Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
NBA Three Point Shooting Contest – On yesterday’s Hardwood Handicappers podcast, Jonathan Von Tobel of VSIN makes the case for Buddy Hield to win this All-Star weekend contest.
Jonathan notes Hield’s 42.7% and 42.4% success rates on pull-up jumpers and catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts, respectively, which mimic the mechanics for the contest. Just as important is the lack of weak spots for Hield across the arc.
- 43% overall from three
- 41% on non-corner threes
- 50% from the corner
While the payout on Hield has decreased, there is still value on betting him to win the three point shooting contest (+420 at Caesars). Jonathan also sees value on Tyrese Haliburton, which FanDuel has at 10 to 1.
Houston college basketball futures – Kelvin Sampson has built an unexpected powerhouse in the American Athletic Conference, and the current version is elite on both sides of the ball. Here are their ranks by my adjusted points per possession.
- Offense, 5th
- Defense, 6th
As you can see from my member college basketball rankings page currently available for free to the public, this is the most balanced team in college basketball. This team features veterans like guard Marcus Sasser and high upside freshman like Jarace Walker.
My member numbers give Houston about an 18% chance to win the tournament. While this might be high in a year of parity, it does suggest value in Houston at 7 to 1 on DraftKings (12.5% break even probability).
College basketball predictions – These predictions can be calculated from the member college basketball rankings page currently available for free to the public.
- Indiana will beat Illinois by 2.5 points at home. Trayce Jackson-Davis is the star of this Indiana team, but freshman wing Jalen Hood-Schifino appears higher in many NBA mock drafts.
- Michigan will beat Michigan State by 2.8 points at home. Michigan had some hopes of making the tournament before losing their last two games by a total of six points. This will be the first game back for the Spartans after an on campus shooting.
- Tennessee will beat Kentucky by 1.8 points on the road. Tennessee ranks 1st in my defensive rankings by adjusted points per possession, while Kentucky is 80th.
NFL Draft – On a subscriber NFL+ video, draft expert Daniel Jeremiah broke down his top four QBs for the 2023 draft.
- Bryce Young, #2 to Houston – He has the best tape, but the NFL will question his lack of height.
- Will Levis, #4 to Indianapolis – He has all the tools like arm strength, and this is what the Colts value.
- CJ Stroud, #9 to Carolina – He helped himself with a big performance against a strong Georgia defense in his last game.
- Anthony Richardson, #22 to Baltimore – He’s a project and could learn under Lamar Jackson.
The markets are higher on Stroud than Levis to be the first pick. While Jeremiah’s analysis doesn’t suggest any value in the nascent draft markets, I’ll be following his every word in looking for value on NFL draft bets.
Fool me once, shame on me – When the NBA launched a league in Africa, Trevor Noah poked fun at the idea. He seemed so pleased to deliver this joke in a clip that will only take a minute of your time.
Data driven betting information
These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:
You’ll also get my March Madness cheat sheet that makes it drop dead easy to fill out your bracket. And you’re going to need analytics more than ever in 2023 with such parity in college basketball.
To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”