THE POWER RANK

The can’t miss event at the Olympics, 2021

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The 400 meter hurdles has caught fire in 2021 as both world records have been broken.

Sydney McLaughlin broke the women’s world record at the US Olympic trials this June. With the injury troubles to rival Dalilah Muhammad, McLaughlin heads into the Olympics as the deserving favorite.

Norwegian Karsten Warholm broke the men’s world record by running 46.70 on home turf in Oslo. While he should also be the favorite in Toyko, he has more competition than McLaughlin for gold.

American Rai Benjamin has also been spectacular this season. At the US Olympic trials, he ran 46.83 for the 400m hurdles to come within 0.05 seconds of the world record. This would be the year’s fastest time if Warholm had not broken the world record 5 days later.

Benjamin and Warholm have run against each other twice, both in 2019. In their first meeting, Warholm held off a hard charging Benjamin in Zurich to win by 0.08 seconds.

Later that season, Warholm won the world championship in Qatar with a more healthy 0.24 second margin. However, Benjamin had sustained an injury before that race.

Since the beginning of 2019, here are the average 400m hurdle times for both men (excludes preliminary rounds in championship meets):

  • Karsten Warholm: 47.27 seconds.
  • Rai Benjamin: 47.31 seconds.

Warholm should be the favorite to win Olympic gold in the 400m hurdles, but his margin over Benjamin is razor thin.

DraftKings has Warholm at -250 (71.4% break even probability) and Benjamin at +175 (36.4%). The value is on Benjamin.

Data driven betting information. That’s been the tag line since a revamping of this email newsletter this year.

And while I’ve provided some “data” here, it’s not up to the usual standards. There is no predictive model, my own or from some other trusted source. There isn’t even a regression to give a win probability based on a difference of 0.04 seconds in the 400m hurdles.

I fear you might look at this data driven betting information the way a pro bettor views Stephen A Smith.

But even if this information isn’t as sharp as usual, it may enhance your enjoyment of a track final you should not miss (Monday, August 2nd at 11:20pm Eastern).

Data driven betting information

This article was featured in The Power Rank’s email newsletter. In a recent revamping of the newsletter, I’m striving for content that is:

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  • Concise
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As the calendar turns to August, the newsletter will focus on the NFL and college football, the specialty of The Power Rank.

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The Open golf predictions

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What have you done for me lately. The golf markets seem place a ton of emphasis on this question each week.

In my last golf newsletter, the numbers questioned whether Rory McIlroy should have been the favorite at the PGA Championship. He finished 49th at +5.

Instead of an overrated golfer, let’s focus on an underrated golfer for The Open in Britain.

Tony Finau has missed the cut in his last two tournaments. This includes the last major at the US Open in June.

However, this recent form masks stronger performance over the past year. In his 20 tournaments in 2021, he has finished top 20 in 11 of those tournaments but also missed 5 cuts.

To dig deeper into Finau, let’s look at the results of two models.

FanDuel Sportsbook has Finau at 50 to 1 to win, which gives a break even probability of 2%. I’m not a fan of such long odds. It’s like thinking England will win a penalty shoot out at a major international tournament.

Luckily, there are markets for top 10 and top 20 as well. FanDuel has Finau at +490 to finish top 10, a 16.9% break even probability. Both models have a higher probability for Finau to finish in the top 10.

The best balance of value and odds is most likely Finau at +210 to finish in the top 20. As mentioned on Covering the Spread, my FanDuel podcast, Finau has finished in the top 20 in 12 of the 21 majors he has played since 2015.

The results of the two models have significant differences. This is mostly likely because of the even playing field in pro golf. However, they agree on Tony Finau.

Both models are worth checking out before The Open tees off on Thursday morning:

Data driven betting information

This article was featured in The Power Rank’s email newsletter. In a recent revamping of the newsletter, I’m striving for content that is:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

As the calendar turns to August, most of these emails will focus on the NFL and college football, the specialty of The Power Rank.

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Italy at England, Euro 2021 Final Prediction

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Do you remember the college football Game of the Century?

In 2011, LSU and Les Miles traveled to Alabama and Nick Saban in a match up of undefeated college football teams. This prime time game featured the top 2 teams in the BCS rankings.

Do you remember how the game turned out?

LSU won 9-6 in overtime as neither team scored a touchdown or broke 300 yards of offense.

In 2021, the Euro final between Italy and England should have a similar defensive flavor. By my calculations, Italy and England have the 2nd and 4th best defenses in the world based on matches since the beginning of 2016.

Let’s say you’re new to soccer, and you’ve been hearing about these exciting Euro matches like Spain vs Croatia and France vs Switzerland that have made hearts stop around the world. You want to check out the final on Sunday.

This is not going to be a great game for you. England vs Italy will be like reading Dickens aloud on a first date.

The defensive nature of the affair does offer some betting value. My numbers imply a 73% chance of under 2.5 goals. DraftKings has a price of -195, a break even probability of 66% that has already risen since it opened.

Which team will win Euro? My numbers give a slight edge to England at 57% to win.

This prediction gives England a home advantage for a game played in London. In the book Scorecasting, Jon Wertheim and Toby Moskowitz identify unconscious referee bias as one factor in home advantage. The man does eventually need to leave Wembley in a city full of England fans.

In the semi-final against Denmark, England scored the winning goal after a penalty shot award by the referee. While the contact on Raheem Sterling in real time was clear, the replay suggested a lack of force in this contact.

The Italians are just as likely to go down after soft contact in the box. But the location of this game tilts the odds that England will get a critical decision that could decide the game.

