These win probabilities are based on my member numbers that combine data from games with the markets.  The numbers differ from the win probabilities in the interactive visual, as these numbers use more data and should be more accurate.

Virginia, 47.3%

Carson Edwards went nuts in the Elite 8.  It’s not just that the Purdue guard made 10 of 19 from three point range.  It’s how he did it, pulling up 5 feet from behind the arc on some of his attempts.

However, Virginia survived.  Yes, they needed some luck to tie the game in regulation.  But Tony Bennett, not thought of as a tournament coach, makes his first Final Four.

With all due respect to Michigan State, Virginia is the best team in the final four.  Without Duke and Gonzaga in the tournament, they’re pushing even odds to win the tournament.

Michigan State, 30.1%

Cassius Winston gets most of the headlines as Michigan State’s point guard and leading scorer.  However, Xavier Tillman might be their best player. 

The 6’8″ forward only cracked the starting lineup when Nick Ward got hurt. However, Tillman has made the most of this opportunity.  He was able to stay in front of Zion Williamson in their Elite 8 contest against Duke, and he’s the primary screener in Michigan State’s pick and roll.

Tom Izzo has done a great coaching job with this team, and they have the second best odds behind Virginia.

Texas Tech, 15.4%

Texas Tech has the nation’s best defense by my points per possession adjusted for schedule.  They play a high pressure style that creates turnovers and a high rate of fouls.

The question with Texas Tech is their offense.  They rank 28th by my points per possession adjusted for schedule, the only Final Four team outside the top 10.

Auburn, 7.2%

Auburn takes almost half of their shots from 3, and they make 38.3% of these shots.  It could be a winning formula against Virginia, as Tony Bennett’s would rather allow a contested 3 than let a player drive into the paint.

Auburn will miss Chuma Okeke, a 6’8″ forward that makes 39% of his 3 pointers.

With the Sweet 16 set for the 2019 NCAA tournament, these are new win probabilities for the remaining teams.

These numbers are based on my college basketball team rankings that take margin of victory and adjust for strength of schedule.

In addition, I’ve removed the 6 games that Duke’s Zion Williamson missed to get a more accurate assessment of Duke with their superstar.  This adjustment was not made for my pre-tournament win probabilities.

1. Duke, 27.1%
2. Virginia, 22.3%
3. Gonzaga, 12.2%
4. Michigan State, 11.0%
5. North Carolina, 5.8%
6. Michigan, 4.9%
7. Kentucky, 4.8%
8. Tennessee, 3.8%
9. Texas Tech, 3.0%
10. Purdue, 1.6%
11. Auburn, 1.1%
12. Houston, 1.0%
13. Florida State, 0.7%
14. LSU, 0.3%
15. Virginia Tech, 0.3%
16. Oregon, 0.1%

You can play with the round by round probabilities in the interactive visual.