THE POWER RANK

Do you pick Alabama or the field? A 2013 SEC college football preview

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SEC_win_prob_2013_ThePowerRankNote from Ed: This is a guest post by Chad Peltier. Raised by an Ohio State fan but a graduate of the University of Georgia, Chad spends his spare time uncovering the deepest mysteries in football analytics.

Despite Alabama’s past stranglehold on the SEC (and college football in general), the SEC should be home to one of the tightest, most intriguing races in the country this season.

The numbers suggest that Alabama should remain the favorite, but a crop of other teams will challenge the Tide for supremacy. Texas A&M – with or without Manziel – LSU, Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida all have excellent shots at dethroning Nick Saban in the last year of the BCS.

For more on how the win probabilities are calculated, click here.

Let’s break down both divisions, starting with the East.

SEC East

The front end of the SEC East should be extremely familiar, with Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina vying for their ticket to the SEC Championship game. The Power Rank estimates a 92.7% chance that one of these three teams will win the SEC East.

Florida

East win probability: 27.6% (3rd). SEC win probability: 9.7% (5th).

Will Muschamp will field a talented but inexperienced squad in 2013, which includes a devastated secondary (losing Matt Elam and Josh Evans) and linebacker units (losing Jonathan Bostic).

The bigger problem might be the same as last year’s team – the lack of any game-breaking offensive threats. ESPN commentator David Pollack questions, “Where’s the talent? Where’s the offensive talent? I can name three receivers from Alabama and three receivers from Georgia off the top of my head that would be the No. 1 guy for Florida.”

Much depends on Jeff Driskel’s development in the passing game. Senior receiver Andre Debose was injured and is now out for the season, so new wide receivers coach (and former Kentucky head coach) Joker Phillips has his work cut out for him.

Georgia

East win probability: 29.8% (2nd). SEC win probability: 10% (4th).

The Gators’ Cocktail Party rivals lost all but four defensive starters to graduation and the NFL, but it’s simply a matter of reloading the already stockpiled talent at Georgia. The top-end talent is unbeatable on both offense and defense at Georgia, but the question is whether the depth at a few key positions – offensive line, linebackers, and the devastated secondary – can handle the long grind of physical games against USC, Florida, and (potentially) Alabama.

Reports from fall camp suggest that the offensive and defensive lines are deeper this season, with veteran players finally joining the game rotation. The offensive line will be anchored by five-star recruit John Theus, seniors Kenarious Gates and David Andrews, as well as newly eligible Kolton Houston. Star tailbacks Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall should have plenty of space to run behind this star line, while senior quarterback Aaron Murray will have the time necessary to target one of the deepest receiving cores in the country.

South Carolina

East win probability: 35.3% (1st). SEC win probability: 11.7% (3rd).

The final challenger in the East is South Carolina. Spurrier’s Gamecocks aren’t just a vehicle for creating Clowney highlights (though that wouldn’t be a terrible thing), but have been one of the most consistently good (but not great) teams in the SEC over the past four seasons.

Clowney loses his fellow defensive end Devin Taylor to the NFL, as well as four of five top running backs, three of the top four receiving targets, the top five linebackers, as well as the stud safety behind them, D.J. Swearinger. Spurrier has work cut out for him this season, but it’s impossible to discount how stable Spurrier has kept his Gamecock ship the past four seasons.

Rest of SEC East

Missouri and Tennessee look fairly similar as middle-of-the-road teams on paper. Tennessee first year head coach Butch Jones will attempt to find the cure for the Volunteers poor turnover margin the past few seasons. Missouri must turn its penchant for explosive plays in to some measure of offensive consistency. Dorial Green-Beckham will pace a deep receiving core that will attempt to reclaim the numbers from when Missouri was in the Big 12. Missouri and Tennessee have a slim chance to win the SEC based upon The Power Rank estimates, with a .5% and .4% win probability overall and a 3.4% and 2.8% chance to win the East respectively.

