These probabilities are not about the best team. These numbers reflect which teams end the season in the committee’s top 4, and this depends on schedule.
Penn State has the easiest remaining schedule of major playoff contenders. They play at Michigan State, Rutgers, Nebraska and at Maryland. Their smallest win probability is 74.5% at Michigan State.
However, it’s not likely Penn State wins the Big Ten East. With their loss to Ohio State this past weekend, they have a 7% chance to win the division.
The most likely scenario is that Penn State wins their remaining games, sits at home during championship weekend, and sneaks in as the 3rd or 4th seed. Overall, my numbers give this a 51% chance.
On the flip side, Georgia and Notre Dame get hurt by their remaining schedule.
Georgia almost certainly wins the SEC East. However, they must travel to Auburn, a game that I have them as a slight underdog. Also, don’t discount a trip to Georgia Tech to end the season.
Notre Dame has surprised many with a powerful offensive line and punishing ground game. However, they still have games at Miami and Stanford before they can claim a playoff spot.
My numbers give Georgia and Notre Dame a 27% and 36% playoff probability respectively.
For more on the methods behind these calculations, click here.
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