THE POWER RANK

San Francisco at Denver, NFL Week 3

By Leave a Comment

Denver is not off to the best start this season.

Against Seattle in their opener, coach Nathaniel Hackett’s poor clock management made Urban Meyer’s NFL coaching seem competent. Denver followed this loss with a win over lowly Houston, but only by a touchdown.

In addition, QB Russell Wilson has not been stellar. Denver’s pass offense has a success rate of 39.7% compared to an NFL average of 42.6% this season. Wilson’s PFF grade from a clean pocket of 72.4 is 16th among NFL starters.

San Francisco might have lost QB Trey Lance, but their Super Bowl odds increased slightly with the return to veteran Jimmy Garoppolo. 

However, I think Denver has to rate at least as well as San Francisco at this point. This is mostly based on the pass offense.

Russell Wilson dominated the off-season headlines with his trade to Denver for a reason. To complement his talents, he has the services of two talented young receivers:

  • WR Courtland Sutton, who had an excellent 2.08 yards per route run in 2019 (1.52 NFL average) despite getting the ball from Joe Flacco and Drew Lock.
  • WR Jerry Jeudy, who had a promising 1.67 yards per route run as a rookie in 2020. He’s dealing with a rib injury this week.

In contrast, San Francisco drafted Trey Lance with the 3rd overall pick and started him this season because of the ceiling for Garoppolo. While the veteran might give the Niners a better chance to win now, I think the bump should be small.

San Francisco should have the edge on defense. They added steady CB Charvarius Ward from Kansas City this off-season. This is certainly an upgrade from the charred remains of Josh Norman they put on the field last season due to injury.

Denver also has a solid defense, but second year CB Patrick Surtain II has not practiced this week due to injury. Edge rusher Bradley Chubb has six pressures through two games, and he might return to his former production after an injury plagued 2021.

However, it’s difficult to predict defense. I’m more comfortable leaning on my expectations of pass offense at this point in the season.

My numbers like Denver by 2.1 points. This prediction essentially says these two teams are equal, and Denver’s advantage comes from playing at home against a non-division opponent.

However, the markets have San Francisco -1.5 as of Thursday. Perhaps Wilson isn’t the same player, or that Garoppolo should be at least a 3 point adjustment over Lance. I don’t buy either argument, and I find value in Denver +1.5 at home.

Football betting with a PhD edge

This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter at 7pm Eastern on Thursday, September 22, 2022. This newsletter is a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

The predictions are based on my PhD research from Stanford, and the content covers college football and the NFL.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”








 

 
 

7-Nugget Saturday, September 24, 2022

By Leave a Comment

Your weekly dose of sports betting tips and news, each Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Buffalo at Miami, NFL Week 3 – Rob Pizzola of The Hammer can’t ignore the injuries to Buffalo’s defense. Key members of the secondary in S Micah Hyde and CB Dane Jackson will not play.

Rookie CB Christian Benford and Kaiir Elam have seen the field plenty this season due to an injury to Tre’Davious White, and they will get even more snaps this week. This must have an impact against a speedy group of Dolphins receivers.

In addition, DT Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips will also miss this game. Buffalo’s offense should score points as they usually do, and this all suggests value on the over. As of Saturday morning, FanDuel has 52.5, -115 on the over.

Rob and company do great work over at The Hammer, a new sports betting media company.

Surprising college football prediction – When I asked professional bettor Eddie Walls to make a prediction, he said he doubted whether Notre Dame would make a bowl. Even though I had the Fighting Irish were overrated at 5th in the preseason AP poll, this prediction really surprised me.

Eddie argued that Notre Dame has a great defense but almost nothing on offense. The schedule also looks tougher as a team like Syracuse no longer seems like an easy win.

Eddie brings an intimidating amount of college football knowledge to any conversation, and you can catch all of his insights on this week’s episode of The Football Analytics Show.

Injuries – Unless otherwise noted, this information is from USA Today for college football and ESPN for the NFL.

  • Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert sat out practice on Friday and is questionable against Jacksonville.
  • New Orleans QB Jameis Winston is again listed as questionable against Carolina, but he did play the entire game against Tampa Bay last week.
  • San Francisco QB Trey Lance was placed on injured reserve because of an ankle injury. Jimmy Garoppolo will start for the Niners.
  • Dallas QB Dak Prescott returned to practice on Thursday but will not play against the New York Giants on Monday night.
  • Auburn QB TJ Finley has a shoulder injury and will not play against Missouri. Robby Ashford will start, but he might have started anyway as Finley got benched against Penn State last week and Zach Calzada is also injured.
  • Florida State QB Jordan Travis has a leg injury and is questionable against Boston College.
  • Northern Illinois QB Rocky Lombardi has a knee injury and is questionable at Kentucky.
  • Purdue QB Aiden O’Connell has an unspecified injury and is a game time decision against Florida Atlantic.

James Madison at Appalachian State – Parker Fleming notes that James Madison QB Todd Centeio has been excellent this season. The transfer from Colorado State has completed 66% of his passes despite often throwing the ball deep (11.5 average depth of target).

James Madison should be able to throw the ball against an Appalachian State pass defense that has struggled this season. Parker’s numbers predict Appalachian State to win by 5.3 points, and he sees value in betting James Madison +7 in this game.

Parker puts together three college football shows per week for The Hammer that I highly recommend.

World soccer/football predictions – These predictions come from my world football/soccer rankings that take game results in international matches and adjust for opponent.

