THE POWER RANK

Ensemble predictions for week 9 of college football

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ncaaf2014Last week, I wrote about how neither Florida State nor Notre Dame would make the college football playoff. One piece of evidence was that Florida State had less than 50% chance to win at Miami by my numbers.

People called bullshit on that one. A commenter said:

If your numbers say Miami over FSU, you ain’t got good rithm

I think he meant algorithm.

It’s easy to understand why people doubt numbers that predict Miami over Florida State. Miami has lost to Louisville, Nebraska, and Georgia Tech. They start a true freshman, Brad Kaaya, at quarterback.

Breaking down Miami into offense and defense

However, The Power Rank looks deeper at college football teams by breaking them down into offense and defense. It starts with a statistic like yards per play, an efficiency metric for football mostly immune from the randomness of turnovers. My algorithm adjusts yards per play for strength of schedule to rank offense and defense.

Before last night, Miami had the 12th and 14th ranked offense and defense respectively. While Kaaya will probably make freshman mistakes, he has weapons like Duke Johnson to break off big plays. The defense is solid against both the pass and rush.

These adjusted yards per play numbers also predict a point spread for any game. Before last night, yards per play predicted a 11.7 point win for Miami at Virginia Tech.

That margin was probably too large. This season, I’ve been working with Mike Craig to aggregate many different predictions for a better ensemble prediction. In addition to yards per play, we use calculations based margin of victory and data from the markets. The public predictions on The Power Rank is just one member of the ensemble.

This ensemble predicted a 1 point win for Miami over Virginia Tech. The line opened favoring Virginia Tech by 3 points before ending with Miami as a 2 point favorite.

Miami thrashed Virginia Tech 30-6 last night. The Hurricanes gained 6.61 yards per play compared with 4.44 for Virginia Tech. Miami led 24-0 at half without the benefit of any Virginia Tech turnovers.

It doesn’t always work out so nicely in the random world of college football. But yards per play has an amazing power to identify undervalued teams at this point in the season.

Let’s at some other ensemble predictions for this weekend.

Mississippi at LSU

Mississippi will beat LSU by 3.3. The teams will score 47.5 points.

Life is never easy in the SEC West. Ole Miss is undefeated with a huge win over Alabama. They attempt to continue their fairy tale season at LSU on Saturday.

Even though LSU has lost twice already, they are still solid on both sides of the ball. The Tigers rank 35th and 32nd on offense and defense respectively in my adjusted yards per play.

Ole Miss has a lights out defense ranked 2nd. On offense, they have struggled to run the ball, so they rely on the arm of quarterback Bo Wallace. Their passing game ranks 14th in adjusted yards per attempt.

Grantland asked me to predict the Heisman winner for their mid-season predictions article. These predictions make me uncomfortable because my analytics do not directly apply.

I picked Wallace to win the Heisman. He has a great defense to help win games, and he has increased his completion percentage 66% this season. (The blond hair probably helps as well.) If my prediction has any chance of coming true, Wallace must have a Heisman moment at LSU to win the game. Perhaps a leap over a defender for a go ahead touchdown?

Ohio State at Penn State

Ohio State will beat Penn State by 5.8. The teams will score 50.4 points.

Matt Hinton of Grantland had a nice article on Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett. The freshman has been impressive recently, and some think he’s better than the injured Braxton Miller. With only six games played for Barrett, that’s absurd.

It’s easy to get excited about a small sample size, especially when two of Ohio State’s opponents were Rutgers and Cincinnati. Remember when Texas A&M freshman Kenny Hill destroyed South Carolina in their first game and jumped to the front of Heisman lists? Hill has stumbled against the elite defenses in the SEC West.

Barrett faces a Penn State defense ranked 16th, a unit which will make it difficult for Barrett to put up the same numbers he did against Cincinnati and Rutgers. Ohio State probably wins this game at Happy Valley, but it won’t be easy.

Oregon at California

Oregon will beat California by 11.8. The teams will score 75.8 points.

Offensive linemen usually don’t get much credit. However, tackle Jake Fisher got props from CBS writer Rob Rang for jump starting Oregon’s offense when he returned from injury against UCLA.

I didn’t see that game, but Oregon’s offensive line looked terrible against Arizona. And I like it when the big guys up front get credit.

