Looking for sharp football betting action this Halloween weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Utah at Cincinnati, College Football Week 8 – Last week, Cincinnati pulled off a monster upset over Texas Tech at home, winning by 13 points as an 11 point underdog. However, the two teams were about equal in the underlying metrics; for example, Cincinnati had a 45.6% success rate compared to 43.4% for Texas Tech.

Utah QB Devon Dampier, an elite dual threat quarterback, leads an offense ranked 9th in success rate after my adjustments for opposing defenses. The defense was always solid when Morgan Scalley served as coordinator, and nothing has changed in his first year as Utah’s head coach (6th in adjusted success rate).

My member numbers have Utah by 9.5 points on the road at Cincinnati. Members of The Power Rank got Utah -6.5 earlier this week, as it seemed like the markets overreached to one good game by Cincinnati.

The market has moved but I would still lean Utah -7.

NFL player prop – While data driven models form the basis of most of my bets, it’s also important to look for other edges.

For example, Dr. Deepak Chona said on The Late-Round podcast that players returning from a high ankle sprain do not perform up to their full abilities at first. For example, WR AJ Brown has 6 catches for 75 yards in two games since returning to New England.

Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson returns this week from a high ankle sprain, and this most likely limits his rushing. Jackson’s rushing has been down the past two seasons as he has averaged 29.0 yards per game. This suggests value in Lamar Jackson under 25.5 rushing yards, -114 available at FanDuel.

Betting trends coming back from Europe – Pittsburgh beat New Orleans in Paris last week and face Cleveland this week without the benefit of a bye. Over the past two seasons, NFL teams in this situation are 0-8 against the spread and have lost by 8.4 points on average. This implies value in Cleveland +3.5, right?

Professional sports bettor Rob Pizzola disagrees, as he notes that teams in a similar situation from 2016-24 went 9-8 ATS and beat the spread by 1.1 points on average. The lesson: always use the largest appropriate sample size.

Rob also found a reason for the recent trend and dug into whether these tired teams faded late in games in an excellent thread on X.

How luck plays a role in sports – In the second half against Ole Miss last week, Texas QB Arch Manning fumbled for a defensive touchdown and threw an awful pick into triple coverage. A 24-3 lead evaporated into a tie game, and it seemed very likely Manning would get benched by this week at the latest.

Then a funny thing happened. The Texas ground game sprung to life, as running backs gained 118 yards on the next two drives. Texas scored 10 points on these drives to close out the win. After his pick, Manning threw one pass the remainder of the game but will remain the starter for Texas because of the win.

A resurgence in the run game never helped Michigan QB Bryce Underwood. After he got benched at half time against Penn State two weeks ago, Michigan broke a 43 yard touchdown run on the next drive.

NFL humor – Miss the details of the Colts fire sale this week? Brandon Carney will catch you up in a hilarious, not safe for Colts fans, :28 video.

Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Pittsburgh vs New Orleans, NFL Week 7 in Paris – Bob Stoll, the gold standard in football handicapping and the founder of Dr. Bob Sports, digs deep into the details of every game. For this NFL game in Paris, Bob has an interesting angle on the New Orleans Saints offense.

OG Cesar Ruiz struggled with pass protection his first few years in the league, but he has allowed an excellent 3.1% pressure rate the last two seasons. His pressure rate has been even better this season. Ruiz is questionable to play against Pittsburgh, and Bob rates the drop off to rookie Jeremiah Wright at 1.2 points.

Ruiz, a limited participant in practice on Friday after not practicing all week, is questionable to play. Even if he plays, Bob’s model has Pittsburgh by 4.5 points, and there is value in Pittsburgh -3, -110.

Check out all of Bob’s NFL analysis at Dr. Bob Sports.

Houston at Utah, College Football Week 8 – Korey Betts, who runs the excellent College Football Betting 900 podcast, notes the raw numbers overrate Utah’s pass defense. Utah has played opposing pass offenses that rank 100th on average.

In contrast, Houston’s pass offense with QB Connor Weigman ranks 1st in success rate and 26th in sacks allowed. By Korey’s projections, Houston should have 11 possessions and score 2.66 points per possession. This projects 29.3 points for a potent Houston offense against Utah.

There is value in Houston over 24.5 points, -102 available at FanDuel. Check out all of Korey’s four shows for serious college football betting information.

NFL interception prop – Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow hasn’t had the greatest season, but at least he takes care of the football. Burrow has a 1.6% interception rate this season, better than the NFL average of 2.1%.

However, interception rate isn’t a good predictor of future interceptions. My interception model looks at how often a quarterback throws the football into dangerous situations, and Burrow is worse than NFL average by this metric.

In addition, the market projects 37 pass attempts for Burrow, the highest in the NFL this week despite a competitive match up against Baltimore. More attempts imply a greater chance to throw an interception, and my model puts this probability at 57% for Burrow. There is value in Joe Burrow over 0.5 interceptions, -121 available at DraftKings.