  • United States vs Saudi Arabia – United States has a 55.0% chance to win. Saudi Arabia has a 17.3% chance to win. There is a 27.6% chance for a tie. The USMNT looked awful against Japan on Friday in a 2-0 loss. The competition gets easier against Saudi Arabia in Spain on Tuesday.
  • England hosting Germany – England has a 55.6% chance to win. Germany has a 21.3% chance to win. There is a 23.1% chance for a tie. Both of these teams are coming off unexpected 1-0 losses, as England fell at Italy and Germany to Hungary.
  • Portugal hosting Spain – Portugal has a 44.9% chance to win. Spain has a 30.1% chance to win. There is a 25.0% chance for a tie. This match on Tuesday should be excellent as Spain and Portugal rank 5th and 7th respectively in my world soccer/football rankings.

For more predictions over this international weekend, click here. I’ll have lots more predictions before the World Cup starts on November 20.

NFL play by play data – You want to dig into the NFL play by play data, but you don’t want to scrape the data yourself. That nflfastR package exists, but it’s really annoying to get started with R as a Python coder.

Dr. Ben Baldwin, author and maintainer of nflfastR, has you covered. The most recent NFL play by play is available in a csv file the morning after games. Now you can data science to your heart’s content without actually having to scrape a thing.

Chad Powers – Eli Manning wanted to know more about the walk on experience, so he made a visit to Penn State. With the help of a make up team, he became Chad Powers.

In the end, he didn’t end up making the team for two reasons. “Think fast, run fast.” But this clip from the tryout is pure hilarity.

You can catch the entire Chad Powers episode of Eli’s Places on YouTube.

Football betting with a PhD edge

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Dr. Ed Feng has bet based on the analytics he developed from his Stanford PhD.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”








 

 
 

World football/soccer predictions for September 22-27, 2022

By Leave a Comment

These predictions come from my world soccer/football rankings that take the score in games and adjust for strength of schedule.

United States

These are two neutral site games in Europe.

United States vs Japan – United States has a 39.1% chance to win. Japan has a 32.8% chance to win. There is a 28.1% chance for a tie.

United States vs Saudi Arabia – United States has a 55.0% chance to win. Saudi Arabia has a 17.3% chance to win. There is a 27.6% chance for a tie.

Mexico

These games are in California, but I consider them home games for El Tri.

Mexico hosting Peru – Mexico has a 46.6% chance to win. Peru has a 26.7% chance to win. There is a 26.7% chance for a tie.

Mexico hosting Colombia – Mexico has a 35.3% chance to win. Colombia has a 33.1% chance to win. There is a 31.5% chance for a tie.

UEFA Nations League

Croatia hosting Denmark – Croatia has a 39.1% chance to win. Denmark has a 34.5% chance to win. There is a 26.4% chance for a tie.

Belgium hosting Wales – Belgium has a 72.8% chance to win. Wales has a 9.9% chance to win. There is a 17.4% chance for a tie.

Italy hosting England – Italy has a 44.0% chance to win. England has a 24.7% chance to win. There is a 31.2% chance for a tie. The markets will be stronger on England than my numbers.

Spain hosting Switzerland – Spain has a 58.3% chance to win. Switzerland has a 19.2% chance to win. There is a 22.5% chance for a tie.

Poland hosting Netherlands – Poland has a 29.8% chance to win. Netherlands has a 46.0% chance to win. There is a 24.2% chance for a tie.

Wales hosting Poland – Wales has a 45.7% chance to win. Poland has a 27.4% chance to win. There is a 26.8% chance for a tie.

Denmark hosting France – Denmark has a 37.3% chance to win. France has a 34.6% chance to win. There is a 28.1% chance for a tie.

Netherlands hosting Belgium – Netherlands has a 39.3% chance to win. Belgium has a 38.2% chance to win. There is a 22.5% chance for a tie.

England hosting Germany – England has a 55.6% chance to win. Germany has a 21.3% chance to win. There is a 23.1% chance for a tie.

Portugal hosting Spain – Portugal has a 44.9% chance to win. Spain has a 30.1% chance to win. There is a 25.0% chance for a tie.

Ukraine vs Scotland – Ukraine has a 47.7% chance to win. Scotland has a 25.4% chance to win. There is a 26.9% chance for a tie. Neutral site game in Poland because, you know, war.

Football betting with a PhD edge

I started The Power Rank over a decade ago based on the mathematics from my Stanford PhD. The strength of schedule adjustments are just as useful in college football and the NFL as international football/soccer.

In my free email newsletter, I send football betting information that is:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

While the primary focus is the NFL and college football, I will also send out parts of my 2022 World Cup predictions.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”








 

 
 

Podcast: Eddie Walls on betting college football in 2022

By Leave a Comment

Eddie Walls, a professional sports bettor who also works for Right Angle Sports, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include:

  • His intense process for making college football bets (8:20)
  • The relative importance of position groups (11:47)
  • Key resources that Eddie uses (15:55)
  • Making adjustments on teams during the season (21:10)
  • A week 4 college football bet (28:50)
  • Michigan, Ohio State, Alabama, Texas (30:00)
  • Tennessee, Auburn and betting the SEC (34:45)
  • A surprising prediction for the 2022 college football season (41:22)
  • The milk shake story (45:06)

Eddie’s vast knowledge of college football was very clear, and it made for an excellent conversation. To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

This episode of The Football Analytics Show is also available on:

Support the podcast on Patreon.