Meanwhile, Vanderbilt’s already poor run defense will be hurt by the loss of the top three defensive tackles. Coach James Franklin has Vanderbilt playing its best football in the history of the program. But this is a critical year as Vanderbilt attempts to break out of the SEC cellar and into the middle of the road group of SEC teams. This is likely not the Commodores year, with a .1% win probability for the SEC and just a 1% chance of winning the East.

First year coach Mark Stoops has his work cut out for him at Kentucky, the reigning basement dweller in the SEC. UK brings a legacy of both underdeveloped and shallow depth as well as a negative turnover margin that will likely frustrate Kentucky fans until Stoops’ surprisingly good recruiting classes get on campus next year. Kentucky has close to no chance of winning the SEC (0.0%) and only a .1% chance of winning the East.

SEC West

While the SEC East is fairly evenly divided between great, middle, and poor teams, the West is more stratified. The top three overall SEC teams should reside in the West, including Alabama, Texas A&M, and LSU. However, Ole Miss is certainly doing its best to enter this group under second year head coach Hugh Freeze.

Alabama

West win probability: 62.2% (1st). SEC win probability: 46.7% (1st).

Alabama remains the obvious leader of the Western triumvirate, but it is nonetheless striking how dominant the numbers suggest that the Tide will be in 2013. In The Power Rank’s preseason rankings, the margin between the Tide and the second ranked Aggies (7.5 points) is larger than the difference between the second and seventh-ranked SEC teams (4.8 points).

QB AJ McCarron led one of the most surprisingly efficient offenses in the country. He only threw three interceptions while remaining explosive with receivers Amari Cooper, Kenny Bell, and Kevin Norwood and freshman running back TJ Yeldon. The offense should improve even further in 2013 behind McCarron’s experience and the addition of new threats Robert Foster, Altee Tenpenny, and Derrick Henry.

If there are any areas for concern for Alabama this season, the offensive line does lose its top three (All-American) linemen and hasn’t recruited quite as deeply as we might expect. Many of offensive line coach Mario Cristoball’s players are former three-star recruits that will be pressed in to action this season. Traditionally strong defensive lines at LSU and Georgia, as well as the surprisingly talented Ole Miss line could give the Tide trouble.

With the graduation of Dee Milliner and the Geno Smith’s arrest, Alabama has another pressure point at cornerback. However, the offensive line and cornerback positions are still more solid than many of the other top-10 teams. Alabama has a realistic shot at perfection once again behind a forgiving schedule.

Texas A&M

West win probability: 22.7% (2nd). SEC win probability: 13.7% (2nd).

This was an offseason controlled by Texas A&M and Johnny Manziel story-lines, but coach Kevin Sumlin has brought steady growth and consistently entertaining offenses to College Station that justify (most of) the hype.

Interestingly enough, Texas A&M has improved despite its atrocious turnover margin, which has been in the red since the 2007 season.

If anything might derail the Aggies’ ascent to the college football elite, it might be heavy personnel turnover and limited depth. Sumlin can claim the worst personnel turnover in the SEC, with heavy losses at offensive line, linebacker, and defensive line.

The key to 2013 will be the ability of incoming freshmen to fill the holes in the front seven to stop the rush attacks of LSU, and Alabama.

LSU

West win probability: 8.5% (3rd). SEC win probability: 4.6% (6th).

LSU’s season will be built on senior QB Zach Mettenberger, who hasn’t quite exploited his NFL-quality arm in his short starting career. LSU has been consistently good, but only elite in 2011 behind two senior quarterbacks and a dominant defensive line.

The Tigers are hurt by the departures of DE Sam Montgomery and Barkevious Mingo, but high-quality recruits should emerge to take the mantle.

With a 4.6% probability of winning the SEC and 8.5% chance at the Western title, the Tigers are just the sixth most likely to take home the SEC title. LSU probably doesn’t have the stars to dethrone Alabama this season, but its defensive line should match up well with the Tide’s offense to make things interesting.

