Your weekly dose of sports betting news and tips, each Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Nebraska at Northwestern – On Tuesday, the spread got as high as Nebraska -13.5 for their match up in Dublin against Northwestern. Sharp bettors said to hell with The Power Rank’s numbers and supported Scott Frost and his attempts to revive this Cornhuskers program.

The markets have since shifted to Nebraska -11.5 as of Saturday morning (you can check the daily progression of the market on the free Unabated odds screen). This is much closer to prediction of Nebraska by 10.4 by The Power Rank’s public prediction.

To get predictions for all college football games this season, check out the public predictions page at The Power Rank.

Worst NFL Record – Here’s a fun way to start your weekend: making money off of the misery of others!!! Who will have the worst record in the NFL? There seems to be a consensus among sports books that Houston should be the favorite.

However, The Power Rank’s member rankings actually have the second-favorite in Atlanta as the weakest team in the NFL. The Falcons also have a slightly tougher schedule having to face Tampa Bay twice, the Rams and the AFC North, while the Texans get the weaker NFC East.

The evolution of the Kansas City offense – On The Football Analytics Show, NFL bettor Fabian Sommer broke down how the offense of the Chiefs changed last season.

As defenses played two deep safeties to take away the deep pass, the offense went to shorter passes. During the second half of the season, the Chiefs had the lowest average depth of target (ADOT) but second highest yards after catch. This evolution helped them finish first in The Power Rank’s adjusted passing success rate.

Despite the loss of WR Tyreek Hill, Fabian thinks the Kansas City offense will excel in 2022. He also broke down coaching changes at three NFL teams and two win totals he likes in an excellent episode of The Football Analytics Show.

MLB Injuries – One of the bigger factors that make betting futures so volatile is predicting injuries. It’s foolish to assume the full health of any team. At the same time, predicting injuries is quite the challenge.

I wrote about some things to think about for FOX Sports when it comes health in October. Those factors include average age of the roster, injury history (a prior injury implies an increased odds of getting hurt again) and, specifically with pitchers, average velocity.

These factors point to why the Phillies and Guardians may have betting value, simply because they could be the healthiest in October.

Big 12 Futures – The Power Five conference that has the most uncertainty is the Big 12. On FanDuel, the Big 12 favorite has the longest odds among all favorites (Oklahoma at +200). The Sooners have a new head coach, new transfer quarterback and questions concerning its offensive line.

Kelley Ford has put together some outstanding visualizations representing expectations for season win totals. You see why he has OU as the team to beat in the Big 12 and also breakdowns for every other conference.

U.S. Open – The final tennis Grand Slam event of the year begins Monday. With Novak Djokovic’s absence due to his vaccination status, the men’s draw has opened up considerably. Defending champion Daniil Medvedev is the favorite (+230 on FanDuel) but Tennis Abstract lists Carlos Alcaraz as having the highest Elo rating among those competing (+500 on FanDuel).

On the women’s side, this tournament is Iga Swiatek’s to lose. The world’s #1 player leads the WTA Tour in return games won at 52.1% and has victories on this surface at Doha, Indian Wells and Miami. By the way, Serena Williams is 50-1 if you’re feeling nostalgic.

The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals – NBA betting legend Haralabob Voulgaris tweeted the following about Ed Feng’s recent curated summary of the best podcast interviews:

Pretty good read for those interested in sports betting. https://t.co/EdcUAPvIYU

— Haralabos Voulgaris (@haralabob) August 24, 2022

In addition to Voulgaris, the article looks at the following pro sports bettors:

• AbnormallyDist
• Alan Boston
• Rufus Peabody

The article digs into how professionals originate, view closing line value and get down.

Data driven betting information

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

• Valuable
• Concise
• Entertaining

Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”

 

 

 

Your weekly dose of sports betting tips and news, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Arkansas win total – Sam Pittman has performed a miracle in Fayetteville. He inherited a program with a 2-10 record in 2019 and went 9-4 last season. In addition, Arkansas gets QB KJ Jefferson back this season.

However, Arkansas loses a ton of talent on defense. Pittman will primarily rely on transfers to keep up their performance on this side of the ball.

