Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

NBA Three Point Shooting Contest – On yesterday’s Hardwood Handicappers podcast, Jonathan Von Tobel of VSIN makes the case for Buddy Hield to win this All-Star weekend contest.

Jonathan notes Hield’s 42.7% and 42.4% success rates on pull-up jumpers and catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts, respectively, which mimic the mechanics for the contest. Just as important is the lack of weak spots for Hield across the arc.

• 43% overall from three
• 41% on non-corner threes
• 50% from the corner

While the payout on Hield has decreased, there is still value on betting him to win the three point shooting contest (+420 at Caesars). Jonathan also sees value on Tyrese Haliburton, which FanDuel has at 10 to 1.

Houston college basketball futures – Kelvin Sampson has built an unexpected powerhouse in the American Athletic Conference, and the current version is elite on both sides of the ball. Here are their ranks by my adjusted points per possession.

• Offense, 5th
• Defense, 6th

As you can see from my member college basketball rankings page currently available for free to the public, this is the most balanced team in college basketball. This team features veterans like guard Marcus Sasser and high upside freshman like Jarace Walker.

My member numbers give Houston about an 18% chance to win the tournament. While this might be high in a year of parity, it does suggest value in Houston at 7 to 1 on DraftKings (12.5% break even probability).

College basketball predictions – These predictions can be calculated from the member college basketball rankings page currently available for free to the public.

• Indiana will beat Illinois by 2.5 points at home. Trayce Jackson-Davis is the star of this Indiana team, but freshman wing Jalen Hood-Schifino appears higher in many NBA mock drafts.
• Michigan will beat Michigan State by 2.8 points at home. Michigan had some hopes of making the tournament before losing their last two games by a total of six points. This will be the first game back for the Spartans after an on campus shooting.
• Tennessee will beat Kentucky by 1.8 points on the road. Tennessee ranks 1st in my defensive rankings by adjusted points per possession, while Kentucky is 80th.

NFL Draft – On a subscriber NFL+ video, draft expert Daniel Jeremiah broke down his top four QBs for the 2023 draft.

• Bryce Young, #2 to Houston – He has the best tape, but the NFL will question his lack of height.
• Will Levis, #4 to Indianapolis – He has all the tools like arm strength, and this is what the Colts value.
• CJ Stroud, #9 to Carolina – He helped himself with a big performance against a strong Georgia defense in his last game.
• Anthony Richardson, #22 to Baltimore – He’s a project and could learn under Lamar Jackson.

The markets are higher on Stroud than Levis to be the first pick. While Jeremiah’s analysis doesn’t suggest any value in the nascent draft markets, I’ll be following his every word in looking for value on NFL draft bets.

Fool me once, shame on me – When the NBA launched a league in Africa, Trevor Noah poked fun at the idea. He seemed so pleased to deliver this joke in a clip that will only take a minute of your time.

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You’ll also get my March Madness cheat sheet that makes it drop dead easy to fill out your bracket. And you’re going to need analytics more than ever in 2023 with such parity in college basketball.

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Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, analytics and news, Super Bowl props edition, and still at 10am Eastern.

Isiah Pacheco under 16.5 receiving yards – Pacheco has been a revelation, as the rookie out of Rutgers has taken over the primary running back duties and racked up 951 rushing yards. However, for the Super Bowl, it’s his receiving prop that has value.

As Matt Freedman noted on the Unexpected Points podcast, Pacheco had an outlier receiving performance with 5 catches on 6 targets for 59 yards against Cincinnati in the AFC Championship game. He had 14 targets the entire season before that, and Jerick McKinnon is usually the primary receiving threat out of the backfield.

Due to an overreaction to one game, Matt likes Pacheco under 16.5 receiving yards, -110 on FanDuel.

Kenneth Gainwell rushing yards – On Thursday’s Props & Hops podcast, pro bettor Hitman says he likes Kenneth Gainwell rushing yards under. He plans to wait and bet it on game day, however, in anticipation of lopsided public money driving up Gainwell’s total.

Gainwell’s recent stats may be misleading, as much of his volume has come late in blowout wins. The Super Bowl projects to be a competitive game. Gainwell is currently listed at 19.5 rushing yards, and Hitman expects to get under 20.5 or better shortly before kickoff.

When to make these Super Bowl prop bets – On an Unabated video, pro bettor Rufus Peabody discussed how he will make most of his bets on Sunday morning this year.

In past years, Rufus will bet on overs and events to happen (e.g. first touchdown) when the markets open. However, he has made fewer of these types of bets this year, as books are opening with better numbers.

As mentioned last week, Rufus says to bet unders as late as possible, as the public tends to push up player props such as passing and receiving yards. Hence, you might be able to wait on making the bets in 7-Nugget Saturday until a few hours before kick off.

Patrick Mahomes passing yards – Pro bettor Rob Pizzola thinks Kansas City will focus its attack on the running the ball and the short passing game.