Oregon should take care of business against an improved California team.

Michigan at Michigan State

Michigan State will beat Michigan by 14.4. The teams will score 45.8 points.

For Michigan to capitalize on their 15% chance to beat Michigan State, quarterback Devin Gardner must put on the superman cape that he lost after last year’s Notre Dame game.

Sample of other ensemble predictions

In the following, the first number gives the point spread for the home team; a negative number implies a victory for the home team. The second number gives total points scored in the game.

UNLV at Utah State: -20.7, 54.5.

Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan: 18.1, 62.4.

Texas Tech at TCU: -20.8, 68.3.

Central Michigan at Buffalo: 3.3, 56.7.

Akron at Ball State: 2.6, 50.9.

UCLA at Colorado: 18.9, 65.1.

West Virginia at Oklahoma State: 2.5, 64.5.

Vanderbilt at Missouri: -22.3, 45.0.

Maryland at Wisconsin: -7.9, 55.7.

Louisiana Tech at Southern Miss: 6.8, 52.1.

Temple at UCF: -11.7, 51.2.

UAB at Arkansas: -17.2, 59.1.

Massachusetts at Toledo: -17.6, 68.8.

Texas State at Louisiana Monroe: -2.1, 49.6.

Minnesota at Illinois: 2.1, 56.0.

UTEP at UTSA: -19.1, 52.2.

Texas at Kansas State: -10.4, 44.6.

Kent State at Miami (OH): -9.1, 51.9.

Troy at South Alabama: -16.0, 54.1.

Members of The Power Rank have access to these ensemble predictions and my yards per play calculations. To learn more, sign up for the free email newsletter. Just enter your best email and click “Sign up now.”








Why neither Florida State nor Notre Dame will make the 2014 college football playoff

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The Power Rank's top 10 as of Oct 16th, which doesn't include Florida State or Notre Dame.

The Power Rank’s top 10 as of Oct 16th, which doesn’t include Florida State or Notre Dame.

You expect the winner of the Notre Dame and Florida State to make the first college football playoff. It might be the easiest prediction of the season given their unblemished records and the recent track record of these programs.

Florida State won the national title last season and returns Heisman winning QB Jameis Winston. Only an incredible run of wins by Mississippi State has knocked them from first in the AP poll.

Notre Dame played in the national championship game two years ago. Now Everett Golson, the quarterback that led the Fighting Irish during their championship run, has returned after getting removed from school for year. Notre Dame seems like an elite team again.

The past few season has brought a return to former greatness for both programs. This visual shows a 30 year history of Florida State.

Florida State

The bottom panel shows a rating, or an expected margin of victory against an average team from The Power Rank’s algorithm.

Former Florida State Bobby Bowden took the program to incredible heights before regressing in the new millennium. Current coach Jimbo Fisher had the Seminoles on an upward trajectory before making a huge leap last season.

Notre Dame has also enjoyed some terrific seasons over the last 30 years.

Notre Dame

Former coach Lou Holtz capture the national championship in 1988 and had amazing teams in 1989 and 1993. The program went in decline after his departure in 1996 except for a one year blip in 2005 (Charlie Weis’s first year with Tyrone Willingham’s players). Current coach Brian Kelly had the Fighting Irish on the rise until a slight drop last season.

Despite this return to greatness for these programs, neither Notre Dame nor Florida State will make the college football playoff this season. Let me explain.

Florida State

No, my pessimism towards Florida State isn’t based on the high likelihood Jameis Winston gets kicked off the team. The news cycle has brought us constant stories about his problems over a rape case and whether he took money for signing autographs.

Florida State’s offense has been good this season. The Power Rank takes yards per play and adjusts for strength of schedule through a proprietary algorithm to rank offense and defense. These rankings put the Seminole offense at 6th in the nation. They might even be better, as this calculation includes the Clemson game in which Winston didn’t play.

Florida State’s problems are on defense. In the past two season, this unit has ranked in the top 5 by my adjusted yards per play. However, they have dropped to 35th this season.

There are many possible reasons for this decline. Florida State lost tackle Tim Jernigan and cornerback LaMarcus Joyner to the NFL draft. Coordinator Jeremy Pruitt left for Georgia, who pitched a shutout at Missouri this past weekend.

