Your weekly digest of sports betting tips and news, delivered at 10am Eastern every Saturday.

Bud Elliott and closing line value – Headlines proclaim the winning record of someone’s bets. However, closing line value is a better metric with which to evaluate bets, especially with a small sample size from the current season.

Bud Elliott of 247Sports posts his college football bets for the next week every Sunday. For his week 7 predictions for sides and totals (last weekend’s games on October 16), the market moved in his favor on 30 of 36 bets. Only 6 games stayed at the same value or moved the opposite way.

Bud got closing line value on 83.3% of his bets, an excellent rate. While there is no more value in his week 8 bets, get notified of his Sunday column by following Bud on Twitter.

Injuries – Unless otherwise noted, these injuries were checked with ESPN NFL injuries and Don Best college football.

• Tampa Bay will be without four of its high-profile players against Chicago: TE Rob Gronkowski, WR Antonio Brown, LB Lavonte David and CB Richard Sherman.
• San Francisco QB Jimmy Garappolo will probably play as he recovers from a calf injury. The same cannot be said for QB Trey Lance, who is dealing with a knee injury.
• Kansas City WR Tyreek Hill returned to practice Friday and should be available.
• Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr. has continued to deal with a shoulder issue and didn’t play last week. It is uncertain whether he will play against Ohio State.
• Georgia QB J.T. Daniels is on the mend and practiced this week, per his head coach Kirby Smart. Stetson Bennett may still be starting though. Georgia is off this week and plays Florida next week.
• Dallas QB Dak Prescott has a strained calf, but the Cowboys are on a bye this week.

Dr. Bob NFL Model – The sports betting industry demands constant evolution. Otherwise, the market leaves you behind.

For over 30 years, Bob Stoll has been using analytics for football betting. On The Football Analytics Show podcast, he talks about how he recently hired a talented analyst to develop an NFL model based on air yards, QB pressures and play calling among other factors.

He also talked about his release on Saints at Seahawks; time stamps for all episodes of this podcast are available at The Power Rank.

For Prop’s Sake – The prop market can be a solid way to add to your bankroll if you believe a total will go over or under. Ben Brown at PFF put together these charts showing which props to target if a total goes over or under. This analysis suggests an edge on passing touchdowns and passing yards.

Two Roads Converge – On FanDuel Sportsbook, both the Titans and Chargers are +2200 to win the Super Bowl. However, one is coming off of an upset win against one of the best teams in football while the other suffered a lopsided defeat. Despite the same odds, these two teams have traveled different paths to this point.

The BetQL Daily crew says the dip is better than the bump, so the Chargers deserve more consideration at this point. BETLQL Daily streams on the Audacy app & Twitch 9am to 12pm ET Monday through Friday. Edward Egros appears on the the show every week.

An Unusual Request – Normally, NFL teams get a bye week after playing a game in London. However, Miami requested that they play after their trip across the pond so that they could have their bye later in the season.

A team has played the week after a game in London on four other occasions. Those teams went 2-2. While this is a small sample size, Miami is a 2.5-point underdog against Atlanta. The Power Rank sees value on Miami side so it’s possible the market is over adjusting for jet lag.

Math humor – From @deelomas on Twitter:

Picked up a hitch-hiker. Seemed like a nice guy. After a few miles he asked me if I wasn’t afraid he might be a serial killer? I told him that the odds of two serial killers being in the same car at the same time were extremely low…

Don’t think about conditional probability. Just laugh.

Data driven betting information

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Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet.

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Your weekly digest of sports betting news and tips, every Saturday morning at 10am Eastern.

Silver and Black Eye – A less important consequence of Jon Gruden’s resignation is how Las Vegas will perform this weekend. On Saturday morning, the Raiders are 4-point underdogs to the Broncos. While the Power Rank sees value backing the Raiders strictly by the data (Denver by 3.3 points), research has been conducted concerning how we, as humans, react to setbacks and tragedy.

The book This is Your Brain on Sports by Jon Wertheim and Sam Sommers chronicles several examples of how athletes experienced massive success during their first game after adversity. Psychologically, we are more resilient than we give ourselves credit for.

Grief and loss also are not linear; there are good days and bad days. There are great life lessons in this book, but pertaining to this game, it may be foolish to assume a jarring coaching change will only be debilitating.

The Weather for Cardinals at Browns – Fabian Sommer looked at how high winds in Cleveland on Sunday could impact the undefeated Cardinals at Browns. He liked Cleveland -3 when his article was posted on Thursday.

The strong wind puts more emphasis on the run game, and the Cardinals have some key injuries on offense (C Rodney Hudson, TE Maxx Williams) that will hurt them in the trenches. On defense, they have struggled against the run, which projects as a poor match up against Cleveland’s run offense.

