Alabama is not an elite team, and they were lucky to have made the playoff with three losses. They started the season getting destroyed 31-17 by a Florida State team that ended the season 5-7.

Alabama had a stretch during the season in which they made that game seem like a fluke. They beat Georgia and pulled away from a good Vanderbilt team.

Then Alabama faltered as they won close games at Missouri, vs South Carolina and at Auburn. They got destroyed by Georgia in the SEC championship game, and the playoff game at Oklahoma could have turned out different if not for a pick six gift from John Mateer.

Before the Georgia game in the SEC championship, Ty Simpson was the betting favorite as the first pick of the 2026 NFL draft over Fernando Mendoza on FanDuel. From watching the most recent Alabama game, he has the ability to make difficult, NFL caliber throws.

However, Simpson also misses on easy throws, which shows up in my numbers. At The Power Rank, I take a quarterback’s passing success rate and make my math adjustments for opposing defenses.

Simpson is expected to have a 46.8% passing success against an average FBS defense. While solid compared to the college football average of 40.7%, it is not nearly as great as the 54.3% of Mendoza.

Indiana is an elite team ranked 2nd behind only Ohio State in my member rankings. Mendoza won the Heisman with some critical throws in a close win over Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game. He is now the betting favorite as the first pick in the 2026 NFL draft.

I guess you could criticize Indiana for getting tested at Iowa and at Penn State. And maybe they might not be as focused after a huge win over Ohio State? Coach Curt Cignetti did address this in his remarks after the Big Ten championship game win.

My member numbers have Indiana by 11 in this game. Members got this analysis when the market had Indiana -6.5. However, I still like Indiana -7 for this New Years Day game.

Here are a few other predictions available to members of The Power Rank.

Georgia will beat Ole Miss by 4.2 points. The story of Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss is crazy. Check out my one minute video on why he has blown up this season.

Oregon will beat Texas Tech by 2.3 points. Texas Tech QB Behren Morton broke his leg in the season opener but has played through it. While he has practiced this month, he says he is 80-85% healthy.

Tampa Bay will beat Carolina by 4.9 points at home. Yes, one of these two mid teams will host an NFL playoff game.

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Last week, I made the case that Notre Dame is the most underrated team by the college football playoff rankings. The committee just can’t overlook two losses by four points to Miami and Texas A&M.

However, I could have also made the case for Oregon at 7th in the latest playoff committee rankings. Oregon has a loss to No. 2 Indiana and almost slipped up at Iowa. Otherwise, the Ducks have mostly dominated inferior Big Ten competition, the mark of a great team.

Oregon is third in my member college football rankings. They are solid on both sides of the ball in my yards per play (YPP) adjusted for opponents:

• 11th offense.
• 5th defense.

USC has the typical signature of a Lincoln Riley team: potent offense with a dud of a defense.

The USC offense ranks 2nd in my adjusted YPP. QB Jayden Maiava has been great, but he does face an elite Oregon pass defense (3rd in my adjusted yards per pass attempt). The strength of this pass defense is surprising given the complete turnover in the secondary from last season.

Despite not playing the past two games, freshman WR Dakorien Moore still leads Oregon in targets and has a solid 2.43 yards per route run. Even if he can’t play, Oregon’s offense should be able to run the ball with a rush offense ranked 3rd in my adjusted yards per carry. In those same calculations, USC’s defense ranks 80th.

My model predicts a total of 63.6 points in this game, which suggests value in over 59.5. However, I like the spread more than the over because of Oregon’s pass defense.

My model has Oregon by 12.4 points at home. Earlier this week, members of The Power Rank got this analysis while the market mostly had Oregon -9.5. Even though most books are at 10, there is still value in Oregon to cover.

Here is a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.

NFL: New England will beat Cincinnati by 5.7 points on the road. It seems like Joe Burrow might return for Cincinnati this week against a New England defense ranked 28th in my adjusted passing success rate.

CFB: Michigan will beat Maryland by 14.7 points on the road. Michigan QB Bryce Underwood was fantastic for three quarters against Northwestern. Then he threw two picks and relied on his offensive line to carry the offense to a 24-22 win. My most popular video on YouTube is on what I would make Ohio State at Michigan right now.

NFL: Los Angeles Rams will beat Tampa Bay by 5.3 points at home. The Rams have quietly been one of the best teams in the NFL, as they rank 5th on offense and 4th on defense in my adjusted yards per pass attempt. No one has said anything about Matt Stafford’s back in weeks.

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As Ohio State and Indiana snooze to the Big Ten championship game, Texas travels to Georgia for another monster SEC game. In terms of making the college football playoff, Georgia at 8-1 with only a loss to Alabama could potentially afford a loss. A two loss Texas team can not.

Texas QB Arch Manning has played better in the last two games. Against Mississippi State, he threw for 346 yards in leading Texas to a come from behind win. Manning’s 6.22 yards per pass attempt (YPPA) wasn’t too impressive (6.40 college football average), but he showed throwing accuracy in the second half missing from his previous games.

Manning followed up that performance with 328 passing yards against Vanderbilt two weeks ago. This time, his 9.94 YPPA was impressive. Now, Manning faces a Georgia defense that has been questionable against the pass (30th in my YPPA adjusted for opposing quarterbacks). Is this the formula for a Texas upset?

Probably not. First, Manning’s best performance came against a Vanderbilt pass defense ranked 87th in my adjusted YPPA. Georgia’s pass defense is having an off year ranked 30th in those same numbers.

Second, Georgia QB Gunner Stockton has been terrific as he leads the 12th ranked offense by my adjusted YPPA. This past week, he threw for 9.1 YPPA against Mississippi State, almost 50% more than Manning had against the same defense.

Stockton faces a tough Texas defense that ranks 9th in my success rate adjusted for opposing offenses with my proprietary algorithms. Safety Michael Taaffe returns for this game after missing the last two.

Even with a rest advantage for Texas off a bye week, my best number favors Georgia by 9.4. A market with Georgia as less than a touchdown favorite puts too much faith in Arch Manning in my opinion.

I sent this to members of The Power Rank with Georgia as a 6 point favorite. The market has moved, but there is still value in Georgia -6.5 against Texas.

Here is a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.

NFL. Philadelphia will beat Detroit by 3.6 points. I’m keeping an eye on the Detroit injury situation, as key starters like OT Penei Sewell, TE Sam LaPorta, S Kerby Joseph and CB Terrion Arnold have all missed parts of practice this week.

CFB. Michigan will beat Northwestern by 9.5 points at a neutral site (Wrigley Field). Michigan QB Bryce Underwood hasn’t been great the past two games against Purdue and Michigan State. Check out my minute video on the consequences of his performance.

NFL. Los Angeles Chargers will beat Jacksonville by 2.9 points on the road. The pass defense continues to excel under Chargers DC Jesse Minter. After adjusting passing success rate for opposing quarterbacks, the Chargers rank 3rd this season.

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