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How did Amy Nelson’s bracket do in the SB Nation pool?

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

When the field for the NCAA tournament was announced this year, The Power Rank unveiled its interactive bracket. The bracket exemplifies our mission in sports analytics. At its core, the bracket shows the 416 win probabilities for each team in each game. Will your team win? This is our answer. Moreover, the bracket displayed the tournament structure in an elegant, symmetric tree structure that could only come from the mind of graphic designer, Angi Chau, that doesn’t follow sports. Hover over the nodes to get win probabilities for a game. Hover over team names to get the probabilities for advancing to each round.

Fortunately, sports fans also seem to like advanced analytics and data visualization. The bracket spread rapidly through social media, and I soon got a call from Amy Nelson at SB Nation. She just launched Full Nelson, a series of weekly sports documentaries, and wanted to do one on our March Madness analytics. Of course, we were thrilled. She asked me to fill out a bracket for her pool based on our numbers.

How Amy’s bracket was picked. Winning a NCAA tournament pool goes far beyond the probabilities in our interactive bracket. Consider a bracket in which the higher ranked team in The Power Rank won each game. This year, our numbers had Kentucky as the highest ranked team. A bracket with Kentucky as champion would fare well in the pool but not win. People like Grandma Feng, who doesn’t know that a basketball is round, also picked Kentucky to win but also had Ohio and North Carolina State making the Sweet Sixteen. She wins the pool based on shear luck. The larger the number of entrants in a pool, the more likely someone makes some startling picks that win the pool.

In a big pool, one needs to look for undervalued teams. The Power Rank gave Ohio State almost a 12% chance to win the tourney, the second highest likelihood after Kentucky. If you pick Ohio State and they actually win, your bracket picks up 63 points (1 for the first round, 2 for the second round, all the way up to 32 for winning the championship game). More importantly, it’s unlikely that many other people picked Ohio State as the champion. On Yahoo, only 4.5% of brackets did this. In a pool with 100 entrants, 4 people will pick Ohio State on average. Your bracket only has to do better that 4 other people in the early rounds.

For more details about picking an optimal bracket, see this excellent article by Galen Hall. I used these concepts to pick Ohio State for Amy, a scene that shows up in the documentary (see below). However, picking the bracket in general was a frustrating experience. Ideally, one should put some math behind these concepts and optimally pick a bracket based on pool size. For example, an optimal bracket probably would not have Michigan State in the Elite Eight, simply because of the four other top 20 teams (Memphis, Saint Louis, New Mexico and Louisville) in that part of the bracket. But this additional analytics will have to wait until next year.

The roller coaster ride of following a bracket. Amy’s bracket did pretty poorly after the first weekend. For example, it had Kentucky, Wichita State, UNLV and Duke in the Sweet Sixteen from the South region. Only one team, Kentucky, made it that far. When we shot the final scenes for the documentary, we knew the bracket was suffering. I even mention that we didn’t pick the bracket to win the first weekend. A week later, the bracket surged, sporting 3 (Kentucky, Ohio State and Kansas) Final Four teams. Amy would pick up another 64 points, the total points available in the first two rounds, if Ohio State beat Kentucky in the national championship game. With the only bracket with Ohio State as champion, she would easily win the SB Nation pool. However, this scenario had only a 18% chance based on our numbers. Even after picking 3 Final Four teams, the odds of winning a competitive bracket are still rather small.

In the semifinal game in New Orleans, Ohio State faced off against Kansas. While the Jayhawks were down most of the game, their defense took Ohio State out of their half court offense. Kansas coach Bill Self might be the next Coach K, a leader that can motivate his players to a higher intensity level. A late game surge, capped with an off balanced layup that 6′ Elijah Johnson somehow got over 6’8″ Jared Sullinger with a minute to go, sealed the victory for Kansas. Amy wasn’t winning the pool with this bracket. She finished 10th out of 23 people. However, picking Ohio State was still the best strategy for this pool with 23 participants. Had she picked Kentucky over Ohio State in the championship game, she would have finished 4th at best. The top seven brackets all had Kentucky as the winner, and the winning bracket had Ohio and North Carolina State in the Sweet Sixteen. Go Grandma.

Why March Madness is like counting cards. But does that mean The Power Rank is worthless? No. Using our win probabilities, or maybe even those of Ken Pomeroy or Nate Silver, gives you an edge against the competition. It’s like counting cards in black jack. In the long run, people like Jeff Ma made a lot of money in Vegas based on a small edge against the dealer. Does that mean he won every hand? No. Did he win every time he doubled down on 11 against a 6 up card from the dealer? As he details in his book The House Advantage, no. You’re not going to win every March Madness pool using The Power Rank. And for those that believe in the power of numbers in the long run, the NCAA tournament is particularly frustrating since the opportunity arises once a year. But do you want to be Jeff Ma and have a movie made about you? Or do you want to be the person who keeps hitting on 17 expecting that 4?

