Rank. These calculations account for situations like how Mendoza got to play the ACC’s worst pass defense in 2024 (Wake Forest) but Hoover didn’t play the worst Big 12 defense in 2025 (Oklahoma State).

At Cal, Mendoza was predicted to throw for a passing success rate of 44.8% in 2024, a solid mark compared to the college football average of 40.6%. For Hoover at TCU:

• 2025: 46.0%
• 2024: 47.1%

Hoover might have had worse metrics in 2025, but he lost WR Jack Bech and Savion Williams from the 2024 TCU team to the NFL.

It is nonsense to predict Hoover will do better than Mendoza because of these numbers. Hoover most likely falls short of the Heisman and getting picked first in the NFL draft. However, he does provide as solid a transfer QB as Indiana could have picked up.

There are many other areas of the roster full of excellent players. Here, let’s focus on the defensive line.

The depth chart suggests that two Kansas State transfers, Chiddi Obiazor and Tobi Osunsanmi, will start for Indiana in 2026. According to Jordan Reid of ESPN, Osunsanmi is getting midround grades while Obiazor is a late round prospect.

But then three others transfers on the defensive line also project as late round picks: edge Josh Burham (Notre Dame), and tackles Tyrique Tucker (James Madison) and Joe Hjelle (Tulsa). Indiana also needs to find playing time for DT Stephen Daley, another late round prospect who was granted a 5th year of eligibility.

My market model takes win totals and backs out a rating and rank for every team based on its schedule. Indiana ranks 3rd, higher than their 6th in the preseason AP poll.

It would be disappointing if Indiana didn’t challenge Ohio State and Oregon not only for a Big Ten but a national title.

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend?

5-Nugget Saturday is my curated list of tips and analytics. The bets come from not only myself but also other trusted sources in the industry.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”

 

 

 

You are pumped about the college football season, and nothing adds to that excitement like watching a team fail its expectations.

I’ve identified three overrated college football teams in the preseason AP poll almost every season since 2015. By my tracking, these predictions have gone 21-6 with 3 pushes (no predictions in 2020 because of COVID).

You might think the preseason AP poll isn’t a high standard to attack, as some pundits think it’s a meaningless relic only around to generate headlines. However, preseason polls are powerful predictors of team strength due to the wisdom of crowds.

From 2005 through 2017, the higher ranked team in the preseason AP poll won 59.9% of bowl games. Most of these games were before the bowl opt out era, which started in the 2016 season with Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette.

In the ten seasons of the four team college football playoff, 24 of 50 teams ranked in the top 5 of the preseason AP poll made the playoff field. The preseason AP poll is a worthy standard for college football teams.

Let’s get into my 3 overrated college football teams for 2026.

Georgia, 3rd

Kirby Smart has one of the most distinguished track records in college football. Since taking the job at Georgia in 2016, he has four SEC championships and two national championships in 2021 and 2022.

But despite SEC championships the past two seasons, Georgia hasn’t quite been the same program since their last national championship. Let’s look at two factors that cap the potential of Georgia in 2026.

The main culprit is the pass offense. QB Gunner Stockton returns in his second year as the starter, and his numbers last season were very good. For example, let’s look at yards per pass attempt. At The Power Rank, I’ll take this efficiency metric and make adjustments for opposing defenses with my algorithms. Last season, Georgia’s pass offense ranked 22nd in the nation.

However, Stockton lost his top three wide receivers from last season. Both Zachariah Branch and Colbie Young were drafted in the top four rounds of the NFL draft.

To replace this talent, Georgia will rely on London Humphreys and Sacovie White-Helton, two players who have not produced for this program the past two seasons. They also brought in Isiah Canon as a transfer from Georgia Tech, but he was only the third most targeted player on that team and had a paltry 1.70 yards per route run.

According to the NFL prospects tabulated by ESPN’s Jordan Reid, Humphreys might be a late round target in the next NFL draft. In addition, TE Lawson Luckie has 3rd, 4th round grades despite only 152 receiving yards in 2025. The talent profile looks skimpy at receiver for Georgia in 2026, and this caps the team’s ceiling.

In addition, it’s notable how Georgia’s defense has evolved over the past five seasons. Let’s look at how this defense has performed by my success rate (SR) adjusted for opposing offense and defensive players drafted by the NFL.

• 2021: 1st SR, 8 players drafted (5 in the 1st round).
• 2022: 2nd SR, 6 players drafted, (2 in the 1st round).
• 2023: 22nd SR, 4 players drafted.
• 2024: 9th SR, 7 players drafted, (3 in the 1st round).
• 2025: 15th SR, 3 players drafted.

The defense has dropped off since the two national championships in 2021 and 2022. In addition, Georgia had their fewest defensive players drafted last season.

The current defense has the potential to jump back in the top 10. Coordinator Glenn Schumann has been in charge since 2022, and players like CB Ellis Robinson IV and S KJ Bolden project as 1st round NFL picks in 2027.

Georgia has a high floor because of an excellent defensive tradition but a low ceiling due to the pass offense. While they should be favored to win the SEC, Georgia lacks the offensive firepower of other contenders like Ohio State, Notre Dame, Oregon and Indiana.

My market model takes win totals and backs out a rating for all FBS teams, and this model ranks Georgia 6th in the nation. Georgia is overrated at 3rd in the preseason AP poll.