Philadelphia holds a big edge in their front seven against the offensive line of the Chiefs. Rob doesn’t think Andy Reid will let Mahomes sit back in the pocket and face this pass rush, especially with the quality of the Philadelphia cornerbacks against Kansas City wide receivers.

Against better defenses, Mahomes usually has a passing yards prop in the mid 280s. Rob likes Mahomes under 294.5 passing yards, available at Caesars as of Saturday morning. Check out all the great work Rob and his team do at The Hammer.

Any FG/XP to Hit an Upright or Crossbar – For the Super Bowl, the public wants to bet on an event to happen (touchdown, more passing yards, etc). This often means value on betting things not to happen, even if this is way less fun.

On the Establish the Run podcast, Adam Levitan pointed out the DraftKings prop on whether a field goal or extra point hits an upright or crossbar. While he couldn’t find any data, he thinks -650 on no has value (a break even probability of 86.7%).

To bet this on DraftKings, look under Novelty Props and then Kick to Hit Post. You might forget about this one during the game, but it will be fun to find a probable winner on Monday morning.

Key Injuries – While Philadelphia has a remarkable clean bill of health, let’s check in a few key players for Kansas City.

• Kansas City WR Mecole Hardman won’t play, as he has been placed on IR because of a pelvis injury.
• Kansas City WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney have practiced all week and will play.

NFL humor – Tom Brady retired more times than Aaron Rodgers has won Super Bowls. Something to think about during a four day darkness retreat.

Data driven betting information

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

• Valuable
• Concise
• Entertaining

Part of this information contains my March Madness cheat sheet that makes it drop dead easy to fill out your bracket.

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Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Kansas City vs Philadelphia, Super Bowl – After opening as a pick, the market almost immediately moved towards the Eagles. As of Saturday morning, Philadelphia remains a 1.5 point favorite.

However, my member numbers like Kansas City by 2. A big reason is pass offense, as the Chiefs rank first in my adjusted passing success rate.

In contrast, Philadelphia ranks 15th in my adjusted passing success rate. In addition, there remain questions as to the health of the shoulder of QB Jalen Hurts.

The numbers suggest value in Kansas City +1.5 or +110 moneyline. Just like against Cincinnati, I expect the markets to favor Kansas City by kick off in eight days.

Purdue at Indiana – Pro bettor Mike Craig expects a slow half court game based on the ability of both teams to limit transition opportunities. This implies that the game should feature fewer possessions than what we have seen in Big Ten play so far.

Indiana is more equipped than most teams to defend Purdue’s Zach Edey inside, as they play strong defense at the rim. On the flip side, 7’4″ Edey and Purdue’s defense should excel against an Indiana team that doesn’t shoot a high rate of 3 point shots.

Mike sees value in under 139.5, available at FanDuel on Saturday morning.

Miles Sanders rushing prop – On an episode of The Football Analytics Show, pro bettor Hitman likes the over on the rushing yards prop for the Philadelphia RB.

While he only had 43 yards in the NFC Championship game against San Francisco, Hitman notes that other running backs got carries when Philadelphia had a big lead in the second half. As of Saturday morning, you can find over 58.5 rushing yards for Miles Sanders.

Hitman also discussed his evolution from recreational to professional bettor, his process for betting the NFL, and the spread in the Super Bowl in an awesome episode of The Football Analytics Show.

Super Bowl prop strategy – If you want to bet the over on Miles Sanders rushing prop above, you should do it now.

Pro bettor Rufus Peabody often has a huge portfolio of Super Bowl bets, and he gave out some great advice on Circles Off last year (listen at 21:15). He recommends betting early on overs or on any bet for something to happen (e.g. scoring a touchdown). With the public nature of Super Bowl betting, these numbers tend to go up.

If you want to bet the under or for an event not to happen, you can wait closer to kick off. The market might give you a better number.

Super Bowl longest field goal – On the Props & Hops podcast, NFL handicapper SharpClarke and host Matt Landes made the case for the Chiefs to make the longest field goal.

As the more analytics-driven team, the Eagles are more likely to go for it on 4th and short in field goal range. It helps that short-yardage situations are a forte for Philadelphia and a weakness for Kansas City.

This is available at even money at DraftKings in a three-way market (no field goals or a tie would lose) and at -115 offshore in a two-way market (no field goals or a tie would push).

College basketball adjusted efficiencies – Michigan has struggled to a 12-10 record this season. The Wolverines need a late season surge to make the NCAA tournament.

The biggest weakness for this team is defense. In my numbers, I take points per possession and adjust for schedule with my proprietary algorithm. Based on data from the current season, Michigan ranks 92nd, by far the worst of the Juwan Howard era.

