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7-Nugget Saturday, October 15, 2022

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Your weekly does of sports betting tips, news and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Minnesota at Miami, NFL Week 6 – QB Tua Tagovailoa will not play, and Miami is most likely ultra cautious with back up Teddy Bridgewater, as he also has a concussion. While this means rookie Skylar Thompson probably plays, professional bettor Rob Pizzola thinks the market has made too much of an adjustment.

The Dolphins are a blitz heavy team, and Kirk Cousins has fared poorly against the blitz this season (see the Eagles MNF game in Week 2). The Vikings are overvalued after having played the depleted Lions and Saints, and then an awful Bears squad.

Rob likes Miami +3 despite the quarterback situation. Check out all of his amazing content on the Circles Off podcast, part of The Hammer sports betting platform.

Arkansas State at Southern Miss – While these teams have similar records, professional bettor Eddie Walls points out they have played vastly different strengths of schedule.

Arkansas State has 2-4 record, but they have a win over FCS Grambling State and Louisiana Monroe (116th in my member college football rankings). They have lost to 109th ranked Old Dominion.

Southern Miss has a 2-3 record, but they have a win over Tulane (69th) and have faced Miami (44th), Troy (72nd) and Liberty (76th). Eddie sees value in Southern Miss -4.5 at home against Arkansas State.

Follow professional bettor Eddie Walls on Twitter.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis – The Power Rank member numbers have favored the Colts (3.5 points over the Jags) more than the markets. One way to capitalize on these projections is looking at all available markets, not just the primary spread.

Betscope scans all of these markets to find the best price based on the prediction. Interestingly, the alternate line of Colts +4.5 at -227 on Barstool offers great value, a market still available as of Saturday morning.

While it may seem counterintuitive to pay more for this alternative spread, the distribution math that Betscope utilizes identifies fair market prices for all values of alternate spreads and totals. Sometimes, the value in the market is found where these alternate lines aren’t priced right on either side.

In this case, Colts +4.5 crosses several key numbers and should have a much lower payout for a fair market price. Identifying these underrated opportunities with Betscope is key to capitalizing on inefficiencies in the market at large.

Injuries – This NFL information comes from ESPN. With so many QB injuries, college football gets its own list this week below.

  • Dallas QB Dak Prescott is listed as questionable against Philadelphia. Prescott hasn’t played since week 1.
  • Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa is out against Minnesota with a concussion. Back up Teddy Bridgewater might also be out with a concussion.
  • New England QB Mac Jones is questionable with an ankle injury.
  • New Orleans QB Jameis Winston will not start against Cincinnati but may be active.
  • Carolina QB Baker Mayfield is doubtful against the Los Angeles Rams with a shoulder injury.

College football injuries are from USA Today unless otherwise noted.

  • Alabama QB Bryce Young didn’t play last week against Texas A&M with a sprain in his throwing shoulder, but he will play at Tennessee if all goes well pregame.
  • North Carolina State QB Devin Leary is day to day but could also be out six weeks with an upper body injury. Back up Jack Chambers threw one pass in five possessions last week against Florida State, so expect a different game plan.
  • Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson didn’t play last week against Mississippi State but is expected to be active against BYU.
  • Illinois QB Tommy Devito left the game against Iowa last week with an ankle injury and is questionable against Minnesota. Arthur Sitkowski would play in his place.
  • Kansas QB Jalon Daniels is doubtful against Oklahoma because of a shoulder injury.
  • Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel didn’t play against Texas last week due to a head injury and is questionable against Kansas.
  • Kentucky QB Will Levis didn’t play against South Carolina last week because of a hand injury but is probable against Mississippi State.

Denver Broncos pass offense – When new head coach Nathaniel Hackett let the clock run in the final minute of the season opener against Seattle, it made Andy Reid seem like a clock management Einstein.

However, the coaching blunder covered up an important nugget: Denver had their best passing performance all season against Seattle. Russell Wilson and company had a passing success rate of 43.2% (NFL average of 43.0% this season).

Since that game, Denver’s pass offense has not a success rate better than 36%. Overall, the Broncos rank 30th in the NFL in passing success rate. While small sample size is always a consideration, Wilson’s PFF passing grade of 59 suggests signal in these awful numbers.

