THE POWER RANK

Defensive line tips Oregon game in Michigan State’s favor

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Screen Shot 2015-09-23 at 3.46.40 PMOver at the Detroit News, I previewed the Oregon at Michigan State game on September 12th, 2015.

Both defenses have issues in the secondary. However, I thought Michigan State’s elite defensive line would win the game for the Spartans. It was enough to overrule my numbers which gave an ever so slight edge to Oregon on the road.

The game couldn’t have gone better for me, as Michigan State won 31-28. If you give the defensive line credit for stopping Oregon on 4th and goal from the one yard line in the first half, I even got the details right.

It’s not always going to work out this well. But combining numbers with watching games is powerful in making predictions.

To read the Oregon at Michigan State preview, click here.

Win probability for the Big Ten East in 2015

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Screen Shot 2015-09-23 at 3.35.27 PMOver at the Detroit News, I used analytics to assign a preseason win probability for each team in the Big Ten East.

My favorite part of the article was questioning the dominance of Ohio State.

Before the season started, people acted like the Buckeyes were the greatest team in college football history. However, looking at their track record through analytics over the past 3 season reveals a different story.

Ohio State looked amazing against Virginia Tech in a revenge game from last season (Virginia Tech came to Columbus and won). Then they have looked putrid on offense against Hawaii and Northern Illinois.

I still think they’re one of the two best teams in the nation. But let’s not put them in the playoff just yet.

Michigan State and Michigan also have a chance at the Big Ten East title, with Penn State as an intriguing fourth option.

To read the article, click here.

Predicting Michigan State’s win total for 2015

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Screen Shot 2015-08-27 at 7.03.37 PMOver on the Detroit News, I wrote a preview of Michigan State’s season and predicted a win total.

I knew my numbers had Michigan State a bit low. I tried to explain that in the article.

But I got the expected backlash. This email landed in my inbox a few hours after the article’s publication.

Hey Ed…..how much do you want to bet on this game? I have deep pockets so name your price. You should stick to engineering because you do not know jack shit about college football.

Can’t make everyone happy.

However, the article is good, as I look back at their 30 year history and isolate the one reason that the Spartans might not live up to potential. To read the article, click here.

Detroit News article on Michigan’s win total in 2015

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Screen Shot 2015-08-18 at 9.30.24 AMOver at the Detroit News, I transitioned from baseball to college football with a preview of Jim Harbaugh’s first year as Michigan’s coach.

I had already written a Michigan preview for 2015 on this site, so I spiced up the Detroit News article with a visual on the rich tradition of the program.

My preseason model still expects 7.7 wins for Michigan, but this makes no adjustments for the coaching change.

To read my Detroit News article on Michigan in 2015, click here.

Next week, I preview Michigan State, an interesting team with which to contrast the numbers from subjective opinion.

The curse of small sample size in Tigers bullpen stats

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Screen Shot 2015-08-12 at 8.36.52 AMThe Tigers bullpen has been a mess all season. However, there are always some small sample size flukes with pitchers that throw so few innings.

In my latest Detroit News article, I look at Bruce Rondon, a hard throwing right hander that has shown Tigers fans his best and worst this season.

The crux of the article is how humans want to tell stories about small sample size flukes. The same obsession with patterns that gives us technological marvels like smart phones also gets us in big trouble when watching sports inherent with randomness.

This might be the first sports column to quote a neuroscience book.

To read my Detroit News article on bullpen statistics, click here.