Podcast: Adam Stanco on the 2017 NCAA tournament

The Football Analytics Show turns to college basketball for the next month, as Adam Stanco, producer at the Pac-12 Network and true hoops junkie, joins me to talk about the 2017 NCAA tournament. We discuss the following:

  • Adam’s five factors for teams that could win the tournament
  • The prime contender from the West coast with a surprising amount of NBA talent
  • The West coast team on which Adam disagrees with my numbers
  • The highly touted team that might win the tournament if they only had a true point guard
  • How Adam got his break in the sports world

To listen on iTunes, click here.

To listen here, click on the play button.

You can get more basketball content from Adam on his Great Point Podcast.

Podcast: Keith Goldner and the numberFire predictions for the Super Bowl

On this episode of the Football Analytics Show, I’m joined by Keith Goldner, Chief Analyst at numberFire and Director of Analytics at FanDuel. He was also one of Forbes 30 under 30 for young innovators in sports.

On the show, we discuss the following:

  • How Keith broke into the sports world by watching a lot of video
  • The basics behind expected points in evaluating football players and teams
  • The numberFire predictions for the Super Bowl between New England and Atlanta
  • How two models can differ on Atlanta’s pass defense
  • Keith’s perspective on the surprising success of his alma mater Northwestern in basketball

We also have some fun at the end with Keith’s favorite book, meal, etc.

To listen to the show on iTunes, click here.

To listen on the site, click play.

Podcast: Super Bowl Preview of New England vs Atlanta

On this week’s show, I break down the Super Bowl match up between New England and Atlanta. Topics discussed include:

  • How the Super Bowl in 1991 between the Giants and Bills might forecast Bill Belichick’s strategy for this game
  • The success rate of this Atlanta Falcons offense, and how it stacks up against the best NFL offenses of the past 16 years
  • The one statistic, adjusted for strength of schedule, in which neither team excels
  • The relative importance of passing versus rushing for NFL playoff and Super Bowl teams

To listen on iTunes, click here.

To listen here, click on the play button.

Podcast: Rufus Peabody and the NFL Conference Championship Games

Rufus Peabody, ESPN’s predictive analytics expert who makes his living investing in the sports markets, joins me on the Football Analytics Show to discuss the NFL playoffs. He’s also half of the excellent Massey-Peabody rankings and predictions for football.

Among other things, we discuss the following.

  • The balance between a quantitative model and subjective adjustments
  • The one factor for Massey-Peabody that tips the balance against the spread in Green Bay at Atlanta
  • The new results on home field advantage that impacts the NFC title game
  • How our models differ on New England’s pass defense
  • Rufus’s book recommendation for those interested in randomness
  • The perils of small sample size in sports

You’ll find Rufus incredibly humble for someone who has had his success in sports analytics, and I’m lucky to consider him a friend.

To listen on iTunes, click here.

To listen on the site, click on the play button.

Podcast: Ben Alamar on the ESPN Football Power Index and NFL Divisional Playoffs

On this week’s episode of the Football Analytics Show, I’m honored to have Dr. Ben Alamar, Director of Sports Analytics at ESPN. We dig into a host of topics, which includes:

  • The NBA executive that opened the conversation with “I don’t believe this analytics stuff”
  • How FPI (Football Power Index) makes adjustments for quarterback injuries
  • The surprising team to which FPI assigns the second highest Super Bowl win probability
  • The hidden factor that gives Dallas an extra point in the FPI prediction against Green Bay
  • Spread predictions for all 4 Divisional Playoff games for FPI (not available anywhere on the internet to my knowledge) and my member numbers
  • Ben’s 3 tips for breaking into sports analytics

You can check out the work of ESPN analytics team by clicking here.

To listen to the show on iTunes, click here.

To listen here, click on the play button: