A play is a success if the offense gets the following fraction of yards towards the next first down:
- 50% on 1st down
- 70% on 2nd down
- 100% on 3rd, 4th down
My research shows that passing success rate on offense has an R-squared of 0.331 from early to late season in the NFL. This is about as sticky as team metrics get.
Passing success rate on defense is not as predictive (R-squared of 0.12).
The table below shows raw numbers. Members of The Power Rank get access to passing success adjusted for opponents.
| Team | Record | Off Rnk | Off Rating | Def Rnk | Def Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | (16-4) | 16 | 43.4% | 3 | 39.2% |
| Cincinnati | (14-5) | 5 | 47.6% | 6 | 39.7% |
| Kansas City | (17-3) | 1 | 52.8% | 15 | 42.1% |
| Buffalo | (14-4) | 3 | 48.5% | 13 | 41.6% |
| San Francisco | (15-5) | 2 | 48.9% | 5 | 39.5% |
| Dallas | (13-6) | 7 | 46.0% | 7 | 40.1% |
| Baltimore | (10-8) | 22 | 40.4% | 19 | 43.0% |
| Jacksonville | (10-9) | 8 | 46.0% | 25 | 44.6% |
| Detroit | (9-8) | 4 | 48.1% | 24 | 44.1% |
| Miami | (9-9) | 13 | 43.9% | 20 | 43.6% |
| Cleveland | (7-10) | 18 | 41.6% | 11 | 41.0% |
| New England | (8-9) | 24 | 39.9% | 10 | 40.8% |
| Minnesota | (13-5) | 10 | 45.4% | 27 | 46.4% |
| Green Bay | (8-9) | 15 | 43.6% | 14 | 41.8% |
| Pittsburgh | (9-8) | 19 | 41.4% | 18 | 42.9% |
| New York Jets | (7-10) | 28 | 37.4% | 4 | 39.4% |
| Washington | (8-8-1) | 25 | 39.5% | 1 | 37.2% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | (10-8) | 12 | 44.2% | 9 | 40.6% |
| New Orleans | (7-10) | 9 | 46.0% | 2 | 37.8% |
| New York Giants | (10-8-1) | 21 | 40.7% | 16 | 42.4% |
| Carolina | (7-10) | 31 | 34.9% | 23 | 44.1% |
| Las Vegas | (6-11) | 20 | 41.1% | 29 | 49.1% |
| Atlanta | (7-10) | 14 | 43.8% | 31 | 49.1% |
| Seattle | (9-9) | 6 | 46.0% | 17 | 42.5% |
| Tennessee | (7-10) | 26 | 38.9% | 22 | 43.9% |
| Tampa Bay | (8-10) | 11 | 44.7% | 8 | 40.5% |
| Denver | (5-12) | 30 | 34.9% | 12 | 41.5% |
| Arizona | (4-13) | 27 | 37.7% | 30 | 49.1% |
| Indianapolis | (4-12-1) | 23 | 40.0% | 21 | 43.7% |
| Los Angeles Rams | (5-12) | 17 | 42.2% | 28 | 47.3% |
| Chicago | (3-14) | 32 | 34.6% | 32 | 49.6% |
| Houston | (3-13-1) | 29 | 36.5% | 26 | 44.7% |
| NFL Avg | 16.5 | 42.8% | 16.5 | 42.8% |