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Can The Big East Crash The National Championship Game?

By Dr. Ed Feng 4 Comments

Fast forward to early December and imagine this scenario.

Alabama has just won the SEC Championship game. The undefeated Crimson Tide claim a place in the National Championship game.

For their opponent, there are two options. The first is a one loss Oklahoma team. While the Sooners lost early to Kansas State, they have steamrolled every opponent since. Their resume includes a decisive win over Notre Dame.

The second option is an undefeated Big East team.

Right now, Rutgers, Louisville and Cincinnati are all undefeated. However, none of these teams have earned a ranking in our top 25. The thought of one of these teams in the National Championship game should make you a bit queasy.

What’s the likelihood these teams remain undefeated?

  • Rutgers (27), 9.5%.
  • Cincinnati (30), 3.2%.
  • Louisville (44), 3.0%.

I was a bit shocked that Rutgers has almost a 10% chance. The Scarlet Knights have Army and Kent State on their remaining schedule, making their road the easiest of these three teams. Their most difficult remaining game comes at Cincinnati.

Rutgers deserves credit for scheduling and winning game at Arkansas this year. It’s not their fault that the head coach got fired during the off season, throwing the program into turmoil.

Would an undefeated Big East team deserve a spot in the National Championship game? Please leave us a comment.

Thanks for reading.

Filed Under: Alabama Crimson Tide, Cincinnati Bearcats, College Football, College Football 2012, College Football Analytics, Football Analytics, Louisville Cardinals, Oklahoma Sooners, Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Comments

  1. Dan says

    October 19, 2012 at 1:15 pm

    With team strengths as we know them *today*: a one-loss Oklahoma is a better choice than a no-loss Rutgers.

    If you look at the ten most difficult games on Oklahoma and Rutgers’ combined schedules (probably Notre Dame, Cincinnati, West Virginia, TCU, K-State, Louisville, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Temple, and Texas), OU plays seven of them.

    OU losing to a very good Kansas State team is less bad than Rutgers playing a raft of mediocre-or-worse teams (Army, Tulane, Syracuse, UConn, Howard, Pitt, South Fla, Kent State, even Arkansas). That list is *three-quarters* of Rutgers’ schedule. If the Big East wants their champion to play for the national championship, they have to improve interconference play up and down the conference, otherwise strength-of-schedule rankings are going to continue to shoot the Big East champ in the foot.

    Reply
    • Ed Feng says

      October 19, 2012 at 2:02 pm

      Dan,

      Thanks for the comment. If you couldn’t tell from my “queasy” remark, I agree. The Big East does need to improve interconference play. However, that wasn’t the case in 2007 when West Virginia blew their chance at the National Championship game when the lost to Pitt.

      Ed

      Reply
  2. thewiesguy says

    October 19, 2012 at 7:48 pm

    The percentages may say Rutgers but my gut says Louisville. Either way I don’t think they can jump to the front of the BCS line.

    Reply
    • Ed Feng says

      October 19, 2012 at 8:13 pm

      Hmm, you gut seems to be right on. I’m looking at Rutgers at 88th in offense and 87th on defense for games this year. The reason they’ve won so many games is a +13 turnover margin so far. Louisville is 37th on offense and 57th on defense. In my offense and defense breakdown, Louisville looks like the strongest of the 3 teams.

      Reply

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