Your weekly dose of sports betting tips and news, each Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Betscope MLB – Colin Davy created Betscope for you to find the best markets based on your beliefs. The tool started with the NBA and has moved on to baseball.

Don’t have any beliefs? Don’t run your own calculations? Use the markets.

On Friday, Circa sports book had an implied win probability of 61.6% for the New York Yankees at the Chicago White Sox. Betscope lets you find the best markets based on this win probability.

Based on Circa, Betscope suggested a 4% edge on New York Yankees -2.5, (+162 on FanDuel). The Bronx Bombers hit four home runs to win 10-4 and cover two and a half runs against the White Sox.

NFL Schedules – One of the more infuriating analyses of NFL schedules is determining which teams have the toughest slates based on last year’s winning percentages. Predicting future success has much more to do with the new season’s personnel, play design, innovation, etc.

While we already knew who will play whom before NFL Schedule Day, what matters when betting futures is rest advantage. For example, Detroit has an advantage when they travel to Dallas during week 7. The Lions are coming off a bye but Dallas plays at Philadelphia the week before.

NFL Data Scientist Tom Bliss charted the rest advantage based on the schedule of 32 teams, and those with the most advantageous schedules are Detroit, Carolina and Dallas. The worst are New England, Arizona and Green Bay.

NHL Playoffs – If it seems like the first round in the Stanley Cup Playoffs has not been competitive, you are not alone. Through Thursday, the average margin of victory has been 2.95 goals. Per ESPN, that margin would be the largest ever in first round NHL playoff history.

Also, the average total has been 6.63, which is historically higher than what’s expected in the playoffs. Part of that trend is because goalies are pulled earlier in games. This post explains why teams are pulling the goalie earlier.

WNBA – The early season usually brings its uncertainties with any league. However, the WNBA presents even more challenges this season because of key players. For example,

• Elena Delle Donne of the Washington Mystics missed last Sunday’s game against the Minnesota Lynx. After two back surgeries in 2019, Della Donne opted out of the 2020 season and only played three games in 2021.
• Breanna Stewart of the Seattle Storm missed Wednesday’s game against Phoenix Mercury and is day to day. Stewart missed the post season in 2021 because of surgery on her left Achilles.

These teams will look much different later this season based on the health of these stars.

Correlations in golf – On an episode of the Establish the Run podcast, Rufus Peabody talked about his golf calculations for betting and DFS. Host Adam Levitan asked him about correlations in the performance of players.

Rufus said that weather certainly caused correlated outcomes. For example, high winds tend to lead to higher scores. However, he also suggested that he didn’t find any correlation when two golfers get paired together, although he did joke about how a Bryson DeChambeau and Brooks Koepka pairing might be the exception.

Rufus also described the level of detail that he considers in his golf calculations in a great episode of Establish the Run.

Exercising the Brain – You practice a sport to prepare for as many unusual outcomes as possible. If you’re an NFL front office, why not do the same thing with the draft?

As Benjamin Robinson tweeted, the Cleveland Browns ran draft simulations so they could be prepared for potential trades, surprise picks, etc. This is the essence of game theory: studying different outcomes based on how others behave.

Twitter Enhancements – Don’t worry, this nugget has nothing to do with Elon Musk. One of the less powerful aspects of Twitter is its search bar. Sorting through useless information used to be the way of the social medium before discovering what the search was intended for.

Thankfully, there are ways to make Twitter searches much better, as this thread detailed.

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While the primary emphasis is NFL and college football, the newsletter covers golf and baseball during the off season.

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Your weekly dose of sports betting tips and news, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Ranking NBA Talent – “Who is currently the best player in the NBA?” is both a simple question and a daunting exercise. Analytical and conventional approaches have attacked answering it in multiple ways. The one set of rankings that seems to be the most trusted and accurate is called DARKO.

DARKO, or Daily Adjusted and Regressed Kalman Optimized projections, is an attempt to be forward-looking to determine who will play the most important roles for their teams, largely based upon box score and tracking data. As it currently stands, Milwaukee big man Giannis Antetokounmpo is #1 in DARKO, followed by Philadelphia standout Joel Embiid and Boston forward Jayson Tatum.

