Since 2015 season, I have predicted 3 overrated teams compared to their rank in the preseason AP poll. This page shows my record keeping of 21-6 with 3 pushes in 30 predictions through the 2025 season.
To evaluate my predictions, I looked at primarily two things:
- rank in final AP poll.
- rank in The Power Rank’s team rankings, which take margin of victory and adjust for opponent.
If a team ends the season lower in both of these rankings than in the preseason AP poll, I usually consider it a win. I tried to grade myself hard, so there are predictions that moved from win to push due to circumstances (see Tulane in 2023, UCF in 2019, Florida State in 2015).
The preseason AP poll might not seem like a difficult benchmark to attack, and pundits have it attacked these polls as fake narratives. However, these preseason polls are powerful predictors of team strength due to the wisdom of crowds.
From 2005 through 2017, the higher ranked team in the preseason AP poll won 59.9% of bowl games. Most of these games were before the bowl opt out era, which started in the 2016 season with Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette.
In the ten seasons of the four team college football playoff, 24 of 50 teams ranked in the top 5 of the preseason AP poll made the playoff field. I find that remarkable.
2025
An episode of The Football Analytics Show. 3-0.
Illinois, overrated at 12th in the preseason AP poll. Win. Illinois finished the season 9-4, outside the top 25 of the final AP poll and 38th in my team rankings.
Michigan, overrated at 14th in the preseason AP poll. Win. Michigan finished the season 9-4. After a bowl loss to Texas, they dropped from 18th to 21st in the final AP poll and were 30th in my team rankings.
Iowa State, overrated at 22nd in the preseason AP poll. Win. Iowa State got off to a 5-0 start but finished the season 8-4. They didn’t play in a bowl game as coach Matt Campbell left for Penn State and didn’t get any votes in the final AP poll. The only reason to argue this should be a push is their rank of 27th in my team rankings. However, I think this should be a win as Iowa State lost to a terrible Colorado team and Arizona State without their starting QB.
2024
An episode of The Football Analytics Show. 2-1. First year of the 12 team CFB playoff.
Missouri, overrated at 9th in preseason AP poll. Win. Missouri finished with a 10-3 record, but this was bolstered by a 6-1 record in one score games. Missouri finished 22nd in the AP poll and 36th in my team rankings.
Arizona, overrated at 21st in the preseason AP poll. Win. Arizona finished 4-8 under new coach Brent Brennan.
Texas, overrated at 4th in the preseason AP poll. Loss. Texas made it to the college football playoff semi-final before losing to Ohio State.
2023
Newsletters on TCU and Michigan, and then Tulane in 5-Nugget Saturday. 1-1-1.
TCU, overrated at 17th in the preseason AP poll. Win. TCU lost to Colorado in the first game and finished 5-7.
Michigan, overrated at 2nd in the preseason AP poll. Loss. Michigan won the national championship.
Tulane, overrated at 24th in the preseason AP poll. Push. Tulane went 11-1 in the regular season with a perfect conference record. They lost to SMU in the conference championship game, and they fell out of the final AP poll after a bowl loss to Virginia Tech (QB Michael Pratt didn’t play). They were 63rd in my team rankings, but I still consider this a push given the circumstances of their season.
2022
An episode of Preview Series for The Football Analytics Show. 3-0.
Notre Dame, overrated at 5th in the preseason AP poll. Win. Notre Dame finished 9-4, which included a loss to Marshall. They ended 18th in the final AP poll and 19th in my team rankings.
Michigan State, overrated at 15th in the preseason AP poll. Win. Michigan State finished 5-7.
Pittsburgh, overrated at 17th in the preseason AP poll. Win. Pittsburgh had a 9-4 record, finished 22nd in the final AP poll and 39th in my team rankings.
2021
An episode of the Preview Series for The Football Analytics Show. 2-1.
Notre Dame, overrated at 9th in the preseason AP poll. Loss. Notre Dame had an 11-2 record and were the first team not to make the four team CFB playoff (ranked 5th). They finished 8th in the final AP poll and 13th in my team rankings.
Oregon, overrated at 11th in the preseason AP poll. Win. Oregon finished 10-4, 22nd in the final AP poll and 27th in my team rankings.
USC, overrated at 15th in the preseason AP poll. Win. USC had a 4-8 record, and coach Clay Helton got fired after two games.
2020
COVID sent college football scrambling to have a season. I did not make any overrated predictions.
2019
An episode of the first Preview Series on The Football Analytics Show, but also a written version. 1-1-1.
Texas, overrated at 10th in the preseason AP poll. Win. Texas went 8-5, finished 25th in the final AP poll and 13th in my team rankings.
Oregon, overrated at 11th in the preseason AP poll. Loss. Oregon went 12-2, as QB Justin Herbert led the Ducks to Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin. They finished 5th in the final AP poll and 9th in my team rankings.
UCF, overrated at 17th in the preseason AP poll. Push. UCF went 10-3, finished 24th in the final AP poll and 22nd in my team rankings. I feel uncomfortable call this a win because they lost three games by a total of 7 points, so let’s call it a push.
2018
An episode of The Football Analytics Show. 2-1.
Wisconsin, overrated at 4th in the preseason AP poll. Win. Wisconsin went 8-5, finished outside the top 25 of the final AP poll and 36th in my team rankings.
Miami (FL), overrated at 8th in the preseason AP poll. Win. Miami went 7-6, didn’t get a vote in the final AP poll and was 45th in my team rankings. They lost to overrated Wisconsin by a 35-3 score in the Pinstripe Bowl.
West Virginia, overrated at 17th in the preseason AP poll. Loss. West Virginia went 8-4, finished 20th in the final AP poll and 16th in my team rankings. QB Will Grier led them to an 8-3 record but sat out the bowl loss to Syracuse.
2017
An article on Football Study Hall at SB Nation. 2-1.
Oklahoma State, overrated at 10th in the preseason AP poll. Win. Oklahoma State went 10-3, finished 14th in the final AP poll and 13th in my team rankings. Not the strongest win.
USC, overrated at 4th in the preseason AP poll. Win. USC went 11-3 with the help of a 4-1 record in one score games. They finished 12th in the final AP poll and 23rd in my team rankings.
Penn State, overrated at 6th in the preseason AP poll. Loss. Penn State went 11-2, finished 8th in the final AP poll and 6th in my team rankings.
2016
An article on Football Study Hall at SB Nation. 3-0.
Michigan State, overrated at 12th in the preseason AP poll. Win. Michigan State went 3-9.
Houston, overrated at 15th in the preseason AP poll. Win. Houston went 9-4, finished outside the top 25 in the final AP poll and 27th in my team rankings.
Iowa, overrated at 17th in the preseason AP poll. Win. Iowa had an 8-5 record, finished outside the top 25 in the final AP poll and 35th in my team rankings.
2015
An article on Football Study Hall at SB Nation. I use the Coaches Poll in the article but put AP rankings here. 2-0-1.
Auburn, overrated at 7th in the preseason AP poll. Win. Auburn went 7-6, didn’t get a vote in the final AP poll and was 32nd in my team rankings.
Florida State, overrated at 10th in the preseason AP poll. Push. Florida State went 10-3, finished 14th in the final AP poll and 11th in my team rankings. Dalvin Cook was pretty good at 7.4 yards per carry. FSU was 8th in the Coaches Poll, but I should probably call this a push.
USC, overrated at 8th in the preseason AP poll. Win. USC went 8-6, finished outside the top 25 in the final AP poll and 26th in my team rankings.