Iowa started the season a red hot 6-0. However, the underlying metrics tell a different story for the Hawkeyes.

Iowa had a worse success rate than Iowa State, Kent State and Maryland in wins. They beat Iowa State by 10 points with the help of a +4 turnover margin. Despite this turnover margin, Iowa State had more yards and a higher yards per play. Similarly, the 37 point margin of victory over Maryland was in large part due to a +7 turnover margin.

Iowa almost had a worse success rate than Colorado State and Penn State. In the latter game, Penn State QB Sean Clifford got injured in the first half and never returned. The back up QB had 34 passing yards, 23 if you subtract yards lost on sacks.

Maybe Penn State needs to trade for Joe Flacco as insurance at QB like the Jets did this week.

Iowa has been overrated all season, and the problem is the offense. They rank 109th in my adjusted success rate, a bottom 25 FBS unit. While QB Spencer Petras had a strong second half against Penn State in leading a comeback win, he has been poor overall this season.

Wisconsin has had a 4-3 season, but my numbers still like this team. They had a chance to beat Penn State in the opener. They got throttled by Notre Dame because of four interceptions, but they had more yards in that game.

QB Graham Mertz has struggled this season, but Wisconsin still has a better offense than Iowa. The Badgers rank 54th in my adjusted success rate.

The rush attack has improved the past three games, and now the Badgers rank 34th in my adjusted rushing success rate. The passing game is not as good at 84th in my numbers.

My model likes Wisconsin by 6.3 points. As much as Wisconsin has struggled, the adjusted metrics from this season only (points, success rate, yards per play) predict a 7.6 point Wisconsin win.

There are a few reasons to stay away from this game. First, you might not believe in Mertz. I understand.

Second, this game does feature two excellent defenses (Wisconsin 2nd, Iowa 8th by my adjusted success rate). My model predicts a score of Wisconsin 19.8 to Iowa 13.5. A low scoring game means it’s harder for Wisconsin to cover a larger point spread like 4 or 5.

Iowa got stomped by Purdue in their last game, and I thought the market might adjust. However, the numbers imply value in Wisconsin -3.

Football betting with a PhD edge

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For years, I used yards per play as my primary metric for college football. This metric captures the efficiency of how an offense moves the ball, and how a defense prevents this movement.

Then, Bill Connelly published an article that changed how I view football metrics.

To understand Connelly’s results, think about breaking down yards per play into two components. First, an offense needs to have some basic success on a play based on down and distance. For an offense, a play is a success if it gets the following fraction of the necessary yards for the next first down:

• 50% on 1st down
• 70% on 2nd down
• 100% on 3rd, 4th down

Success on a play brings a certain efficiency in terms of yards per play. However, an offense can help itself with explosiveness on successful plays. To make things easy, think of this explosiveness in terms of yards per play on successful plays.

Connelly showed that success rate is predictive. On offense and defense, success rate during an early part of the season has a strong correlation with success rate later in the season.

In contrast, Connelly found that explosiveness had zero correlation from early to late season. There is a huge random element in big plays. I’ve found the same in the NFL: yards per pass attempt on successful plays has little predictive power within the same season.

While I still track yards per play in college football, I rely on success rate (with opponent adjustments based on my PhD research) to evaluate offense and defense. Here are some surprising units after 7 weeks of the 2021 season.

Michigan State pass offense – The Spartans had over 12 yards per pass attempt against Rutgers. However, they benefitted from three touchdown receptions of over 60 yards to Jalen Nailor. The Spartans had a 40.7% pass success rate for the game compared to the 39.7% college football average.

Overall, Michigan State’s pass offense ranks 89th in my adjusted success rate, a significant departure from their 18th in adjusted yards per pass attempt.

Alabama defense – The Crimson Tide couldn’t hold Texas A&M’s back up QB from driving for a game winning field goal. And while they dominated Mississippi State on the scoreboard, they allowed a 40.5% success rate compared to the 40.8% college football average.

Doubting a Nick Saban defense might be dumber than deep frying a frozen turkey. However, Alabama’s defense ranks 29th in my adjusted success rate.

Ohio State defense – Through the first three games of the season, the Buckeye defense looked horrible. The seat under DC Terry Coombs grew warmer with every game.

However, Ohio State’s defense has surged the last three games, and they rank 24th in my adjusted success rate for the season. They are better against the rush (13th) than pass (59th).

Clemson offense – A perennial power like Clemson usually just reloads on offense. However, the Tigers offense ranks 71st in my adjusted success rate and even worse by yards per play (109th).

The obvious culprit is QB DJ Uiagalelei, tasked with the impossible chore of replacing Trevor Lawrence. However, Bob Stoll suggested on my podcast that the skill players might have a bigger role in this decline.

Western Kentucky offense – The Hilltoppers came into the season with many question marks, as they brought in transfer QB Bailey Zappe from FCS Houston Baptist. However, they have been essentially unstoppable and rank 1st in my adjusted success rate. They scored 31 points against Indiana and Michigan State.

Regression looms for this Conference USA offense. But with an awful defense ranked 125th in my adjusted success rate, Western Kentucky looks like an over team.

Football betting with a PhD edge

This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter, a free service that strives to be:

• Valuable
• Concise
• Entertaining

The predictions and analytics are based on my PhD research from Stanford, and the content covers college football and the NFL.

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