The numbers single out the pass defense, which ranks 51st by yards per pass attempt adjusted for schedule. Florida State can’t generate a pass rush as they have sacked the quarterback on 4.2% of pass attempts compared to a 6% FBS average.

To confirm these numbers, I watched the first half of Florida State’s game against Syracuse. The Seminoles only pressured the quarterback three times on 18 pass attempts. None of these pressures led to a sack, although one did result in an interception.

With this struggling defense, Florida State becomes vulnerable to a few of their conference foes. (Well, they were also vulnerable 2 seasons ago when they lost at North Carolina State.) My best predictions at The Power Rank come from aggregating a number of predictions based on stats such as margin of victory and yards per play.

These ensemble predictions make Florida State an underdog at Louisville (44% win probability) and Miami (38%). Louisville has the 2nd best defense in the nation, while Miami looks strong on both sides of the ball despite 3 losses already.

Notre Dame

The Everett Golson story has been heart warming. The kid makes a mistake and cheats on a test. Notre Dame finds out and kicks him out of school, causing him to miss the 2013 season. Then Golson comes back and has led the Fighting Irish to a 6-0 record this season.

However, the numbers suggest that Notre Dame’s offense is not any better than last season. With Tommy Rees at quarterback last season, Notre Dame ranked 23rd in yards per pass attempt adjusted for schedule. This season, Notre Dame ranks 22nd.

On both offense and defense, Notre Dame looks the same as last season if not slightly worse. In my numbers, their offense is ranked 35th after ending last season 28th. Their defense is ranked 31st after ending last season 28th. For comparison, one loss Alabama has the 11th and 7th ranked offense and defense respectively this season.

In addition, Notre Dame hasn’t played any quality teams except Stanford. They beat Stanford when converted a 4th and 11 for a go ahead touchdown when Stanford coach David Shaw inexplicably rushed 3 guys (no, this Stanford alum is not bitter. Not at all.). Notre Dame also won a strange 31-0 game against Michigan in which they had fewer total yards than Michigan.

Even if they beat Florida State, Notre Dame will find their remaining schedule difficult. My numbers have them as underdog at USC and Arizona State, two teams that have struggled this season. They also have a slim 51% win probability against Louisville at home.

Prediction

Notre Dame at Florida State should be a fantastic game. The environment will be electric, the offenses will score points.

The best predictions at The Power Rank come from aggregating a number of different predictions. In collaboration with Mike Craig, we use my numbers as well as data from the betting markets and other trusted rankings. This ensemble method predicts a 9 point win for Florida State, which implies a 25% win probability for Notre Dame.

However, these are not two of the best five teams in the nation. Florida State might sneak back into the top 5 if their defense returns their level of play over the last two seasons. The numbers suggest Notre Dame is a solid top 25 team but nothing more.

Expect neither Florida State nor Notre Dame to end up in college football’s first playoff.

Ensemble predictions for college football, week 6, 2014

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Over the last year, I’ve started aggregating many predictions to a single prediction. Research in diverse areas shows that this ensemble of predictions gives better predictions.

As the college football season continues, I’ve been working on ensemble game predictions for members of The Power Rank. These predictions aggregate not only my calculations but also other trusted sources. Some of these predictions use margin of victory while others use statistics such as yards per play and yards per pass attempt.

The predictions below also included totals (total points scored in the game). These calculations are a collaboration with Mike Craig, my partner in the college football prediction service.

Here are 3 interesting predictions on a terrific slate of games this Saturday.

Stanford at Notre Dame

Stanford will win by 4.1 points. Stanford and Notre Dame will score 43 points.

Stanford has struggled with mistakes in their two biggest games. They couldn’t punch the ball in the endzone against USC, losing by 3 on a 53 yard field goal. Washington returned a Stanford fumble for a touchdown last weekend, even though Stanford survived for the win in Seattle.

These mistakes have little affect yards per play statistics. Hence, Stanford looks better by these numbers. For example, yards per play predicts a 8 point road win over Notre Dame. This visual shows how Stanford matches up with Notre Dame by yards per play adjusted for schedule.

(In the visual, better defenses appear further to the right. This facilitates comparisons, as the unit further to the right is predicted to have an advantage.)

