A play is a success if the offense gets the following fraction of yards towards the next first down:
- 50% on 1st down
- 70% on 2nd down
- 100% on 3rd, 4th down
My research shows that passing success rate on offense has an R-squared of 0.331 from early to late season in the NFL. This is about as sticky as team metrics get.
Passing success rate on defense is not as predictive (R-squared of 0.12).
The table below shows raw numbers. Members of The Power Rank get access to passing success adjusted for opponents.
| Team | Record | Off Rnk | Off Rating | Def Rnk | Def Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco | (4-0) | 2 | 56.3% | 9 | 41.2% |
| Los Angeles Rams | (2-2) | 11 | 46.6% | 10 | 41.2% |
| Baltimore | (3-1) | 4 | 50.0% | 5 | 37.4% |
| Dallas | (3-1) | 10 | 46.9% | 2 | 29.8% |
| Buffalo | (3-1) | 3 | 51.0% | 12 | 42.1% |
| Indianapolis | (2-2) | 19 | 40.8% | 29 | 48.8% |
| Kansas City | (3-1) | 13 | 46.0% | 4 | 37.4% |
| Arizona | (1-3) | 16 | 44.2% | 30 | 49.6% |
| Seattle | (3-1) | 7 | 48.1% | 17 | 43.6% |
| Houston | (2-2) | 8 | 48.1% | 8 | 40.9% |
| Detroit | (3-1) | 5 | 48.9% | 16 | 42.8% |
| Jacksonville | (2-2) | 12 | 46.1% | 15 | 42.7% |
| Cleveland | (2-2) | 24 | 38.3% | 1 | 27.1% |
| Cincinnati | (1-3) | 27 | 35.8% | 25 | 45.9% |
| Philadelphia | (4-0) | 18 | 41.1% | 19 | 44.6% |
| New York Jets | (1-3) | 32 | 30.8% | 22 | 45.1% |
| Tennessee | (2-2) | 30 | 33.6% | 28 | 46.7% |
| New York Giants | (1-3) | 29 | 34.4% | 13 | 42.3% |
| Washington | (2-2) | 22 | 39.6% | 6 | 37.8% |
| Miami | (3-1) | 1 | 57.3% | 31 | 50.0% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | (2-2) | 6 | 48.4% | 24 | 45.4% |
| Pittsburgh | (2-2) | 31 | 31.7% | 26 | 46.5% |
| Tampa Bay | (3-1) | 15 | 44.6% | 7 | 37.9% |
| New England | (1-3) | 21 | 40.5% | 23 | 45.1% |
| Minnesota | (1-3) | 14 | 44.9% | 20 | 44.6% |
| New Orleans | (2-2) | 23 | 39.2% | 3 | 35.3% |
| Atlanta | (2-2) | 26 | 37.0% | 11 | 42.0% |
| Green Bay | (2-2) | 25 | 37.9% | 21 | 45.1% |
| Carolina | (0-4) | 28 | 35.4% | 14 | 42.6% |
| Las Vegas | (1-3) | 9 | 47.2% | 27 | 46.5% |
| Denver | (1-3) | 17 | 41.8% | 32 | 53.7% |
| Chicago | (0-4) | 20 | 40.7% | 18 | 44.2% |
| NFL Avg | 16.5 | 42.8% | 16.5 | 42.8% |