Sommer’s analysis is almost the polar opposite of the team level analysis at The Power Rank. However, both land on the same side of this spread, as The Power Rank favors Cleveland by 4.3 points. The markets have moved to Cleveland -3.5 as of Saturday morning.

While there might no longer be value in this game, you can catch Sommer’s insights on the Matchbook podcast every Wednesday.

Injuries – Unless otherwise noted, this injury information was checked against ESPN’s injuries page.

• Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa will start against Jacksonville in London.
• Arizona QB Kyler Murray has an issue with his throwing shoulder, as he got attention on the sidelines during last week’s game against San Francisco. The undefeated Cardinals travel to Cleveland, and Arizona coach Kliff Kingsbury will miss the game due to a positive COVID-19 test.
• NY Giants QB Daniel Jones has passed the concussion protocol and will play Sunday.
• WFT QB Ryan Fitzpatrick could come back as soon as Week 7 (next weekend).
• Seattle QB Russell Wilson is on IR and will not return until Week 10 at the earliest. Geno Smith will start Sunday night at the Steelers.
• Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr. left the last game with a separated shoulder. His status is undetermined.
• Miami QB D’Eriq King will not play for the Hurricanes again this season after shoulder surgery.

Kelly Criterion – The Power Rank offers PhD backed analysis to professional and college football. What is trickier to do is suggest how much to bet on any one game (beyond simply looking at the difference between the predicted number and the markets).

One suggestion is the Kelly criterion. The theory is not to bet the same amount on every game, that some deserve a greater fraction of your bankroll than others. On the Circles Off podcast, they had a great conversation on this criterion, both in terms of when it is appropriate and when there may be shortcomings.

Dawg Defense – As FiveThirtyEight detailed, Georgia may boast the greatest defense college football has ever seen, at least based upon EPA/Play allowed so far. However, as many in the analytics community have detailed, who you face may matter more to diagnosing a defense than inherent talent.

By The Power Rank’s adjusted success rate, Georgia has yet to face an offense to crack the top 30. This week, they face a Kentucky offense that ranks 15th. Kentucky also ranks in the top 40 by EPA/Play on offense.

Teaching AP Calculus in Compton – George Chahrouri of PFF joined Ed Feng on The Football Analytics Show podcast to talk NFL analytics and betting. However, George first described getting 12 students to pass the AP Calculus test when he taught in Compton.

George also gave his thoughts on Jon Gruden as well as Chargers at Ravens, Cardinals at Browns, and Bengals at Lions. As always, you can find time stamps for each podcast episode at The Power Rank.

Alabama Needs an Ambulance – One week after getting cocky in the principal’s office, Alabama’s defense allows a 46.6% success rate to Texas A&M and their backup QB (41.0% college football average).

Alabama left College Station bruised and battered, as parodied by SEC Shorts.

Data driven betting information

This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

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Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet.

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Your weekly digest of sports betting tips and news, curated from the sharpest minds in the industry. Every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Player-Based NFL Models – Rob Pizzola made an appearance on The Football Analytics Show podcast with Ed Feng. While he analyzed various NFL teams like the Raiders and Chargers, the conversation about predictive models stood out.

Rob mostly uses player based models now, and he builds these based on statistics like yards and pressures instead of metrics with a layer of subjectivity, like PFF grades and Madden ratings. He has back tested the latter type of metrics and didn’t like the results.

“Excellent assessment of the teams discussed, combining analytics, observations and instinct.” Unsolicited feedback from @brooklynrichied on this episode with Rob Pizzola.

Injuries – Unless otherwise noted, these were double checked Saturday morning on ESPN for the NFL and USA Today for college football.

• Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield has been playing with torn cartilage in his left shoulder, according to a source. Mayfield is not listed on the injury report and is expected to play against the Chargers.
• Denver QB Teddy Bridgewater has a concussion but fully participated in Friday’s practice. He is listed as questionable; Drew Lock is available if Bridgewater cannot go.
• San Francisco QB Jimmy Garappolo will not play against Arizona because of a calf injury. Rookie Trey Lance will make his first start.
• Cincinnati CB Chidobe Awuzie will play against Green Bay, who will not have CB Jaire Alexander.
• Tennessee WR A.J. Brown is still recovering from a hamstring injury but should be available. Julio Jones, however, is listed as out as he was not spotted at practice on Friday.
• Tampa Bay CB Carlton Davis is on IR with a quad strain, further compounding the injuries the Buccaneers are experiencing in their secondary. However, CB Jamel Dean will be available after missing last week’s game.
• Georgia QB JT Daniels is not expected to play Saturday against Auburn with a lat injury. Stetson Bennett will start, despite what Head Coach Kirby Smart called a knee laceration that isn’t bothersome.