Regulation probabilities (90 minutes plus stoppage time): England hosting Italy: England has a 41.0% chance to win. Italy has a 26.7% chance to win. There is a 32.3% chance for a tie.

Data driven betting information

This article was featured in The Power Rank’s email newsletter. In a recent revamping of the newsletter, I’m striving for content that is:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

While most of these emails will focus on American football, I do plan to use my world soccer numbers to analyze World Cup qualifiers over the next year.

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England, narrative vs numbers

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England came into Euro 2020 with a wealth of attacking talent. These players include:

  • Harry Kane, 23 goals for Tottenham this past season
  • Raheem Sterling, who has averaged over 16 goals the past 4 seasons with Manchester City
  • Jadon Sancho, a player Manchester United recently emptied an armored truck to obtain

However, this wealth of attacking talent is not consistent with my numbers. Let me explain.

For world soccer, I take matches since the beginning of 2016 and adjust for schedule with my ranking algorithm. These rankings for the offense and defense of each nation let me make predictions for matches.

For England, my numbers like their defense (4th in the world) compared to their offense (12th). The results in Euro (4 goals scored, 0 goals allowed in 4 matches) support that England has a better defense.

To understand this discrepancy between talent and results, I talked with Mike Goodman, Senior Soccer Editor at CBS, on the podcast this week. He explained that England plays a conservative style that keeps their midfielders focused on defense. In addition, Sancho has played 7 minutes in this tournament.

England keeps players back and hopes for the best with their offensive talent. This conservative strategy is like if Scarlett Johannson showed up at the Black Widow premier in baggy sweats. Not exactly putting yourself out there.

Against Ukraine, my numbers give a 64% chance of fewer than 2.5 goals. Ukraine is neither strong on offense or defense, and my model predicts 0.63 goals for them, the biggest factor in the high probability for the under.

On DraftKings, you can find a price of -127 (56% break even probability) for under 2.5 goals in England vs Ukraine.

England doesn’t play a beautiful game like Spain and Italy, nations with the skill to string together multiple passes in finding scoring opportunities. Instead, England is more likely to kick the ball over the top and use their athleticism to create opportunities.

If you take England’s style to the extreme, they are like Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Greek Freak dominates the NBA with his athleticism. However, he often lacks skill, as he has missed the rim on multiple free throws during the playoffs.

No matter how they play, two factors favor England:

  • They can not play other favorites Belgium, Italy and Spain until the final.
  • The semi-final and final in London will give them home field advantage.

While there is no guarantee, England is the favorite to win the European Championship.

Data driven betting information

This article was featured in The Power Rank’s email newsletter. In a recent revamping of the newsletter, I’m striving for content that is:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

While most of these emails will focus on American football, I do plan to use my world soccer numbers to analyze World Cup qualifiers over the next year.

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An essential tool for college football championship futures

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After an awkward pandemic season, you’re pumped for college football in 2021. The return of a regular schedule makes you want to bet which team will win the college football playoff.

A team you might consider is Iowa State. In 2020, Matt Campbell led the Cyclones to a regular season Big 12 title and a bowl win over Oregon.

In addition, they bring back Brock Purdy, possibly the best QB to ever play at the school, among a ton of other starters. Iowa State is top 10 in the preseason rankings by SP and ESPN’s FPI.

However, there is a reason to not bet Iowa State to win the college football playoff, and it has to do with recruiting.

Bud Elliott is a national recruiting analyst 247Sports, and he has developed the Blue Chip Ratio (BCR), which tracks the percentage of 4 and 5 stars a team recruits over a four year period (transfers and walk-ons do not count in the total number of recruits).

Here’s the take home message: if a college football team doesn’t have more 4 and 5 star recruits than 2 and 3 star recruits (Blue Chip Ratio over 50%), they are not winning a national title. Talent and depth matter, and that’s a bad sign for Iowa State.

Let’s look at the top 5 teams and their BCR heading into 2021.

  1. Alabama, 84%. Duh. Nick Saban’s inclusion on this list is about as obvious as a bag man’s delivery to a top recruit.
  2. Georgia, 80%. Kirby Smart has done the work in recruiting. Does he have the QB in JT Daniels to get the Bulldogs past Alabama?
  3. Ohio State, 79%. Ryan Day enters his 3rd season as head coach but first without superstar QB Justin Fields. Overall talent on the roster will not be an excuse.
  4. Clemson, 67%. While there is quite a drop in BCR at the 4th, Clemson has always been known to combine elite recruits with hungry 3 star guys. Don’t expect a drop off from Dabo Swinney’s team.
  5. LSU, 66%. Ed Orgeron has always been known as a recruiter, and his time at LSU has been no different. However, it was a transfer in QB Joe Burrow that led the Tigers to a championship in 2019.

Inclusion on the list of 16 teams with a BCR over 50% in no way guarantees a crack at a national title. Do you think Michigan can even win the Big Ten East after last season’s 2-4 disaster? Want to bet on first year Auburn coach Brian Harsin?

Someday, a team will break Bud’s rule for winning a championship. Maybe North Carolina with a 35% BCR might this season, and I’m looking forward to discussing their chances later this preseason.

To check out the Blue Chip Ratio from Bud Elliott, click here.

To check out Bud Elliott’s appearance on The Football Analytics Show podcast, click here.

Data driven betting information

This article was featured in The Power Rank’s email newsletter. In a recent revamping of the newsletter, I’m striving for content that is:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

There will be much more football content as the season approaches. To get this information delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”