In The Power Rank’s college football win total predictions, Arkansas projects for 6.0 wins. Life is difficult in the SEC West, a division in which all seven teams rank in the top 30 of The Power Rank. This suggests under 7.5 wins for the Razorbacks.

Top down vs bottom up – On an episode of The Football Analytics Show, Captain Jack Andrews, founder of Unabated, compared and contrasted these two approaches. However, he ended the segment with some advice: use both.

As an example, he talked about two different ways to bet the NFL:

• To bet spreads, look for when sharp sports books move, and then bet at the recreational books slow to follow this move. This is the top down, steam chasing approach.
• To bet player props, develop your own model for tight ends. This prop market is easier to beat, and books will take reasonable sized bets.

With two different profitable ways of betting, you not only win more money but smooth out the variance in your earnings. Captain Jack also discussed the tools at Unabated, book making and how exchanges work in an excellent episode of The Football Analytics Show.

NFL Preseason Totals – After one week of riveting preseason games, we’ve found an unusual betting trend. As radio host Joe Ostrowski pointed out, not only are overs 14-3 coming into this week, most totals cleared the mark by more than a touchdown and several were by double-digits.

There may not be one overarching reason why. Offenses are still running vanilla plays, and it does not seem like starters are playing significantly more than they normally do. It could also be small sample size.

But, sports books are adjusting. Of the 12 games to be played in the second week of the preseason, four have a total of at least 40. Proceed cautiously.

Daniel Jones Hype – At least in my universe, it seems like another expert I trust is expressing optimism for Giants quarterback Daniel Jones. Whether it’s JJ Zachariason on The Football Analytics Show podcast or Josh Hermsmeyer on FiveThirtyEight, having some of the braintrust behind Buffalo’s offensive revolution joining the G-Men seems to be reason for an uptick. After all, they have nowhere to go but up.

However, before placing overs on any Jones props, the Giants’ backup is veteran Tyrod Taylor, who does have some experience running play action (on play action plays from 2019-2021, Taylor has a higher completion percentage over expected than Jones but a lower EPA/dropback). In a way, Brian Daboll does have a rip cord.

American League Rookie of the Year – It seemed like Seattle outfielder Julio Rodriguez was going to run away with this award. He’s about to lead the Mariners to their first postseason appearance since the George W. Bush Administration, nearly won the Home Run Derby and is dangerously close to finishing with 25 home runs this season.

However, as I wrote for FOX Sports this week, there’s a case to be made Baltimore catcher Adley Rutschman. He could do enough in these finals weeks to snag the award away from Rodriguez. Simply looking at his odds shorten substantially since the All-Star Break is a sign the market thinks this wunderkind has a chance.

SEC humor – “Please wait for me to call the Music City Bowl prospects boarding group. Thank you.” SEC Shorts brings the laughs with their latest video on SEC teams boarding for the 2022 season.

WNBA Playoffs – There’s a case for nearly every underdog in every WNBA playoff series this year. Aside from New York upsetting Chicago Wednesday night, Dallas has found an offensive spark retooling its starting lineup, Washington finally has Elena Delle Donne back, etc.

But, just like other levels of basketball, Dean Oliver’s Four Factors are just as relevant: shooting, rebounds, turnovers and free throw rate. Using this approach, there may be value betting on Connecticut to win the championship (+300 on FanDuel, an increase in win probability from +360), followed by the Sky even though they’re trailing in their best-of-three series (+600, an increase in probability from 700).

Data driven betting information

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

• Valuable
• Concise
• Entertaining

Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”

 

 

 

Your weekly dose of sports betting tips and news, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

College football predictions – The Power Rank predictions are based data from previous seasons and the current markets. Here is a sample of the predictions available to members.

