To check out win, loss, tie probabilities for the 2017 Confederation’s Cup, click here.
These rankings, which are updated daily, consider margin of victory when adjusting for strength of schedule in international soccer / football.
The rankings use a 4 year window of matches and weight matches by their importance, e.g. a World Cup match has 4 times the weight of a friendly.
The predictions based on these rankings performed well in an academic study of world football/soccer rankings.
| Rk | Team | Rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brazil | 2.37 | 46-8-11 |
| 2 | Germany | 2.33 | 40-9-12 |
| 3 | Argentina | 2.02 | 37-8-15 |
| 4 | Chile | 2.00 | 35-17-16 |
| 5 | France | 2.00 | 37-13-9 |
| 6 | Netherlands | 1.82 | 28-14-12 |
| 7 | Belgium | 1.80 | 34-8-9 |
| 8 | Colombia | 1.78 | 32-12-13 |
| 9 | Spain | 1.74 | 36-11-8 |
| 10 | England | 1.72 | 29-9-14 |
| 11 | Portugal | 1.68 | 37-11-10 |
| 12 | Italy | 1.61 | 28-10-21 |
| 13 | Uruguay | 1.60 | 30-19-9 |
| 14 | United States | 1.42 | 52-20-17 |
| 15 | Croatia | 1.42 | 27-11-11 |
| 16 | Ecuador | 1.40 | 20-20-14 |
| 17 | Poland | 1.33 | 22-8-14 |
| 18 | Ukraine | 1.32 | 26-9-8 |
| 19 | Mexico | 1.31 | 49-19-26 |
| 20 | Serbia | 1.23 | 18-13-9 |
| 21 | Sweden | 1.21 | 24-15-12 |
| 22 | Switzerland | 1.20 | 27-10-9 |
| 23 | Peru | 1.20 | 22-19-11 |
| 24 | Republic of Ireland | 1.17 | 18-14-18 |
| 25 | Costa Rica | 1.16 | 35-18-23 |
| 26 | Wales | 1.12 | 15-10-12 |
| 27 | Iceland | 1.11 | 22-18-11 |
| 28 | Slovakia | 1.10 | 22-10-11 |
| 29 | Turkey | 1.06 | 25-11-11 |
| 30 | Austria | 1.06 | 17-12-10 |
| 31 | Russia | 1.01 | 22-15-12 |
| 32 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 0.99 | 23-12-7 |
| 33 | Denmark | 0.99 | 19-14-12 |
| 34 | Algeria | 0.96 | 28-13-10 |
| 35 | Ghana | 0.93 | 33-21-19 |
| 36 | Paraguay | 0.91 | 9-22-14 |
| 37 | Ivory Coast | 0.90 | 29-17-22 |
| 38 | Czech Republic | 0.84 | 18-14-11 |
| 39 | Senegal | 0.84 | 27-9-16 |
| 40 | Scotland | 0.83 | 14-12-8 |
| 41 | Australia | 0.82 | 22-19-13 |
| 42 | Iran | 0.81 | 32-6-11 |
| 43 | Japan | 0.79 | 35-14-11 |
| 44 | Egypt | 0.79 | 28-14-6 |
| 45 | Nigeria | 0.79 | 32-16-21 |
| 46 | Romania | 0.78 | 16-10-16 |
| 47 | Greece | 0.73 | 16-14-14 |
| 48 | Slovenia | 0.73 | 14-18-7 |
| 49 | Northern Ireland | 0.71 | 16-14-10 |
| 50 | Cameroon | 0.64 | 30-16-25 |
| 51 | South Africa | 0.62 | 35-12-30 |
| 52 | Panama | 0.61 | 24-24-27 |
| 53 | Morocco | 0.60 | 27-13-19 |
| 54 | South Korea | 0.60 | 33-20-8 |
| 55 | Venezuela | 0.60 | 11-23-13 |
| 56 | Albania | 0.56 | 14-17-8 |
| 57 | Congo DR | 0.52 | 28-18-19 |
| 58 | Hungary | 0.44 | 15-13-14 |
| 59 | Burkina Faso | 0.42 | 25-22-21 |
| 60 | Israel | 0.42 | 11-14-6 |
| 61 | Tunisia | 0.42 | 22-16-20 |
| 62 | Mali | 0.35 | 23-19-21 |
