This is a sample of my member predictions that have picked the winner straight up in 73.4% of games this season (533-193). For comparison, the closing spread in the markets has a rate of 72.5%.

Michigan will beat TCU by 8.8 points – The market has moved from Michigan -9.5 at open to -7.5 now. While the public has overrated TCU this season, the markets have usually been spot on.

While USC QB Caleb Williams ran away with the Heisman, we did get a sense for the recency bias in the voting. TCU QB Max Duggan never had high market odds to win during the regular season. However, he ended up second in the voting after a heroic performance in a loss to Kansas State.

LSU will beat Purdue by 4.8 points – LSU QB Jayden Daniels was hobbled in the SEC championship game with an ankle injury. He is questionable for this game but has weeks to recover.

Purdue had a better success rate (45.2%) than Michigan (44.6%) in the Big Ten championship game.

Utah will beat Penn State by 0.2 points – Penn State had a sneaky good season. 

For example, despite a 44-31 loss to Ohio State, Penn State had more yards and a better success rate in that game. A -4 turnover margin doomed them in that game.

Texas will beat Washington by 3.1 points – Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. led the third best pass offense in the nation in my adjusted success rate. He will play in this game and next season for the Huskies.

Georgia Southern will beat Buffalo by 0.8 points – Georgia Southern had a huge win over Nebraska this season. However, Clay Helton’s team only managed a 3-5 Sun Belt record.

Georgia Southern should be favored against Buffalo, but it seems strange that they would get picked by 75% of people in pools on ESPN. This is an opportunity in your bowl pool.

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USC has stormed to their conference championship game on the shoulders of Caleb Williams. The quarterback has been electric down the stretch, as he strolled to three rushing touchdowns against a good Notre Dame defense.

Barring an awful performance against Utah in the Pac-12 Championship game, Williams will win the Heisman (-3000 at FanDuel). However, there are two reasons that USC is overrated despite the brilliance of Williams.

First, turnovers. The Trojans are +23 in turnovers this season. This is nine turnovers better than the next best teams in FBS football.

Randomness plays a huge role in turnovers, and USC will not continue to average almost two turnovers per game better than their opponent. And not surprisingly, these turnovers have helped them to their 11-1 record.

For example, UCLA looked like they had USC beat. Late in the fourth quarter, they had the ball down three, and UCLA had run up and down the field all game against USC.

On the move again, UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson threw a pick to end the game. USC was +3 in turnovers for the game against UCLA.

As another example, Notre Dame QB Drew Pyne fumbled deep in USC territory last week. Without this turnover, and maybe with a Notre Dame conversion on 4th and 1 at the USC 27 yard line early in the game, the outcome could have been different. Instead, USC cruised to an easy 38-27 win.

Second, USC has an atrocious defense. By my adjusted success rate, they rank 103rd in the nation.

USC came into the season with questions on defense, and new coach Lincoln Riley looked to transfers to fix the problem. It hasn’t worked. Russell Wilson is watching the USC defense to feel better about his season.

Both Utah and USC will bring an offense and defense to the Pac-12 championship game. The USC defense will by far be the worst unit on the field.

The markets have USC -2.5, but my member numbers like Utah to win outright. Could Caleb Williams make Utah’s defense look silly on the way to a win and cover? Maybe. But regression in turnovers and an awful defense suggest value on Utah +3, a number still available at some sports books as of Thursday.

Football betting with a PhD edge

This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter on Thursday, December 1, 2022 at 1pm Eastern.

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