You can grab all these raw passing success rates on offense and defense on the public part of The Power Rank.

Tennessee Volunteers – It has been hard for Tennessee since they fired national championship winning coach Phil Fulmer in 2008. However, they are off to a 5-0 start and have a unique opportunity against Alabama at home.

It does seem like Alabama QB Bryce Young will play, and the spread has moved to Alabama -8.5 on the road as of Saturday morning. If Tennessee wins as an underdog, they will really need the Fan Training Specialist recommended by SEC Shorts.

Poker cheating scandal – A poker pro loses a hand to a woman. The look on his face when he loses is priceless.

THIS JUST HAPPENED…@RobbiJadeLew vs @GmanPoker in one of the strangest poker hands you've ever seen

Tune in now for SUPER HIGH STAKES $100/200/400: https://t.co/VcpZNMUTi4 pic.twitter.com/iGppl6l9aa

— Hustler Casino Live (@HCLPokerShow) September 30, 2022

But then this poker pro Garrett Adelstein goes nuts and accuses Robbi Jade Lew of cheating. She gives him the money back, even though the cheating accusation makes no sense.

Later, the story takes a new twist as a casino employee stole chips away from Lewis. What a wild story.

Football betting with a PhD edge

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Dr. Ed Feng has bet based on the analytics he developed from his Stanford PhD.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”








 

 
 

Filed Under: 7-Nugget Saturday, The Power Rank Newsletter

7-Nugget Saturday, October 8, 2022

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Your weekly dose of sports betting tips and news, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

How to make accurate predictions – On The Football Analytics Show, professional sports bettor Mike Craig talked about how he works as part of the college football team at Right Angle Sports (RAS). These two statements stood out:

  • Before their second Sunday meeting, everyone comes up with their own plays before the meeting. This independence is critical for making accurate predictions, as James Surowiecki writes in his book The Wisdom of Crowds.
  • The team has 10 people on it, and each has a defined role. This diversity leads to a more manageable work load for team members.

The 13 minutes starting at 5:44 of this episode is a critical listen whether you are part of a sports betting group or running a major corporation.

Mike also likes Wake Forest side against Army, as he doesn’t think the latter can stop QB Sam Hartman and the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest -16.5 is widely available as of Saturday morning.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay – The market has moved in favor of Tampa Bay, as Atlanta TE Kyle Pitts is out with a hamstring injury. Pitts has the second most targets from QB Marcus Mariota this season.

However, professional bettor Rob Pizzola still sees value in Tampa Bay side. The Buccaneers are fully healthy on offense with the exception of WR Julio Jones (a game time decision with a knee injury).

Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay should have their way with an Atlanta defense that has the second worst pass rush grade according to PFF. Rob likes Tampa Bay -10. In addition, the member numbers at The Power Rank have Tampa Bay by 11.8 points.

Check out all the fantastic sports betting content Rob and his team produce at The Hammer.

NFL passing success rate – On The Football Analytics Show, I ask guests for a surprising prediction. Over the past two months, the Jacksonville Jaguars have been the answer on multiple episodes.

Two reasons have been given.

  • They have competence at head coach with Doug Pederson.
  • Second year QB Trevor Lawrence has the talent to thrive with better coaching.

After four games, Jacksonville has a 50.0% passing success rate, 4th best (43.0% NFL average this season). A new page at The Power Rank now shows passing rate numbers for all teams on offense and defense.

Injuries – Unless otherwise noted, this information is from USA Today for college football and ESPN for the NFL. This list starts with college this week as the SEC gets hit with key QB injuries.

  • Alabama QB Bryce Young injured his shoulder in the last game and is questionable at Texas A&M.
  • Texas A&M QB Max Johnson broke his hand and will probably miss the rest of the season. Haynes King probably starts, but he lost the job earlier this season to Johnson.
  • Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson has a head injury. While he will make the trip to Mississippi State, he is questionable to play.
  • Kentucky QB Will Levis, an NFL prospect, seems to have hurt his finger last week. He is questionable to play against South Carolina.
  • Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel left the previous game with a head injury, and he is questionable against Texas.
  • Texas QB Quinn Ewers is expected to play against Oklahoma for the first time since his injury against Alabama.
  • Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa is out with a head injury against the New York Jets. Teddy Bridgewater will start.
  • New England QB Mac Jones is doubtful, and back up Brian Hoyer is on IR with a concussion. If Jones can’t play, the Patriots most likely start rookie Bailey Zappe, who played last week against Green Bay.
  • New Orleans QB Jameis Winston is doubtful against Seattle. Andy Dalton will start for the Saints if Winston can’t go.

