THE POWER RANK

How To Find an Overrated Team

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Last Thursday, we wrote this in our free email newsletter.

A week ago, we looked Rutgers and their almost 10% chance of remaining undefeated.

But that calculation was based on our team rankings, in which Rutgers is currently 32nd. Our offense and defense rankings reveal another side of this team. Their offense is ranked 85th, while their defense rose to 56th after last weekend. Why is there such a discrepancy between the team ranking and the offense and defense rankings?

Turnovers.

Rutgers is +14 in turnover margin this season. And turnovers are random. For example, the turnovers forced by a defense in the first 6 games explains 2.9% of the variance in turnovers the remainder of the season. The current turnover total is a weak predictor future turnovers.

However, turnovers have almost no affect on yards per play for the offense and defense. When we adjust these numbers for Rutgers’ schedule, they look much worse than their team rank suggests.

Despite being a two touchdown favorite at home, Rutgers lost 35-23 to Kent State on Saturday.

Quarterback Gary Nova threw 6 interceptions. He had thrown only 3 interceptions this season before this game. While we discussed forcing turnovers in the email newsletter, giveaways on offense are also random. In college football, the interception rate in the first 6 games of the season explains only 4.6% of the variance in interception rate the remainder of the season.

To see why the offense has such little control, watch the first 10 seconds of the highlights in which defensive end Mark Fackler makes an incredible one handed pick and runs it back for touchdown. (Sorry, ESPN makes you watch a 15 second commercial first.) That doesn’t happen every day.

While we didn’t expect Rutgers to get exposed so soon, the luck or curse of turnovers can strike at any moment during the season.

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Can The Big East Crash The National Championship Game?

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Fast forward to early December and imagine this scenario.

Alabama has just won the SEC Championship game. The undefeated Crimson Tide claim a place in the National Championship game.

For their opponent, there are two options. The first is a one loss Oklahoma team. While the Sooners lost early to Kansas State, they have steamrolled every opponent since. Their resume includes a decisive win over Notre Dame.

The second option is an undefeated Big East team.

Right now, Rutgers, Louisville and Cincinnati are all undefeated. However, none of these teams have earned a ranking in our top 25. The thought of one of these teams in the National Championship game should make you a bit queasy.

What’s the likelihood these teams remain undefeated?

  • Rutgers (27), 9.5%.
  • Cincinnati (30), 3.2%.
  • Louisville (44), 3.0%.

I was a bit shocked that Rutgers has almost a 10% chance. The Scarlet Knights have Army and Kent State on their remaining schedule, making their road the easiest of these three teams. Their most difficult remaining game comes at Cincinnati.

Rutgers deserves credit for scheduling and winning game at Arkansas this year. It’s not their fault that the head coach got fired during the off season, throwing the program into turmoil.

Would an undefeated Big East team deserve a spot in the National Championship game? Please leave us a comment.

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