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The can’t miss event at the Olympics, 2021
The 400 meter hurdles has caught fire in 2021 as both world records have been broken.
Sydney McLaughlin broke the women’s world record at the US Olympic trials this June. With the injury troubles to rival Dalilah Muhammad, McLaughlin heads into the Olympics as the deserving favorite.
Norwegian Karsten Warholm broke the men’s world record by running 46.70 on home turf in Oslo. While he should also be the favorite in Toyko, he has more competition than McLaughlin for gold.
American Rai Benjamin has also been spectacular this season. At the US Olympic trials, he ran 46.83 for the 400m hurdles to come within 0.05 seconds of the world record. This would be the year’s fastest time if Warholm had not broken the world record 5 days later.
Benjamin and Warholm have run against each other twice, both in 2019. In their first meeting, Warholm held off a hard charging Benjamin in Zurich to win by 0.08 seconds.
Later that season, Warholm won the world championship in Qatar with a more healthy 0.24 second margin. However, Benjamin had sustained an injury before that race.
Since the beginning of 2019, here are the average 400m hurdle times for both men (excludes preliminary rounds in championship meets):
- Karsten Warholm: 47.27 seconds.
- Rai Benjamin: 47.31 seconds.
Warholm should be the favorite to win Olympic gold in the 400m hurdles, but his margin over Benjamin is razor thin.
DraftKings has Warholm at -250 (71.4% break even probability) and Benjamin at +175 (36.4%). The value is on Benjamin.
Data driven betting information. That’s been the tag line since a revamping of this email newsletter this year.
And while I’ve provided some “data” here, it’s not up to the usual standards. There is no predictive model, my own or from some other trusted source. There isn’t even a regression to give a win probability based on a difference of 0.04 seconds in the 400m hurdles.
I fear you might look at this data driven betting information the way a pro bettor views Stephen A Smith.
But even if this information isn’t as sharp as usual, it may enhance your enjoyment of a track final you should not miss (Monday, August 2nd at 11:20pm Eastern).
Data driven betting information
This article was featured in The Power Rank’s email newsletter. In a recent revamping of the newsletter, I’m striving for content that is:
- Valuable
- Concise
- Entertaining
As the calendar turns to August, the newsletter will focus on the NFL and college football, the specialty of The Power Rank.
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Podcast: Adam Levitan on DFS, NFL season-long player props
On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, I’m joined by Adam Levitan, founder of Establish the Run and DFS expert. Among other topics, we discuss:
- Game selection in DFS (8:30)
- The different strategies for cash games vs guaranteed prize pools (14:23)
- The surprising statistic used to pick a defense (18:27)
- Adam’s weekly process for building a DFS lineup (19:53)
- NFL season-long player props (24:48)
- How his ebook Skin to Fur came about (28:58)
- Sam Hinkie (46:06)
When we talked about Hinkie, his manifesto and his recommendation of the book Empire of the Summer Moon came up.
To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.
The podcast is also available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
The Open golf predictions
What have you done for me lately. The golf markets seem place a ton of emphasis on this question each week.
In my last golf newsletter, the numbers questioned whether Rory McIlroy should have been the favorite at the PGA Championship. He finished 49th at +5.
Instead of an overrated golfer, let’s focus on an underrated golfer for The Open in Britain.
Tony Finau has missed the cut in his last two tournaments. This includes the last major at the US Open in June.
However, this recent form masks stronger performance over the past year. In his 20 tournaments in 2021, he has finished top 20 in 11 of those tournaments but also missed 5 cuts.
To dig deeper into Finau, let’s look at the results of two models.
- Brandon Gdula of numberFire, who uses multiple data sources to adjust tournament results for field strength. He has Finau at 2.5% to win, 20.0% to finish top 10.
- Abnormally Distributed, a professional bettor with an academic background. While he doesn’t reveal the details of his model, he commanded credibility in a recent interview on the Circles Off podcast. He has Finau at 2.0% to win, 17.4% to finish top 10.
FanDuel Sportsbook has Finau at 50 to 1 to win, which gives a break even probability of 2%. I’m not a fan of such long odds. It’s like thinking England will win a penalty shoot out at a major international tournament.
Luckily, there are markets for top 10 and top 20 as well. FanDuel has Finau at +490 to finish top 10, a 16.9% break even probability. Both models have a higher probability for Finau to finish in the top 10.
The best balance of value and odds is most likely Finau at +210 to finish in the top 20. As mentioned on Covering the Spread, my FanDuel podcast, Finau has finished in the top 20 in 12 of the 21 majors he has played since 2015.
The results of the two models have significant differences. This is mostly likely because of the even playing field in pro golf. However, they agree on Tony Finau.
Both models are worth checking out before The Open tees off on Thursday morning:
Data driven betting information
This article was featured in The Power Rank’s email newsletter. In a recent revamping of the newsletter, I’m striving for content that is:
- Valuable
- Concise
- Entertaining
As the calendar turns to August, most of these emails will focus on the NFL and college football, the specialty of The Power Rank.
To get this information delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”
Podcast: Brendan Kent on sports analytics
On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, I’m joined by Brendan Kent, host of the Measurables podcast and Senior Business Data Analyst at DraftKings. Among other topics, we discuss:
- How he got a job with the Portland Timbers as an undergraduate at Harvard (4:18)
- His Sports Analytics 101 series for Linfield University and his website (13:40)
- The story behind his Measurables podcast (19:59)
- Office Hours for underrepresented minorities in sports analytics (24:12)
- Advice for young people to break into sports analytics (26:55)
To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle:
To listen on Apple Podcasts, click here.