While Boston led the NBA in several defensive metrics throughout the regular-season, Milwaukee simply having Antetokounmpo is why the Celtics have never been heavy favorites to win that playoff series.

Kentucky Derby – Any elaborate bet should include the favorite. As the Courier-Journal has pointed out, the last nine post-time favorites have all finished fourth or better, and they have often won outright.

Zandon should be the favorite but Epicenter is not far behind (3-1 vs 7-2 odds, respectively). Two other horses with a chance to capture the first jewel of the Triple Crown were trained by controversial figure Bob Baffert: Messier and Taiba.

NFL Draft Grades – Let’s suppose you’re a Pats fan, and you’re looking at the post draft analysis on ESPN. Draft expert Mel Kiper Jr. gives New England a C+, tied for worst among 32 teams. For example, he sees OG Cole Strange from Chattanooga as a reach at the end of the first round.

However, it doesn’t matter.

Benjamin Robinson looked at a variety of draft grades over seven years, and asked how well they predicted the future performance of the players. He used the Approximate Value by Pro Football Reference to evaluate players.

Robinson found no statistical relationship between draft grades and the AV of a team’s draft class. All hope is not lost for Strange though. Robinson developed a more robust linear model that suggests that players drafted by New England tend to overachieve.

MLB predictions – The Mets have surged out of the gate with a 19-9 record and +32 run differential. In addition, they will have Max Scherzer take the mound against Philadelphia.

The Power Rank’s MLB predictions give the Mets a 58.0% win probability over the Phillies. These predictions, which now incorporate data from the current season, are available around 10pm Eastern the night before games.

The markets opened with the Mets at -110 on Friday night, but have moved to -146 at FanDuel (59.3% break even probability).

Stanley Cup Playoffs – Currently, the Colorado Avalanche are still sizable favorites to hoist the cup next month, more for being well-rounded than necessarily having the best offense, defense or goalkeeping.

However, if you aren’t building your own models to try and beat the market, Micah Blake McCurdy tweets daily probabilities for playoff teams to win it all. Even if you aren’t betting on hockey these playoffs, the data visualization he puts together is swanky (technical term).

Sweet Rides – How would allowing athletes to make money off of their name, image and likeness affect college football? In one way, it’s given fans something unusual to talk about during the offseason.

Take Texas running back Bijan Robinson, who just signed an endorsement deal with Lamborghini of Austin. Arguably no one will have a better NIL deal. At least Longhorn football won something lately.

DraftKings stock price – A month ago, Jason Robins, the CEO of DraftKings, issued a stern warning for those who sold DraftKings stock.

If you sold #DKNG today, just be aware that my team and I are on a mission to make you regret that decision more than any other decision you’ve ever made in your life

— Jason Robins (@JasonDRobins) March 9, 2022

The stock price of DraftKings was $17.38 when Robbins sent this tweet. The price closed at $13.15 at the close of the markets on Friday, May 6, a 24% decrease.

It’s not just DraftKings, as stocks have been down ever since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Perhaps the lesson is that executives should be cautious about making proclamations when non sequitur events happen.

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Welcome to the 2022 NFL draft edition. This 7-Nugget column usually appears on Saturday at 10am Eastern.

The top 5 picks of the NFL draft – This list is based on two predictors. First, the set of sharp mock drafts with a history of accuracy curated by The Power Rank. Second, the NFL draft betting markets on FanDuel.

1. Jacksonville, DE Travon Walker – The Georgia edge rusher was the underdog to Aiden Hutchinson as recently as Sunday, April 24. At -450, he now seems almost sure to go #1.
2. Detroit, DE Aiden Hutchinson – While the markets moved towards Kayvon Thibodeaux on Wednesday night, the markets and sharp mocks now both lean towards the Michigan edge rusher to the Lions.
3. Houston, CB Derek Stingley Jr. – This is the pick at which chaos begins to reign. On Tuesday, the markets moved sharply towards Stingley to Houston, and a few sharp mocks published on Thursday agreed. However, OT Ikem Ekwonu could very well go here.
4. New York Jets, CB Sauce Gardner – This is another very difficult prediction for a team with many needs. Gardner edges out Ekwonu in the sharp mock drafts.
5. New York Giants, OT Charles Cross – While the sharp mocks are split among the top three offensive tackles, the markets have Cross as a big favorite (+175).