Check out the Full Nelson episode on The Power Rank.

For more content, follow The Power Rank on Twitter.

Related Posts:

—About The Power Rank.
—Interactive bracket for NCAA Tournament.
—College basketball rankings.

Filed Under: 2012 NCAA Tournament, Amy Nelson, Basketball analytics, College Basketball, Jeff Ma, Kansas Jayhawks, Kentucky Wildcats, Ohio State Buckeyes

How is The Power Rank bracket for Amy Nelson doing? A Final Four preview

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

After the first weekend of the tournament, the bracket I filled out for Amy Nelson wasn’t doing so hot. For example, I had Kentucky, Wichita State, UNLV and Duke in the Sweet Sixteen of the South region. Only one team survived the first round. We were all fully aware of this the last day we shot for the Full Nelson episode on The Power Rank. In the video, I even say we didn’t pick the bracket to win the first two rounds.

How things change in a week. The top teams in The Power Rank played up to form through the second week of the tourney, capped by Ohio State’s win over Syracuse, an overrated one seed. Overall, Amy’s bracket got 3 Final Four teams (Kentucky, Ohio State and Kansas). Luck certainly played a part in this result, as the injury to North Carolina point guard Kendall Marshall made life easier on Kansas. But we’ll take it. Rumor has it that Amy’s bracket is still hanging around in the SBNation pool despite the rough first week. It would certainly benefit from an Ohio State win over Kentucky in the championship game. How likely is that?

1. Ohio State versus Kansas. (0.84)
Ohio State (2) will beat Kansas (5) by 2.1 at a neutral site. Kansas has a 43% chance of beating Ohio State.

Ohio State is a high IQ basketball team, as their passing consistently got the ball into the lane against Syracuse’s zone. Kansas is a basketball team that relies on their abundance of talent. Tyshawn Taylor exemplifies this trait, as he traded ill advised shot for unbelievable shot the entire second half against North Carolina. Ohio State’s Aaron Craft is a defensive star that will make Taylor’s life difficult in the Final Four. This game also features over 500 pounds of mass banging in the paint, as Ohio State’s Jared Sullinger will face Kansas’s Thomas Robinson. Sullinger has a better supporting cast, tipping the odds to a 57% chance that Ohio State makes the championship game.

2. Kentucky versus Louisville. (0.71)
Kentucky (1) will beat Louisville (8) by 6.3 at a neutral site. Louisville has a 30% chance of beating Kentucky.

This week, a Kentucky and Louisville fan got into a fight over this game at a dialysis center. That’s how much this game means to the people of the state. Kentucky, our highest ranked team this year, relies less on the 3 point shot than last year, a trait that makes this team more consistent on offense. Louisville is first in adjusted defense in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings. This is surprising since Rick Pitino isn’t known as a defensive coach. In fact, Louisville has been a top 10 defensive team in 5 out of the 10 years that Pitino has coached. If the defense can slow down Kentucky like they did earlier this year and the Cardinals can actually hit some shots, they have a chance to pull off the upset.

Championship Odds

1. Kentucky, 40.7%
2. Ohio State, 28.7%
3. Kansas, 18.8%
4. Louisville, 11.7%

Kentucky has the highest likelihood of winning it all. However, I picked Ohio State in Amy’s bracket because the Buckeyes are wildly undervalued in the eyes of the public. Only 4.5% of brackets at Yahoo had Ohio State as the champ. Our numbers give a 18% chance that Ohio State beats Kentucky in the championship game.

For more content, follow The Power Rank on Twitter.

Related Posts:

—The Power Rank featured on Full Nelson, a SB Nation documentary.
—Interactive bracket for NCAA Tournament.
—College basketball rankings.

Filed Under: 2012 NCAA Tournament, Basketball analytics, College Basketball, Kansas Jayhawks, Kentucky Wildcats, Louisville Cardinals, Ohio State Buckeyes

The Power Rank featured on Full Nelson, SBNation’s YouTube Channel

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

At last year’s Sloan Sports Analytics conference, I met Jeff Ma, the inspiration behind Bringing Down the House and 21, the movie. More than any other person at the conference, Jeff was interested in my academic approach towards ranking teams and projecting future outcomes. So when Angi Chau and I posted this interactive bracket for the NCAA tournament last week, I emailed Jeff about it. He was kind enough to post it Twitter, which brought it to Amy Nelson’s attention. Amy works at SBNation and just launched a YouTube channel. We got in touch by phone last Wednesday, and in less than 24 hours after that, she was in San Francisco to do a short documentary on The Power Rank and our web of win probabilities. This episode of Full Nelson is the result.

