Podcast: Ben Alamar on the ESPN Football Power Index and NFL Divisional Playoffs

On this week’s episode of the Football Analytics Show, I’m honored to have Dr. Ben Alamar, Director of Sports Analytics at ESPN. We dig into a host of topics, which includes:

  • The NBA executive that opened the conversation with “I don’t believe this analytics stuff”
  • How FPI (Football Power Index) makes adjustments for quarterback injuries
  • The surprising team to which FPI assigns the second highest Super Bowl win probability
  • The hidden factor that gives Dallas an extra point in the FPI prediction against Green Bay
  • Spread predictions for all 4 Divisional Playoff games for FPI (not available anywhere on the internet to my knowledge) and my member numbers
  • Ben’s 3 tips for breaking into sports analytics

You can check out the work of ESPN analytics team by clicking here.

To listen to the show on iTunes, click here.

To listen here, click on the play button:

Podcast: Cade Massey on the NFL Playoffs and College Football Championship Game

On this week’s episode of the Football Analytics Show, I’m joined by Cade Massey, professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. He studies judgment under uncertainty, and there’s no better example than his Massey-Peabody football predictions.

We cover a wide range of topics, which includes:

  • How Cade has learned humility in building a predictive football model
  • The playoff karma of the New York Giants
  • What data says about whether match ups matter in football predictions
  • The sneaky trick for breaking into the sports analytics world
  • The Massey-Peabody prediction for Alabama versus Clemson

For match ups, I discuss a similar study in college basketball.

To listen on iTunes, click here.

To listen here, click on the play button.

Podcast: College Football Playoff Show with Mike Craig

I had the honor of having Mike Craig on the Football Analytics Show this week. Mike has made a living for ten years investing in the sports markets, and he’s been my partner in running the college football prediction service the past three years.

On the podcast, we discuss the following:

  • The difficulty of rating elite defenses like Alabama and Michigan
  • The key match up in Ohio State versus Clemson
  • The transition Mike has made from models that predict the markets to something else
  • The impossibility of giving only one piece of advice to those that want to start betting on sports

To listen on iTunes, click here.

To listen on the site, click on the play button.

Podcast: Market rankings for college football and NFL

With a bit of a break in college football, I devote this week’s episode of the Football Analytics Show to market rankings. These come from taking the closing point spreads in the markets and adjusting for schedule to rank teams.

These market rankings reveal some surprising opinions about college and pro teams:

  • The college football playoff team that is 8th in these market rankings.
  • The surprising top ranked college football team by the markets.
  • The ESPN pundits have Oakland as their top AFC team, but the markets beg to differ.
  • The college football team the markets didn’t give up on, even though media did.

To listen to the podcast on iTunes, click here.

To listen on the site, click on the play button.

Podcast: College football championship week, Atlanta Falcons and Washington Redskins

thefootballanalyticsshow_cover_landscapeCollege football is getting real, folks. In this week’s podcast, I discuss the scenarios for all the top teams.

Ohio State isn’t a lock. There just aren’t any locks in sports, although it is highly likely the Buckeyes make the playoff.

Michigan isn’t dead. But they do need help, and maybe more than you think.

Then I transition to the NFL to discuss the Atlanta Falcons, the surprising top team in my member NFL rankings. We shall see how long they last there.

Last but not least, I look at the Washington Redskins and their potent offense. They have an interesting game at Arizona this week.

To listen to the podcast, click on the play button.

To listen on iTunes, click here.