To check out win, loss, tie probabilities for the 2017 Confederation’s Cup, click here.
These rankings, which are updated daily, consider margin of victory when adjusting for strength of schedule in international soccer / football.
The rankings use a 4 year window of matches and weight matches by their importance, e.g. a World Cup match has 4 times the weight of a friendly.
The predictions based on these rankings performed well in an academic study of world football/soccer rankings.
| Rk | Team | Rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brazil | 2.37 | 47-8-12 |
| 2 | Germany | 2.31 | 42-9-12 |
| 3 | France | 2.03 | 38-13-10 |
| 4 | Argentina | 1.98 | 37-8-17 |
| 5 | Chile | 1.91 | 35-19-16 |
| 6 | Spain | 1.82 | 38-11-8 |
| 7 | Belgium | 1.78 | 36-8-9 |
| 8 | Colombia | 1.77 | 32-12-15 |
| 9 | England | 1.73 | 31-9-14 |
| 10 | Netherlands | 1.70 | 29-15-12 |
| 11 | Portugal | 1.67 | 39-11-10 |
| 12 | Uruguay | 1.61 | 31-19-10 |
| 13 | Italy | 1.51 | 29-11-21 |
| 14 | United States | 1.37 | 52-21-18 |
| 15 | Croatia | 1.35 | 27-12-11 |
| 16 | Ecuador | 1.34 | 20-22-14 |
| 17 | Mexico | 1.30 | 50-19-27 |
| 18 | Ukraine | 1.29 | 27-10-8 |
| 19 | Serbia | 1.27 | 20-13-9 |
| 20 | Peru | 1.23 | 24-19-11 |
| 21 | Poland | 1.21 | 23-9-14 |
| 22 | Switzerland | 1.20 | 29-10-9 |
| 23 | Sweden | 1.20 | 25-16-12 |
| 24 | Denmark | 1.19 | 21-14-12 |
| 25 | Costa Rica | 1.18 | 36-18-24 |
| 26 | Wales | 1.16 | 17-10-12 |
| 27 | Iceland | 1.09 | 23-19-11 |
| 28 | Republic of Ireland | 1.08 | 18-15-19 |
| 29 | Slovakia | 1.08 | 23-11-11 |
| 30 | Paraguay | 1.01 | 10-23-14 |
| 31 | Turkey | 1.00 | 26-12-11 |
| 32 | Russia | 0.99 | 22-15-12 |
| 33 | Austria | 0.97 | 17-13-11 |
| 34 | Ghana | 0.93 | 34-22-20 |
| 35 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 0.90 | 24-13-7 |
| 36 | Ivory Coast | 0.88 | 31-18-22 |
| 37 | Scotland | 0.86 | 16-12-8 |
| 38 | Algeria | 0.85 | 28-15-10 |
| 39 | Nigeria | 0.83 | 34-16-22 |
| 40 | Japan | 0.80 | 36-15-11 |
| 41 | Iran | 0.77 | 32-6-13 |
| 42 | Egypt | 0.77 | 29-15-6 |
| 43 | Romania | 0.77 | 17-11-16 |
| 44 | Senegal | 0.76 | 27-10-18 |
| 45 | Slovenia | 0.75 | 15-19-7 |
| 46 | Northern Ireland | 0.75 | 18-14-10 |
| 47 | Australia | 0.74 | 23-20-13 |
| 48 | Czech Republic | 0.73 | 18-16-11 |
| 49 | Morocco | 0.69 | 28-13-20 |
| 50 | Venezuela | 0.69 | 11-23-15 |
| 51 | Greece | 0.69 | 16-15-15 |
| 52 | Panama | 0.63 | 25-25-27 |
| 53 | South Korea | 0.59 | 33-20-10 |
| 54 | Cameroon | 0.56 | 31-17-26 |
| 55 | Albania | 0.56 | 15-17-9 |
| 56 | South Africa | 0.53 | 35-15-30 |
| 57 | Congo DR | 0.48 | 28-19-21 |
| 58 | Burkina Faso | 0.45 | 26-22-23 |
| 59 | Hungary | 0.44 | 16-14-14 |
| 60 | Tunisia | 0.43 | 23-16-21 |
| 61 | Montenegro | 0.43 | 10-14-8 |
| 62 | Guinea | 0.38 | 22-14-16 |
