On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, I’m joined by Drew Dinsick, an NFL bettor who uses his background in earthquake engineering to beat the markets. He goes by Whale Capper on Twitter and hosts the Deep Dive Betting Podcast.

Among other topics, we discuss:

• How his model based on earthquake engineering works (5:20)
• How the data inputs into his model have changed over the years (10:15)
• Turnovers, EPA/play and regression (14:40)
• Tampa Bay at Green Bay (20:50)
• Buffalo at Kansas City (28:53)
• Mole and Mexico City (40:01)
• Rocket science (42:35)

While he has top notch technical chops, Drew can also break down football with the best of them, and it comes through in his analysis of the two games.

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On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, Chris Andrews, the Director of the Sportsbook at the South Point Casino in Las Vegas, joins me to talk about the NFL Playoffs.

Among other topics, we discuss:

• How Chris sets the market, and how numbers play a role (2:38)
• The total in Alabama vs Ohio State, and how college football has changed (7:17)
• The impact of public money during the NFL post season (12:44)
• Rams at Packers, and the sharp vs public money (10:03)
• Ravens at Bills, and momentum in the NFL (17:09)
• Browns at Chiefs, and the Super Bowl prospects of the latter (22:00)
• Bucs at Saints, and the thing Chris can’t put his finger on (25:27)

The conversation also touches upon Thomas Pynchon, home field advantage with no fans, poker and Winston Churchill.

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle:

To listen on Apple Podcasts, click here.

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, NFL handicapper Fabian Sommer joins me. Among other topics, we discuss:

• Fabian’s three part approach to analyzing football games (5:20)
• Dividing credit for Buffalo’s offense between Josh Allen and everyone else (10:09, he later does the same for Jared Goff at 18:37)
• How evaluating defensive players depends on scheme (12:52)
• Rams at Seahawks (14:55)
• Ravens at Titans (21:48)
• Browns at Steelers (26:00)
• A final game in which Fabian finds value (29:52)

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle:

To listen on Apple Podcasts, click here.