Screen shot 2014-10-03 at 2.35.32 PM

The ensemble likes Stanford to beat Notre Dame. No, there’s no personal bias in these numbers from this Stanford alum.

Nebraska at Michigan State

Michigan State will win by 4.1 points. Nebraska and Michigan State will score 57.5 points.

This Big Ten showdown features Nebraska’s 5th ranked offense against Michigan State’s usually strong defense.

Screen shot 2014-10-03 at 2.31.01 PM

The yards per play numbers in the visual use data from last season since rankings with only data from this season are volatile. For example, Michigan State had the 28th ranked defense yesterday, a low but potentially believable ranking for a defense that was elite last season.

Then Oregon’s offense has a terrible game against Arizona’s defense last night. Since Oregon played Michigan State earlier this season, Michigan State’s defense drops to 57th in rankings that only use this year’s data. With some input from last year’s games, a ranking of 26th seems more reasonable.

Ohio State at Maryland

Ohio State will win by 0.2 points (a 50-50 game). Ohio State and Maryland will score 59 points.

The predictions are all over the map for this game. Maryland looks the equal of Ohio State by yards per play. Both offenses have a slight edge, as shown in this visual.

Screen shot 2014-10-03 at 2.33.38 PM

Yards per play favors Maryland by 3 points. My model gives the home team 3 points, so this prediction says Ohio State and Maryland are equal teams.

However, the markets favor Ohio State by 8.5 points. Some of this advantage probably comes from the history and tradition of Ohio State. However, this spread also considers injuries. Maryland QB C.J. Brown is listed as questionable, and Maryland has suffered a rash of other injuries on both sides of the ball.

Become a member of The Power Rank

Members have access to all the ensemble predictions as well as interactive versions of these match up visuals. To learn more about my methods, sign up for my free email newsletter. Enter your email and click on “Sign up here.”








College football win totals for 2014

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ncaaf2014_preseason_rankHow many games will your team win this season?

Let’s estimate wins with The Power Rank’s preseason rankings. These rankings come from a regression model that considers team performance the previous four years, turnovers in each of these four years and returning starters for the current season.

While I developed this model before the 2013 season, I’ve gone back and calculated the rankings for each year since 2005. The earlier years have less data to consider, since I only uses numbers from seasons prior to the seasons of interest.

In the rankings, each team has a rating, and the difference in rating gives an expected margin of victory on a neutral site. To get a prediction for a home game, add 3 points for the home team.

The predictions of my preseason model pick 70.5% of game winners for the current year and 60.3% of bowl game winners. I’m still a bit surprised how well you can predict the season before any game has been played. College football programs have a history and tradition that set expectations. Alabama never drops to the level of Rice, or vice versa.

The predicted margin of victory translates into a win probability for each game, which you can see on the team pages. Assuming the randomness of one game has no effect on any other game, you can add these win probabilities to get expected wins for a team.

Below, I show the difference in this prediction (TPR) from the total posted at Pinnacle sports (Markets). Win totals for all teams are listed at the bottom of this post.