| 63 | Israel | 0.38 | 11-16-6 |
| 64 | Bulgaria | 0.36 | 14-16-4 |
| 65 | Finland | 0.35 | 10-20-11 |
| 66 | Zambia | 0.35 | 31-19-35 |
| 67 | Honduras | 0.31 | 27-34-22 |
| 68 | Bolivia | 0.30 | 9-25-9 |
| 69 | Cape Verde Islands | 0.25 | 15-9-8 |
| 70 | Mali | 0.24 | 23-21-22 |
| 71 | Saudi Arabia | 0.23 | 25-15-8 |
| 72 | Georgia | 0.23 | 7-22-9 |
| 73 | Uganda | 0.22 | 32-21-17 |
| 74 | Jamaica | 0.20 | 18-29-11 |
| 75 | Uzbekistan | 0.18 | 29-17-10 |
| 76 | United Arab Emirates | 0.18 | 35-15-12 |
| 77 | Belarus | 0.15 | 15-19-12 |
| 78 | Armenia | 0.13 | 9-22-5 |
| 79 | Norway | 0.10 | 14-24-10 |
| 80 | FYR Macedonia | 0.09 | 10-25-5 |
| 81 | China | 0.07 | 22-14-17 |
| 82 | Zimbabwe | 0.06 | 26-16-20 |
| 83 | Canada | 0.04 | 11-20-16 |
| 84 | Gabon | 0.01 | 16-21-23 |
| 85 | Qatar | -0.02 | 39-23-14 |
| 86 | Libya | -0.05 | 14-16-12 |
| 87 | Congo | -0.10 | 15-20-12 |
| 88 | Kenya | -0.17 | 18-11-18 |
| 89 | Jordan | -0.17 | 28-21-21 |
| 90 | Equatorial Guinea | -0.17 | 6-10-7 |
| 91 | Iraq | -0.18 | 24-26-15 |
| 92 | Cyprus | -0.18 | 8-21-4 |
| 93 | Haiti | -0.18 | 12-20-5 |
| 94 | Trinidad and Tobago | -0.20 | 17-26-14 |
| 95 | Syria | -0.22 | 19-14-10 |
| 96 | Togo | -0.24 | 12-18-10 |
| 97 | Benin | -0.27 | 9-10-9 |
| 98 | Rwanda | -0.27 | 17-22-10 |
| 99 | Estonia | -0.31 | 19-22-12 |
| 100 | Mauritania | -0.32 | 16-20-9 |
| 101 | El Salvador | -0.32 | 11-28-14 |
| 102 | Oman | -0.33 | 25-18-16 |
| 103 | Azerbaijan | -0.33 | 10-17-13 |
| 104 | Luxembourg | -0.33 | 6-24-9 |
| 105 | Moldova | -0.37 | 7-27-12 |
| 106 | Angola | -0.38 | 12-21-19 |
| 107 | Kuwait | -0.41 | 17-14-13 |
| 108 | Namibia | -0.42 | 17-17-12 |
| 109 | Sierra Leone | -0.43 | 7-12-6 |
| 110 | Mozambique | -0.44 | 17-22-17 |
| 111 | Kazakhstan | -0.44 | 9-21-10 |
| 112 | Lithuania | -0.48 | 8-21-9 |
| 113 | Burundi | -0.48 | 11-11-13 |
| 114 | Tanzania | -0.51 | 13-21-20 |
| 115 | Latvia | -0.52 | 6-22-13 |
| 116 | Madagascar | -0.52 | 14-8-10 |
| 117 | Malawi | -0.53 | 16-21-13 |
| 118 | Liberia | -0.55 | 8-10-3 |
| 119 | Guatemala | -0.57 | 11-19-11 |
| 120 | Botswana | -0.59 | 16-27-11 |
| 121 | Nicaragua | -0.62 | 11-20-6 |
| 122 | Ethiopia | -0.64 | 16-26-11 |
| 123 | Comoros | -0.67 | 4-12-8 |
| 124 | Bahrain | -0.71 | 20-15-20 |
| 125 | Niger | -0.74 | 9-22-13 |
| 126 | Swaziland | -0.74 | 10-18-13 |
| 127 | North Korea | -0.77 | 13-11-10 |
| 128 | Lebanon | -0.80 | 11-15-21 |
| 129 | Guinea-Bissau | -0.81 | 5-11-6 |
| 130 | Lesotho | -0.83 | 11-25-18 |
| 131 | Thailand | -0.84 | 23-22-8 |
| 132 | Sudan | -0.86 | 8-23-9 |
| 133 | New Zealand | -0.86 | 12-13-8 |
| 134 | Faroe Islands | -0.86 | 5-20-3 |
| 135 | Malta | -0.93 | 4-30-5 |
| 136 | Chad | -0.98 | 4-7-1 |
| 137 | Palestine | -1.00 | 17-11-10 |
| 138 | Gambia | -1.01 | 4-10-6 |
