Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

French Open – Carlos Alcaraz is the favorite to win at Roland Garros, but he faces a tough Round 4 challenge on Sunday. Lorenzo Musetti burst onto the scene in 2022 by winning at Hamburg on clay, taking down Alcaraz in the final as a +675 underdog.

Sharp quantitative bettor Drew Dinsick notes that Musetti has the tools and unique shotmaking to play with the best in the world and pull off another upset. Drew likes a small exposure on Musetti to beat Alcaraz (+450 at FanDuel).

However, Drew notes two factors that make him like another bet more:

• the narrow margin between these two players
• their general lack of experience in the best of five format

Drew likes over 33.5 games (-110 at DraftKings) as he thinks this match goes four if not five sets.

Follow Drew Dinsick for all of his NFL, NBA and tennis insights. You can also find him on the Bet the Edge podcast.

Player prop, Miami at Denver – Gabe Vincent went undrafted out of UC Santa Barbara, but he has worked his into the NBA. In 2023, he has started all 18 playoff games for Miami in which he has played (Vincent missed Game 5 against Boston due to an injury).

Vincent has averaged 13.4 points in the playoffs, but this high average has benefitted from 40% shooting from three. He should regress to his career average of 34%, which suggests value in under 12.5 points.

This regression stuff is the same reasoning I used to go under 13.5 points for Caleb Martin in last week’s 5-Nuggets. That bet lost by halftime.

However, regression finally hit Martin, as the Miami player had 3 points in game 1 against Denver. In addition, he didn’t play down the stretch, which shows that Eric Spoelstra has a quick hook for role players. This could lead to fewer minutes for Vincent in game 2, and I like under 12.5 points (-110 DraftKings).

Market perspective on NBA Finals – Chris Andrews is the book maker at South Point sports book, one of the few remaining outlets that welcomes sharp action.

Before the start of Game 1 of the Finals, Chris tweeted that he opened Denver -8.5 before moving to -9. He was still seeing a lot of action on the favorite before tip.

For Game 2, Denver -8.5 is the consensus as of Saturday morning. This move towards Miami might be the result of the Zig Zag theory that suggests betting the spread on the team that lost the previous game.

Follow Chris Andrews for all of his insights from behind the counter. You can also check out his hilarious book on book making or his new novel about fixing a football game.

Home advantage in sports – Michael Lopez, a Ph.D. in Biostatistics that now works for the NFL, was the lead author in a study that looked at home advantage across a number of major sports.

They applied Bayesian methods to market data to estimate team strength and home advantage for each team. There are two conclusions to highlight:

• The Denver Nuggets had the largest home advantage across all sports by probability to beat an equal caliber opponent at home. The path to an NBA championship will be difficult for Miami. Altitude is most likely a factor, as the Utah Jazz have the second highest home advantage.
• The home advantage is relatively uniform for NFL teams. In addition, the home advantage for all NFL teams are lower than every NBA team but higher than all NHL and MLB teams.

Follow Michael Lopez for all kinds of data driven insights and information on NFL data bowl contests.

Humor – Even evolution gets is wrong. A doctor becomes a front runner for a Darwin Award by dying in a crash of a hand built airplane.

Unfortunately, the doctor probably used his own sperm in fertility treatments of women. You can’t make this stuff up. (Thanks to Josh Hermsmeyer for putting this in my feed.)

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Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Champions League, FA Cup predictions – Manchester City has locked up the Premier League, but can they also win these other two trophies? These predictions come from expected goals (xG at FBRef.com) adjusted for opponent with The Power Rank algorithm.

First, the Champions League final in Istanbul, Turkey on June 10th.

• Manchester City vs Inter – Manchester City has a 56.0% chance to win. Inter has a 20.4% chance to win. There is a 23.6% chance for a tie.

The markets on higher for Pep Guardiola to win his first Champions League with Manchester City, as Pinnacle has a 69.3% break even probability for the win in regulation.

It will only be slightly easier against Manchester United in the FA Cup Final at a neutral site in London on June 3.

• Manchester City vs Manchester Utd – Manchester City has a 57.4% chance to win. Manchester Utd has a 20.2% chance to win. There is a 22.4% chance for a tie.

The markets see this as a closer final than against Inter, as Pinnacle has a 64.9% break even probability for a Man City win in regulation.

Boston at Miami, Game 6 – The total for this game is 210, the lowest of the series. As Drew Dinsick explained in a previous 5-Nuggets, possessions become longer late in a series as teams become more familiar with each other.

In addition, stars like Jimmy Butler and Jason Tatum take more shots late in the series. This means that I’m looking to bet the under on points for role players.

In this series against Boston, Miami’s Caleb Martin has made a healthy 45.2% of this threes and a ridiculous 75% of his twos. With increased minutes, he will not regress to his regular season average of 9.6 points. However, I do think there is value in under 13.5 points for Martin in Game 6 as the stars take over (-128 at FanDuel).

Nascar Coca-Cola 600 – Ross Chastain has yet to win a race this season. In addition, he has managed to piss off his opponents; for example, his aggressive driving at the Goodyear 400 ended in a wreck.

However, Jim Sannes of FanDuel notes that Ross Chastain has done well in Nascar Cup Series races similar to the Coca-Cola 600. Jim likes to look at average running position, since the finish is only one snapshot during the race. Average running position provides a larger sample of data to predict the future.

