THE POWER RANK

  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
  • Log in

Ensemble predictions for college football, week 6, 2014

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Over the last year, I’ve started aggregating many predictions to a single prediction. Research in diverse areas shows that this ensemble of predictions gives better predictions.

As the college football season continues, I’ve been working on ensemble game predictions for members of The Power Rank. These predictions aggregate not only my calculations but also other trusted sources. Some of these predictions use margin of victory while others use statistics such as yards per play and yards per pass attempt.

The predictions below also included totals (total points scored in the game). These calculations are a collaboration with Mike Craig, my partner in the college football prediction service.

Here are 3 interesting predictions on a terrific slate of games this Saturday.

Stanford at Notre Dame

Stanford will win by 4.1 points. Stanford and Notre Dame will score 43 points.

Stanford has struggled with mistakes in their two biggest games. They couldn’t punch the ball in the endzone against USC, losing by 3 on a 53 yard field goal. Washington returned a Stanford fumble for a touchdown last weekend, even though Stanford survived for the win in Seattle.

These mistakes have little affect yards per play statistics. Hence, Stanford looks better by these numbers. For example, yards per play predicts a 8 point road win over Notre Dame. This visual shows how Stanford matches up with Notre Dame by yards per play adjusted for schedule.

(In the visual, better defenses appear further to the right. This facilitates comparisons, as the unit further to the right is predicted to have an advantage.)

Screen shot 2014-10-03 at 2.35.32 PM

The ensemble likes Stanford to beat Notre Dame. No, there’s no personal bias in these numbers from this Stanford alum.

Nebraska at Michigan State

Michigan State will win by 4.1 points. Nebraska and Michigan State will score 57.5 points.

This Big Ten showdown features Nebraska’s 5th ranked offense against Michigan State’s usually strong defense.

Screen shot 2014-10-03 at 2.31.01 PM

The yards per play numbers in the visual use data from last season since rankings with only data from this season are volatile. For example, Michigan State had the 28th ranked defense yesterday, a low but potentially believable ranking for a defense that was elite last season.

Then Oregon’s offense has a terrible game against Arizona’s defense last night. Since Oregon played Michigan State earlier this season, Michigan State’s defense drops to 57th in rankings that only use this year’s data. With some input from last year’s games, a ranking of 26th seems more reasonable.

Ohio State at Maryland

Ohio State will win by 0.2 points (a 50-50 game). Ohio State and Maryland will score 59 points.

The predictions are all over the map for this game. Maryland looks the equal of Ohio State by yards per play. Both offenses have a slight edge, as shown in this visual.

Screen shot 2014-10-03 at 2.33.38 PM

Yards per play favors Maryland by 3 points. My model gives the home team 3 points, so this prediction says Ohio State and Maryland are equal teams.

However, the markets favor Ohio State by 8.5 points. Some of this advantage probably comes from the history and tradition of Ohio State. However, this spread also considers injuries. Maryland QB C.J. Brown is listed as questionable, and Maryland has suffered a rash of other injuries on both sides of the ball.

Become a member of The Power Rank

Members have access to all the ensemble predictions as well as interactive versions of these match up visuals. To learn more about my methods, sign up for my free email newsletter. Enter your email and click on “Sign up here.”








Filed Under: College Football, College Football 2014, College Football Analytics, Football Analytics

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Data driven betting information

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.

To sign up for The Power Rank's email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"

Popular Articles

  • How to predict interceptions in the NFL
  • 5 insights from academic research on predicting world soccer/football matches
  • How to win your NCAA tournament pool
  • The ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics
  • Accurate football predictions with linear regression
  • The surprising truth about passing and rushing in the NFL
  • Football analytics resource guide
  • The Reason You Can’t Avoid The Curse of Small Sample Size
  • The essential guide to predictive CFB rankings
  • How computer rankings make you smarter about sports
  • How to win your college football bowl pool
  • Do you make these 3 mistakes with college football statistics?
  • The Top 10 Things to Know About The Power Rank’s Methods

Recent Articles

  • Members: Super Bowl game and prop analysis
  • 7-Nugget Saturday, January 28, 2023
  • Cincinnati at Kansas City, AFC Conference Championship Game
  • Podcast: Dr. Eric Eager on the NFL Conference Championships
  • Members: Football analysis for NFL Conference Championships

© 2023 The Power Rank Inc., All rights reserved.

About, Terms of Use, Privacy Policy

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.


These are the goals with every correspondence, which cover bets on the NFL and college football.


To sign up for The Power Rank's free email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"


No thanks, I'll make my predictions without data and analytics.

{"cookieName":"wBounce","isAggressive":false,"isSitewide":true,"hesitation":"","openAnimation":false,"exitAnimation":false,"timer":"","sensitivity":"","cookieExpire":"","cookieDomain":"","autoFire":"","isAnalyticsEnabled":true}
  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member