Ole Miss

West win probability: 6% (4th). SEC win probability: 2.7% (7th).

Ole Miss should be one of the most interesting teams to follow in 2013, with the allure of a still new head coach and an exciting offense. Plus, the Rebels welcome a stellar class of young recruits (including the top overall freshman Robert Nkemdiche, five star receiver Laquon Treadwell, and top offensive lineman Laremy Tunsil), and return a defensive line that has the talent (if not depth) to compete with the top offensive lines in the SEC.

The key for Coach Freeze is depth in 2013, as quality depth helps to create consistency. There is perhaps no team in the SEC that is more in need of consistency than the Rebels, who have fielded drastically different teams for the past five years. In fact, the only thing consistent about the Rebels has been their poor turnover margin, which has been negative for the past four seasons.

If Freeze can bring any measure of consistency to the program, then Ole Miss should have a 2.7% of capturing the SEC crown and a 6% shot at the Western title. Ole Miss is just outside the “good” group of SEC teams, with almost the same chance to be the Western representative as LSU.

Rest of SEC West

Auburn, Mississippi State, and Arkansas make up the bottom tier of the West and the SEC as a whole. All had down years in 2012 and shared terrible turnover margins, but things might get worse before they get better for both Arkansas and Mississippi State. These two teams have almost no chance at the SEC title and only a .1% probability of winning the West. Dan Mullen has one of the more difficult jobs in the country, competing in the loaded SEC West and now vying with resurgent instate rival Ole Miss.

Auburn, on the other hand, benefits from a wealth of returning starters and the relative familiarity of first year head coach Gus Malzhan’s offense. Auburn’s team culture suffered heavily under Chizik’s staff, with the team not buying in or giving full effort commensurate with the talent levels on the field. With the Tigers’ talent, new team ethos, and new offensive system, the Tigers should rejoin the good or at least middle-pack teams in the SEC this season. New first string quarterback Nick Marshall will determine Auburn’s ceiling this year, but Auburn still just has a .3% probability of winning the West (.1% overall).

Overview

Between new head coaches at Kentucky, Arkansas, Auburn, and Tennessee, the relative parity between Georgia, Florida, LSU, USC, and Texas A&M, and the stellar recruiting classes, the SEC races will be exciting in 2013.

Besides the (fairly) easy pick for Alabama to return to the SEC Championship, it’s difficult to pick an eastern representative between Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina. As of now, an Alabama-South Carolina bout or Georgia-Alabama rematch is the most probable outcome, but the margins are extremely slim.

As for the eventual SEC champion, we return to our original question: Alabama or the remaining 13 SEC teams?

Take the field. At 53%, the odds are in your favor.

The Top 25 College Football Teams of 2013 by Recruiting Rankings

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Nick_Saban_StatueRecruiting rankings do matter.

Each year, Rivals assigns a rating or points value to each school that describes the talent of the players who signed a letter of intent. For Sports Illustrated, we developed a model that takes the Rivals ratings and predicts future team performance. To compare the rankings from this model with the preseason AP poll, we looked at which rankings better predicted the final AP poll.

The Rivals model did as good or better than the preseason AP poll on 46 out of 100 teams over the last 4 years. This is remarkable given the limited information the recruiting model has compared with the writers that vote in the AP poll.

To get the full story on SI.com, click here.

Before we count down the top 25 teams for 2013, we note the following about this regression model.

