Your weekly dose of sports betting tips and news, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
Hurricane Ian – Weather may play a role in football betting this weekend. As of Saturday morning, Hurricane Ian is traveling north from North Carolina to Virginia. These two college football games were moved to Sunday. (All times Eastern).
- Eastern Washington at Florida is now scheduled for noon on Sunday.
- SMU at UCF is scheduled for 1pm on Sunday.
Here is a list of college football games that could be impacted by the hurricane.
- East Carolina at South Florida (game moved to FAU stadium in Boca Raton).
- Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina (kick off moved to 7pm).
- Virginia at Duke
- Virginia Tech at North Carolina
- Texas State at James Madison
- Liberty at Old Dominion
The totals in these games will go down if the hurricane will impact the game.
New England at Green Bay – Two weeks ago, Green Bay closed -10, +100 against the lowly Bears. Now, the Patriots are priced in the same territory with the start for QB Brian Hoyer.
Hoyer is undoubtedly a downgrade from Mac Jones. However, professional bettor Rob Pizzola points out that the Pats’ underlying metrics are much better than the results so far.
Green Bay has struggled to find their groove, and Rob likes New England +9.5. Check out all of the great work Rob and co-workers do over at The Hammer, a new sports betting media company.
Betscope for the NFL – One of the easiest ways to boost your ROI is arbitrage situations. For example, markets had the following bets at one time this week:
- BetMGM had +105 for Tyler Lockett over 5.5 receptions
- DraftKings had +100 for Tyler Lockett under 5.5 receptions
A bet of $102 on the under at Draftkings and $100 on the over at BetMGM locks in a profit.
However, the more profitable way to capitalize on arbitrage situations is to bet the profitable side. You can do this with Betscope’s ROI calculator by making small changes to the receptions line. After changing Lockett’s receptions from 5.6 to 5.61, Betscope calculated a 3.1% edge on over 5.5 receptions, +105.
Identifying markets with pricing mistakes is a surefire way to grow your bankroll. To find these opportunities, check out Betscope for the NFL.
Injuries – Unless otherwise noted, this information is from USA Today for college football and ESPN for the NFL.
- Dallas QB Dak Prescott will not play week 4 against Washington due to a thumb injury.
- Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa has a concussion and neck injury from the Thursday night game at Cincinnati. He is questionable moving forward.
- New England QB Mac Jones is doubtful against Green Bay due to an ankle injury.
- New Orleans QB Jameis Winston is doubtful against Minnesota in London, but Winston has played the last few weeks despite his appearance on the injury list.
- New York Jets QB Zach Wilson makes his debut this season against Pittsburgh.
- Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa has a rib injury and is questionable against Michigan State.
- Purdue QB Aiden O’Connell didn’t play last week against Florida Atlantic and is questionable against Minnesota.
- Fresno State QB Jake Haener will not play against Connecticut due to an ankle injury.
- LSU QB Jayden Daniels left last week’s game with a back injury, but coach Brian Kelly said on Wednesday that he’s good to go against Auburn.
Alabama at Arkansas – The Razorbacks are still reeling from a game winning field goal attempt that bounced off the top of the goal post last week against Texas A&M. It doesn’t get any easier as Alabama comes to town this week.
Bill Connelly of ESPN notes how Arkansas’s pass defense has struggled this season, and it will not help that star safety Jalen Catalon is out for the season. This seems like a poor match up against defending Heisman winner Bryce Young and Alabama.
Both Bill’s SP+ and The Power Rank member predictions have Alabama by 15.3 points at Arkansas.
NFTuck – In case the Spartan performance on the field hasn’t been enough for fans, you can now purchase a non-fungible token (NFT) for Michigan State coach Mel Tucker. The only question is whether its value will exceed the $95 million value of Tucker’s contract.
The Power Rank member numbers favor Maryland by 5.9 points against Michigan State. This preseason, my numbers would have made Michigan State a 3.3 point road favorite.
Florida QB Anthony Richardson – Last week, I tweeted that Richardson had the 4th best odds to become the first pick of the 2023 NFL Draft at 14-1. This seemed odd due to the struggles of Florida’s offense this season (16 points and 21.2% success rate against Kentucky).
I got a reply that asked “Have these people watched him throw passes?” FanDuel Sportsbook replied:
We actually just watch the highlights… he's not a running back?
— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) September 22, 2022
Despite 453 passing yard against Tennessee, Richardson has dropped to 50-1 to be the first overall NFL draft pick.
Football betting with a PhD edge
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