| 63 | Montenegro | 0.35 | 8-14-8 |
| 64 | Guinea | 0.34 | 20-13-16 |
| 65 | Bulgaria | 0.34 | 13-15-4 |
| 66 | Honduras | 0.29 | 26-34-21 |
| 67 | Finland | 0.28 | 9-20-11 |
| 68 | Armenia | 0.24 | 9-20-5 |
| 69 | Bolivia | 0.23 | 8-24-9 |
| 70 | Belarus | 0.23 | 15-17-12 |
| 71 | Uganda | 0.22 | 31-19-17 |
| 72 | Jamaica | 0.21 | 18-29-11 |
| 73 | Uzbekistan | 0.20 | 29-16-9 |
| 74 | Zambia | 0.20 | 28-19-35 |
| 75 | United Arab Emirates | 0.19 | 34-14-12 |
| 76 | Saudi Arabia | 0.17 | 24-14-8 |
| 77 | Norway | 0.17 | 13-23-10 |
| 78 | Georgia | 0.16 | 7-22-7 |
| 79 | Cape Verde Islands | 0.10 | 13-9-8 |
| 80 | Qatar | 0.06 | 38-21-14 |
| 81 | Zimbabwe | 0.06 | 26-16-20 |
| 82 | Canada | 0.06 | 11-20-16 |
| 83 | Gabon | 0.02 | 15-20-23 |
| 84 | FYR Macedonia | 0.02 | 9-25-4 |
| 85 | China | 0.01 | 20-14-17 |
| 86 | Congo | -0.05 | 15-19-10 |
| 87 | Libya | -0.11 | 13-15-12 |
| 88 | Trinidad and Tobago | -0.12 | 17-24-14 |
| 89 | Equatorial Guinea | -0.15 | 6-10-7 |
| 90 | Haiti | -0.16 | 12-20-5 |
| 91 | Jordan | -0.17 | 27-21-20 |
| 92 | Kenya | -0.18 | 18-11-17 |
| 93 | Lithuania | -0.18 | 8-19-9 |
| 94 | Iraq | -0.21 | 22-26-15 |
| 95 | Togo | -0.23 | 11-17-10 |
| 96 | Benin | -0.24 | 9-9-9 |
| 97 | Cyprus | -0.24 | 7-20-4 |
| 98 | Kazakhstan | -0.24 | 9-19-10 |
| 99 | Azerbaijan | -0.26 | 9-16-13 |
| 100 | Mauritania | -0.27 | 15-19-9 |
| 101 | Moldova | -0.28 | 7-25-12 |
| 102 | Rwanda | -0.29 | 16-22-10 |
| 103 | El Salvador | -0.31 | 11-28-14 |
| 104 | Estonia | -0.33 | 18-22-11 |
| 105 | Oman | -0.34 | 23-18-16 |
| 106 | Latvia | -0.36 | 6-20-13 |
| 107 | Angola | -0.37 | 11-21-19 |
| 108 | Syria | -0.38 | 17-14-9 |
| 109 | Kuwait | -0.40 | 17-14-13 |
| 110 | Sierra Leone | -0.42 | 7-12-6 |
| 111 | Namibia | -0.46 | 16-17-12 |
| 112 | Mozambique | -0.47 | 17-22-16 |
| 113 | Burundi | -0.47 | 11-11-13 |
| 114 | Madagascar | -0.49 | 14-7-10 |
| 115 | Tanzania | -0.52 | 13-21-20 |
| 116 | Liberia | -0.54 | 8-10-3 |
| 117 | Malawi | -0.54 | 15-21-13 |
| 118 | Guatemala | -0.55 | 11-19-11 |
| 119 | Botswana | -0.57 | 16-27-11 |
| 120 | Luxembourg | -0.57 | 5-24-8 |
| 121 | Nicaragua | -0.61 | 11-20-6 |
| 122 | Ethiopia | -0.62 | 16-25-11 |
| 123 | Comoros | -0.63 | 4-11-8 |
| 124 | Bahrain | -0.71 | 19-15-19 |
| 125 | Swaziland | -0.74 | 10-18-13 |
| 126 | Niger | -0.76 | 8-20-13 |
| 127 | North Korea | -0.76 | 13-11-9 |
| 128 | Faroe Islands | -0.77 | 4-19-3 |
| 129 | Malta | -0.80 | 4-28-5 |
| 130 | Lebanon | -0.80 | 11-15-20 |
| 131 | Guinea-Bissau | -0.80 | 5-11-6 |
| 132 | Lesotho | -0.83 | 11-25-18 |
| 133 | Thailand | -0.87 | 23-20-8 |
| 134 | New Zealand | -0.88 | 11-13-7 |
| 135 | Sudan | -0.90 | 7-23-9 |
| 136 | Chad | -0.98 | 4-7-1 |
| 137 | Gambia | -1.00 | 4-10-6 |
| 138 | Palestine | -1.00 | 16-11-10 |
