Hitman, a professional NFL bettor, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include:

• His evolution as a professional bettor (8:50)
• Getting bets down, then and now (12:12)
• His process for betting NFL spreads and totals (19:50)
• Super Bowl spread bet (27:57)
• His process for betting NFL player props (33:16)
• Two Super Bowl props he likes (36:30)
• More thoughts on the Super Bowl game script (41:34)
• Why he sells picks (46:07)

Here is the Washington Post article on sports betting that we discussed.

Hitman also gives his real name for the first time on a podcast during the first few minutes of the show. To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

This episode of The Football Analytics Show is also available on:

• YouTube
• Spotify
• Apple Podcasts

Support the podcast on Patreon.

Dr. Eric Eager, the Vice President of Research and Development at Sumer Sports, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include:

• His transition from PFF to Sumer Sports (4:20)
• The problem with a football betting model (12:03)
• Tampa Bay (14:20)
• San Francisco at Philadelphia (17:38)
• Cincinnati at Kansas City (21:33)
• Overreaction to Cincinnati at Buffalo (26:17)
• The evolution of the Kansas City offense (28:09)
• The spread if Patrick Mahomes can’t play (35:08)
• The role of luck in sports (47:08)

This episode of The Football Analytics Show is also available on:

• YouTube
• Spotify
• Apple Podcasts

Support the podcast on Patreon.

Chris Bennett, the Director of Risk at Circa Sports Book, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include:

• His first stoke of luck in his career (10:35)
• How he got his start in bookmaking (11:30)
• His edge as a sports bettor (22:06)
• NFL bookmaking (27:31)
• The NFL limits at Circa, open and close (33:49)
• Do big groups wait to bet right before the game? (44:57)
• Analytics in bookmaking (49:31)
• Dallas at San Francisco (52:57)
• Jacksonville at Kansas City (57:53)
• New York Giants at Philadelphia (59:55)
• Cincinnati at Buffalo (1:01:58)
• Super Bowl futures and implied probability (1:04:55)
• Spread for Kansas vs Buffalo AFC Championship game (1:09:53)

I always enjoy talking with bookmakers, and this conversation was no different. To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

This episode of The Football Analytics Show is also available on:

• YouTube
• Spotify
• Apple Podcasts

Support the podcast on Patreon.

Kevin Cole, football analytics expert and creator of the Unexpected Points newsletter and podcast, joins the show for a wide ranging conversion. Highlights include:

• Chicago Bears and the number one pick in the 2023 draft (5:21)
• Adjusting QB stats for teammates and Daniel Jones (15:03)
• Kevin’s model for predicting spreads (23:50)
• Seattle at San Francisco (27:35)
• Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville (32:35)
• Miami at Buffalo (35:44)
• New York Giants at Minnesota (38:05)
• Baltimore at Cincinnati (40:25)
• Dallas at Tampa Bay (45:03)
• The favorite to make the Super Bowl from the AFC (49:23)

Kevin always has so many insights with everything he says. To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

This episode of The Football Analytics Show is also available on:

• YouTube
• Spotify
• Apple Podcasts

Support the podcast on Patreon.

Jim Sannes, senior writer/analyst at FanDuel and host of the Covering the Spread podcast, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include:

• The predictive models that Jim uses in his handicapping (9:20)
• Philadelphia Eagles (15:39)
• A week 18 NFL bet (17:11)
• When models are way off market (20:24)
• His trick for finding NFL player prop bets (22:29)
• Detroit at Green Bay (26:55)
• Tennessee at Jacksonville (33:22)
• Tampa Bay at Atlanta, injury adjustments (36:40)
• A surprise prediction for the NFL playoffs (43:16)

In the potentially non-sports section, we had a fun conversation about what era to live in. To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

This episode of The Football Analytics Show is also available on:

• YouTube
• Spotify
• Apple Podcasts

Support the podcast on Patreon.