Texas A&M, 8th

In 2025, Texas A&M bum rushed out of the gate in Mike Elko’s second season. The Aggies started the season 11-0 and looked excellent in my underlying metrics.

Texas A&M stumbled towards the end of the season, as a loss to Texas bumped them from the SEC championship game. Then they lost a home playoff game to Miami, a team that would play in the national championship game.

Texas A&M seems poised for success again with the return QB Marcel Reed, who had excellent numbers last season. After my opponent adjustments, Reed was predicted to have a passing success rate of 49.2% last season, top ten in the nation and much better than the FBS average of 40.7%.

Reed struggled with turnovers in their two losses as he threw four interceptions against Texas and Miami. However, interceptions are not a good predictor of future interceptions.

Bad ball rate, a metric that considers how often a QB throws the football into a dangerous situation, is a better predictor. I’ve used bad ball rate to win at NFL interception props the past three seasons for members of The Power Rank. Reed had a 10.3% bad ball rate last season, much better than the 13.2% college football average.

This season, Texas A&M has the typical roster turnover of most college football teams, especially on the offensive and defensive line. However, Elko found transfers at these positions who have played high level college football. For example, LT Wilkin Formby started at Alabama while DT CJ Mims played 356 snaps at North Carolina last season.

Given their overall performance last season, a rank of 8th in the preseason AP poll for Texas A&M might seem reasonable. But my market model, which harnesses the wisdom of sharp bettors, thinks this is too high. This preseason market model has Texas A&M at 12th.

Sharp bettors might be fading the Aggies because of a downgrade in elite talent. In the 2026 NFL draft, 10 Texas A&M players got picked. Three defensive linemen were taken in the first three rounds, and an additional four starters on the offensive line got drafted.

This Texas A&M team doesn’t seem to have the elite talent to replace these draft picks. On NFLDraftBuzz.com, only six players are listed as potential NFL draft picks in August. Jordan Reid of ESPN profiled the NFL prospects of 12 teams but didn’t mention Texas A&M.

Projecting NFL draft picks is an inexact science, and Elko’s ability to develop players might mean I’m underestimating this roster. In the past two seasons, he has brought in transfers like WR KC Concepcion and edge Cashius Howell and turned them into top 50 NFL draft picks. But I’d still lean towards Texas A&M as worse than 12th in the nation.

In addition, Texas A&M has a brutal schedule with road games at LSU, Alabama and Oklahoma and Texas at home. With a market win total of 8.5, three or more losses and missing the playoff is a realistic possibility.

Texas A&M is overrated at 8th in the preseason AP poll.

Penn State, 16th

To understand the prospects for Penn State and new coach Matt Campbell, it helps to revisit the supposed disaster of 2025.

Penn State started off with national championship aspirations, ranked 2nd in the preseason AP poll. Coach James Franklin had a wealth of NFL talent that seemed on the brink taking the program to the next level.

However, Penn State imploded with six straight losses in the middle of the season. Franklin got fired after the third of these losses, a one point game at home against less than inspiring Northwestern.

Penn State finished the season with four straight wins, and it takes some careful strength of schedule adjustments to evaluate the 2025 team. To properly quantify a team over a season, I rely on my team rankings which take margin of victory in games and adjust for strength of schedule.

In 2025, Penn State finished 12th in the nation. The numerical methods recognize that five of the six losses came by one score, and they give Penn State credit for close losses against elite Oregon and Indiana teams.

In addition, eight players got drafted in the 2026 NFL draft, which somewhat justifies preseason expectations.

Now, Matt Campbell takes over after a remarkable run at Iowa State. By the latest depth chart, he brings over at least eight Iowa State players that will start at Penn State in 2025. That Iowa State team finished 27th in my team rankings.

The most important player is QB Rocco Becht. I had my doubts about Becht last season after he lost two NFL caliber receivers from 2024, but he managed to improve. Let’s look at his adjusted passing success rate numbers the past two seasons compared to the 40.7% average:

• 2024: 41.4%
• 2025: 44.3%

Becht might continue to improve but doesn’t have NFL prospects at this point.

Penn State has some stars on defense. Safety Marcus Neal Jr played the most snaps on the Iowa State defense last season and projects as a second day NFL pick according to NFLDraftBuzz. LB Tony Rojas missed most of last season but starred for Penn State in 2024. He is projected as a late round pick.

Last season, I had Campbell’s Iowa State team overrated at 22nd in the preseason AP poll. I watched in horror as they beat Kansas State as an underdog to open the season and started 5-0. However, they came back to earth with losses to Colorado and an Arizona State team missing its starting QB.

Campbell does inherit some potential star players from last year’s Penn State roster. OT Malachi Goodman came to campus as an elite recruit and could blossom into a great player. CB Daryus Dixson was solid as a freshman last season and could turn into another NFL prospect.

I respect Campbell’s coaching ability, and they might win 9 games with the easiest Power 2 schedule. However, this Penn State roster doesn’t have the players to replace eight NFL draft picks.

Penn State is overrated at 18th in the preseason AP poll.

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend?

5-Nugget Saturday is my curated list of tips and analytics. The bets come from not only myself but also other trusted sources in the industry.

In addition, these 3 overrated college football teams were first sent as email newsletters. To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”