THE POWER RANK

Predictions for the Round of 32, NCAA Tournament, 2012

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Interactive bracket with win probabilites for the entire bracket.

The ranking of games comes from evaluating team strength and competitiveness. Please read this article for more details.

Predictions for Round of 32:

1. Vanderbilt versus Wisconsin. (0.84)
Wisconsin (10) will beat Vanderbilt (11) by 0.3 at a neutral site. Vanderbilt has a 49% chance of beating Wisconsin.

2. New Mexico versus Louisville. (0.84)
New Mexico (13) will beat Louisville (15) by 0.1 at a neutral site. Louisville has a 50% chance of beating New Mexico.

3. Murray State versus Marquette. (0.80)
Marquette (12) will beat Murray State (21) by 1.1 at a neutral site. Murray State has a 46% chance of beating Marquette.

4. Cincinnati versus Florida State. (0.75)
Florida State (22) will beat Cincinnati (29) by 1.7 at a neutral site. Cincinnati has a 44% chance of beating Florida State.

5. Xavier versus Lehigh. (0.74)
Xavier (47) will beat Lehigh (48) by 0.1 at a neutral site. Lehigh has a 50% chance of beating Xavier.

6. South Florida versus Ohio. (0.71)
Ohio (43) will beat South Florida (55) by 0.9 at a neutral site. South Florida has a 47% chance of beating Ohio.

7. Michigan State versus Saint Louis. (0.71)
Michigan State (3) will beat Saint Louis (18) by 5.3 at a neutral site. Saint Louis has a 33% chance of beating Michigan State.

8. Syracuse versus Kansas State. (0.70)
Syracuse (7) will beat Kansas State (25) by 4.5 at a neutral site. Kansas State has a 36% chance of beating Syracuse.

9. Gonzaga versus Ohio State. (0.66)
Ohio State (2) will beat Gonzaga (23) by 6.8 at a neutral site. Gonzaga has a 29% chance of beating Ohio State.

10. North Carolina versus Creighton. (0.65)
North Carolina (4) will beat Creighton (27) by 6.8 at a neutral site. Creighton has a 29% chance of beating North Carolina.

11. VCU versus Indiana. (0.65)
Indiana (8) will beat VCU (42) by 5.2 at a neutral site. VCU has a 33% chance of beating Indiana.

12. North Carolina State versus Georgetown. (0.64)
Georgetown (17) will beat North Carolina State (50) by 4.6 at a neutral site. North Carolina State has a 36% chance of beating Georgetown.

13. Kansas versus Purdue. (0.64)
Kansas (5) will beat Purdue (35) by 6.5 at a neutral site. Purdue has a 30% chance of beating Kansas.

14. Kentucky versus Iowa State. (0.59)
Kentucky (1) will beat Iowa State (30) by 9.4 at a neutral site. Iowa State has a 22% chance of beating Kentucky.

15. Colorado versus Baylor. (0.56)
Baylor (20) will beat Colorado (84) by 6.3 at a neutral site. Colorado has a 30% chance of beating Baylor.

16. Florida versus Norfolk State. (0.42)
Florida (16) will beat Norfolk State (136) by 10.6 at a neutral site. Norfolk State has a 20% chance of beating Florida.

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Related Posts:

—About The Power Rank.
—Interactive bracket for NCAA Tournament.
—College basketball rankings.

Four teams to watch during the tournament

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Gabe Avins won a state high school basketball championship in California. The junior at the University of Pennsylvania has graciously agreed lend his basketball wisdom and analytics prowess to The Power Rank. Moreover, he endorses our interactive bracket with the win probabilities for each team to make each round. This is his first post.

The rank and rating next to each team name is from The Power Rank college basketball rankings. The rating gives a predicted point spread on a neutral court against the average DI team (this year, Charleston Southern).

Ohio State (2nd, 17.8). Don’t let Sunday’s loss to Michigan State fool you—the Buckeyes are legit. In the week leading up to the conference final, Ohio State beat Michigan State in East Lansing (the only team to do so this year) and easily handled tournament bound Purdue and Michigan on a neutral court. Much of their success can be attributed to their stout defense, which ranks first in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive efficiency statistic and allows offensive rebounds on only 24.8% of possessions (best among NCAA tournament teams). The Buckeyes are no slouch on offense either, turning the ball over on only 17.4% of possessions (25th best in NCAA) and converting 53.8% of their 2-point field goals (12th best).

Prediction: Loss to Kentucky in the Championship Game.

