Looking for sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

NBA points prop – Lev Akabas pointed out the consistency of Oklahoma City super star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, as SGA has scored between 30 and 34 points in 46% of this games this season. This consistency suggests value in his player points prop.

The market has SGA’s points prop at 28.5, below is season average of 30.1 points per game. The market expects Oklahoma City to score 105 points, fewer than their regular season average of 120.1 points per game.

However, SGA has played more minutes and taken more shots in two games against New Orleans than his regular season averages. With his consistency, he has gone over 28.5 points in 52 of 77 games this season. There is value in SGA over 28.5 points, -105 at DraftKings.

Michigan at Memphis, UFL – Edward Egros notes that E.J. Perry has been a solid dual-threat quarterback for Michigan with 151 rushing yards (2nd among QBs behind Adrian Martinez) and 664 passing yards (4th in the UFL).  However, he will miss the rest of the season with a leg injury. 

Danny Etling should get the start for Michigan, but he possesses a different skill set that will require an adjustment time for the offense. Meanwhile, Memphis has scored the second-fewest points in the league this season. 

Edward likes under 40.5 points in Michigan at Memphis. Check out his least squares (Massey) rankings of UFL teams on his Substack.

Champions League predictions – For the top five European leagues, I use xG (expected goals) data from FBRef and adjust for competition with my ranking algorithm. Champions League and Europa League data allow for comparisons between the top five leagues.

Here are predictions for the Champions League semi-final matches based on these numbers.

• Bayern Munich hosting Real Madrid – Bayern Munich has a 47.6% chance to win (FanDuel has 41.7% break even probability). Real Madrid has a 29.0% chance to win. There is a 23.4% chance for a tie.
• Dortmund hosting PSG – Dortmund has a 29.2% chance to win (FanDuel has 36.4% break even probability). PSG has a 48.0% chance to win. There is a 22.8% chance for a tie.

The markets lean towards Real Madrid on the road, as Bayern Munich has not passed the eye test in numerous Bundesliga matches this season (Leverkusen, Dortmund). The xG numbers hate Dortmund, but the markets seem to give them credit for better play of late.

Please do not take these numbers as betting advice, but they do provide an objective baseline for further handicapping.

NFL draft analytics – A consensus big board uses the wisdom of crowds to aggregate the work of many talent evaluators. Arif Hasan collects 101 big boards in April to come up with the best estimation of talent.

Anthony Reinhart used this data to calculate which teams got the most value. His data visualization suggests two big conclusions from the first round on Monday:

• On Thursday morning, there was a question whether Michael Penix Jr and Bo Nix would get drafted in the 1st round. These quarterbacks went with the 8th and 12th pick, respectively. These picks are the two biggest reaches by Anthony’s analysis.
• The first defensive player didn’t get taken until the 15th pick, which pushed the top two cornerbacks even later in the draft. Terrion Arnold (24th to Detroit) and Quinyon Mitchell (22nd to Philadelphia) were the two biggest steals of the first round.

Football humor – Bill Burr on watching the NFL draft.

tonight pic.twitter.com/fgoF9qxMRB

— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) April 25, 2024

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Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

NBA Three Point Shooting Contest – On yesterday’s Hardwood Handicappers podcast, Jonathan Von Tobel of VSIN makes the case for Buddy Hield to win this All-Star weekend contest.

Jonathan notes Hield’s 42.7% and 42.4% success rates on pull-up jumpers and catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts, respectively, which mimic the mechanics for the contest. Just as important is the lack of weak spots for Hield across the arc.

• 43% overall from three
• 41% on non-corner threes
• 50% from the corner

While the payout on Hield has decreased, there is still value on betting him to win the three point shooting contest (+420 at Caesars). Jonathan also sees value on Tyrese Haliburton, which FanDuel has at 10 to 1.

Houston college basketball futures – Kelvin Sampson has built an unexpected powerhouse in the American Athletic Conference, and the current version is elite on both sides of the ball. Here are their ranks by my adjusted points per possession.

• Offense, 5th
• Defense, 6th

As you can see from my member college basketball rankings page currently available for free to the public, this is the most balanced team in college basketball. This team features veterans like guard Marcus Sasser and high upside freshman like Jarace Walker.

My member numbers give Houston about an 18% chance to win the tournament. While this might be high in a year of parity, it does suggest value in Houston at 7 to 1 on DraftKings (12.5% break even probability).