  • The regression model has learned from the past by relating recruiting ratings to the team ratings from The Power Rank algorithm. For example, recruiting data from 2009 to 2012 were fit to The Power Rank’s results for the 2012 season. Our team ratings from the regular season have picked the winner in 62.8% of bowl games over the last 11 years, a better percentage than the Vegas line (62.2%). Part of the accuracy of the recruiting model depends on our team ratings.
  • We used the final AP poll as the measuring stick for the accuracy of the Rivals model and the preseason AP poll. This poll has problems, as it strongly considers wins but almost ignores margin of victory. However, it was the most relevant measurement of team strength for a general college football audience.
  • The 100 teams we looked at were the top 25 teams in the preseason AP poll over the last 4 years. This puts the recruiting model in a better light, since this set of teams didn’t include teams highly ranked by the recruiting model but outside the AP top 25. For example, the recruiting model had Auburn 7th heading into the 2012 season. The preseason AP poll had Auburn 28th, which more accurately predicted their disasterous season.

With the passing of National Signing Day 2013, we now have the Rivals ratings to predict the 2013 college football season. The predictions are based the past 8 years of team performance.

25. Stanford. The Cardinal only had 12 scholarships to offer incoming freshmen. Since the number of recruits directly affects the Rivals team rating, Stanford only had the 61st ranked class this year, a far cry from their 5th ranked class a season ago.

24. Miami (FL). Miami coach Al Golden can’t walk off campus without tripping over a highly touted high school player. However, impending NCAA sanctions made recruiting difficult this year, as they had the 44th best class, much worse than their 9th ranking a year ago.

23. Virginia Tech. Despite two down years, coach Frank Beamer still recruited the 22nd ranked class. The Hokies need QB Logan Thomas’s passing to improve or groom a better passer.

22. California. The Bears continue to recruit well despite the coaching change from Jeff Tedford to Sonny Dykes. However, this ranking is probably too high. The Cal offense will be learning a new spread system under Dykes, while the defense lost coordinator Clancy Pendergast to USC.

21. Washington. The Huskies have continually improved their recruiting rank over the last 4 year, rising from 28th in 2010 to 18th in 2013. Hopefully, some of the linemen recruiting during this time will give QB Keith Price better protection next season.

20. Nebraska. The Cornhuskers pulled in the 17th best class, by far the 3rd best class in the Big Ten. Unfortunately, Michigan and Ohio State were way ahead, and Nebraska has to travel to Ann Arbor this season.

19. South Carolina. With all the media chatter about the talent in Columbus and the draw dropping hits from Jadeveon Clowney, you might think South Carolina is a top 10 recruiting team. In reality, their 16th ranking in 2013 was their best over the last 4 seasons.

18. Tennessee. The Rivals model had the Vols 13th in the nation last season, which was way too high. With new coach Butch Jones taking over, this year’s 18th ranking is also probably too high.

17. Oregon. Over the last 4 years, the Rivals model has consistently underrated the Ducks. The preseason AP poll was more accurate each year. Will this continue after head coach Chip Kelly handed the program over to Mark Helfrich?

16. UCLA. In talent rich Southern California, the Bruins always recruit well. They finally lived up to that talent last season under first year head coach Jim Mora. Their 11th ranked class this year should continue this trajectory.

15. Texas A&M. New coach Kevin Sumlin is getting tons of credit for recruiting the 10th best class this year. Of course, it helps that Johnny Manziel (a 3 star recruit) led the Aggies to their best season in more than a decade.

14. Mississippi. The Rebels and coach Hugh Freeze had a magical signing day, landing two top 10 recruits on the offensive and defensive line. Their 7th ranking is by far their best since 2002. However, three of their rivals in the SEC west are ranked higher in these rankings.

13. Clemson. With their dramatic, come from behind win against LSU in the Chick-fil-A Bowl, the Tigers will surely be an overrated top 10 team in the preseason AP poll. This ranking in the teens seems more appropriate.

12. Oklahoma. In the past 12 years, the Sooners have recruited a top 10 class 7 times. However, none of these top 10 classes have occurred during the last 3 seasons. Coach Bob Stoops needs more talent on the defensive line to start contending for national titles again.