Members of The Power Rank get access to more NFL interception props at 11am Eastern on Saturday.

Should Arch Manning get benched? Texas has lost two straight games, and two Arch Manning interceptions did not help against Oklahoma. Manning has thrown 5 interceptions this season compared to 7 interceptions all of last season.

However, Manning has not thrown the football into dangerous situation at a higher rate this season. I use bad balls, or the sum of interceptions and passes defended, to quantify this. Manning has a 12.7% bad ball rate, about the same as last season and better than the 13.2% college football average. He has been unfortunate with interceptions this season.

The data does not say the same thing about Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood, who got benched last week.

College football humor – After five top programs all lost last week, an Alabama used AI to make a video of the coaches singing “Outstanding,” a song that has become a meme for washed athletes. Kalen DeBoer is priceless in this must watch :23 video.

Just had a family member ask me how they got all the coaches together for this video.

There is no turning back. pic.twitter.com/Z9rkBp9i0E

— Adam King (@AdamKing10TV) October 22, 2026

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These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

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Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet and a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.

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Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Oklahoma State at Houston, College Football Week 7 – After getting benched for Marcel Reed in 2024, Connor Weigman transferred from Texas A&M to Houston. After a good first season, Weigman has excelled in 2026.

This season, Weigman is the 4th best QB among FBS starters in my adjusted passing success rate. This is a remarkable jump, as Weigman was outside the top 30 last season.

My member model has moved Houston from 29th this preseason to 20th, mostly based on the excellent performance of the offense. My best prediction has Houston by 6.7 points at home over Oklahoma State, and I sent members Houston -4.5 earlier this week (kick off at 7:30pm Eastern).

Members of The Power Rank get access to NFL interception props on Saturday morning at 11am Eastern.

NFL player prop – After getting off to a rough 2-3 start, the Los Angeles Rams get Arizona at home as a 12.5 point favorite. NFL analyst Clevta notes that this lopsided has consequences for RB Blake Corum.

Corum started getting more carries in the middle of last season, and he has had a median of 5 carries and 58 rushing yards in 7 games in which the Rams won by double digits. In addition, Arizona’s rush defense ranks 22nd in yards before contact and 23th in explosive run rate allowed.

There is value in Blake Corum over 42.5 rushing yards, -114 available at FanDuel (better number at theScore). Check out the excellent analysis Clevta gives to subscribers every week.

NBA futures bet – Professional bettor Michael Fiddle came on The Football Analytics Show to share his insights into the NFL and NBA. He talked about the new tanking rules as a potential edge in the NBA futures market.

This season, the bottom three teams in the NBA get fewer ping pong balls in the lottery for the top pick. This should encourage teams to win games, and win totals for the best teams should be lower as bottom teams try harder.

As these bottom teams try harder, Michael thinks it makes them less inclined to play hard against Oklahoma City, the best team in the league. Save your energy and best players for other games on a road trip. Michael sees value in Oklahoma City over 61.5.

Michael was very generous with other NBA win totals (listen at 38:00) in an excellent episode of The Football Analytics Show.

The value of NBA preseason data – It might seem crazy to use preseason data to make regular season forecasts. However, Kostya Medvedovsky, the creator of the DARKO NBA player projection system, has argued about the utility of preseason data in multiple sports.

In the NBA, Kostya looks at individual player performance versus expectation in preseason games. Games in which starters play more get more weight, and the preseason data counts more for weaker teams and less for contenders. Kostya’s model uses both market win totals and preseason data to make regular season projections, and this model is 9.8% better than market win totals alone.

For the upcoming 2026-27 season, the preseason data through October 12 gives Brooklyn a huge boost, expecting 4.4 more wins than the market (24.5 wins). For the contenders, the defending champion New York Knicks are projected to win 4.4 games less (52.5).

NFL humor – Last week, Washington screwed up the last seconds of their game, resulting in a tie with the New York Giants. This minute video by Bobby Finn captures the absurdity and hilarity of it all. Catch it on X or Instagram.

I had an aneurysm watching this pic.twitter.com/FEUdtWZRJM

— DC Ball Talk (@DCBallTalk) October 13, 2026

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

• Valuable
• Concise
• Entertaining

Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet and a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”

 

 

 

Looking for sharp football betting action this weekend? Your curated list of betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

NFL player prop – Professional bettor Robbie Peterson, who goes by @ClosingDime on X, uses mathematical models to attack NFL player props. This week, he sees value in Detroit WR Jameson Williams.

Robbie’s model predicts 61.5 receiving yards for Williams, as he faces a bad Arizona defense that has allowed 247.5 passing yards per game. Williams has big play ability, which means he may only need one or two deep receptions to go over.

There is value in Jameson Williams over 51.5 receiving yards, and Robbie would bet it at -131 or better. Follow ClosingDime on X as he often gives out his bets. He also runs BetSharpMoney, a site with a host of free betting software tools and paid services.

Buffalo at Los Angeles Rams, NFL Monday night – The Rams might only have a 2-2 record but they excel in the underlying metrics.

