Notre Dame isn’t off to the best start in 2022.

It was not surprising they lost their opener at Ohio State. They actually made it respectable, as the Fighting Irish covered the 17 points as an underdog.

It was surprising they lost at home to Marshall this past week. They were a 20.5 point favorite. Now, QB Tyler Buchner is out with a shoulder injury.

In college football, it’s a good idea to react to early season performances. Players and coaches change, and I have found that a predictive system that makes aggressive adjustments leads to more accurate predictions.

However, a predictive system can also overreact. This preseason, I had Notre Dame as 15 points better on a neutral field than California. Now, the markets favor Notre Dame by 11.5 points at home.

With Buchner out, Drew Pyne will take over at QB for Notre Dame. Both of these players competed for the job this off season. While Pyne doesn’t run the ball as well as Buchner, he should sustain the passing game.

This does not mean the passing game will be good. But the passing game wasn’t good under Buchner either. The pick six he threw against Marshall was worse than Nathaniel Hackett’s clock management.

Fine, it wasn’t worse than how Denver managed the last minute at Seattle on Monday night. However, a 38.7% passing success rate isn’t reminding anyone of Joe Burrow in 2019 either (40.4% college football average this season).

California is a program looking to break through in their sixth season under Justin Wilcox. While they have been good on defense under Wilcox, they only ranked 64th in my adjusted success rate in 2021. 

California is hoping to get better on offense with Purdue transfer Jake Plummer at QB. This season, they’ve had two not so impressive wins over UC Davis and UNLV. My metrics have adjusted them downwards by about the same amount as Notre Dame.

While I had Notre Dame overrated this preseason, that was mostly because the preseason AP poll had them at an absurd 5th in the nation. They should be a top 20 team.

Notre Dame was expected to have a strong defense. While this unit failed against Marshall, they did hold down Ohio State in the opener and should return to form at home against Cal.

My member numbers like Notre Dame by 18.1 points, and this suggests value in Notre Dame -11 at home against California.

Football betting with a PhD edge

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Virginia Tech is starting over. Last season, they agreed to part ways with coach Justin Fuente after some lopsided losses.

Former Penn State DC Brent Pry takes over, and he has some work to do. As Bill Connelly noted in his ACC preview, Virginia Tech’s recruiting has taken a dive. Fuente’s last two classes ranked 62nd and 45th.

Virginia Tech will take the field with QB Grant Wells, a transfer from Marshall. He inherits a run game that was decent last season.

To show this, consider success rate. For an offense, a play is a success if it gains the following fraction of yards towards the next first down:

• 50% on 1st down
• 70% on 2nd down
• 100% on 3rd, 4th down

Research by myself and others have shown this statistic to be more predictive than more typical stats like yards per play.

Last season, Virginia Tech was 47th in my rushing success rate, a quantity adjusted for opponents by my algorithms. However, Wells will have to improve a pass offense that was an awful 101st last season.

On Friday night, Virginia Tech starts the season with a no win situation: at Old Dominion. If they win, they are supposed to beat a Group of 5 opponent that just moved from Conference USA to the Sun Belt. If they lose as a 7.5 point road favorite, well, at least Nebraska would feel better about itself.

Old Dominion has had a turbulent few seasons. Ricky Rahne came over from Penn State in 2020 after serving as the offensive coordinator for James Franklin. He and Pry were on the same staff from 2016 through 2019. 

Rahne’s tenure got off to an awful start:

• Old Dominion canceled the 2020 season due to COVID 
• Old Dominion started an abysmal 1-6 in 2021 with no wins over FBS opponents.

Then, Old Dominion made the switch to QB Hayden Wolff midway through last season. They won five straight games to make a bowl, a remarkable achievement for Rahne.

During this win streak, Old Dominion had a better passing success rate in only two of five games. Wolff hit on some explosive plays, and research shows that explosive plays have a huge random element. 

While Wolff still needs to prove himself, the offense has a high ceiling. Old Dominion should be motivated at home against a Power 5 opponent. 

My best numbers, which are available to members of The Power Rank, like Virginia Tech by 4.6 points on the road. This suggests value in Old Dominion +7.5. Don’t be surprised if this spread lands south of a touchdown by kick off.

Football betting with a PhD edge

This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter at 3pm Eastern on Wednesday, August 31, 2022. The markets have moved towards Old Dominion as of Thursday morning.

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