11. Texas. Even Mack Brown can’t recruit after 3 subpar seasons. The Longhorns had the 23rd ranked class, their worst since 2002. Their usually excellent defense really needs help after last season.

10. Georgia. How would the Bulldogs recruiting class would have fared if the coaches had told QB Aaron Murray to spike the ball during the waning moments of the SEC championship game? A win over Alabama would have landed Georgia in the national title game against Notre Dame. Instead, they had the 12th best class, a fine rank but the second worst for coach Mark Richt over the last 12 years.

9. Michigan. After a disasterous 3 seasons under Rich Rodriguez, Brady Hoke has turned around this program both on the field and recruiting trail. The Wolverines notched the 5th ranked class after finishing 7th last year. These are their two best ranked classes over the last 8 years.

8. USC. While we kept hearing about the defections from the Trojan’s class, no one mentioned that coach Lane Kiffin still had five 5 star recruits coming to campus, more than any other school (yes, even Alabama). Lack of talent will not be a problem for USC.

7. Auburn. Yes, feel free to call BS on this one. The Tigers continue to recruit well. But unless the next Cam Newton and Nick Fairley show up on campus this fall, Auburn will not return to elite status this season under new coach Gus Malzahn.

6. Florida State. Call BS on this one at your own risk. Despite disappointing loses to NC State and Florida this year, expect the talent rich Seminoles to exceed expectations next season.

5. LSU. It’s a bit shocking that top recruit Robert Nkemdiche picked Ole Miss over LSU. There’s more certainly in winning games in Baton Rouge. Still, coach Les Miles landed the 6th best class in the nation.

4. Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish took full advantage of their undefeated regular season and landed the 3rd best class in the nation. While we should expect Notre Dame to be good next year, 4th is probably too high.

3. Ohio State. The Buckeyes will not surprise anyone this year. In coach Urban Meyer’s first season, Ohio State started the year 18th in the preseason AP poll. Now, with an undefeated season and a 2nd ranked recruiting class, anything but a national title will be a disappointment.

2. Florida. Last year, first year coach Will Muschamp landed the 3rd ranked class despite finishing 7-6. Somehow, a 11-2 season this year got the Gators the 4th ranked class (although they did top the rankings before National Signing Day). Talent is never a problem at Florida.

1. Alabama. Duh. What did you expect? After going 7-6 in his first year at Alabama, coach Nick Saban still recruited the top ranked class in 2008. This started a streak of top ranked classes for Alabama in 5 of the last 6 years. The rest of the SEC should resort to a voodoo consultant to bring bad turnover luck to Alabama next season.

Outlook

No one should take these rankings too seriously. With the short season and the youth of the players involved, college football is incredibly difficult to predict during the preseason. And these rankings have their problems. There’s an incredibly high likelihood that Boise State will be better than the 60th best team in the nation next year.

However, these rankings are still useful, and not only because they are six months ahead of the preseason AP poll. As with all predictive analytics, use these rankings has a guide to help navigate expectations for next season.

Moreover, this is only the beginning of our preseason college football predictions. To keep up to date, sign up for our free email newsletter below.

Thanks for reading.

How Did Sports Illustrated’s Primed to Plummet Teams Do This Weekend?

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The first contribution of The Power Rank to Sports IllustratedLast week, my first article appeared in Sports Illustrated. On page 32 of the September 24th, 2012 issue, I used yards per play as a metric to determine which college football teams might soon fall in the rankings. Of the 4 teams, Texas didn’t play this weekend. How did the other 3 teams do?

Ohio State

Against one of the worst teams in college football, the Buckeyes had a 21-15 lead late in the 4th quarter. Ohio State gave up 5.03 yards per play to a UAB team that only gained 3.38 the previous weekend at South Carolina. The Buckeye defense has fallen from 22nd at the end of last season to 44th now in our defense rankings. These rankings are based on yards allowed per play adjusted for schedule strength. With this kind of play, they won’t be 14th in the AP Poll for long.

