These predictions come from my world soccer/football rankings that take the score in games and adjust for strength of schedule.
United States
These are two neutral site games in Europe.
United States vs Japan – United States has a 39.1% chance to win. Japan has a 32.8% chance to win. There is a 28.1% chance for a tie.
United States vs Saudi Arabia – United States has a 55.0% chance to win. Saudi Arabia has a 17.3% chance to win. There is a 27.6% chance for a tie.
Mexico
These games are in California, but I consider them home games for El Tri.
Mexico hosting Peru – Mexico has a 46.6% chance to win. Peru has a 26.7% chance to win. There is a 26.7% chance for a tie.
Mexico hosting Colombia – Mexico has a 35.3% chance to win. Colombia has a 33.1% chance to win. There is a 31.5% chance for a tie.
UEFA Nations League
Croatia hosting Denmark – Croatia has a 39.1% chance to win. Denmark has a 34.5% chance to win. There is a 26.4% chance for a tie.
Belgium hosting Wales – Belgium has a 72.8% chance to win. Wales has a 9.9% chance to win. There is a 17.4% chance for a tie.
Italy hosting England – Italy has a 44.0% chance to win. England has a 24.7% chance to win. There is a 31.2% chance for a tie. The markets will be stronger on England than my numbers.
Spain hosting Switzerland – Spain has a 58.3% chance to win. Switzerland has a 19.2% chance to win. There is a 22.5% chance for a tie.
Poland hosting Netherlands – Poland has a 29.8% chance to win. Netherlands has a 46.0% chance to win. There is a 24.2% chance for a tie.
Wales hosting Poland – Wales has a 45.7% chance to win. Poland has a 27.4% chance to win. There is a 26.8% chance for a tie.
Denmark hosting France – Denmark has a 37.3% chance to win. France has a 34.6% chance to win. There is a 28.1% chance for a tie.
Netherlands hosting Belgium – Netherlands has a 39.3% chance to win. Belgium has a 38.2% chance to win. There is a 22.5% chance for a tie.
England hosting Germany – England has a 55.6% chance to win. Germany has a 21.3% chance to win. There is a 23.1% chance for a tie.
Portugal hosting Spain – Portugal has a 44.9% chance to win. Spain has a 30.1% chance to win. There is a 25.0% chance for a tie.
Ukraine vs Scotland – Ukraine has a 47.7% chance to win. Scotland has a 25.4% chance to win. There is a 26.9% chance for a tie. Neutral site game in Poland because, you know, war.
Football betting with a PhD edge
I started The Power Rank over a decade ago based on the mathematics from my Stanford PhD. The strength of schedule adjustments are just as useful in college football and the NFL as international football/soccer.
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