For more content, follow The Power Rank on Twitter.

Related Posts:

—About The Power Rank.
—Interactive bracket for NCAA Tournament.
—College basketball rankings.

Filed Under: 2012 NCAA Tournament, Amy Nelson, Basketball analytics, College Basketball, Jeff Ma

Predictions for the Sweet Sixteen, 2012 NCAA Tournament

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

The ranking of games comes from evaluating team strength and competitiveness. Please read this article for more details.

1. Marquette versus Florida. (0.83)
Marquette (11) will beat Florida (14) by 0.5 at a neutral site. Florida has a 48% chance of beating Marquette.

2. Syracuse versus Wisconsin. (0.80)
Syracuse (5) will beat Wisconsin (9) by 2.1 at a neutral site. Wisconsin has a 43% chance of beating Syracuse.

3. Michigan State versus Louisville. (0.73)
Michigan State (3) will beat Louisville (13) by 4.7 at a neutral site. Louisville has a 35% chance of beating Michigan State.

4. Kentucky versus Indiana. (0.72)
Kentucky (1) will beat Indiana (8) by 5.7 at a neutral site. Indiana has a 32% chance of beating Kentucky.

5. Baylor versus Xavier. (0.68)
Baylor (20) will beat Xavier (44) by 3.3 at a neutral site. Xavier has a 39% chance of beating Baylor.

6. Cincinnati versus Ohio State. (0.63)
Ohio State (2) will beat Cincinnati (27) by 7.6 at a neutral site. Cincinnati has a 27% chance of beating Ohio State.

7. North Carolina State versus Kansas. (0.60)
Kansas (6) will beat North Carolina State (46) by 7.3 at a neutral site. North Carolina State has a 28% chance of beating Kansas.

8. North Carolina versus Ohio. (0.58)
North Carolina (4) will beat Ohio (43) by 8.8 at a neutral site. Ohio has a 24% chance of beating North Carolina.

Filed Under: 2012 NCAA Tournament, Basketball analytics, College Basketball

3 enduring memories from the first weekend of the 2012 tournament

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

There’s no crying in basketball. A game couldn’t end without someone hiding his tears within his jersey on the bench. Memphis player Will Barton took it even further, breaking down during the press conference after a loss to Saint Louis. How did our macho society evolve into this bawl-athon after every NCAA tournament game? I don’t remember a single player crying on the court before Adam Morrison broke down in 2006 after Gonzaga lost to UCLA. If you do, please leave a comment. Did Morrison make it ok to cry?

Thursday was the least exciting day in tournament history Every year, my friends and I descend on a bar at 9am Pacific on the first Thursday of the tournament. This year, Amy Nelson and SBNation’s cameras even showed up to hang out with us and capture the emotion of a dramatic upset. We were all disappointed. Two bad calls from the referees killed UNC Asheville’s attempt to slay number 1 seed Syracuse. Fourteen of sixteen higher seeded teams won. Even the upsets by VCU and Colorado didn’t feel all that dramatic since the higher seeds (Wichita State and UNLV) didn’t come from traditional power conferences. This is what my friend Jeremy Jones thought by about 4pm:

The numbers behind two 2 seeds going down. However, Friday brought the upsets we’re used to seeing in the Round of 64. First, Missouri lost to Norfolk State, a team that entered the tourney ranked 177th in The Power Rank. We gave Norfolk State a 10% chance of winning, less than 16 seeded UNC Asheville and Vermont. Then, Duke, perhaps the most iconic college basketball program of the past two decades, lost to Lehigh. The result wasn’t even in question the last minute of the game. We had Duke ranked 11th, implying their 2 seed was a generous gift from the selection committee. Lehigh entered the tourney ranked 67th and had a 30% chance of pulling off the upset.

In the 52 games of the tourney, the team ranked higher in The Power Rank has won 36 times, or 69% of the time. We’ve updated our interactive bracket to reflect the 16 remaining teams in the tourney. Hover over the circles or team names to uncover the win probabilities.

For more content, follow The Power Rank on Twitter.

Related Posts:

—About The Power Rank.
—Interactive bracket for NCAA Tournament.
—College basketball rankings.

Filed Under: 2012 NCAA Tournament, Basketball analytics, College Basketball

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