1. California, 1.74, 4.2 TPR, 2.5 Markets.
2. Kentucky, 1.72, 5.2 TPR, 3.5 Markets.
3. Virginia, 1.35, 4.8 TPR, 3.5 Markets.
4. Utah, 1.20, 5.7 TPR, 4.5 Markets.
5. Arkansas, 1.17, 5.7 TPR, 4.5 Markets.
6. Kansas, 1.13, 4.1 TPR, 3.0 Markets.
7. Illinois, 1.12, 5.6 TPR, 4.5 Markets.
8. Wake Forest, 1.10, 4.6 TPR, 3.5 Markets.
9. Iowa State, 1.08, 4.6 TPR, 3.5 Markets.
10. Purdue, 0.94, 4.4 TPR, 3.5 Markets.
11. Rutgers, 0.90, 5.4 TPR, 4.5 Markets.
12. West Virginia, 0.85, 5.3 TPR, 4.5 Markets.
13. Indiana, 0.69, 6.2 TPR, 5.5 Markets.
14. Boston College, 0.66, 5.7 TPR, 5.0 Markets.
15. North Carolina State, 0.48, 6.0 TPR, 5.5 Markets.
16. Nevada, 0.40, 6.4 TPR, 6.0 Markets.
17. Texas A&M, 0.39, 7.9 TPR, 7.5 Markets.
18. Washington State, 0.38, 5.9 TPR, 5.5 Markets.
19. UNLV, 0.20, 4.7 TPR, 4.5 Markets.
20. Michigan, 0.14, 7.6 TPR, 7.5 Markets.
21. Vanderbilt, 0.12, 6.1 TPR, 6.0 Markets.
22. Arizona, -0.00, 7.0 TPR, 7.0 Markets.
23. Stanford, -0.05, 8.5 TPR, 8.5 Markets.
24. Oregon State, -0.11, 6.9 TPR, 7.0 Markets.
25. TCU, -0.15, 7.9 TPR, 8.0 Markets.
26. Colorado, -0.26, 4.2 TPR, 4.5 Markets.
27. Oklahoma State, -0.35, 7.2 TPR, 7.5 Markets.
28. Mississippi State, -0.39, 7.1 TPR, 7.5 Markets.
29. Minnesota, -0.41, 6.1 TPR, 6.5 Markets.
30. Miami (FL), -0.44, 7.1 TPR, 7.5 Markets.
31. Virginia Tech, -0.46, 7.5 TPR, 8.0 Markets.
32. Georgia Tech, -0.47, 6.0 TPR, 6.5 Markets.
33. Pittsburgh, -0.51, 7.0 TPR, 7.5 Markets.
34. LSU, -0.54, 8.5 TPR, 9.0 Markets.
35. Texas Tech, -0.58, 5.9 TPR, 6.5 Markets.
36. Florida, -0.59, 6.9 TPR, 7.5 Markets.
37. Fresno State, -0.60, 6.9 TPR, 7.5 Markets.
38. Mississippi, -0.64, 6.9 TPR, 7.5 Markets.
39. Florida State, -0.72, 10.3 TPR, 11.0 Markets.
40. Arizona State, -0.73, 6.8 TPR, 7.5 Markets.
41. Missouri, -0.74, 6.8 TPR, 7.5 Markets.
42. Alabama, -0.80, 9.7 TPR, 10.5 Markets.
43. Colorado State, -0.81, 5.7 TPR, 6.5 Markets.
44. Kansas State, -0.82, 6.7 TPR, 7.5 Markets.
45. Brigham Young, -0.82, 8.2 TPR, 9.0 Markets.
46. USC, -0.85, 7.6 TPR, 8.5 Markets.
47. Tennessee, -0.89, 4.6 TPR, 5.5 Markets.
48. Maryland, -0.91, 5.6 TPR, 6.5 Markets.
49. Louisville, -0.91, 6.6 TPR, 7.5 Markets.
50. Northwestern, -1.00, 6.5 TPR, 7.5 Markets.
51. Penn State, -1.01, 6.5 TPR, 7.5 Markets.
52. Texas, -1.01, 7.0 TPR, 8.0 Markets.
53. Washington, -1.05, 7.9 TPR, 9.0 Markets.
54. Notre Dame, -1.06, 6.4 TPR, 7.5 Markets.
55. Clemson, -1.08, 7.4 TPR, 8.5 Markets.
56. Georgia, -1.20, 8.3 TPR, 9.5 Markets.
57. Nebraska, -1.28, 6.7 TPR, 8.0 Markets.
58. Wisconsin, -1.30, 8.2 TPR, 9.5 Markets.
59. Oregon, -1.33, 9.2 TPR, 10.5 Markets.
60. Duke, -1.34, 7.2 TPR, 8.5 Markets.
61. Iowa, -1.37, 7.1 TPR, 8.5 Markets.
62. Michigan State, -1.41, 8.1 TPR, 9.5 Markets.
63. South Carolina, -1.48, 8.0 TPR, 9.5 Markets.
64. North Carolina, -1.58, 6.9 TPR, 8.5 Markets.
65. Baylor, -1.77, 7.7 TPR, 9.5 Markets.
66. Utah State, -1.78, 7.7 TPR, 9.5 Markets.
67. Auburn, -1.80, 7.7 TPR, 9.5 Markets.
68. Boise State, -1.88, 8.1 TPR, 10.0 Markets.
69. Oklahoma, -1.90, 8.6 TPR, 10.5 Markets.
70. UCLA, -2.30, 7.2 TPR, 9.5 Markets.