With the latest updated information, Oregon DE Kayvon Thibodeaux doesn’t seem likely to crack the top five. This suggests value in over 4.5 in Thibodeaux’s draft position (+115 at BetMGM).

Malik Willis – The Liberty quarterback shines in terms of arm strength and athleticism, two obvious traits to anyone who watches his play or performance at the NFL combine. As of Thursday morning, Willis is the favorite as the first QB drafted (-200 at FanDuel).

However, Matt Waldman, creator of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, doesn’t have Willis as his top QB or even in the top 5. Through his film study, Waldman sees major problems with his decision making. The team that drafts the Liberty QB should view him as a project, not an immediate starter.

On an episode of The Football Analytics Show, Waldman also discussed the relationship between football and improvisation music as well as winning versus skill development. A must listen for anyone who seeks a deeper understanding of football.

Mexico Open – Jon Rahm is a massive favorite for this week’s PGA Tour event south of the border. However, betting involves finding value; no one golfer is going to be a shoo-in and have both a 50% implied probability and a 50% model probability to win a specific tournament.

Before the first groups teed off, Data Golf gave Rahm a 16.3% chance to win. But, a payout of +430 (FanDuel) does not provide value. Instead, Aaron Wise at 3.8% is proportionally closer to +2400 and has the second-highest probability to win. He’s also top 25 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, which is important given the course plays nearly 7,500 yards.

NBA Injuries – This list is double checked with ESPN NBA injuries.

• Phoenix guard Devin Booker reportedly will miss Game 6 against New Orleans but could be available for Game 7 if necessary.
• Toronto guard Fred VanVleet is reportedly doubtful for Game 6 with a hip injury.
• Golden State forward Andre Iguodala has a neck injury and will reportedly be reevaluated in one week.
• Philadelphia guard Matisse Thybulle will be unavailable to play Thursday night in Toronto as he is unvaccinated.

Meaning of a Sweep – The only first round NBA playoff series to end in a sweep was Boston’s over Brooklyn. As a result, the Celtics are the favorites to win the Eastern Conference even though they are not the top seed.

Logically it makes sense to win a series in as few games as possible to avoid injury and exhaustion, but is it required for a champion to have a sweep en route to the title? In the last 15 years, eight champions had at least one sweep during their playoff run.

It may not have happened in the first round, but more than 50% of the time there was at least one 4-0 result. When it comes to Boston, preserving energy is helpful, but they are facing a well-rested Milwaukee team in the second round. Miami has an easier draw with either Philadelphia or Toronto, with that series needing at least six games.

Benches-Clearing Brawl – A skirmish broke out during Wednesday’s baseball game between the New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals.

Throughout the series, eight different batters were hit by pitches. Then, when Yoan Lopez threw one a little too close to Nolan Arenado, both dugouts cleared. In fact, players from the bullpen came ready to fight.

One even gave us an excellent display on how to scale a wall with ease.

pic.twitter.com/rRqIbyYVh9

— KD got 1st round swept lmfao (@MPsMP4s) April 27, 2022

Making a Super Bowl run – On the Pardon My Take podcast, Daniel Jeremiah of the NFL Network was asked whether the Saints would draft a QB in the first round.

Jeremiah replied that the Saints feel good about their team because they have beat Tampa Bay with Tom Brady four straight times in the regular season. By obtaining a tackle and a receiver, the Saints feel like they can make a deep playoff run.

Really?! With the two headed monster of Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton in the QB room, the Saints are 44-1 to win the Super Bowl, tied with Philadelphia for 20th best in the NFL (FanDuel).

Data driven betting information

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

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While the primary emphasis is the NFL and college football, this newsletter covers golf and MLB during the off season.

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Your weekly dose of sports betting tips and news, each Saturday at 10am Eastern.

NBA Preseason – Why bring up meaningless games when we’re in the playoffs? It turns out, preseason games are not meaningless.

Kostya Medvedovsky, the creator of DARKO Projections, discovered that both preseason records and net ratings (the team’s point differential per 100 possessions) are predictive for the regular season results and beyond. This idea could also help with betting futures.