Oklahoma

Kansas State knew they could run the ball against Oklahoma. Coach Bill Snyder’s team ran the ball on 68% of their plays (44 of 65), higher than their 63% from last year that was 12th most in the nation. They gained 4.84 yards per rush and went home with a 24-19 win. The Sooners, who have not overcome their injuries on the defensive line, dropped to 16th in the AP Poll.

South Carolina

The Gamecocks beat a good Missouri team 31-10. While quarterback Connor Shaw won’t go 20 for 21 for 249 yards every game, their mediocre performance against Vanderbilt might be an outlier. South Carolina has jumped to 35th in our pass offense rankings after ending last season at 60th.

So after only one week, 2 of the 3 teams identified as “primed to plummet” struggled. Not a bad start.

Check out all our college football rankings on our premium page, still free at this point in the season.

27 Numbers Everyone Ought to Know About College Football in the SEC

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SEC! SEC! SEC!

It’s a chant for an entire conference. Not a team, but a conference.

That’s what happens when one conference has won the last 6 national championships in college football. Not since Vince Young led Texas over USC in the 2006 Rose Bowl has a team from another conference won it all.

How will they do in the upcoming 2012 season?

To find out, we’ll go a numbers fueled romp through the league. Here at The Power Rank, we take sports numbers and adjust them for strength of schedule. On the most simple level, we use margin of victory to calculate our team rankings.

Recently, we’ve expanded our methods to other football numbers such as pass and rush yards per attempt. It provides a complete picture of rushing and passing in college football that accounts for strength of schedule. In this early stage of football analytics, it’s a rather unique set of results. Bill Connelly does some passing and rushing numbers over at Football Outsiders. That’s it.

Here, we’ll look at our numbers from the 2011 season that might have relevance in the upcoming season. Unless otherwise noted, we’re referring to our rankings and rating that account for schedule strength in the content below.

Ready?

Alabama

11. The rank for Alabama’s rush offense from last year. We gave them a 5.46 rating, meaning they would rush for 5.46 yards per attempt against an average rush defense. That’s significantly better than the 4.74 yards per attempt over all Division I games last year. They lose running back Trent Richardson, who was 3rd overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft. However, Alabama brings back linemen Barrett Jones, D.J. Fluker and Chance Warmack. The Crimson Tide rush offense will be an interesting test as to the importance of a star running back. (1)

6. Alabama’s rank in 2010. There were coming off a national championship, but went a disappointing 10-3. But with the schedule they played in the SEC West, our team rankings thought quite highly of the Crimson Tide. Nick Saban’s teams don’t fall off too much in their off years. (2)

10. The rank of Alabama’s pass offense last year. Yes, our rankings consider their passing better than their rushing. And it could improve this year with another year of experience for quarterback AJ McCarron. Last year, McCarron was fighting for his job during August practice. At the end of this year, he may go down as one of the greats at Alabama. (3)

LSU

2. The rank of LSU’s pass defense last year, predicted to give up 4.39 yards per attempt against an average pass offense. Teams in Division I averaged 6.22 yards per pass attempt last year. LSU lost 2 cornerbacks to the NFL draft and another, Heisman candidate Tyrann Mathieu, to off the field problems. Despite a tremendous defensive line, LSU’s pass defense rank will slip this year. (4)

2010. The last year LSU fans wanted coach Les Miles’ head on a platter. Two years ago, the Tigers needed a late penalty to squeak by Tennessee and a miraculous bounce on a fake field goal to beat Florida. Of course, all this hot seat talk vanished last year when LSU went undefeated in the regular season and made the National Championship game. However, LSU enjoyed a +20 turnover margin last year. Due to the randomness of turnovers, their turnover margin won’t be as high this year. LSU is the most overrated team in the nation. (5)