Baseball predictions – While the New York Mets lost game 1 of a three game series to San Diego last night, they start Jacob deGrom on the mound today.

My numbers give the Mets a 62.7% chance to beat the Padres in a must win game. However, this estimate might be low. deGrom has not pitched in over a week, and the Mets will be more likely to ride their ace tonight into the late innings.

To check out MLB post season predictions, check out the public predictions page at The Power Rank each night around 10pm Eastern.

The life of a professional bettor – Simon Hunter of The Action Network portrays himself as a professional bettor, but the Circles Off crew had so many questions about his appearance on the Ross Tucker Show.

For example, Hunter claims to limit his services to 100 clients. Why would he do that? And the term client makes his syndicate seem more like a tout service.

This episode of Circles Off with Rob and Johnny will leave you equal parts amused and confused. Rob reached out to Simon, but he declined coming on Circles Off.

Worst NFL game ever? – Russell Wilson and Matt Ryan combined for zero touchdowns and four interceptions in a train wreck of NFL game on Thursday night. At least Ryan had the excuse of pressure in his face all night long.

Annie Agar captured the essence of a 12-9 game with seven field goals:

This game is like watching my friends at the bar, they all want to score but nobody knows how

— Annie Agar (@AnnieAgar) October 7, 2022

Annie became a social media star during the pandemic with her teams on a Zoom call videos, and her latest on NFL week 4 is hilarious and worth checking out until the very end.

Football betting with a PhD edge

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Dr. Ed Feng has bet based on the analytics he developed from his Stanford PhD.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”








 

 
 

Filed Under: 7-Nugget Saturday, The Power Rank Newsletter

7-Nugget Saturday, October 1, 2022

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Your weekly dose of sports betting tips and news, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Hurricane Ian – Weather may play a role in football betting this weekend. As of Saturday morning, Hurricane Ian is traveling north from North Carolina to Virginia. These two college football games were moved to Sunday. (All times Eastern).

  • Eastern Washington at Florida is now scheduled for noon on Sunday.
  • SMU at UCF is scheduled for 1pm on Sunday.

Here is a list of college football games that could be impacted by the hurricane.

  • East Carolina at South Florida (game moved to FAU stadium in Boca Raton).
  • Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina (kick off moved to 7pm).
  • Virginia at Duke
  • Virginia Tech at North Carolina
  • Texas State at James Madison
  • Liberty at Old Dominion

The totals in these games will go down if the hurricane will impact the game.

New England at Green Bay – Two weeks ago, Green Bay closed -10, +100 against the lowly Bears. Now, the Patriots are priced in the same territory with the start for QB Brian Hoyer.

Hoyer is undoubtedly a downgrade from Mac Jones. However, professional bettor Rob Pizzola points out that the Pats’ underlying metrics are much better than the results so far.

Green Bay has struggled to find their groove, and Rob likes New England +9.5. Check out all of the great work Rob and co-workers do over at The Hammer, a new sports betting media company.

Betscope for the NFL – One of the easiest ways to boost your ROI is arbitrage situations. For example, markets had the following bets at one time this week:

  • BetMGM had +105 for Tyler Lockett over 5.5 receptions
  • DraftKings had +100 for Tyler Lockett under 5.5 receptions

A bet of $102 on the under at Draftkings and $100 on the over at BetMGM locks in a profit.

However, the more profitable way to capitalize on arbitrage situations is to bet the profitable side. You can do this with Betscope’s ROI calculator by making small changes to the receptions line. After changing Lockett’s receptions from 5.6 to 5.61, Betscope calculated a 3.1% edge on over 5.5 receptions, +105.

Identifying markets with pricing mistakes is a surefire way to grow your bankroll. To find these opportunities, check out Betscope for the NFL.