• Nebraska will beat Northwestern by 9.6 points on the road. Both of these teams had 3-9 records last season. However, Nebraska went an astonishing 0-7 in one score games. Record in one score games tends to regress to the mean of .500.
• Ohio State will beat Notre Dame by 13.5 points at home. New Fighting Irish coach Marcus Freeman jumps straight into the fire with a trip to Columbus. At least his defense returns stars like DE Isaiah Foskey and CB Cam Hart, and this unit will need to play well against an explosive Buckeyes offense.
• Georgia will beat Oregon by 17.4 points at home. New Oregon coach Dan Lanning also jumps into the fire and faces his former defense at Georgia. At least the Bulldogs lost five defensive players to the 1st round of the NFL draft. However, Georgia QB Stetson Bennett gets his top three receivers back from last season.

This season, The Power Rank will also post public predictions for every college football game. Look for details next week.

NFL Preseason News – Congratulations to the Baltimore Ravens for extending the NFL’s longest preseason winning streak to 21 games! It might be a record we may never see broken, like Cal Ripken Jr.’s consecutive games played or Secretariat’s 31-length victory at the Belmont.

Aside from that streak, it’s hard to keep up with trends and news for NFL Preseason games, which might be more imperative for betting than the regular season. Fortunately, PFF dug through coach’s quotes, beat reporter notes, etc. and posted the findings to make you a more informed bettor.

4th best college football team – When ESPN’s Bill Connelly joined The Football Analytics Show, he noted the same gap between the 3rd and 4th team in his SP+ rankings (subscription required) and the 4th and 23rd teams. 20 teams are in contention to be fourth behind Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia.

Bill discussed the strengths and weakness of a few contenders:

• Michigan – The offense has two legit quarterbacks, but the defense needs to replace two elite pass rushers.
• Clemson – The defense is amazing, but the offense is praying that regression bumps them back up to program average.
• Utah – The offense surged when QB Cam Rising took over, but they need playmakers to make big plays on offense.

Bill also talked about dark horse Heisman candidates, college football win totals and the Bundesliga on his yearly appearance The Football Analytics Show.

Importance of Bullpens – One of the earlier sports analytics projects I ever had was identifying the most important variables for predicting winners of MLB postseason games. Even way back then, I found bullpen success to be one of those factors.

The Basewinner podcast agreed. On a recent episode of this show about sabermetrics and betting, the guys broke down what their data suggest as the top bullpens in baseball.

Their approach is different in that they weigh context, meaning striking out elite hitters is worth more than striking out the worst lineup in baseball. According to their rankings, these top three bullpens may provide betting value this postseason: Seattle, Atlanta and Cleveland.

Sharp sports books – Sick of getting limited at sports books because you’re winning? According to Captain Jack Andrews of Unabated, life should get better this fall.

Jack sees more sharp books coming online this fall than recreational, kick the sharps out books. Already, Caesars has gotten the reputation for not limiting sharp bettors. Clearly, Halle Berry and J.B. Smoove would not have lent their services to a book that limits sharps. Do you see that talent at square books? No? Case closed.

Life Advice from a Statistician – Regular readers and listeners of Dr. Ed Feng know about his background as a statistician and how he incorporated those skills into sports analytics and the betting space. But, many of the lessons learned through statistical analysis go far beyond crunching numbers.

PhD candidate Kareem Carr composed a Twitter thread detailing these lessons including: good rules fail often, information isn’t free and huge amounts of biased information is often worse than no information at all.

Support The Football Analytics Show – The podcast is launching a Patreon for listeners to support the show. These kind people get the ever lasting thanks of host Ed Feng, as well as an extra solo episode every month. This month’s premium episode quantifies home and rest advantage in football.

The first 20 supporters get an extra bonus, so check out the Patreon when it launches at 6pm Eastern on Sunday, August 14.

To make sure you get notified, either check out the podcast at that time or sign up for The Power Rank’s sports betting email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

• Valuable
• Concise
• Entertaining

Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”

 

 

 

Your weekly dose of sports betting tips and news, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Juan Soto – The San Diego Padres made the biggest splash at the MLB Trade Deadline, acquiring arguably the greatest young hitter since Mike Trout.

Combine that move with adding infielder Brandon Drury, first baseman Josh Bell and closer extraordinaire Josh Hader, and you have a ballclub that’s made the biggest move in the futures markets. The Padres moved from +1000 to +400 to win the N.L. pennant and from +2200 to +1000 to win the World Series (FOX Bet).