A Noticeable Change – John Sheeran, the Director of Trading at FanDuel Sportsbook, made an appearance on the Covering the Spread podcast this week. As usual, he offered the bookmaker perspective on a number of NFL games for Week 5.

This time, John talked about the specific number that FanDuel’s model gave for a game. For example, the model has Kansas City by 3.3 points over Buffalo on Sunday night, the reason that FanDuel moved to Kansas City -3 this week.

In previous appearances, John never mentioned a single number on a game. Decisions seemed to have been made based on the collective opinion of traders.

State of the Industry – As sports betting expands, so have the media outlets offering advice. The “barrier to entry” is low with podcasts, blogs, etc. It’s important for all bettors to be diligent about taking advice.

For instance, as Eric Eager and George Chahrouri explained in an episode of the PFF Forecast podcast, a lot of touts will suggest teasing games through the number zero. It’s a terrible strategy because very few NFL games end in a tie. So, don’t do it and thus, become more cynical of anyone who offers such advice.

Coaching Matters – During Edward Egros’ weekly appearance on BetQL daily, he discussed how he thinks the Bills/Chiefs game will play out. In betting games, one thing he and several others have discussed is how much weight to place on coaching acumen.

If a coach tends to show good decision-making during games, how many points is that worth? If a coach gets conservative on fourth down, how do you account for that? It’s not necessarily a concrete idea, but it’s worth the discussion.

Ben Baldwin has a chart showing which coaches give up the most win probability by kicking instead of going for it on 4th down.

London Calling – The first game in London since the pandemic is happening early Sunday morning (6:30a.m. for Edward, so please keep him in your thoughts) between the Jets and Falcons at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

The total is 45.5 per FanDuel Sportsbook. As Drew Dinsick said on the Deep Dive podcast, “if the game in Wembley is played, bet the over, you’ll get paid.” But, as he followed up quickly, this game is not in Wembley. The under may be the better play here.

SEC Shorts – Alabama and Georgia get called into the principal’s office for a stern conversation. However, the third attendee at the end really makes this video. SEC Shorts provides a humorous look at college football down south.

Sports betting tips and news, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Tampa Bay’s defense – Nothing sets me off more than a misleading statement, and a recent tweet claimed the Buccaneers had the worst pass defense in the history of the sport through three weeks because of how many yards they allowed.

In contrast, @greerreNFL showed how the opposing QB explains more of defensive performance than previous performance of the defense.

So far, Tampa Bay has seen Dak Prescott and Matthew Stafford. According to The Power Rank, they have the 25th worst passing success rate allowed, but get bumped up to 11th after schedule adjustments.

The opposition get easier, as Tampa Bay will face Mac Jones, the starter for the Dolphins, Jalen Hurts and the trio of mediocrity presented by the Bears.

Injuries – These were checked against ESPN’s NFL injuries page and USA Today for college football.

• Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson is listed as questionable against Denver but did return to practice Friday.
• NY Giant WRs Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton are out with hamstring injuries against New Orleans.
• Tennessee WRs Julio Jones and A.J. Brown are out with hamstring injuries against the New York Jets.
• Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson is questionable against Georgia after leaving the last game with a bruised knee.
• Notre Dame QB Jack Coan left last game with an injury but is expected to be active against Cincinnati.
• Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud missed last game with a shoulder injury but is expected to be active against Rutgers.

Marquise Brown – At Establish the Run, Evan Silva noted that Brown dropped three potential touchdown passes against Detroit last week. The video is jaw dropping.

However, there’s good news: he doesn’t lead the league in total drops (Najee Harris and Deebo Samuel). He remains Lamar Jackson’s favorite receiver as the team leader in targets (23), receptions (15), yards (235) and touchdowns (2), so he hasn’t entirely dropped the ball.

Baltimore will need a better version of Brown this week as they face a tough Denver secondary. The Broncos pass defense ranks 6th in The Power Rank’s passing success rate adjusted for schedule.

You can get 10% discount on a subscription to Establish the Run with the code TPR.

Rough Rookies – As Josh Hermsmeyer pointed out on FiveThirtyEight, the overall start for all rookie quarterbacks has been historically bad. The only win anyone of them has registered is Mac Jones… against another rookie in Zach Wilson.

That article posted Thursday morning. Later that evening, rookie Trevor Lawrence of Jacksonville covered and nearly won outright against Cincinnati. Per FanDuel Sportsbook, all of these first-year gunslingers are at least six-point underdogs except the Bears’ Justin Fields who is a three-point favorite (and he may not start if Andy Dalton is healthy enough).