Let’s first look some teams predicted to be overrated by The Power Rank.

Oklahoma

Every year, a team wins big in a bowl game and gets overrated the next preseason.

Two years ago, it was West Virginia after crushing Clemson in the Orange Bowl. Last season, it was Clemson, who beat LSU in the closing minutes in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.

This season, Oklahoma sits at 3rd in the preseason Coaches Poll after beating Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. The markets expect the Sooners to win 10.5 games.

I have all the respect in the world for Bob Stoops and his program. They are consistently a top 10 program, and my preseason rankings place Oklahoma 7th.

However, to win 11 games, they can only stumble once in a tough Big 12 conference. With games against TCU, Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma State, this seems unlikely at best.

UCLA

Everyone loves QB Brett Hundley and the program Jim Mora has built at UCLA. Moreover, they have 16 returning starters, tops in the Pac-12. The Bruins are 7th in the AP and Coaches preseason polls, and the markets expect 9.5 wins.

My preseason model is down on UCLA for two reasons. First, they have only had success recently. In 2011, they were barely an average FBS team by my rankings. My preseason model considers a 4 year window to evaluate program strength.

Second, UCLA was +10 in turnover margin last season. While this isn’t a remarkable total (Houston led the FBS with +25), the Bruins should not expect a similar total this season since turnover margin regresses to the mean.

Their schedule doesn’t do them any favors either. UCLA travels to Texas and Washington and also hosts Stanford and Oregon. My numbers have UCLA as an underdog in each of these games. If they lose 2 of these 4 and drop another one along the way, they’ll come under 9.5 wins.

Now let’s check out two teams underrated by the markets.

California

As a Stanford alum, I laughed when Cal hired Sonny Dykes. He had an incredible offense at Louisiana Tech but didn’t seem that concerned with defense. Dykes also doesn’t seem like the type of guy that will win recruiting battles on the West Coast.

Cal dropped off significantly last season in Dykes’ first year, posting a 1-11 record. He started a freshman QB and had significant departures on defense. The markets expect 2.5 wins this season.

However, Cal had bad turnover luck last season with a -15 turnover margin. The randomness of turnovers implies this margin will regress towards zero this season. Since my preseason model considers this bad luck from last season, Cal is ranked 69th, much higher than the 103rd they ended last season.

The markets expect 2.5 wins. However, Cal should beat Sacramento State and get a weak Colorado team at home. They only need one more win the rest of the way for that third win.

Kentucky

The Wildcats look like another team in which people look at their poor record from last season (2-10) and have low expectations for the current season. The markets expect 3.5 wins.

However, Kentucky has 16 returning starters, which places the Wildcats 68th in my preseason rankings. They should win games against Tennessee-Martin, Ohio and Louisiana Monroe. Moreover, my numbers expect them to beat either Tennessee or Vanderbilt.

Just in case they fall short and have 3 wins heading into their last game, they have a better than 1 in 3 chance of beating Louisville, a team that enjoyed quite a bit of turnover luck last season.

Win totals for all teams

Georgia State already has one win after their dramatic come from behind win over Abilene Christian last night.

1. Florida State, 10.28.
2. Alabama, 9.70.
3. Oregon, 9.17.
4. Oklahoma, 8.60.
5. Marshall, 8.54.
6. Northern Illinois, 8.50.
7. LSU, 8.46.
8. Stanford, 8.45.
9. Georgia, 8.30.
10. Wisconsin, 8.20.
11. Brigham Young, 8.18.
12. Houston, 8.17.
13. Boise State, 8.12.
14. Ohio State, 8.12.
15. Michigan State, 8.09.
16. South Carolina, 8.02.
17. UCF, 8.02.
18. Washington, 7.95.
19. Texas A&M, 7.89.
20. TCU, 7.85.
21. Baylor, 7.73.
22. Utah State, 7.72.
23. Auburn, 7.70.
24. Louisiana Lafayette, 7.70.
25. USC, 7.65.
26. Michigan, 7.64.
27. Toledo, 7.60.
28. Navy, 7.58.
29. Virginia Tech, 7.54.
30. Bowling Green, 7.49.
31. Georgia Southern, 7.45.
32. Clemson, 7.42.
33. Cincinnati, 7.28.
34. UCLA, 7.20.
35. Duke, 7.16.
36. Oklahoma State, 7.15.
37. Iowa, 7.13.
38. Mississippi State, 7.11.
39. Miami (FL), 7.06.
40. Arizona, 7.00.
41. Pittsburgh, 6.99.
42. Texas, 6.99.
43. Buffalo, 6.97.
44. North Carolina, 6.92.
45. Florida, 6.91.
46. Fresno State, 6.90.
47. Oregon State, 6.89.
48. Mississippi, 6.86.
49. Arkansas State, 6.82.
50. Arizona State, 6.77.
51. Missouri, 6.76.
52. Nebraska, 6.72.
53. Ball State, 6.71.
54. Kansas State, 6.68.
55. Louisville, 6.59.
56. Northwestern, 6.50.
57. Penn State, 6.49.
58. South Alabama, 6.47.
59. Western Kentucky, 6.46.
60. Notre Dame, 6.44.
61. Nevada, 6.40.
62. Troy, 6.25.
63. Indiana, 6.19.
64. Rice, 6.13.
65. Vanderbilt, 6.12.
66. UTSA, 6.10.
67. Minnesota, 6.09.
68. San Diego State, 6.08.
69. South Florida, 6.06.
70. Georgia Tech, 6.03.
71. Air Force, 6.00.
72. North Texas, 5.98.
73. North Carolina State, 5.98.
74. San Jose State, 5.96.
75. Texas Tech, 5.92.
76. Middle Tennessee State, 5.90.
77. Central Michigan, 5.90.
78. Washington State, 5.88.
79. Temple, 5.72.
80. Akron, 5.71.
81. Utah, 5.70.
82. Colorado State, 5.69.
83. Syracuse, 5.67.
84. Arkansas, 5.67.
85. Boston College, 5.66.
86. East Carolina, 5.64.
87. Ohio, 5.62.
88. Illinois, 5.62.
89. Maryland, 5.59.
90. Army, 5.57.
91. Memphis, 5.53.
92. Old Dominion, 5.51.
93. Tulsa, 5.50.
94. Rutgers, 5.40.
95. Louisiana Monroe, 5.40.
96. West Virginia, 5.35.
97. Western Michigan, 5.25.
98. Kentucky, 5.22.
99. UAB, 5.21.
100. Connecticut, 5.21.
101. Appalachian State, 5.19.
102. Hawaii, 5.18.
103. Florida Atlantic, 5.12.
104. Southern Miss, 4.98.
105. Louisiana Tech, 4.90.
106. Virginia, 4.85.
107. Wyoming, 4.79.
108. Kent State, 4.78.
109. SMU, 4.76.
110. UNLV, 4.70.
111. Tennessee, 4.61.
112. Wake Forest, 4.60.
113. Iowa State, 4.58.
114. Florida International, 4.54.
115. Purdue, 4.44.
116. Idaho, 4.42.
117. Texas State, 4.37.
118. UTEP, 4.37.
119. California, 4.24.
120. Colorado, 4.24.
121. Kansas, 4.13.
122. Tulane, 3.94.
123. New Mexico State, 3.77.
124. Massachusetts, 3.67.
125. Miami (OH), 3.64.
126. New Mexico, 3.32.
127. Eastern Michigan, 3.04.
128. Georgia State, 3.00.

Auburn preview for 2014 on Grantland

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winprob_ringI wrote an article on Grantland questioning the prospects of Auburn this season. The article made two points.

First, Auburn got lucky last season. They need a tipped hail mary to beat Georgia and beat Alabama on the return of a missed field goal for a touchdown.

Second, the Tigers have a wicked schedule this season. They play Georgia and South Carolina, two teams most think are the best in the SEC East. This explains their low win probability in the visual despite being 6th in my preseason rankings.

I thought Auburn fans would be ticked about the prediction. Instead, they got incensed about my calling them lucky last season.

Twitter showed us a range of responses. Some were thoughtful.

Others were not.

But this is why I love college football. Passionate fans can get pissed that I downgraded their team because of a few plays last season.

The article also has a visual of the top 15 teams in my preseason rankings.

To read the article, click here.