South Carolina

3. The number of places South Carolina’s run offense increased after Marcus Lattimore got hurt in the Mississippi State game. South Carolina finished 29th in rush offense. However, we when we only include South Carolina games up to and including the Mississippi State game, in which Lattimore carried 39 times before getting hurt, South Carolina was 32nd. South Carolina’s rush offense got better without Lattimore. Maybe star running backs don’t matter. (6)

4.03. The yards per attempt the stingy South Carolina pass defense allowed last year. When adjusted for strength of schedule, this only slips to 4.39 against an average pass offense, good for 3rd in the nation. They lose 3 starters, including NFL first round draft choice Stephon Gilmore. Expect this unit to regress. (7)

Georgia

2. The number of years in a row that Georgia does not play LSU and Alabama in the regular season. Strength of schedule matters even more in the conference championship game era of college football. Since conferences need at least 12 teams to hold a championship game, teams no longer play every other team in their league. (8)

4.95. The yards per pass attempt Georgia’s expected to give up against an average pass offense. This ranked them 8th in the nation last year. They only lose one starter and have the potential to keep this lofty ranking this season. (9)

28. The number of ranking places that Georgia’s rush defense drops when going from yards per game to our adjusted yards per attempt. They allowed 120.4 yards per game, good for 11th in the nation. Note this number does not include sack yards like the official stats do. However, they allowed 4.16 yards per carry, 17th best in the nation. Adjusting for strength of schedule, Georgia lands at 39th, expected to give up 4.38 yards per carry to an average rushing offense. This drop comes from facing below average rush offenses, something that happens when an SEC team doesn’t play Alabama and LSU. There is potential for improvement this season, as Georgia features 700 pounds of defensive tackles (John Jenkins and Kwame Geathers) in the middle of the defense. (10)

Arkansas

3. The number of times in the last 4 years that Arkansas running back Knile Davis has fractured an ankle. One fractured ankle is bad luck. Two makes one worry. Three becomes a trend. Can Davis stay healthy? (11)

6. The highest rank of a passing offense last year (Arkansas) with a returning starting quarterback this year. Arkansas quarterback Tyler Wilson completed 63% of his passes last year. He loses 3 receivers to the NFL draft, so production at this level remains a question this year. (12)

85. The ranking of Arkansas’s run defense last season. This must improve for the Razorbacks to have any chance of winning the SEC West ahead of Alabama and LSU. Hope springs eternal as they return 6 of their top 8 defensive linemen from last season. (13)

Auburn

2. The number of coordinators that Auburn head coach Gene Chizik had to replace this season. (14)

70. Auburn’s rank in pass offense last year. Even with innovative offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, Auburn dropped significantly last season after losing quarterback Cam Newton. It’s probably impossible to project into this year, as new offensive coordinator Scott Loeffler will install a pro style offense run by speedy quarterback Kiehl Frazer. But don’t expect the passing offense to move into the top 25. (15)

120. The ranking for Auburn’s pass protection last year after adjusting for strength of competition. They allowed a sack on 9.9% of pass attempts, compared with an average of 6%. This rate only gets worse (10%) when we adjust for strength of schedule. This inability to protect the quarterback most certainly contributed to the poor pass offense. Even with the loss of 3 starters on the offensive line, it will be difficult for a top tier program to protect their quarterback this poorly again. (16)

Texas A&M

11. Texas A&M’s final team rank last year. Don’t let the 7-6 record fool you. The Aggies lost a horde of close games to very good competition. They might not hang so close this season with new coach Kevin Sumlin. (17)

6. Nate Silver’s estimate for how Texas A&M ranks for number of fans. Undoubtedly, the SEC understood the magnitude of this fan base (about 2 million) when it pursued Texas A&M to join its league. (18)