In the previous five races with the intermediate rules package, Chastain’s average running position has never been worse than 7th. Jim’s model has his odds to win at greater than 10%, which suggests value at Chastain +900 to win.

Predictive analytics story – John Sears, a special advisor to the Los Angeles Dodgers, came on The Football Analytics Show and told a fantastic story about his time with Sam Hinkie and the Philadelphia 76ers.

John and co-workers spent months working on a player model for the 2015 NBA draft. The Sixers ended up picking Jahlil Okafor, a big from Duke that didn’t work out.

However, John doesn’t regret the model or the decision to take Okafor. Instead, he thinks they missed out on the macro NBA trend that devalued big men. The story is a must listen whether you want to work for a team or develop a betting model (listen for five minutes starting at 33:50).

John also talked about working at the Federal Reserve during the financial crisis and the fascinating data sets the Dodgers are looking to hire people to work on in a fabulous episode of The Football Analytics Show.

Golf humor – Michael Block, a non-professional, blew up the golf world with a hole in one and 15th place finish at the PGA Championship last weekend. Michael Jordan texted him after the event.

However, regression is a bulldog that bites you in the ass. Block had the worst score at the Charles Schwab Challenge this week and didn’t make the cut. Andy Molitor captured the moment with perfection.

Checking in on Michael Block week to week pic.twitter.com/PpUnpjG2RS

— Andy Molitor (@AndyMSFW) May 25, 2023

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

• Valuable
• Concise
• Entertaining

While NFL and college football are the main focus, 5-Nuggets will continue to curate bets from the sharpest minds in the business all off season.

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Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

PGA Championship – Scott Scheffler is only tied for the lead, as Victor Hovland and Corey Conners are also at -5 through two rounds. However, other pre-tourney favorites like Jon Rahm and Xander Schauffele have faded.

After two rounds, Data Golf gives Scheffler a 42.4% chance to win the PGA Championship. As of Saturday morning, FanDuel has Scheffler at +150 (break even probability of 40%), a price that was +160 on Friday night.

The Data Golf predictions suggest value at Scheffler +150 to win the PGA Championship.

Preakness – In previous version of 5-Nuggets, Mike Somich of VSIN landed a big winner in Mage (18-1 when the newsletter went out). A few weeks later, Mage is now the favorite at the Preakness, and he will face seven horses not featured at the Kentucky Derby.

Mike still likes Mage to win, as he notes that the horse was only whipped once in the final straight at the Kentucky Derby and has worked out well since then. Mage is currently 8-5 at FanDuel Racing.

If you do need an underdog, Mike talked about Perform on You Better You Bet. The results have not been there, but Perform is a talented horse. This sounds like the same kind of high variance horse that Mike pegged Mage as before the Kentucky Derby. Perform is 15-1 to win the Preakness.

USFL – In 2020, NFL teams scored a record number of points. Empty stadiums meant that offenses had an advantage as players could hear the QB with clarity.

The USFL has a similar situation in Detroit due to a lack of fan support. With the team hub system, multiple teams share a home field, and games at Ford Field have been empty.

This advantage for the offense is one reason Right Angle Sports (RAS) released over 45 earlier this week on New Orleans vs Philadelphia at Ford Field. The total no longer has any value at 48.

However, the insight about more points at an empty Ford Field also applies when Philadelphia plays Michigan on Sunday, June 18. To get their free USFL plays, check out the RAS Discord channel.

NFL bad ball rate – Dallas QB Dak Prescott has been one of the NFL’s best, but he struggled through the 2022 season. His 3.7% interception rate was by far the worst of his career (2.3% NFL average in 2022).

Did Dak get unlucky in 2022? While interception rate is not predictive, my research has shown that you can do better in predicting picks by expanding the set of plays.

The NFL play by play tracks pass defended, or an incomplete pass in which a defender gets a hand on the ball or jars it loose with a hit. Bad ball rate, or interceptions and pass defended divided by pass attempts, is predictive.

Unfortunately, Dak had a poor bad ball rate in 2022 (13.2% compared to the NFL average of 12.2%). However, his 3 year rate of 11.4% is NFL average.

Maybe Dak had lingering issues with a thumb injury that caused him to put a higher rate of passes in dangerous positions. Or he had issues with now departed OC Kellen Moore. No matter the issues, Dak’s interception rate should regress to NFL average in 2023.

To check out all my data on NFL bad ball rate, click here.

Soccer humor – A Spanish TV host started his show with three minutes of silence after Real Madrid’s loss to Manchester City. I now expect Pat McAfee to have 6 minutes of silence when Aaron Rodgers and the Jets end their season, which should make for an outstanding podcast.

SPANISH TV HOST STARTS SHOW WITH THREE MINUTES OF SILENCE AFTER REAL MADRID’S LOSS TO MANCHESTER CITY. 🇪🇸 😢

Many people would prefer if we did the MiB Show this way all the time. 😉
pic.twitter.com/lj2S7kiiLH

— Men in Blazers (@MenInBlazers) May 18, 2023

Please do not watch the entire clip. I can confirm that the host does not speak.

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

• Valuable
• Concise
• Entertaining

While NFL and college football are the main focus, 5-Nuggets will continue to curate bets from the sharpest minds in the business all off season.

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