For example, Matt Stafford has the 4th best passing success rate among starting QB after my mathematical adjustments for opposing defenses. He has done this despite missing star WR Puka Nacua for two games.

The Buffalo pass defense had been awful, as they rank 29th in my adjusted passing success rate. In addition, they may be without key players like DT Ed Oliver, CB Dee Alford and CB Christian Benford.

My member model has Los Angeles Rams by 5.2, and they have a much better roster than the Bills. There is value in Rams -3, -120 available at DraftKings.

UCLA at Oregon, College Football Week 6 – My member model has Oregon by 10.5 at home, right on top of the market. All good, right?

Well, there is usually an adjustment when an NFL caliber QB like Dante Moore will not play. However, Dylan Raiola came in for Oregon against USC and played better than Moore this season. Raiola started two years at Nebraska and presumably could have transferred as the starter to another program.

If you’re looking to bet this game, Bud Elliott of the Cover 3 podcast likes Oregon -11. He still has questions about UCLA’s defense and thinks Oregon can get some explosive plays.

The Georgia pass offense – I had Georgia overrated at 3rd in the preseason AP poll because of a lack of talent in the receiver room. However, their pass offense ranks a very solid 10th in my adjusted yards per pass attempt.

I’m still not sure they have answered the question at receiver, as no player has been targeted 20+ times through five games. Running back Dwight Phillips Jr. led them in receiving yards in their last game.

Now, they face an Alabama secondary with multiple players who project as 2027 NFL draft picks. Sophomore CB Dijon Lee Jr. is not eligible to enter the draft but has performed as well as any of these prospects according to PFF grades. It will be a stiff test for Georgia QB Gunner Stockton and the pass offense, and hurricane conditions will not help.

My model has Alabama by 0.6 points at home.

NFL humor – “Whose fault could this possibly be?” Brandon Carney breaks down a tumultuous week for the Philadelphia Eagles in :36 and rightly assigns the blame.

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend?

5-Nugget Saturday is my curated list of tips and analytics. The bets come from not only myself but also other trusted sources in the industry.

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Looking for sharp football betting action this weekend? Your curated list of bets, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Mississippi State at Alabama, College Football Week 5 – QB Kamario Taylor has Mississippi State off to a blazing 4-0 start, and this makes their road trip to Tuscaloosa much watch college football.

Korey Betts, who runs the excellent College Football Betting 900 podcast, likes both teams to score a lot but especially Alabama. They score touchdowns on 46% of their drives and score 3.7 points on average. Given his projections for number of drives, Korey projects 40 points for Alabama.

Korey likes Alabama over 33.5 points with the best price of -113 at Caesars. Follow Korey Betts on X and check the College Football Betting 900 podcast which posts four times a week.

NFL interception prop – Indianapolis and Washington travel to London to face off in the early Sunday NFL game. It seems like Marcus Mariota will start again for Washington, but the betting value shows up for Indianapolis QB Daniel Jones.

My interception model is based on how often a QB throws the football into a dangerous situation, and Jones has a long term bad ball rate of 13.5%, worse than the NFL average of 12.3%. My model gives a 55.0% chance Jones throws a pick against Washington.

There is value in Daniel Jones over 0.5 interceptions at certain sports books such as +105 at BetMGM. Members of The Power Rank get access to all of my interception props at 12:30pm Eastern today.

College football predictions – Here is a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.

• Michigan will beat Minnesota by 8.2 points on the road – Despite the loss to Iowa, Michigan QB Bryce Underwood played an exceptional game (except for the interception) against probably an elite defense. The market has moved towards Michigan at -6 despite potential key absences like edge John Henry Daley and WR Andrew Marsh.
• Alabama will beat Mississippi State by 6.0 points on the road – The market has moved slightly towards Mississippi State at +5.5. An upset win for the Bulldogs would put QB Kamario Taylor at the top of the Heisman race.
• Ohio State will beat Iowa by 12.0 points on the road – Ohio State had issues stopping the run against Texas and Illinois, and they rank 113th in my adjusted rush success rate allowed for now. I discussed how 3 Big Ten contenders have disappointed in the most recent episode of The Football Analytics Show.

How to be clutch – I try to avoid the self help genre. The world doesn’t need more bro, work harder content from an influencer.

However, when it comes to performance in high leverage moments, Tom Brady has the credentials with 7 Super Bowl wins in 10 appearances. His latest newsletter won’t shock you, but his authority makes it worth a read.

NFL humor – The Amazon broadcast caught Aaron Rodgers actually saying “What the f*@k, call it” to his coach Mike McCarthy, although you have to read lips to understand his reply.

Aaron Rodgers: "What the F*CK, CALL IT"

Mike McCarthy: "F*cking Asshole"

LMFAO pic.twitter.com/hUTBK5Tfxx

— Max (@FantasyFBallAZ) October 2, 2026

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend?

5-Nugget Saturday is my curated list of tips and analytics. The bets come from not only myself but also other trusted sources in the industry.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”