These win total predictions are based on my public college football preseason rankings, a combination of two metrics:
- The Power Rank’s preseason rankings that consider four years of team performance (ratings based on margin of victory adjusted for opponent)
- Two public preseason rankings that I have back tested for accuracy
In the results below, you’ll see:
- A team’s rank in The Power Rank’s preseason college football rankings before the team name.
- A team’s rating, or an expected margin of victory against an average FBS team at a neutral site.
- An expected win total (last on the right).
These predictions were updated on August 25, 2022. These reflect updated college football rankings as well as fix an error in the previous predictions (week 0 games were not included in the win total predictions).
Southeastern
1: Alabama, 29.2 rating, 10.9 wins.
2: Georgia, 27.4 rating, 11.1 wins.
8: Texas A&M, 15.2 rating, 8.1 wins.
12: Auburn, 13.0 rating, 7.1 wins.
14: Mississippi, 12.9 rating, 7.8 wins.
15: LSU, 12.8 rating, 7.3 wins.
17: Kentucky, 12.5 rating, 8.1 wins.
22: Florida, 10.8 rating, 7.2 wins.
23: Mississippi State, 10.8 rating, 6.5 wins.
26: Tennessee, 10.5 rating, 7.1 wins.
27: Arkansas, 10.4 rating, 6.2 wins.
44: South Carolina, 5.4 rating, 5.9 wins.
52: Missouri, 3.4 rating, 5.7 wins.
110: Vanderbilt, -9.6 rating, 2.4 wins.
Big Ten
3: Ohio State, 25.6 rating, 10.7 wins.
7: Michigan, 16.8 rating, 9.6 wins.
13: Penn State, 12.9 rating, 8.2 wins.
18: Wisconsin, 11.6 rating, 8.2 wins.
19: Michigan State, 11.3 rating, 7.9 wins.
29: Iowa, 9.5 rating, 7.3 wins.
32: Minnesota, 8.0 rating, 7.8 wins.
36: Purdue, 7.0 rating, 7.4 wins.
39: Nebraska, 6.6 rating, 7.0 wins.
56: Maryland, 2.3 rating, 5.5 wins.
76: Illinois, -2.1 rating, 4.4 wins.
79: Indiana, -2.9 rating, 3.9 wins.
82: Northwestern, -3.8 rating, 3.9 wins.
85: Rutgers, -4.1 rating, 3.9 wins.
Big 12
5: Oklahoma, 17.2 rating, 9.5 wins.
9: Texas, 13.5 rating, 7.9 wins.
10: Oklahoma State, 13.3 rating, 8.5 wins.
21: Baylor, 11.3 rating, 7.7 wins.
30: Iowa State, 8.9 rating, 7.2 wins.
34: Kansas State, 7.5 rating, 6.7 wins.
43: TCU, 5.5 rating, 6.1 wins.
46: Texas Tech, 5.0 rating, 5.6 wins.
51: West Virginia, 3.5 rating, 5.1 wins.
106: Kansas, -9.0 rating, 2.7 wins.
Atlantic Coast
4: Clemson, 21.2 rating, 10.4 wins.
20: Pittsburgh, 11.3 rating, 9.0 wins.
25: Miami (FL), 10.6 rating, 8.4 wins.
28: North Carolina State, 10.1 rating, 8.4 wins.
33: North Carolina, 7.7 rating, 7.4 wins.
37: Wake Forest, 6.9 rating, 7.7 wins.
42: Florida State, 5.5 rating, 6.2 wins.
45: Louisville, 5.2 rating, 6.0 wins.
57: Virginia, 2.2 rating, 6.9 wins.
61: Syracuse, 1.1 rating, 5.2 wins.
69: Virginia Tech, 0.4 rating, 6.0 wins.
70: Boston College, 0.4 rating, 5.7 wins.
83: Georgia Tech, -3.9 rating, 3.4 wins.
117: Duke, -11.5 rating, 3.3 wins.
Pac-12
11: Utah, 13.3 rating, 9.2 wins.
24: Oregon, 10.7 rating, 8.2 wins.
38: UCLA, 6.7 rating, 8.4 wins.
47: USC, 4.7 rating, 7.1 wins.
48: Arizona State, 4.7 rating, 7.2 wins.
53: Washington, 3.1 rating, 7.1 wins.
58: Oregon State, 1.5 rating, 5.6 wins.
67: Washington State, 0.4 rating, 5.9 wins.
73: California, -1.2 rating, 5.6 wins.