For a limited time, you can check out my member college basketball rankings page for free, which includes:

• Ratings for each team that lets you generate my member college basketball predictions
• Offensive and defensive rankings and ratings by adjusted points per possession

You can also let me do the work for you, as a members of The Power Rank get my college basketball predictions the day before the game.

Ground Hog Day – On Tuesday when a furry animal emerged from a burrow, Matt Buchalter had a different take.

Groundhog Day is no big deal to gambling Twitter because we get pseudoscientific predictions from weasels 365

— Plus EV Analytics (@PlusEVAnalytics) February 2, 2023

Data driven betting information

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

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Over the next week, emails will curate Super Bowl bets from the sharpest minds in the business.

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Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Super Bowl look ahead spread – Based on my current member numbers, I’d make Cincinnati a pick or -0.5 against either Philadelphia or San Francisco.

Assuming a full strength Patrick Mahomes, I’d make Kansas City -2 on a neutral site against Philadelphia or San Francisco. It really makes things easy when the two finalists from the NFC have about the same rating.

Patrick Mahomes passing yards prop – The market has concerns about Mahomes’s ankle injury, but it may have over adjusted a few numbers. For example, the passing yards prop is typically in the 310 range, but DraftKings has 285.5 for the game against Cincinnati.

On the latest Props & Hops podcast, pro bettor Hitman said that his information leads him to believe Mahomes will be healthier that the market anticipates. Hitman also thinks that if Mahomes has limited mobility, it might turn a few scrambles into pass attempts, which helps the over.

Hitman likes Mahomes over 285.5 passing yards against Cincinnati.

Brock Purdy – Despite the stellar play of the rookie, I was determined to find something wrong with him. He had only thrown four interceptions this year, but there is huge amount of randomness in picks.

Back in 2020, my COVID project was a better way to predict interceptions. I found that it’s more predictive to look at interceptions and pass defended, or any play in which a defender gets a hand on a pass or jars the ball loose with a hit on a receiver. In essence, this expands the set of plays in which the QB put the ball in a dangerous position.

The key to predicting interceptions is bad ball rate, or interceptions and pass defended per pass attempt (my research found this to be as predictive as completion percentage). The verdict on Purdy? His bad ball rate of 11.7%, better than NFL average of 12.3% this season.

Based on a market value of 31.5 pass attempts, Purdy has a 50.2% chance to not throw a pick, or to go under 0.5 interceptions.

San Francisco at Philadelphia – Pro bettor Rob Pizzola likes many aspects of Philadelphia’s match up with San Francisco.

First, Philadelphia is capable of exploiting San Francisco’s weakness in the secondary. While CB Charvarius Ward is solid, this leaves Deommodore Lenoir to cover either A.J. Brown on Devonta Smith on the outside.

Second, Philadelphia has strength along the offensive line to match up with the strength of San Francisco’s defensive line. This will help slow down the Niners pass rush. If the pass protection breaks down, QB Jalen Hurts can then scramble against a defense ranked 26th in success rate against QB scrambles.

Rob likes Philadelphia -2.5 at home. Check out all the good work Rob and colleagues do over at The Hammer.

Injuries – This information is curated from the ESPN NFL injuries page unless otherwise noted.

• Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes is dealing with an ankle sprain, but coach Andy Reid says he will start. Mahomes hasn’t been on the injury list the past two days, but his mobility remains a question.
• Kansas City WRs Mecole Hardman and Justin Watson are questionable with a pelvis injury and illness respectively.
• Philadelphia OT Lane Johnson and CB Avonte Maddox both practiced on Friday and will play against San Francisco.
• San Francisco RB Elijah Mitchell is questionable with a groin injury. Key weapons RB Christian McCaffrey and WR Deebo Samuel were on the injury report earlier this week but are no longer there.

Get ready for a wild NCAA tournament – My college basketball team rankings take margin of victory and adjust for schedule with my proprietary algorithm. Let’s look at the rank of the four teams that have contested the last two championship games:

• Kansas – 18th
• North Carolina – 21st
• Baylor – 25th
• Gonzaga – 19th

This season, Purdue tops these rankings, and they are predicted to beat an average Division 1 team by 16.6 points. At this point last season, five teams had a higher rating than 16.6.

Early season returns suggest that there are no dominant teams in college basketball. There might be more surprise Elite Eight and Final Four teams in the 2023 NCAA tournament than usual.

Humor – Greg sent professional poker player Melissa an unwanted picture of his genitalia. Melissa posted a cleaned up version still not suitable to show here and said “thanks i hate it.”

Greg was not pleased, and asked to get in touch with her boss. Melissa sent him to another poker player, who informed Greg that HR said that this matter needed to go to the police. Greg didn’t get the joke and was not pleased. You can’t make this up.

This Barstool article makes it easy to follow the thread.

Data driven betting information

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

• Valuable
• Concise
• Entertaining

Other emails offer analysis of NFL bets that founder Ed Feng has made and March Madness bracket advice.

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