For this preseason, teams with undefeated records include Golden State, Chicago and Dallas. As for net rating, the top three are the Mavericks, Bulls and Suns, with the Warriors finishing fifth.

There are two postscripts: with the Devin Booker injury, the value for the Warriors winning the Western Conference has been squeezed out (+120 on FanDuel while Phoenix is +280).

Also, the predictive value of preseason results has also been uncovered in other sports. The highest run differentials posted by Texas and the Los Angeles Angels during Spring Training might have value in the futures market.

Over 4.5 cornerbacks in the 1st round – Cornerback is a critical position in the NFL, and the 2022 draft offers a number of top prospects. (The number after each prospect is the expected draft position according to Grinding the Mocks, a wisdom of crowds predictor).

• Sauce Gardner, Cincinnati, 6.5
• Derek Stingley, LSU, 11.4
• Trent McDuffie, Washington, 17.6
• Andrew Booth, Clemson, 24.8
• Kyler Gordon, Washington, 32.5
• Kaiir Elam, Florida, 33.7

On an episode of Covering the Spread, Ben Brown of PFF talked about how he likes over 4.5 cornerbacks in the first round (+120 at DraftKings). In addition, 70% of sharp mocks collected by The Power Rank has at least five cornerbacks going in the first round.

The top NFL draft pick – Recently, Aiden Hutchinson’s odds to be the first pick of the 2022 NFL draft dropped from -250 to -200 on DraftKings. Drew Dinsick, co-host of NBC’s Bet the Edge podcast, explained why on a recent episode of The Football Analytics Show.

Dinsick explained that three parts of the Jacksonville brain trust have differing opinions:

• Defensive coaches want Aiden Hutchinson
• GM Trent Balke wants Travon Walker
• Coach Doug Pederson wants an offensive tackle (Evan Neal or Ikem Ekwonu)

Walker is now +190 to be the first pick (34.5% break even probability).

Dinsick also talked about his NBA modeling and a new approach to basketball totals on this recent episode of The Football Analytics Show.

NBA Playoff Injuries – Here are some key injury news and notes:

• Phoenix guard Devin Booker will reportedly miss 2-3 weeks with a Grade 1 hamstring strain.
• Boston center Robert Williams III is expected to return on a minutes restriction for Game 3 against Brooklyn.
• Brooklyn point guard Ben Simmons is expected to make his season debut for Game 4 against Boston.
• Dallas guard Luka Doncic is expected to be a game-time decision for Saturday’s Game 4 at Utah.
• Milwaukee forward Khris Middleton to miss the remainder of the Chicago series with a sprained MCL.
• Toronto forward Scottie Barnes is doubtful for Game 4 against Philadelphia with an ankle injury.

The It factor for NFL quarterbacks – The media often talks about the intangibles for a future NFL quarterback. They debate which player has that It factor.

Matt Waldman, creator of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, has been scouting college quarterbacks for 17 years. He has a definition of It: Integrated Technique.

On a recent episode of the Matt Waldman’s RSP Cast, he described three aspects of the game a QB must understand to have integrated technique:

• The routes receivers are running
• Favorable and unfavorable leverage with coverage
• Game management based on down, distance and scoreboard

He then made an analogy that relates this It factor to improv music.

Break Up the Mets – As of Friday, the best record in the National League belongs to the New York Mets. They also rank second in run differential in all of Major League Baseball (trailing only the Los Angeles Dodgers).

Perhaps what’s more surprising is they’ve done it without their ace pitcher Jacob deGrom, who is scheduled to have another MRI Monday. The Mets pitching staff currently leads the majors in K/9 (10.3), SIERA (2.73) and xwOBA (.289). Then again, having Max Scherzer as your de facto ace, while deGrom recovers, helps.

MLB Newsletter – We are grateful to have a small piece of real estate in your inbox every Saturday morning. We also do not want to overwhelm you with emails (this isn’t a Slack channel, we can restrain our communication).

However, one newsletter to consider adding to your inbox is the MLB Morning Lineup. Not only does it have all of the biggest news and notes from the day before, it embraces sabermetric research.

For instance, this week included the ten nastiest new pitches of the season. Watch out for Nick Martinez’s changeup!