Injuries – Unless otherwise noted, this information is from USA Today for college football and ESPN for the NFL.

  • Dallas QB Dak Prescott will not play week 4 against Washington due to a thumb injury.
  • Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa has a concussion and neck injury from the Thursday night game at Cincinnati. He is questionable moving forward.
  • New England QB Mac Jones is doubtful against Green Bay due to an ankle injury.
  • New Orleans QB Jameis Winston is doubtful against Minnesota in London, but Winston has played the last few weeks despite his appearance on the injury list.
  • New York Jets QB Zach Wilson makes his debut this season against Pittsburgh.
  • Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa has a rib injury and is questionable against Michigan State.
  • Purdue QB Aiden O’Connell didn’t play last week against Florida Atlantic and is questionable against Minnesota.
  • Fresno State QB Jake Haener will not play against Connecticut due to an ankle injury.
  • LSU QB Jayden Daniels left last week’s game with a back injury, but coach Brian Kelly said on Wednesday that he’s good to go against Auburn.

Alabama at Arkansas – The Razorbacks are still reeling from a game winning field goal attempt that bounced off the top of the goal post last week against Texas A&M. It doesn’t get any easier as Alabama comes to town this week.

Bill Connelly of ESPN notes how Arkansas’s pass defense has struggled this season, and it will not help that star safety Jalen Catalon is out for the season. This seems like a poor match up against defending Heisman winner Bryce Young and Alabama.

Both Bill’s SP+ and The Power Rank member predictions have Alabama by 15.3 points at Arkansas.

NFTuck – In case the Spartan performance on the field hasn’t been enough for fans, you can now purchase a non-fungible token (NFT) for Michigan State coach Mel Tucker. The only question is whether its value will exceed the $95 million value of Tucker’s contract.

The Power Rank member numbers favor Maryland by 5.9 points against Michigan State. This preseason, my numbers would have made Michigan State a 3.3 point road favorite.

Florida QB Anthony Richardson – Last week, I tweeted that Richardson had the 4th best odds to become the first pick of the 2023 NFL Draft at 14-1. This seemed odd due to the struggles of Florida’s offense this season (16 points and 21.2% success rate against Kentucky).

I got a reply that asked “Have these people watched him throw passes?” FanDuel Sportsbook replied:

We actually just watch the highlights… he's not a running back?

— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) September 22, 2022

Despite 453 passing yard against Tennessee, Richardson has dropped to 50-1 to be the first overall NFL draft pick.

Football betting with a PhD edge

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Dr. Ed Feng has bet based on the analytics he developed from his Stanford PhD.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”








 

 
 

Filed Under: 7-Nugget Saturday, The Power Rank Newsletter

7-Nugget Saturday, September 24, 2022

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Your weekly dose of sports betting tips and news, each Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Buffalo at Miami, NFL Week 3 – Rob Pizzola of The Hammer can’t ignore the injuries to Buffalo’s defense. Key members of the secondary in S Micah Hyde and CB Dane Jackson will not play.

Rookie CB Christian Benford and Kaiir Elam have seen the field plenty this season due to an injury to Tre’Davious White, and they will get even more snaps this week. This must have an impact against a speedy group of Dolphins receivers.

In addition, DT Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips will also miss this game. Buffalo’s offense should score points as they usually do, and this all suggests value on the over. As of Saturday morning, FanDuel has 52.5, -115 on the over.

Rob and company do great work over at The Hammer, a new sports betting media company.

Surprising college football prediction – When I asked professional bettor Eddie Walls to make a prediction, he said he doubted whether Notre Dame would make a bowl. Even though I had the Fighting Irish were overrated at 5th in the preseason AP poll, this prediction really surprised me.

Eddie argued that Notre Dame has a great defense but almost nothing on offense. The schedule also looks tougher as a team like Syracuse no longer seems like an easy win.

Eddie brings an intimidating amount of college football knowledge to any conversation, and you can catch all of his insights on this week’s episode of The Football Analytics Show.

Injuries – Unless otherwise noted, this information is from USA Today for college football and ESPN for the NFL.

  • Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert sat out practice on Friday and is questionable against Jacksonville.
  • New Orleans QB Jameis Winston is again listed as questionable against Carolina, but he did play the entire game against Tampa Bay last week.
  • San Francisco QB Trey Lance was placed on injured reserve because of an ankle injury. Jimmy Garoppolo will start for the Niners.
  • Dallas QB Dak Prescott returned to practice on Thursday but will not play against the New York Giants on Monday night.
  • Auburn QB TJ Finley has a shoulder injury and will not play against Missouri. Robby Ashford will start, but he might have started anyway as Finley got benched against Penn State last week and Zach Calzada is also injured.
  • Florida State QB Jordan Travis has a leg injury and is questionable against Boston College.
  • Northern Illinois QB Rocky Lombardi has a knee injury and is questionable at Kentucky.
  • Purdue QB Aiden O’Connell has an unspecified injury and is a game time decision against Florida Atlantic.

James Madison at Appalachian State – Parker Fleming notes that James Madison QB Todd Centeio has been excellent this season. The transfer from Colorado State has completed 66% of his passes despite often throwing the ball deep (11.5 average depth of target).

James Madison should be able to throw the ball against an Appalachian State pass defense that has struggled this season. Parker’s numbers predict Appalachian State to win by 5.3 points, and he sees value in betting James Madison +7 in this game.

Parker puts together three college football shows per week for The Hammer that I highly recommend.

World soccer/football predictions – These predictions come from my world football/soccer rankings that take game results in international matches and adjust for opponent.

  • United States vs Saudi Arabia – United States has a 55.0% chance to win. Saudi Arabia has a 17.3% chance to win. There is a 27.6% chance for a tie. The USMNT looked awful against Japan on Friday in a 2-0 loss. The competition gets easier against Saudi Arabia in Spain on Tuesday.
  • England hosting Germany – England has a 55.6% chance to win. Germany has a 21.3% chance to win. There is a 23.1% chance for a tie. Both of these teams are coming off unexpected 1-0 losses, as England fell at Italy and Germany to Hungary.
  • Portugal hosting Spain – Portugal has a 44.9% chance to win. Spain has a 30.1% chance to win. There is a 25.0% chance for a tie. This match on Tuesday should be excellent as Spain and Portugal rank 5th and 7th respectively in my world soccer/football rankings.

For more predictions over this international weekend, click here. I’ll have lots more predictions before the World Cup starts on November 20.

NFL play by play data – You want to dig into the NFL play by play data, but you don’t want to scrape the data yourself. That nflfastR package exists, but it’s really annoying to get started with R as a Python coder.

Dr. Ben Baldwin, author and maintainer of nflfastR, has you covered. The most recent NFL play by play is available in a csv file the morning after games. Now you can data science to your heart’s content without actually having to scrape a thing.

Chad Powers – Eli Manning wanted to know more about the walk on experience, so he made a visit to Penn State. With the help of a make up team, he became Chad Powers.

In the end, he didn’t end up making the team for two reasons. “Think fast, run fast.” But this clip from the tryout is pure hilarity.

We thought Chad Powers looked familiar…@EliManning went undercover as a @PennStateFball walk-on and it is everything. pic.twitter.com/5i5eD22lO7

— Omaha Productions (@OmahaProd) September 19, 2022

You can catch the entire Chad Powers episode of Eli’s Places on YouTube.

Football betting with a PhD edge

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Dr. Ed Feng has bet based on the analytics he developed from his Stanford PhD.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”








 

 
 

Filed Under: 7-Nugget Saturday, The Power Rank Newsletter

7-Nugget Saturday, September 17, 2022

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Your weekly dose of sports betting tips and news, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Cincinnati at Dallas, NFL Week 2 – Dallas QB Dak Prescott will not play in this game, but professional NFL bettor Rob Pizzola thinks that Dallas has problems on offense beyond the quarterback position.

Rob notes that the Cowboys will not have OG Connor McGovern due to injury. This compounds the issues on the offensive line, as OT Tyron Smith didn’t play week 1 due to injury. WR Michael Gallup will not play.

On Rob’s appearance on The Football Analytics Show, he said his model made Cincinnati almost a 10 point favorite at Dallas. He sees value in Cincinnati -7, a number widely available on Saturday morning.

Check out all the sports betting content on Rob’s new company The Hammer.