91. The number of places Texas A&M’s pass defense improves with our analytics. In a pass heavy Big 12 last year, they allowed 249.9 yards per game, 106th in the nation. However, the Aggies only allowed 5.78 yards per pass attempt compared with a 6.22 average. This was good for 36th in the nation. When adjusting for facing quarterbacks Robert Griffin III (Baylor) and Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma State), the pass defense rockets up to 15th in the nation. Northwestern threw for a measly 3.35 yards per attempt against this defense in their bowl game last season. One must account for schedule strength in college football numbers. (19)

Florida

3. The number of true road SEC games Florida plays this year. They play a total of 8 SEC games this year, with one neutral site game with Georgia. (20)

-12. Florida’s turnover margin from last year. The Gators only forced 14 turnovers last year. Since forcing turnovers is largely random , one should expect Florida’s turnover margin to vastly improve this season. Things are looking up for 2nd year coach Will Muschamp. (21)

18. Year end ranking for Florida’s run defense last year. The Gators allowed 146.9 yards per game last year, only 39th best in the nation. However, they only allowed 3.99 rush yards per attempt in the run heavy SEC compared to a 4.74 college football average. This was good for 17th best in the nation last year. The adjustment for schedule strength doesn’t change this much. However, they have 10 starters returning on defense, so they could improve on this ranking. (22)

Missouri

18. The rank of Missouri’s rush offense for the 3 games they were without running back Henry Josey. While Missouri finished the year ranked 4th in rush offense, they were still a top 20 rushing attack without their starting back. Good thing, as Josey probably won’t be ready for their first game. Missouri also needs to replace 3 starters on the offensive line. (23)

4. The number of rush defenses in the SEC better than Missouri last year. This number includes Texas A&M, who will also join the SEC this year. The other teams were Alabama, LSU and Florida. Missouri, ranked 24th in rush defense, would have fit in quite well in the SEC last year. This year, they must replace 3 starters along the defensive line. (24)

The Others

84. The highest ranking for any of Mississippi‘s 4 units (pass and rush, both offense and defense). They ran the ball at the level of the 84th best team in the bowl subdivision last year. With 16 starters returning, new coach Hugh Freeze has an incredible teaching job ahead of him. (25)

85. The number of games that Tennessee won in the last 10 years with Phil Fulmer as head coach. This 10 year run started the year after Fulmer led Tennessee to the National Championship. That’s 8.5 wins per year. Tennessee has won 18 games in the 3 years since. That’s 6 wins per year. (26)

38. The rank at which Vanderbilt ended last season. For first year coach James Franklin, it was a significant improvement from the 95th they finished the year before. (27)

Complete list of rankings

Not enough numbers? Check out our complete rankings. It’s a part of our premium college football package that will be free for everyone through the first month of the 2012 season.

Thanks for reading.

More National Championship chaos and Boise State

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James writes “Even better for chaos would be for Georgia to win the SEC……….. now how would that work out? Could you put one loss Alabama or LSU back in……oh the possibilities are just great for the ultimate chaos.” Ah yes, it would be fascinating if Alabama/LSU both had one loss but neither ended up winning the SEC. Do you put a one loss, dominant team in the National Championship game if they don’t win their conference? So, here’s the situation. First, Alabama and LSU win all their remaining regular season games after the Tuscaloosa Tussle. Second, the winner of the Alabama LSU game loses to Georgia in the SEC championship game. Third, every other team has at least one loss. The Power Rank gives this a 0.67% probability, so it’s not that likely. Even if the higher ranked South Carolina wins the SEC championship game, the likelihood only goes up to 0.77%.

Last week, we calculated the probability that Boise State ends the season as the only undefeated team. Unfortunately, we made an error since we assumed the remaining undefeated teams did not play each other. Of course, this isn’t true, as Kansas State faces Oklahoma State while Alabama and LSU will command everyone’s attention next Saturday. When we work out the likelihood that Alabama and LSU both end the season with at least one loss, we get 44.2%, most likely a number higher than most people expect. With the correct math, Boise State has a 9.1% chance of being the only undefeated team at the end of the season. It’s still about the 1 in 10 chance we stated previously.