Even with the acquisitions, power metrics still say the Los Angeles Dodgers have the best roster in the National League. But, on Covering the Spread, I explained why the Atlanta Braves are still a value play.

Betting on First-Inning Runs – Maybe you want to bet on baseball but don’t want to watch a full game. NRFI (no runs first inning) and YRFI (yes runs first inning) could be more of your jam, where you simply bet on if any runs will be scored in the first frame.

I wrote a general guide to first inning bets, and bettor Jared Smith has also assembled some outstanding resources to help you take the plunge, notably how ballclubs and pitchers have faired in first innings this season.

Premier League Futures – The new season of EPL is already underway, and with it, a number of opportunities to enter the futures markets.

A fun one is the top goalscorer. Last season, per understat.com, among qualifiers, Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah led the way in both expected goals and expected goals per 90 minutes. He has the second-shortest odds on FanDuel at +470 behind Erling Haaland, the young Norwegian who joined Manchester City this off season.

However, if you’re looking for someone who vastly underperformed his xG, Harry Kane finished 3.69 xG short of his actual goals scored. Kane has the third best odds +550.

Pass Rush – Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt led the NFL with 23 sacks last season. However, as Ed Feng explained on a solo episode of The Football Analytics Show, sacks are not that predictive from season to season.

Instead, he suggests looking at pressures, the sum of sacks, hits and hurries. PFF has the data to track pressure rate, or pressures divided by pass rush snaps.

In 2021, Watt had a pressure rate of 14.9%, very impressive compared to the NFL average of 10.3% for edge rushers. However, Von Miller had a pressure rate of 15.2% for two teams in 2021. The pass rush abilities of Miller are one reason Buffalo is the Super Bowl favorite (+600 at Circa).

Detroit Lions – Fabian Somner isn’t buying the hype. He believes the Lions will struggle in the secondary, and these PFF passing grades for QB Jared Goff don’t impress him (out of 100):

• 2019: 72.5
• 2020: 71.6
• 2021: 61.7

He also notes that offensive guru Sean McVay was calling the plays those first two seasons. Fabian doesn’t see these Lions contending for the playoffs.

On his appearance on the Deep Dive podcast, Fabian also talked about the NFL stat that has replaced DVOA with bettors and many other betting topics.

Stefon Diggs – Is he still an elite receiver? Diggs had fewer receptions and yards last season than in 2020. In two playoff games, he had only 10 targets. Instead, Gabriel Davis had a monster 8 reception, 201 yard game at Kansas City.

However, JJ Zachariason of Late Round Fantasy Football believes in Diggs. He has shown all the attributes of an elite receiver, and Buffalo’s offense should keep their pass heavy tendencies even without OC Brian Daboll. JJ’s fantasy draft guide had Diggs ahead of CeeDee Lamb and Davante Adams.

On The Football Analytics Show, JJ also discussed how his NFL player projection model works, how to use regression to your advantage, and the importance of supply and demand in fantasy football drafts.

Money in College Football – Many in college football are complaining about money infiltrating the sport through Name, Image and Likeness agreements players are making with companies willing to pay them for advertising. But, as the old saying goes, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes.”

Fans have complained for a long time about money ruining college football. College football editor Matt Brown found a newspaper article from 100 years ago about Baton Rouge residents complaining LSU was paying its new football coach too much.

Data driven betting information

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

• Valuable
• Concise
• Entertaining

Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”

 

 

 

We’re back with your weekly dose of sports betting tips and news, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

NFL market rankings – One component of The Power Rank’s NFL model comes from market win totals. Each team gets a rating which is consistent with the market win total and the team’s schedule.

For 2022, here are the top 5 teams (the rating gives an expected margin of victory against an average NFL team).

1. Buffalo, 6.8
2. Kansas City, 6.1
3. Tampa Bay, 6.0
4. Los Angeles Rams, 4.9
5. Green Bay, 4.4

Tampa Bay signed veteran wide receiver Julio Jones, and the markets liked this move. Compared to the beginning of July, the rating for the Bucs has risen 0.6 points.