| 139 | Curacao | -1.08 | 9-6-6 |
| 140 | Vietnam | -1.28 | 17-11-9 |
| 141 | Belize | -1.28 | 3-16-7 |
| 142 | Indonesia | -1.28 | 12-14-10 |
| 143 | Liechtenstein | -1.29 | 2-28-5 |
| 144 | Philippines | -1.35 | 22-18-9 |
| 145 | Turkmenistan | -1.36 | 7-12-2 |
| 146 | St. Kitts and Nevis | -1.39 | 12-6-6 |
| 147 | Kyrgyzstan | -1.40 | 11-13-8 |
| 148 | Hong Kong | -1.40 | 15-15-11 |
| 149 | Central African Republic | -1.41 | 3-10-3 |
| 150 | Mauritius | -1.52 | 6-21-9 |
| 151 | Andorra | -1.56 | 2-29-3 |
| 152 | Antigua and Barbuda | -1.58 | 12-7-2 |
| 153 | Cuba | -1.69 | 5-15-3 |
| 154 | Suriname | -1.70 | 6-6-1 |
| 155 | Montserrat | -1.73 | 1-1-1 |
| 156 | Singapore | -1.80 | 17-27-8 |
| 157 | Bermuda | -1.86 | 4-4-3 |
| 158 | Barbados | -1.87 | 7-8-4 |
| 159 | Yemen | -1.87 | 6-23-9 |
| 160 | Sao Tome and Principe | -1.91 | 2-12-0 |
| 161 | Tajikistan | -1.94 | 12-12-6 |
| 162 | India | -1.99 | 19-13-6 |
| 163 | Seychelles | -2.02 | 4-20-3 |
| 164 | Dominican Republic | -2.05 | 6-9-1 |
| 165 | Myanmar | -2.09 | 15-21-9 |
| 166 | New Caledonia | -2.11 | 5-5-4 |
| 167 | South Sudan | -2.15 | 6-14-4 |
| 168 | Guyana | -2.15 | 6-6-4 |
| 169 | Malaysia | -2.19 | 13-25-14 |
| 170 | St. Lucia | -2.19 | 8-9-4 |
| 171 | Puerto Rico | -2.23 | 3-8-5 |
| 172 | Afghanistan | -2.26 | 18-16-9 |
| 173 | Grenada | -2.29 | 7-12-7 |
| 174 | Cayman Islands | -2.29 | 0-1-2 |
| 175 | Guam | -2.35 | 6-14-6 |
| 176 | Papua New Guinea | -2.53 | 5-7-3 |
| 177 | St. Vincent / Grenadines | -2.59 | 11-15-6 |
| 178 | Eritrea | -2.59 | 0-5-0 |
| 179 | Maldives | -2.66 | 12-20-5 |
| 180 | Fiji | -2.76 | 4-6-5 |
| 181 | Pakistan | -2.85 | 6-8-3 |
| 182 | Solomon Islands | -2.87 | 5-11-2 |
| 183 | Tahiti | -2.91 | 4-6-2 |
| 184 | Dominica | -2.93 | 4-11-7 |
| 185 | Chinese Taipei | -2.99 | 10-20-4 |
| 186 | Gibraltar | -3.00 | 0-9-0 |
| 187 | Cambodia | -3.00 | 13-30-4 |
| 188 | Aruba | -3.08 | 4-7-1 |
| 189 | Nepal | -3.11 | 5-15-9 |
| 190 | San Marino | -3.13 | 0-29-1 |
| 191 | Vanuatu | -3.33 | 3-2-1 |
| 192 | Somalia | -3.36 | 0-10-0 |
| 193 | Netherlands Antilles | -3.52 | 1-1-0 |
| 194 | Laos | -3.64 | 9-23-9 |
| 195 | US Virgin Islands | -3.67 | 1-6-0 |
| 196 | Bangladesh | -3.68 | 6-18-8 |
| 197 | Macau | -3.70 | 3-10-6 |
| 198 | Djibouti | -4.07 | 1-15-0 |
| 199 | Timor-Leste | -4.14 | 2-16-4 |
| 200 | Brunei Darussalum | -4.35 | 2-9-1 |
| 201 | Sri Lanka | -4.41 | 3-15-2 |
| 202 | Bhutan | -4.83 | 3-18-1 |
| 203 | American Samoa | -4.85 | 2-2-0 |
| 204 | Turks and Caicos Islands | -4.90 | 1-3-0 |
| 205 | Mongolia | -4.94 | 1-9-1 |
| 206 | British Virgin Islands | -5.12 | 0-6-1 |
| 207 | Cook Islands | -5.21 | 2-1-0 |
| 208 | Anguilla | -5.58 | 0-7-0 |
| 209 | Samoa | -5.76 | 2-4-0 |
| 210 | Bahamas | -5.86 | 0-2-0 |
| 211 | Tonga | -6.90 | 0-4-0 |