NFL passing success rate – At The Power Rank, I calculate success rate on passing plays based on the play by play data. Here is sample of values from week 1 (the NFL average was 43.2%).

  • Buffalo, 60.6% at the Los Angeles Rams.
  • Green Bay, 47.6% at Minnesota despite the 4 sacks Aaron Rodgers took.
  • Denver, 43.2% in the Nathaniel Hackett time management Mount Rushmore game.
  • Pittsburgh, 29.0% in a win fortuitous win at Cincinnati.
  • Dallas, 26.1% with Dak Prescott against Tampa Bay, an NFL worst in Week 1.

I define success on a play if the offense gets the following fraction of yards towards the next first down:

  • 50% on 1st down.
  • 70% on 2nd down.
  • 100% on 3rd, 4th down.

I’ve found this definition of success rate as predictive for NFL passing as the definition that considers positive expected points added (EPA).

Interested in having raw NFL passing success rates on the public part of The Power Rank? I’ll post these numbers if we reach a certain threshold on this tweet.

Injuries – Unless otherwise noted, this information is from USA Today for college football and ESPN for the NFL.

  • Dallas QB Dak Prescott needs at least 7-10 days to deal with a thumb issue.
  • Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert has fractured rib cartilage after taking a hit Thursday night and is “day-to-day” at this stage.
  • New Orleans QB Jameis Winston is listed as questionable with a back injury, but he should play against Tampa Bay.
  • Pittsburgh QB Kedon Slovis didn’t play in the second half against Tennessee last week due to injury and is listed as questionable. QB Nick Patti finished the game against Tennessee but is questionable against Western Michigan due to a leg injury.
  • Notre Dame QB Tyler Buchner is out for the season with a shoulder injury. Drew Pyne takes over as the starter.
  • Texas QB Quinn Ewers sprained his shoulder against Alabama and will reportedly miss four to six weeks. However, Texas coach Steve Sarkisian would not say which of three QBs will start against UTSA.

Michigan State at Washington – The markets have moved in favor of Washington this season. While my numbers would have favored Michigan State on the road this preseason, the markets have Washington -3.5.

A big reason is QB Michael Penix Jr. The transfer from Indiana has led a pass offense with a success rate of 57.0% this season (college football average of 40.4%).

The Huskies have not faced the best competition though. However, as I noted on Covering the Spread, Penix led Indiana to 17th best pass offense by adjusted success rate in 2019. While he wasn’t as good the last two seasons at Indiana, Penix has shown a high ceiling.

NFL overreaction week? – Usually, the NFL markets overreact to a one game sample from the opening week. However, Fabian Sommer and Matt Landes noted that there seems to be less of an overreaction in 2022.

For example, San Francisco lost to Chicago, a team contending to be the worst in the NFL. In contrast, Seattle, the 29th team in The Power Rank’s member rankings this preseason, pulled off the upset against Denver.

Despite these results, the markets have favored San Francisco by as many as 10 points this week. Catch Fabian’s insights every Wednesday on the Props and Hops podcast.

Wisdom of crowds – Right Angle Sports is the gold standard in selling picks (yes, there are actually two honest services that win in the long term). How do they do it?

In a recent Q&A, long time employee MikeRAS discusses how RAS has an entire team that contributes to the picks. Some of these bettors have been betting for over a decade and seen almost everything.

This is the wisdom of crowds at work. While no one bettor is perfect, the combined wisdom of many bettors makes for a powerful predictor. This concept also drives the predictive power of the preseason AP in college basketball and football.

In the interview, MikeRAS also discusses his journey from finance to sports and how life as “one of the most gifted originators on earth” isn’t always smooth.

Mayhem in college football – The week 2 slate of college football games didn’t seem that exciting. However, Texas came within a few plays of beating Alabama, a favorite that fared better than Texas A&M, Notre Dame and Nebraska.

As always, SEC Shorts puts a hilarious spin on a wild second full week in college football.

The college football ER was very busy this weekend. pic.twitter.com/Ao09MssXpR

— SEC Shorts (@SECShorts) September 12, 2022

Football betting with a PhD edge

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Dr. Ed Feng has bet based on his analytics.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”








 

 
 

Filed Under: 7-Nugget Saturday, The Power Rank Newsletter

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