Based on this model, Tampa Bay is a 1.5 point favorite at Dallas week 1. Predictions for the first two weeks of the season are available to members of The Power Rank.

NFL season player props – From the 2021 season, Connor Allen analyzed 243 season long NFL player prop (Passing Yards, Rushing Yards, Receiving Touchdowns, etc). He found that the under hit in two of every three bets (66.7%). The hit rate for the under was even higher in categories like rushing touchdowns.

The sample size is small, so you should not blindly bet the under based on this data. The analysis does suggest that injuries play a big role in the outcome of these bets.

Cy Young – If you’re looking for projections for who will win the Cy Young, you may have stumbled upon ESPN’s Cy Young Predictor. However, its projections do not match with odds-on favorites.

For instance, while Miami’s Sandy Alcantara has been a sizable favorite for weeks, ESPN says the likeliest winner is Los Angeles Dodger Tony Gonsolin.

Their model comes from Bill James and Rob Neyer, who are obviously two of the foremost sabermetricians in the universe. However, this model does not come close to matching the markets.

One approach that seems more predictive is from Tom Tango and charted by Baseball Musings. If you don’t want to bet on the favorites, this model suggests value in Chicago White Sox hurler Dylan Cease and Atlanta’s Max Fried.

NFL Betting Tools – Even if you aren’t betting on NFL Preseason games beginning next week, you will want to have tools at your disposal for finding the best prices.

NFL analyst Robby Greer will have you prepared. His site includes the standard odds calculator that provides a payout and an implied probability based on odds and money wagered.

But, if you click the > button, you also get a Cover Probability calculator and a Hold Calculator. The former gives you expected value for your line compared with the market’s line, and the latter gives you the hold (book’s profit margin per money wagered) based upon the odds of each side.

MLB Trade Deadline – Is it weird to be refreshing Twitter more frequently than usual this weekend and having several alarms set in advance of 6:00pm Tuesday’s MLB Trade Deadline? If so, nobody asked you anyway.

Former Kansas City outfielder Andrew Benintendi was dealt to the Yankees this week and already their odds to win the World Series shortened from 4/1 to +350 (FOX Bet). Friday night, Jeff Passan reported Luis Castillo is leaving Cincinnati for Seattle. It has not affected their pennant or World Series odds.

When charting other big names that will likely be uprooted, a couple of ballclubs that look to be active include the Dodgers, Padres and Cardinals.

New players do not guarantee anything, but value is lost once news breaks, so plan accordingly and be obsessed like me.

Breaking into sports analytics – While he was working on his Ph.D. in neuroscience, Nick Wan dabbled with sports data. One day, Justin Wolfers of the New York Times messaged him about his work on Arizona State.

Nick had looked into whether the fans impacted opposing free throw shooters. This story eventually landed on the front page of the newspaper.

While this work didn’t directly lead to a job in sports, the experience gave Nick the confidence to seek out these jobs. A team like the Cincinnati Reds wanted to hire analytics folks with a broad background, and now Nick works as their Director of Analytics.

On a recent episode of The Football Analytics Show, Nick talked about many aspects of analytics, including working as one of two data scientists for a Fortune 500 company.

Learning from History – One book I’ve been reading this summer is Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, a study on what happens when empires and nations rise and fall.

Author Ray Dalio listed several determinants for a country’s overall health. Among them is the ability for that country’s population to learn history. As Dalio put it: “Learning from one’s own experiences is not adequate because… many of the most important lessons don’t come in one’s lifetime” (p. 72).

I believe this advice is also salient in sports betting. Crafting a process and learning from mistakes are important, but you should not do this alone. Study others. Your experiences are few compared with the many bettors who have done it for years.

For starters, check out:

• Alan Boston, long time pro college basketball bettor, on home court.
• Rufus Peabody, professional sports bettor, on wind in MLB stadiums.

Data driven betting information

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

• Valuable
• Concise
• Entertaining

Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet.

If you sign up, I’ll send you my Top 5 Sports Betting Podcast Episodes, an education for your ears.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”