Wichita State (8th, 14.0). Arguably the most dangerous of the mid-majors, Wichita State sits at 8th in The Power Rank and in the top 20 of Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency rankings. This is a veteran bunch—their top five scorers are all seniors, headlined by do-it-all center Garrett Stutz and the sweet shooting Joe Ragland (50% 3FG). The selection committee did them no favors, however, putting them in the same half of the bracket as both Kentucky and Indiana. Look for the Shockers to get past Indiana and play Kentucky tough.

Prediction: Loss to Kentucky in the Sweet 16.

Murray State (22nd, 11.6). The Racers probably have a legitimate gripe with the selection committee after receiving a #6 seed despite being the only team in the field with one loss. Isaiah Canaan is as dangerous as they come at the point guard position, leading an offense that ranks 9th in the NCAA in effective FG% and 5th in 3FG%. If they get by Colorado State, a third round game with Big East powerhouse Marquette looms. The Power Rank sees an incredibly close game here, predicting Marquette by 0.7 (essentially a toss up). However, from our interactive bracket, Murray State actually has a higher chance of making the Sweet 16 (38%) than Marquette (37.7%) since Marquette faces a tougher first round test in the winner of the Iona versus BYU game.

Prediction: Loss to Missouri in the Sweet 16.

Belmont (29th, 10.2). Belmont comes into the tournament riding a 14-game win streak that they will try to build upon in Nashville. The Bruins will look to ride their offense to a successful opening weekend; the team ranks 12th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency according to kenpom.com and sports a 55% effective FG% (good for 5th in the NCAA). Though the #3 seed knocks off the #14 seed more than 80% of the time historically, The Power Rank gives Belmont a 44.5% chance of scoring the upset and favors the Bruins over both of their potential second round opponents, SDSU and NC State.

Prediction: Loss to Kansas in the Sweet 16.

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Predictions for the first 32 games of the NCAA Tournament

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For a more visual, interactive way of seeing these numbers, check out our bracket with all 416 win probabilities for the entire tournament.

Western Kentucky (188) will beat Mississippi Valley State (233) by 2.6 at a neutral site. Mississippi Valley State has a 42% chance of beating Western Kentucky.

Iona (49) will beat Brigham Young (57) by 0.7 at a neutral site. Brigham Young has a 48% chance of beating Iona.

California (38) will beat South Florida (71) by 2.9 at a neutral site. South Florida has a 41% chance of beating California.

Lamar (108) will beat Vermont (136) by 1.6 at a neutral site. Vermont has a 45% chance of beating Lamar.

Iowa State (35) will beat Connecticut (40) by 0.4 at a neutral site. Connecticut has a 49% chance of beating Iowa State.

Wichita State (8) will beat VCU (52) by 6.3 at a neutral site. VCU has a 31% chance of beating Wichita State.

Indiana (9) will beat New Mexico State (54) by 6.0 at a neutral site. New Mexico State has a 31% chance of beating Indiana.

UNLV (25) will beat Colorado (90) by 6.0 at a neutral site. Colorado has a 31% chance of beating UNLV.

Baylor (19) will beat South Dakota State (56) by 4.5 at a neutral site. South Dakota State has a 36% chance of beating Baylor.

Notre Dame (41) will beat Xavier (50) by 0.8 at a neutral site. Xavier has a 47% chance of beating Notre Dame.

Duke (11) will beat Lehigh (66) by 6.2 at a neutral site. Lehigh has a 31% chance of beating Duke.

Michigan State (3) will beat Long Island (141) by 15.9 at a neutral site. Long Island has a 11% chance of beating Michigan State.

Memphis (14) will beat Saint Louis (20) by 0.8 at a neutral site. Saint Louis has a 47% chance of beating Memphis.

New Mexico (12) will beat Long Beach State (33) by 3.1 at a neutral site. Long Beach State has a 40% chance of beating New Mexico.

Louisville (15) will beat Davidson (47) by 4.6 at a neutral site. Davidson has a 35% chance of beating Louisville.

Murray State (22) will beat Colorado State (93) by 6.9 at a neutral site. Colorado State has a 29% chance of beating Murray State.

Florida (17) will beat Virginia (30) by 2.0 at a neutral site. Virginia has a 43% chance of beating Florida.

Missouri (5) will beat Norfolk State (176) by 16.4 at a neutral site. Norfolk State has a 10% chance of beating Missouri.

Syracuse (7) will beat North Carolina Asheville (119) by 12.3 at a neutral site. North Carolina Asheville has a 17% chance of beating Syracuse.

Kansas State (24) will beat Southern Miss (65) by 4.2 at a neutral site. Southern Miss has a 37% chance of beating Kansas State.

Vanderbilt (13) will beat Harvard (42) by 4.4 at a neutral site. Harvard has a 36% chance of beating Vanderbilt.