College basketball predictions – These predictions can be calculated from the member college basketball rankings page currently available for free to the public.

• Indiana will beat Illinois by 2.5 points at home. Trayce Jackson-Davis is the star of this Indiana team, but freshman wing Jalen Hood-Schifino appears higher in many NBA mock drafts.
• Michigan will beat Michigan State by 2.8 points at home. Michigan had some hopes of making the tournament before losing their last two games by a total of six points. This will be the first game back for the Spartans after an on campus shooting.
• Tennessee will beat Kentucky by 1.8 points on the road. Tennessee ranks 1st in my defensive rankings by adjusted points per possession, while Kentucky is 80th.

NFL Draft – On a subscriber NFL+ video, draft expert Daniel Jeremiah broke down his top four QBs for the 2023 draft.

• Bryce Young, #2 to Houston – He has the best tape, but the NFL will question his lack of height.
• Will Levis, #4 to Indianapolis – He has all the tools like arm strength, and this is what the Colts value.
• CJ Stroud, #9 to Carolina – He helped himself with a big performance against a strong Georgia defense in his last game.
• Anthony Richardson, #22 to Baltimore – He’s a project and could learn under Lamar Jackson.

The markets are higher on Stroud than Levis to be the first pick. While Jeremiah’s analysis doesn’t suggest any value in the nascent draft markets, I’ll be following his every word in looking for value on NFL draft bets.

Fool me once, shame on me – When the NBA launched a league in Africa, Trevor Noah poked fun at the idea. He seemed so pleased to deliver this joke in a clip that will only take a minute of your time.

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Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, analytics and news, Super Bowl props edition, and still at 10am Eastern.

Isiah Pacheco under 16.5 receiving yards – Pacheco has been a revelation, as the rookie out of Rutgers has taken over the primary running back duties and racked up 951 rushing yards. However, for the Super Bowl, it’s his receiving prop that has value.

As Matt Freedman noted on the Unexpected Points podcast, Pacheco had an outlier receiving performance with 5 catches on 6 targets for 59 yards against Cincinnati in the AFC Championship game. He had 14 targets the entire season before that, and Jerick McKinnon is usually the primary receiving threat out of the backfield.

Due to an overreaction to one game, Matt likes Pacheco under 16.5 receiving yards, -110 on FanDuel.

Kenneth Gainwell rushing yards – On Thursday’s Props & Hops podcast, pro bettor Hitman says he likes Kenneth Gainwell rushing yards under. He plans to wait and bet it on game day, however, in anticipation of lopsided public money driving up Gainwell’s total.

Gainwell’s recent stats may be misleading, as much of his volume has come late in blowout wins. The Super Bowl projects to be a competitive game. Gainwell is currently listed at 19.5 rushing yards, and Hitman expects to get under 20.5 or better shortly before kickoff.

When to make these Super Bowl prop bets – On an Unabated video, pro bettor Rufus Peabody discussed how he will make most of his bets on Sunday morning this year.

In past years, Rufus will bet on overs and events to happen (e.g. first touchdown) when the markets open. However, he has made fewer of these types of bets this year, as books are opening with better numbers.

As mentioned last week, Rufus says to bet unders as late as possible, as the public tends to push up player props such as passing and receiving yards. Hence, you might be able to wait on making the bets in 7-Nugget Saturday until a few hours before kick off.

Patrick Mahomes passing yards – Pro bettor Rob Pizzola thinks Kansas City will focus its attack on the running the ball and the short passing game.

Philadelphia holds a big edge in their front seven against the offensive line of the Chiefs. Rob doesn’t think Andy Reid will let Mahomes sit back in the pocket and face this pass rush, especially with the quality of the Philadelphia cornerbacks against Kansas City wide receivers.

Against better defenses, Mahomes usually has a passing yards prop in the mid 280s. Rob likes Mahomes under 294.5 passing yards, available at Caesars as of Saturday morning. Check out all the great work Rob and his team do at The Hammer.

Any FG/XP to Hit an Upright or Crossbar – For the Super Bowl, the public wants to bet on an event to happen (touchdown, more passing yards, etc). This often means value on betting things not to happen, even if this is way less fun.

On the Establish the Run podcast, Adam Levitan pointed out the DraftKings prop on whether a field goal or extra point hits an upright or crossbar. While he couldn’t find any data, he thinks -650 on no has value (a break even probability of 86.7%).