Michigan’s Adjusted Metrics – In The Power Rank’s adjusted success rate, Michigan’s offense ranks 21st. They didn’t have the best offensive game against Rutgers last week, but the schedule adjustments account for the strong performance of Rutger’s defense (7th by adjusted success rate).

On defense, Michigan ranks 15th in adjusted success rate, a pleasant surprise for a unit that struggled last season. The schedule adjustments give Michigan a boost for shutting down Western Michigan, a team whose offense ranks 16th in adjusted success rate.

Don Best has sold – The expensive real time line service has a new owner. Endeavor Group Holdings, Inc. is purchasing OpenBet for $1.2 billion to combine their services with IMG Arena, a sports content company.

One conclusion one can make: sports betting is becoming even more mainstream.

Who Loves a Good Astronomical Total?? – Anyone remotely paying attention to college football should be able to answer the question: “Which game has the highest total this weekend?”

Ole Miss at Alabama is boasting a total of 80.5. If that number seems insane, Texas Tech vs Baylor had a total of 90.5 in 2015 per ESPN Stats & Information. The over hit then, but The Power Rank’s numbers are not as confident this latest one will too (prediction of 78.3 points for Ole Miss at Alabama).

Data driven betting information

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Texas A&M at Arkansas – At 7:53am Eastern time this morning, Circa bookmaker Matthew Metcalf tweeted about the lack of sharp action on this game. This prevented him from moving up his limit on Friday night.

Circa is considered a sharp sports book. As of release of this newsletter, Circa Colorado has Texas A&M -5.5 at Arkansas, an increase from -5 half an hour earlier.

Key Injuries – Unless noted otherwise, these injuries were double checked with ESPN’s NFL injuries page.

• Indianapolis QB Carson Wentz – didn’t practice Thursday because of injuries to both ankles, but returned Friday to practice and is listed as a game time decision
• Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa – out with a fractured rib
• New Orleans CB Marshon Lattimore – reported had surgery on his right hand but is expected to play against New England
• Tampa Bay DE Jason Pierre-Paul – out with hand and shoulder injuries
• Cincinnati WR Tee Higgins – doubtful with a shoulder injury
• Tampa Bay WR Antonio Brown – won’t play against the Los Angeles Rams as he is on the reserve/COVID-19 list

Handicapping the Saints – For another week, the New Orleans Saints will have had to practice, prepare and play away from home because of Hurricane Ida. The team has also been without several coaches because of COVID-19 protocols.

After a blowout loss to Carolina in Week 2, it’s possible the market has moved based upon all of these setbacks. At last check, the Saints are three-point underdogs per FanDuel Sportsbook and The Power Rank’s NFL Rankings have the Saints 19th, compared with the Patriots’ 11th ranking.

The Power Rank predicts New England to win by 3.1 points, which is consistent with the markets.

When to Adjust for Opponents – Some teams have it easier than others after two weeks. However, given the competitive balance of the NFL, how much does strength of schedule really matter at this point?

Of the seven undefeated teams, the Rams, Raiders, Cardinals, Buccaneers and Panthers have played at least one team with a preseason projected win total of greater than 8.5 (meaning they’re projected to have a winning record). However, none of them have faced two teams projected to have winning records. From this perspective, it’s possible those not on this list, the Broncos and 49ers, should be seen more skeptically.

Parity, Finally? – College football has a much stronger case for opponent-adjusted statistics and rankings, but through three weeks, per cfb-graphs.com, the SEC and Big Ten have new leaders atop their EPA60 Margin rankings: Georgia and Michigan, respectively.

The Bulldogs have a win over Clemson while the Wolverines have won every game by at least three touchdowns. The leaders of their respective conferences lost a lot of talent from last season, suggesting a larger possibility of new playoff representatives.

The Power Rank would make Michigan a 5.8 point underdog at Wisconsin next week, but this will change after the results of Week 4.

USC QB situation. Kedon Slovis came into the season as the starter and potential NFL draft pick. However, he gets hurt early against Washington State.

Jaxson Dart comes in and lights it up for 391 passing yards on 8.5 yards per attempt. USC destroys Washington State 45-14 in their first game after the firing of Clay Helton, and now there’s a QB controversy.

However, Dart hurts his knee in the game against Washington State and is out indefinitely due to surgery. Slovis is fine and will start against Oregon State.

How to Think – Data visualization is arguably the biggest way to translate data into useful information. But media literacy is important to pointing out when a presentation is misleading, as an article from Nightingale explains.

Even if you do not care about data visualization or media literacy, there are important lessons here about the importance of communicating context professionally and even personally.

Data driven betting information

These nuggets were part of The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

• Valuable
• Concise
• Entertaining

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”