Wisconsin (10) will beat Montana (106) by 9.5 at a neutral site. Montana has a 22% chance of beating Wisconsin.

Cincinnati (34) will beat Texas (36) by 0.3 at a neutral site. Texas has a 49% chance of beating Cincinnati.

Florida State (21) will beat St. Bonaventure (69) by 5.3 at a neutral site. St. Bonaventure has a 33% chance of beating Florida State.

Gonzaga (26) will beat West Virginia (37) by 1.2 at a neutral site. West Virginia has a 46% chance of beating Gonzaga.

Ohio State (2) will beat Loyola (MD) (132) by 15.6 at a neutral site. Loyola (MD) has a 11% chance of beating Ohio State.

Creighton (27) will beat Alabama (28) by 0.1 at a neutral site. Alabama has a 50% chance of beating Creighton.

Michigan (23) will beat Ohio (48) by 3.3 at a neutral site. Ohio has a 39% chance of beating Michigan.

San Diego State (46) will beat North Carolina State (55) by 0.5 at a neutral site. North Carolina State has a 48% chance of beating San Diego State.

Georgetown (18) will beat Belmont (29) by 1.7 at a neutral site. Belmont has a 44% chance of beating Georgetown.

St. Mary’s (31) will beat Purdue (39) by 0.7 at a neutral site. Purdue has a 48% chance of beating St. Mary’s.

Kansas (6) will beat Detroit (116) by 12.9 at a neutral site. Detroit has a 16% chance of beating Kansas.

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Related Posts:

—About The Power Rank.
—Interactive bracket for NCAA Tournament.
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5 things numbers say about the 2012 NCAA Tournament

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Last year, I was talking with my friend Don Ward. He’s a classic dude, living life on sports, beer and the San Francisco Giants’ last championship. Each year, he fills out a bracket in a fairly large pool. When I asked him whether he used The Power Rank, he said no. It took too much time. Well, Don, we’ve tried to make your life easier this year. Working with data visualization goddess Angi Chau, The Power Rank presents an interactive bracket with all 416 win probabilities for the entire tournament. Check it out. Hover over the circles to see the likelihood that a team wins a game. The probabilities are based on 100,000 simulations of the tournament using our rankings. Use it, Don.

What do these numbers say about the tournament?

1. Kentucky has a 16.5% chance of winning the tournament. Really? That small? For a team that would not have lost this season if not for a last second 3 against Indiana and 8 minute stretch without a field goal against Vanderbilt? Yes. I was a little surprised at this number, but it just shows how competitive college basketball is. kenpom.com, the most complete college basketball analytics site, gives Kentucky a 19.5% chance to win it all. If you want to play Nostradamus with your friends or a hot date, predict Kentucky will not win the tournament. The odds are in your favor.

2. The most deserving team that didn’t make the field is… Drexel? The Dragons finished the regular season 58th in The Power Rank. Seton Hall? 51st in the rankings. Actually, Middle Tennessee State at 44th was the most deserving team to not make the tourney. The Blue Raiders earned their rank by walloping UCLA (89) by 20 on the road, beating Belmont (29) at home and giving Vanderbilt (13) all they could handle. I didn’t hear much about Middle Tennessee State on ESPN yesterday.

3. Will a number 1 seed lose in the first round? A number 1 seed has never lost in the first round. Never. I think I have a bet with Jeremy Templeton that this will happen sometime soon. We may have made this bet 5 years ago, with a 8 year window for the unthinkable to occur. North Carolina Asheville has a 16.5% chance of upsetting Syracuse. That’s quite a bit larger than the 5.2% chance Syracuse has to win the entire tournament.

4. First round upsets. Each of the past two years, we’ve identified 6 games in which a double digit seeded team has about a 50-50 chance of pulling off an upset. Each year, 3 of these teams won. This year, The Power Rank identifies only 3 such games: Texas over Cincinnati (49.2%), North Carolina State over San Diego State (48.3%) and Belmont over Georgetown (44.5%).

5. Wichita State really is that good. The Shockers are 8th in our rankings, ahead of Duke. Against a very good Creighton team, they easily won despite the foul trouble of big guy Garrett Stutz. Creighton just couldn’t stop Joe Ragland. Wichita State won’t shoot that well every game, but they’re a serious threat. We give them a 40.0% chance of making the Sweet Sixteen and a 10.2% chance of the Final Four. These numbers are not biased by the willingness of @ShockerHoops to retweet our stuff.

Imagine if there were no NCAA men’s basketball tournament. The season just ended with an invitation tournament with a long tradition. No real champion would be crowned. Perhaps college football should turn towards the future and tap the excitement of a single elimination tournament. Andy Staples at SI.com suggests that the university presidents might finally be coming around.