Your weekly does of sports betting tips, news and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
Minnesota at Miami, NFL Week 6 – QB Tua Tagovailoa will not play, and Miami is most likely ultra cautious with back up Teddy Bridgewater, as he also has a concussion. While this means rookie Skylar Thompson probably plays, professional bettor Rob Pizzola thinks the market has made too much of an adjustment.
The Dolphins are a blitz heavy team, and Kirk Cousins has fared poorly against the blitz this season (see the Eagles MNF game in Week 2). The Vikings are overvalued after having played the depleted Lions and Saints, and then an awful Bears squad.
Rob likes Miami +3 despite the quarterback situation. Check out all of his amazing content on the Circles Off podcast, part of The Hammer sports betting platform.
Arkansas State at Southern Miss – While these teams have similar records, professional bettor Eddie Walls points out they have played vastly different strengths of schedule.
Arkansas State has 2-4 record, but they have a win over FCS Grambling State and Louisiana Monroe (116th in my member college football rankings). They have lost to 109th ranked Old Dominion.
Southern Miss has a 2-3 record, but they have a win over Tulane (69th) and have faced Miami (44th), Troy (72nd) and Liberty (76th). Eddie sees value in Southern Miss -4.5 at home against Arkansas State.
Follow professional bettor Eddie Walls on Twitter.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis – The Power Rank member numbers have favored the Colts (3.5 points over the Jags) more than the markets. One way to capitalize on these projections is looking at all available markets, not just the primary spread.
Betscope scans all of these markets to find the best price based on the prediction. Interestingly, the alternate line of Colts +4.5 at -227 on Barstool offers great value, a market still available as of Saturday morning.
While it may seem counterintuitive to pay more for this alternative spread, the distribution math that Betscope utilizes identifies fair market prices for all values of alternate spreads and totals. Sometimes, the value in the market is found where these alternate lines aren’t priced right on either side.
In this case, Colts +4.5 crosses several key numbers and should have a much lower payout for a fair market price. Identifying these underrated opportunities with Betscope is key to capitalizing on inefficiencies in the market at large.
Injuries – This NFL information comes from ESPN. With so many QB injuries, college football gets its own list this week below.
- Dallas QB Dak Prescott is listed as questionable against Philadelphia. Prescott hasn’t played since week 1.
- Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa is out against Minnesota with a concussion. Back up Teddy Bridgewater might also be out with a concussion.
- New England QB Mac Jones is questionable with an ankle injury.
- New Orleans QB Jameis Winston will not start against Cincinnati but may be active.
- Carolina QB Baker Mayfield is doubtful against the Los Angeles Rams with a shoulder injury.
College football injuries are from USA Today unless otherwise noted.
- Alabama QB Bryce Young didn’t play last week against Texas A&M with a sprain in his throwing shoulder, but he will play at Tennessee if all goes well pregame.
- North Carolina State QB Devin Leary is day to day but could also be out six weeks with an upper body injury. Back up Jack Chambers threw one pass in five possessions last week against Florida State, so expect a different game plan.
- Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson didn’t play last week against Mississippi State but is expected to be active against BYU.
- Illinois QB Tommy Devito left the game against Iowa last week with an ankle injury and is questionable against Minnesota. Arthur Sitkowski would play in his place.
- Kansas QB Jalon Daniels is doubtful against Oklahoma because of a shoulder injury.
- Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel didn’t play against Texas last week due to a head injury and is questionable against Kansas.
- Kentucky QB Will Levis didn’t play against South Carolina last week because of a hand injury but is probable against Mississippi State.
Denver Broncos pass offense – When new head coach Nathaniel Hackett let the clock run in the final minute of the season opener against Seattle, it made Andy Reid seem like a clock management Einstein.
However, the coaching blunder covered up an important nugget: Denver had their best passing performance all season against Seattle. Russell Wilson and company had a passing success rate of 43.2% (NFL average of 43.0% this season).
Since that game, Denver’s pass offense has not a success rate better than 36%. Overall, the Broncos rank 30th in the NFL in passing success rate. While small sample size is always a consideration, Wilson’s PFF passing grade of 59 suggests signal in these awful numbers.
You can grab all these raw passing success rates on offense and defense on the public part of The Power Rank.
Tennessee Volunteers – It has been hard for Tennessee since they fired national championship winning coach Phil Fulmer in 2008. However, they are off to a 5-0 start and have a unique opportunity against Alabama at home.
It does seem like Alabama QB Bryce Young will play, and the spread has moved to Alabama -8.5 on the road as of Saturday morning. If Tennessee wins as an underdog, they will really need the Fan Training Specialist recommended by SEC Shorts.
Poker cheating scandal – A poker pro loses a hand to a woman. The look on his face when he loses is priceless.
But then this poker pro Garrett Adelstein goes nuts and accuses Robbi Jade Lew of cheating. She gives him the money back, even though the cheating accusation makes no sense.
Later, the story takes a new twist as a casino employee stole chips away from Lewis. What a wild story.
Football betting with a PhD edge
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