74: Stanford, -1.2 rating, 4.4 wins.
87: Colorado, -4.6 rating, 3.2 wins.
101: Arizona, -7.8 rating, 2.5 wins.
Independents
6: Notre Dame, 17.2 rating, 9.3 wins.
31: Brigham Young, 8.4 rating, 7.8 wins.
60: Army, 1.3 rating, 8.7 wins.
75: Liberty, -1.6 rating, 7.6 wins.
129: Connecticut, -21.9 rating, 2.4 wins.
130: New Mexico State, -23.7 rating, 3.0 wins.
131: Massachusetts, -24.0 rating, 2.2 wins.
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American Athletic Conference
16: Cincinnati, 12.6 rating, 9.9 wins.
35: UCF, 7.1 rating, 8.9 wins.
41: Houston, 5.9 rating, 8.7 wins.
49: SMU, 4.3 rating, 7.4 wins.
59: Memphis, 1.5 rating, 7.4 wins.
77: Tulane, -2.1 rating, 6.0 wins.
80: East Carolina, -3.0 rating, 5.7 wins.
81: Tulsa, -3.4 rating, 5.8 wins.
95: South Florida, -6.8 rating, 4.0 wins.
100: Navy, -7.8 rating, 3.7 wins.
124: Temple, -16.7 rating, 3.3 wins.
Mountain West
40: Boise State, 6.4 rating, 9.1 wins.
54: Fresno State, 2.6 rating, 8.8 wins.
55: Air Force, 2.3 rating, 8.4 wins.
64: San Diego State, 0.8 rating, 7.7 wins.
78: Utah State, -2.3 rating, 6.9 wins.
97: Nevada, -7.0 rating, 5.8 wins.
99: Wyoming, -7.7 rating, 5.2 wins.
104: San Jose State, -8.5 rating, 5.7 wins.
108: Colorado State, -9.3 rating, 4.4 wins.
115: Hawaii, -11.3 rating, 5.4 wins.
120: UNLV, -12.2 rating, 4.0 wins.
126: New Mexico, -18.3 rating, 2.9 wins.
Mid-American
65: Toledo, 0.7 rating, 8.3 wins.
86: Central Michigan, -4.4 rating, 6.9 wins.
88: Miami (OH), -4.8 rating, 6.9 wins.
91: Western Michigan, -6.0 rating, 5.9 wins.
93: Northern Illinois, -6.1 rating, 6.4 wins.
102: Eastern Michigan, -8.0 rating, 6.1 wins.
103: Buffalo, -8.1 rating, 6.3 wins.
105: Ball State, -8.9 rating, 5.8 wins.
113: Kent State, -10.6 rating, 4.9 wins.
116: Ohio, -11.4 rating, 5.1 wins.
123: Bowling Green, -15.6 rating, 3.2 wins.
128: Akron, -19.9 rating, 2.6 wins.
Sun Belt
50: Appalachian State, 4.0 rating, 8.6 wins.
66: Louisiana, 0.6 rating, 8.8 wins.
72: Coastal Carolina, -1.1 rating, 7.7 wins.
84: Georgia State, -4.1 rating, 5.8 wins.
89: Troy, -5.4 rating, 6.0 wins.
94: James Madison, -6.4 rating, 5.5 wins.
111: Georgia Southern, -9.7 rating, 4.4 wins.
112: South Alabama, -10.5 rating, 5.2 wins.
118: Arkansas State, -11.8 rating, 5.3 wins.
121: Texas State, -13.1 rating, 4.7 wins.
125: Louisiana Monroe, -17.0 rating, 2.7 wins.
Conference USA
62: UAB, 1.0 rating, 8.0 wins.
63: Marshall, 0.9 rating, 8.0 wins.
68: UTSA, 0.4 rating, 7.6 wins.
71: Western Kentucky, 0.2 rating, 8.5 wins.
90: North Texas, -5.9 rating, 6.3 wins.
92: Middle Tennessee, -6.0 rating, 6.2 wins.
96: Florida Atlantic, -6.8 rating, 5.9 wins.
98: Louisiana Tech, -7.5 rating, 5.7 wins.
107: Old Dominion, -9.1 rating, 4.2 wins.
109: Southern Miss, -9.5 rating, 5.2 wins.
114: Charlotte, -10.9 rating, 4.7 wins.
119: UTEP, -12.0 rating, 4.9 wins.
122: Rice, -14.0 rating, 3.3 wins.
127: Florida International, -19.0 rating, 3.9 wins.
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