Looking for sharp football betting action this weekend? Your curated list of bets, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Mississippi State at Alabama, College Football Week 5 – QB Kamario Taylor has Mississippi State off to a blazing 4-0 start, and this makes their road trip to Tuscaloosa much watch college football.

Korey Betts, who runs the excellent College Football Betting 900 podcast, likes both teams to score a lot but especially Alabama. They score touchdowns on 46% of their drives and score 3.7 points on average. Given his projections for number of drives, Korey projects 40 points for Alabama.

Korey likes Alabama over 33.5 points with the best price of -113 at Caesars. Follow Korey Betts on X and check the College Football Betting 900 podcast which posts four times a week.

NFL interception prop – Indianapolis and Washington travel to London to face off in the early Sunday NFL game. It seems like Marcus Mariota will start again for Washington, but the betting value shows up for Indianapolis QB Daniel Jones.

My interception model is based on how often a QB throws the football into a dangerous situation, and Jones has a long term bad ball rate of 13.5%, worse than the NFL average of 12.3%. My model gives a 55.0% chance Jones throws a pick against Washington.

There is value in Daniel Jones over 0.5 interceptions at certain sports books such as +105 at BetMGM. Members of The Power Rank get access to all of my interception props at 12:30pm Eastern today.

College football predictions – Here is a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.

• Michigan will beat Minnesota by 8.2 points on the road – Despite the loss to Iowa, Michigan QB Bryce Underwood played an exceptional game (except for the interception) against probably an elite defense. The market has moved towards Michigan at -6 despite potential key absences like edge John Henry Daley and WR Andrew Marsh.
• Alabama will beat Mississippi State by 6.0 points on the road – The market has moved slightly towards Mississippi State at +5.5. An upset win for the Bulldogs would put QB Kamario Taylor at the top of the Heisman race.
• Ohio State will beat Iowa by 12.0 points on the road – Ohio State had issues stopping the run against Texas and Illinois, and they rank 113th in my adjusted rush success rate allowed for now. I discussed how 3 Big Ten contenders have disappointed in the most recent episode of The Football Analytics Show.

How to be clutch – I try to avoid the self help genre. The world doesn’t need more bro, work harder content from an influencer.

However, when it comes to performance in high leverage moments, Tom Brady has the credentials with 7 Super Bowl wins in 10 appearances. His latest newsletter won’t shock you, but his authority makes it worth a read.

NFL humor – The Amazon broadcast caught Aaron Rodgers actually saying “What the f*@k, call it” to his coach Mike McCarthy, although you have to read lips to understand his reply.

Aaron Rodgers: "What the F*CK, CALL IT"

Mike McCarthy: "F*cking Asshole"

LMFAO pic.twitter.com/hUTBK5Tfxx

— Max (@FantasyFBallAZ) October 2, 2026

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend?

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Looking for sharp football betting action this weekend? Your curated list of bets, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

NFL interception prop – Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence seems about league average in turnover prevention. Since the start of the 2022 season, he has a 2.4% interception rate, close to the 2.2% NFL average.

When I predict interceptions, I look not only at interceptions but also passes defended, or plays in which the defense gets a hand on a pass. Bad balls are the sum of interceptions and passes defended, and bad ball rate gives how often a QB throws the football into dangerous situations.

Lawrence has a bad ball rate of 14.9%, one of the worst in the NFL. My interception model gives a 57.1% that he throws a pick against New England. There is value in Trevor Lawrence over 0.5 interceptions at -114, available at FanDuel.

I use a higher threshold for interception props for members of The Power Rank, and these get sent out at 11am Eastern every Saturday.

NFL passing yards prop – On the Move the Line podcast, Connor Allen of 4for4 Bets made the case against Marcus Mariota. The Washington back up quarterback faces an uphill battle against an excellent Seattle defense.

Seattle held New England QB Drake Maye to 178 passing yards when he had WR AJ Brown for part of the game. In addition, Washington won’t have two starters on the offensive line (Sam Cosmi, Laremy Tunsil) against Seattle.

Connor likes Marcus Mariota under 173.5 passing yards, available at BetMGM, despite the low yardage number. Follow Connor Allen for all of his NFL player prop insights.

The Detroit Lions offense with and without Ben Johnson – Ben Johnson’s Chicago offense exploded for 59 points in Week 1. It made me wonder how the Lions have performed since the offensive guru left after the 2024 season.

While Detroit’s offense peaked in 2024, the last season with Johnson as coordinator, the 2025 offense rated about the same as the 2022 and 2023 offenses with Johnson. This holds no matter what simple or advanced metrics you use.

I also included some analysis on head coach Dan Campbell’s play calling last season after he took over from his OC John Morton. Catch the latest episode of The Football Analytics Show on Spotify, YouTube or The Power Rank.

Analytics driven story telling – I had never looked into the NFL’s passing rating statistic until I was asked to by audio producer Harry Swartout. On Echo of the Whistle, he uses an NFL game in which both quarterbacks had a 0.0 rating to tell a rich data driven story on passer rating.

Harry contrasts my data driven approach with thoughts of Nathan Peterman, the NFL quarterback most famous for throwing five interceptions in a half of a game. And that game wasn’t the one in which he earned a 0.0 passer rating.

This 30 minute podcast episode of Echo of the Whistle is an awesome companion for that next car ride.

NFL humor – Injuries to young quarterbacks stripped Week 2 out of a lot of joy. At least we can laugh at contrasting the exits of New York Giants QB Jaxson Dart (done for the year with a knee injury) with Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams (probably back in a few weeks with a hamstring pull). This video is worth 15 seconds of your time.

You’ll never guess which quarterback is out for the season pic.twitter.com/dvFNzGS4k4

— Payne (@PayneInsider) September 23, 2026

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

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Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet and a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.

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