THE POWER RANK

  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • CBB Rank
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
  • Log in

Podcast: Edward Golden on NFL, college basketball betting

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Edward Golden, the founder of Right Angle Sports (RAS), joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. RAS is one of the only pick selling services with a long term track record of winning and honesty. Highlights include:

  • How Edward built up RAS (7:15)
  • His approach to handicapping sports (15:00)
  • A week 9 NFL bet he likes (16:40)
  • College basketball betting (20:58)
  • How to run a picks service so that customers can get down (27:30)
  • How he balances betting with the service (32:13)
  • How the betting world has changed with legalization in the US (39:30)

There are not too many interviews out there with this betting legend. To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

This episode of The Football Analytics Show is also available on:

  • YouTube
  • Spotify
  • Apple Podcasts

Support the podcast on Patreon and get an episode on NFL passing metrics and what they say about Green Bay and Tampa Bay.

Filed Under: College Basketball, National Football League, Podcast

Villanova vs Kansas, Final Four 2022

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Villanova shouldn’t have made the Final Four.

In an intense Elite 8 game against Houston, Villanova won 50-44. A big factor was that Houston made one of 20 three point shots.

That is not a typo. Houston went 1-20 from three. This has about the same likelihood that Chris Rock gets slapped at the Oscars.

As a 2 seed, Villanova was not one of the teams I wrote about as a primary contender to win the tournament in The Power Rank 2022 Bracket Advice. In my most predictive college basketball numbers before the tournament, the Wildcats ranked 12th and had a 3% tourney win probability.

On offense, Villanova continues to field teams with athletic wing players that shoot a high rate of threes. This season, 46% of their field goal attempts came from behind the arc, 20th most in the nation. On offense, they rank 9th in my adjusted points per possession.

Villanova also has a respectable rank of 17th on defense. However, they have benefitted from extraordinary three point defense (30%). There is nothing in Villanova’s program history to suggest that this rate won’t regress to the college basketball average of 34%.

In addition, Villanova guard Justin Moore tore his achilles against Houston and won’t play in the Final Four. They face the remaining one seed in the tournament: Kansas. My numbers predict Kansas by 1.6 points. The Moore injury might be impacting the markets, as Kansas is -4.5 as of Wednesday afternoon at most sports books.

However, there are two reasons to like Villanova against the spread in this game.

First, let’s question how much the injury to Moore matters. On my podcast, both Ken Pomeroy and Alan Boston, college basketball analytics and betting legends, respectively, said injuries can be overrated.

While Moore is the second leading scorer for Villanova by points per game, he has poor efficiency numbers compared to his teammates. Here are his shooting numbers this season compared to the college basketball average:

  • 44% from two (50% average)
  • 36% from three (34% average)

Moore’s overall offensive rating has never been that high for Villanova over three seasons.

Caleb Daniels will step into the starting lineup for Villanova. Depth is potentially an issue. For example, Villanova only had six players with significant minutes against Houston. It seems like Chris Arcidiacono will now see more minutes as the sixth man.

Second, the markets have moved against Kansas over the past two games.

  • Kansas -7 vs Providence in the Sweet 16 went to -6.5
  • Kansas -6 vs Miami in the Elite 8 went to -5.5

This market movement went against both my best college basketball predictions and bets that I made. Kansas failed to cover against Providence and faced a six point deficit at the half against Miami. The Jayhawks did blow out Miami in the second half to cover.

Before the start of the tournament, Kansas was a team that I considered a national title contender. In addition to their strong numbers, Kansas features Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun, two wing players that should be first round NBA picks.

Still, the markets didn’t trust Kansas this past weekend compared to my predictions. Now, the markets have Kansas -4.5 compared to my prediction that has Kansas -1.6. You have to believe that Moore’s injury is worth three points to not find value in Villanova.

That seems unlikely, and I see value in Villanova +4.5.

Sports betting with a PhD edge

This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter at 12:40pm Eastern on Wednesday, March 30. This newsletter is a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

The primary emphasis is on the NFL and college football, but predictions and content will cover golf and NBA during the upcoming months.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”








 

 
 

Filed Under: College Basketball, The Power Rank Newsletter

Podcast: Sweet 16 predictions

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

I talk about my Sweet 16 predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank and analysis on three games:

  • Arizona vs Houston
  • Purdue vs St. Peter’s
  • Kansas vs Providence

Filed Under: College Basketball, Podcast

Members: Sweet Sixteen

By Dr. Ed Feng 1 Comment

This content is for members only

Filed Under: College Basketball, Member Content

Bracket Wisdom #9: Bracket analysis

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

While the NCAA tournament selection committee has gotten better over the years, they made some seeding mistakes this year. Ed Feng identifies the reason for these mistakes before discussing:

  • The Region of Death
  • The Region of Eternal Life (easiest)
  • The team with a very kind path

Filed Under: Bracket Wisdom, College Basketball, Podcast

Next Page »

Data driven betting information

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.

To sign up for The Power Rank's email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"

Popular Articles

  • How to predict interceptions in the NFL
  • 5 insights from academic research on predicting world soccer/football matches
  • How to win your NCAA tournament pool
  • The ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics
  • Accurate football predictions with linear regression
  • The surprising truth about passing and rushing in the NFL
  • Football analytics resource guide
  • The Reason You Can’t Avoid The Curse of Small Sample Size
  • The essential guide to predictive CFB rankings
  • How computer rankings make you smarter about sports
  • How to win your college football bowl pool
  • Do you make these 3 mistakes with college football statistics?
  • The Top 10 Things to Know About The Power Rank’s Methods

Recent Articles

  • Podcast: The secret edge in Super Bowl LVII between Kansas City and Philadelphia
  • 7-Nugget Saturday, February 4, 2023
  • Podcast: Hitman on NFL betting, Super Bowl LVII
  • Members: Super Bowl game and prop analysis
  • 7-Nugget Saturday, January 28, 2023

© 2023 The Power Rank Inc., All rights reserved.

About, Terms of Use, Privacy Policy

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.


These are the goals with every correspondence, which cover bets on the NFL and college football.


To sign up for The Power Rank's free email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"


No thanks, I'll make my predictions without data and analytics.

{"cookieName":"wBounce","isAggressive":false,"isSitewide":true,"hesitation":"","openAnimation":false,"exitAnimation":false,"timer":"","sensitivity":"","cookieExpire":"","cookieDomain":"","autoFire":"","isAnalyticsEnabled":true}
  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • CBB Rank
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member