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NFL passing success rate

A play is a success if the offense gets the following fraction of yards towards the next first down:

  • 50% on 1st down
  • 70% on 2nd down
  • 100% on 3rd, 4th down

My research shows that passing success rate on offense has an R-squared of 0.331 from early to late season in the NFL. This is about as sticky as team metrics get.

Passing success rate on defense is not as predictive (R-squared of 0.12).

The table below shows raw numbers. Members of The Power Rank get access to passing success adjusted for opponents.

Team Record Off Rnk Off Rating Def Rnk Def Rating
Philadelphia (16-4) 16 43.4% 3 39.2%
Cincinnati (14-5) 5 47.6% 6 39.7%
Kansas City (17-3) 1 52.8% 15 42.1%
Buffalo (14-4) 3 48.5% 13 41.6%
San Francisco (15-5) 2 48.9% 5 39.5%
Dallas (13-6) 7 46.0% 7 40.1%
Baltimore (10-8) 22 40.4% 19 43.0%
Jacksonville (10-9) 8 46.0% 25 44.6%
Detroit (9-8) 4 48.1% 24 44.1%
Miami (9-9) 13 43.9% 20 43.6%
Cleveland (7-10) 18 41.6% 11 41.0%
New England (8-9) 24 39.9% 10 40.8%
Minnesota (13-5) 10 45.4% 27 46.4%
Green Bay (8-9) 15 43.6% 14 41.8%
Pittsburgh (9-8) 19 41.4% 18 42.9%
New York Jets (7-10) 28 37.4% 4 39.4%
Washington (8-8-1) 25 39.5% 1 37.2%
Los Angeles Chargers (10-8) 12 44.2% 9 40.6%
New Orleans (7-10) 9 46.0% 2 37.8%
New York Giants (10-8-1) 21 40.7% 16 42.4%
Carolina (7-10) 31 34.9% 23 44.1%
Las Vegas (6-11) 20 41.1% 29 49.1%
Atlanta (7-10) 14 43.8% 31 49.1%
Seattle (9-9) 6 46.0% 17 42.5%
Tennessee (7-10) 26 38.9% 22 43.9%
Tampa Bay (8-10) 11 44.7% 8 40.5%
Denver (5-12) 30 34.9% 12 41.5%
Arizona (4-13) 27 37.7% 30 49.1%
Indianapolis (4-12-1) 23 40.0% 21 43.7%
Los Angeles Rams (5-12) 17 42.2% 28 47.3%
Chicago (3-14) 32 34.6% 32 49.6%
Houston (3-13-1) 29 36.5% 26 44.7%
NFL Avg 16.5 42.8% 16.5 42.8%

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  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
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    • NFL passing success rate
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