To bet this on DraftKings, look under Novelty Props and then Kick to Hit Post. You might forget about this one during the game, but it will be fun to find a probable winner on Monday morning.

Key Injuries – While Philadelphia has a remarkable clean bill of health, let’s check in a few key players for Kansas City.

• Kansas City WR Mecole Hardman won’t play, as he has been placed on IR because of a pelvis injury.
• Kansas City WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney have practiced all week and will play.

NFL humor – Tom Brady retired more times than Aaron Rodgers has won Super Bowls. Something to think about during a four day darkness retreat.

Data driven betting information

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Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Kansas City vs Philadelphia, Super Bowl – After opening as a pick, the market almost immediately moved towards the Eagles. As of Saturday morning, Philadelphia remains a 1.5 point favorite.

However, my member numbers like Kansas City by 2. A big reason is pass offense, as the Chiefs rank first in my adjusted passing success rate.

In contrast, Philadelphia ranks 15th in my adjusted passing success rate. In addition, there remain questions as to the health of the shoulder of QB Jalen Hurts.

The numbers suggest value in Kansas City +1.5 or +110 moneyline. Just like against Cincinnati, I expect the markets to favor Kansas City by kick off in eight days.

Purdue at Indiana – Pro bettor Mike Craig expects a slow half court game based on the ability of both teams to limit transition opportunities. This implies that the game should feature fewer possessions than what we have seen in Big Ten play so far.

Indiana is more equipped than most teams to defend Purdue’s Zach Edey inside, as they play strong defense at the rim. On the flip side, 7’4″ Edey and Purdue’s defense should excel against an Indiana team that doesn’t shoot a high rate of 3 point shots.

Mike sees value in under 139.5, available at FanDuel on Saturday morning.

Miles Sanders rushing prop – On an episode of The Football Analytics Show, pro bettor Hitman likes the over on the rushing yards prop for the Philadelphia RB.

While he only had 43 yards in the NFC Championship game against San Francisco, Hitman notes that other running backs got carries when Philadelphia had a big lead in the second half. As of Saturday morning, you can find over 58.5 rushing yards for Miles Sanders.

Hitman also discussed his evolution from recreational to professional bettor, his process for betting the NFL, and the spread in the Super Bowl in an awesome episode of The Football Analytics Show.

Super Bowl prop strategy – If you want to bet the over on Miles Sanders rushing prop above, you should do it now.

Pro bettor Rufus Peabody often has a huge portfolio of Super Bowl bets, and he gave out some great advice on Circles Off last year (listen at 21:15). He recommends betting early on overs or on any bet for something to happen (e.g. scoring a touchdown). With the public nature of Super Bowl betting, these numbers tend to go up.

If you want to bet the under or for an event not to happen, you can wait closer to kick off. The market might give you a better number.

Super Bowl longest field goal – On the Props & Hops podcast, NFL handicapper SharpClarke and host Matt Landes made the case for the Chiefs to make the longest field goal.

As the more analytics-driven team, the Eagles are more likely to go for it on 4th and short in field goal range. It helps that short-yardage situations are a forte for Philadelphia and a weakness for Kansas City.

This is available at even money at DraftKings in a three-way market (no field goals or a tie would lose) and at -115 offshore in a two-way market (no field goals or a tie would push).

College basketball adjusted efficiencies – Michigan has struggled to a 12-10 record this season. The Wolverines need a late season surge to make the NCAA tournament.

The biggest weakness for this team is defense. In my numbers, I take points per possession and adjust for schedule with my proprietary algorithm. Based on data from the current season, Michigan ranks 92nd, by far the worst of the Juwan Howard era.

For a limited time, you can check out my member college basketball rankings page for free, which includes:

• Ratings for each team that lets you generate my member college basketball predictions
• Offensive and defensive rankings and ratings by adjusted points per possession

You can also let me do the work for you, as a members of The Power Rank get my college basketball predictions the day before the game.

Ground Hog Day – On Tuesday when a furry animal emerged from a burrow, Matt Buchalter had a different take.

Groundhog Day is no big deal to gambling Twitter because we get pseudoscientific predictions from weasels 365

— Plus EV Analytics (@PlusEVAnalytics) February 2, 2023

Data driven betting information

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Over the next week, emails will curate Super Bowl bets from the sharpest minds in the business.

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