Data driven betting information

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

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While the emphasis is the NFL and college football, emails during the off season also cover golf and MLB.

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Your weekly dose of sports betting tips and news, each Saturday at 10am Eastern.

SEC players selected in the 1st round – Dr. Eric Eager of PFF made an appearance on The Football Analytics Show podcast to talk about betting the NFL draft. While Dr. Eager has a Ph.D. in applied math, he takes a less quantitative approach with the draft.

For example, he put together a market based mock draft. Instead of informed guessing, this mock draft puts OT Ikem Ekwonu at 3rd because he’s the betting favorite at that position over OT Evan Neal.

Based on this market analysis, Dr. Eager likes over 10.5 SEC players to get selected in the first round of the 2022 NFL draft (up to a price of -150). This is consistent with Grinding the Mocks, an aggregator of mock drafts by Benjamin Robinson. As of Friday, April 15, this wisdom of crowds tool has 12 SEC players in the first round with another four SEC players in the top 50.

A Lack of Run Support – Betting trends are made to be broken, and nearly all of them deserve context.

Taking the under in every MLB game this season has hit approximately 60% of the time. However, as Dave Tuley pointed out, last Saturday, unders went 13-1-1, largely swaying the overall win rate; if you take out that day, totals are almost evenly split.

It is worth noting the overall slow start for MLB offenses, scoring 4.24 runs per game through Thursday, unlike the 4.53 runs a contest we saw last season (which is roughly average).

NBA Injuries – Here are the key injuries before the start of the playoffs:

• Golden State point guard Stephen Curry could be on a minutes restriction if he does play Game 1 versus Denver.
• Dallas superstar guard Luka Doncic will reportedly miss Game 1 versus Utah with a calf injury.
• Memphis guard Ja Morant is active after missing time with knee soreness.
• Boston center Robert Williams is expected to miss at least the first round with a knee injury.
• Brooklyn point guard/power forward Ben Simmons hopes to be ready by Game 4 of the Nets’ first round series.
• Heat forward P.J. Tucker will be ready for the playoffs despite a calf setback.

Hottest NBA Teams Entering the Playoffs – Wins and losses explain only so much, but point differential tend to be more predictive, no matter the sport. However, recency bias is something to be careful with.

While teams playing well recently could mean they have figured out their systems and roles, Milwaukee’s point different over the last two weeks of the regular season ranked 15th in the NBA. Still, as assembled by Cleaning the Glass, here are the hottest teams over the last two weeks according to point differential:

• Los Angeles Clippers +18.4 (Paul George had just returned)
• Dallas +14.4 (again Luka Doncic is reportedly out for Game 1)
• Boston +13.8
• Atlanta +10.3
• Miami +10.3
• Utah +7.8
• Philadelphia +5.7

Curated wisdom of crowds – Matthew Freedman obsesses over the NFL draft. As an example, he listens to podcasts at double or triple the speed to soak up information.

However, his primary tool for betting the NFL draft is his curated list of mock drafters with a track record of success. Last year on the Covering the Spread podcast, he divulged Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com as one of these sharp mock drafters.

You can find Freedman’s NFL draft information both on his recent appearance on The Football Analytics Show and his mock draft at FantasyPros.

Top wide receiver in the draft – JJ Zachariason doesn’t only look at analytics for fantasy football. While he runs the numbers in projecting how college players will perform in the NFL, he also seeks out different opinions.

While most episodes of The Late-Round Podcast are solo episodes, JJ did an interview with Alfredo Brown, a football analyst that primarily focuses on film study. Brown discussed the traits that make Jameson Williams of Alabama his top wide receiver in this draft, and how an injury in the national championship game shouldn’t hurt his draft stock.

Williams’s draft stock is rising according to the data on Grinding the Mocks (look under Prospect Trends).

Life as a Masters Champion – The world’s number-one golfer in Scottie Scheffler proved his ranking by running away with the green jacket last weekend. While his professional life may never be the same, life at home seems consistent, as Golf Digest pointed out:

Sorry Meredith, the jacket speaks for itself. 😂 pic.twitter.com/GTY9MroXp5

— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) April 14, 2022

Data driven betting information

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

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Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet.

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