| 139 | Curacao | -1.05 | 9-6-6 |
| 140 | Liechtenstein | -1.18 | 2-26-5 |
| 141 | Indonesia | -1.26 | 12-14-9 |
| 142 | Belize | -1.27 | 3-16-7 |
| 143 | Vietnam | -1.27 | 16-11-9 |
| 144 | Philippines | -1.32 | 22-18-8 |
| 145 | Turkmenistan | -1.34 | 7-11-1 |
| 146 | St. Kitts and Nevis | -1.36 | 12-6-4 |
| 147 | Central African Republic | -1.37 | 3-10-3 |
| 148 | Kyrgyzstan | -1.37 | 11-13-8 |
| 149 | Hong Kong | -1.39 | 15-15-9 |
| 150 | Andorra | -1.47 | 2-27-3 |
| 151 | Mauritius | -1.51 | 6-20-8 |
| 152 | Antigua and Barbuda | -1.56 | 12-7-2 |
| 153 | Suriname | -1.65 | 6-6-1 |
| 154 | Cuba | -1.66 | 5-15-3 |
| 155 | Montserrat | -1.70 | 1-1-1 |
| 156 | Barbados | -1.83 | 7-8-4 |
| 157 | Bermuda | -1.84 | 4-4-3 |
| 158 | Singapore | -1.87 | 17-27-6 |
| 159 | Yemen | -1.88 | 6-23-8 |
| 160 | Tajikistan | -1.93 | 11-12-6 |
| 161 | Sao Tome and Principe | -1.94 | 2-11-0 |
| 162 | Seychelles | -2.01 | 4-20-3 |
| 163 | Dominican Republic | -2.02 | 6-9-1 |
| 164 | India | -2.05 | 17-13-5 |
| 165 | Myanmar | -2.09 | 14-21-9 |
| 166 | New Caledonia | -2.11 | 5-5-4 |
| 167 | Guyana | -2.12 | 6-6-4 |
| 168 | South Sudan | -2.12 | 6-14-4 |
| 169 | St. Lucia | -2.15 | 8-9-4 |
| 170 | Puerto Rico | -2.19 | 3-8-5 |
| 171 | Malaysia | -2.22 | 13-23-13 |
| 172 | Afghanistan | -2.23 | 18-14-9 |
| 173 | Grenada | -2.25 | 7-12-7 |
| 174 | Cayman Islands | -2.28 | 0-1-2 |
| 175 | Guam | -2.35 | 6-14-6 |
| 176 | Papua New Guinea | -2.50 | 5-7-3 |
| 177 | St. Vincent / Grenadines | -2.55 | 11-15-6 |
| 178 | Eritrea | -2.59 | 0-5-0 |
| 179 | Maldives | -2.61 | 12-19-5 |
| 180 | Solomon Islands | -2.76 | 5-10-1 |
| 181 | Gibraltar | -2.79 | 0-7-0 |
| 182 | Fiji | -2.83 | 4-6-4 |
| 183 | Pakistan | -2.84 | 6-8-3 |
| 184 | Tahiti | -2.85 | 4-6-2 |
| 185 | Dominica | -2.90 | 4-11-7 |
| 186 | Chinese Taipei | -2.95 | 10-19-4 |
| 187 | San Marino | -2.98 | 0-27-1 |
| 188 | Cambodia | -3.03 | 13-29-4 |
| 189 | Aruba | -3.05 | 4-7-1 |
| 190 | Nepal | -3.13 | 5-14-9 |
| 191 | Vanuatu | -3.35 | 3-2-1 |
| 192 | Somalia | -3.37 | 0-10-0 |
| 193 | Netherlands Antilles | -3.47 | 1-1-0 |
| 194 | US Virgin Islands | -3.64 | 1-6-0 |
| 195 | Laos | -3.64 | 9-23-9 |
| 196 | Bangladesh | -3.68 | 6-18-8 |
| 197 | Macau | -3.68 | 3-9-6 |
| 198 | Djibouti | -4.06 | 1-15-0 |
| 199 | Timor-Leste | -4.14 | 2-16-4 |
| 200 | Brunei Darussalum | -4.32 | 2-9-1 |
| 201 | Sri Lanka | -4.42 | 3-15-2 |
| 202 | Turks and Caicos Islands | -4.87 | 1-3-0 |
| 203 | American Samoa | -4.87 | 2-2-0 |
| 204 | Mongolia | -4.91 | 1-9-1 |
| 205 | Bhutan | -5.05 | 3-17-1 |
| 206 | British Virgin Islands | -5.09 | 0-6-1 |
| 207 | Cook Islands | -5.23 | 2-1-0 |
| 208 | Anguilla | -5.57 | 0-7-0 |
| 209 | Samoa | -5.77 | 2-4-0 |
| 210 | Bahamas | -5.84 | 0-2-0 |
| 211 | Tonga | -6.92 | 0-4-0 |
