THE POWER RANK

Tyrann Mathieu wins the September, 2011 Heisman Trophy

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Mathieu, or Matthew
Tyrann blows up plays, scores points
No brainer, Heisman

If the season ended today, Tyrann Mathieu should win the Heisman Trophy for most outstanding college football player. Mathieu, pronounced “Matthew” if you believe the cultured commentators on ESPN and ABC, plays cornerback and special teams for LSU. At a pint sized 5-9, 185 pounds, he has a propensity for making game changing plays. Against West Virginia this week, he forced two turnovers in the first half, including a play in which he tipped a pass, caught it and ran back to the West Virginia one yard line. Two plays later, LSU punched the ball in for a touchdown to take a 27-7 lead into halftime, effectively killing any hopes of a close game. LSU won 47-20 on the road in Morgantown. During the first week of the season against Oregon, Mathieu stormed down the field on a LSU punt, striped the Oregon returner of the ball, scooped up the ball after a single bounce on the turf, and ran in for a touchdown. The play gave LSU a 9-6 lead and started the Oregon turnover fest that led to a 40-27 LSU win. His knack for creating turnovers doesn’t seem to be an aberration, as Mathieu was a part of 10 turnovers last year as a freshman. Moreover, he starts at cornerback on an LSU defense that many consider one of the nation’s best.

Mathieu’s play resembles that of Lakers guard Derek Fisher, a player whose strips and turnovers changes games. Of course, these hard nosed plays don’t get much attention next to Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal. At LSU, Mathieu gets overshadowed by mammoth defensive linemen and the even bigger personality of LSU coach Les Miles. But make no mistake, Mathieu has been the most outstanding college football player this year. Want to vote for Landry Jones of Oklahoma for the Heisman? He has a 5-4 touchdown to interception ratio. How about Stanford’s Andrew Luck? Against San Jose State (108), Duke (86) and Arizona (62), he’s completing 67% of his passes, less than the 70.7% from last year. Well, Luck is still a strong candidate, but Mathieu is making plays against Oregon (3), Mississippi State (25) and West Virginia (35). Kellen Moore? No one one in the east or south is voting for a quarterback from Boise State. Voters tend to cling to the numbers that quarterbacks and running backs produce, statistics that are largely dependent on strength of schedule. We’ll have a lot to say later this season about how statistics depend on schedule. But it also helps to watch the games. Tyrann Mathieu has been the most outstanding player in college football this September, but he will have to score 3 touchdowns in a 21-19 win at Alabama later this season to even enter the Heisman discussion.

With their win over West Virginia, LSU remains at 4th in The Power Rank. The algorithm tends to penalize teams that do not score a lot of points, as margin of victory matters. However, LSU has plenty of opportunities to beat highly ranked teams like Alabama and move up. The Tigers look particularly scary with a competent quarterback in Jarrett Lee. Late in the second quarter against West Virginia, LSU faked a run on 3rd and short, and Lee threw a pass towards Odell Beckham. While Beckham had to jump to make the catch, Lee’s pass was accurate enough that Beckham never broke stride and beat the West Virginia defense to endzone. Lee’s zero interceptions in this game must seem remarkable to a fan base that saw him throw 16 interceptions in 2008. In general this season, LSU has enjoyed large turnover margins against Oregon (4-1) and West Virginia (4-0). Perhaps we should revise our thoughts about Les Miles and his lucky ways?

1. Boise State. Boise State led Tulsa 34-0 in the middle of the third quarter when they pulled quarterback Kellen Moore. The won 41-21 but left room to wonder whether the margin of victory could have been larger. In the end, it doesn’t matter this week, as our rolling one year window of games dropped a win against Oregon State last year. While this win was solid against last year’s Oregon State team, the Beavers are having a terrible season, losing to Sacramento State at home, going 0-3 and dropping to 67th in The Power Rank. Boise State remains on top.

2. Alabama. With the help of both a special teams and a defensive touchdown, Alabama rolled over Arkansas 38-14. Alabama quarterback AJ McCarron threw for 10.0 yards per pass attempt with 20 attempts, and the Tide had zero turnovers. This ability to take care of the ball seems characteristic of Nick Saban’s teams, as Alabama has always ended the year with a positive turnover margin since Saban took over in 2007 according to College Football Stats.

3. Oregon. The Duck’s road game against Arizona provided a chance to compare Oregon with Stanford, who beat Arizona 37-10 last week in Tuscon. Oregon won 56-31, and the 25 point margin of victory is very similar to the 27 point margin of Stanford. However, Oregon’s offense scored more points while Stanford’s defense held Arizona to fewer points. Oregon accumulated 8.8 yards per rush attempt for 415 total rushing yards against Arizona.

4. LSU. Urban Meyer joined the ABC crew late in the game against West Virginia. They reminded him about the miracle fake field goal attempt that Les Miles called against Meyer’s Florida team last year. Watch how the ball just bounces right into the kickers hands, one of the huge reasons we asked last year whether Les Miles has sold his soul.

5. Oklahoma. The Sooners avenged last year’s loss to Missouri with a 38-28 win in Norman. However, Oklahoma didn’t come close to covering the 20 point spread. The defense allowed Missouri quarterback James Franklin to throw for 8.8 yards per attempt while running back Henry Josey racked up 9.5 yards per carry, including a 48 yard touchdown run. This wasn’t the performance of a national championship team, and The Power Rank rightly places Oklahoma at 5th.

6. Stanford. Take a week off and drop 3 places? For these early season rankings, we’re using a one year window of games and counting this year’s games twice. This system dropped a definitive 37-14 Stanford win over 21st ranked Notre Dame from the games used in the rankings. However, in rankings that only consider this year’s games, Stanford is 2nd behind Alabama. The Cardinal must wait awhile before getting any top ranked competition, as they face UCLA (90), Colorado (73) and Washington State (74) over the next 3 weeks.

7. Wisconsin. Despite the weak competition against UNLV (110), Oregon State (67) and Northern Illinois (52), Wisconsin has moved from a 15.4 rating at the start of the season to 18.4. This rating is inflated a bit since the ranking considers Oregon State and Northern Illinois games from last year when these two teams were much better. However, we’ll find out more about Wisconsin when Nebraska visits Madison this weekend. Bet against quarterback Russell Wilson throwing for 12.5 yards per pass attempt against Nebraska.

8. Oklahoma State. In one of the strangest plays ever, stellar Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon just dropped the ball a yard from the endzone. Oklahoma State led 24-20 at this point in the 3rd quarter and luckily didn’t need this score to prevail 30-29 against Texas A&M. In our preview, we noted that Texas A&M held Oklahoma State to only 6.8 yards per pass attempt last year in Stillwater. This year, Brandon Weeden threw for 438 yards but still only managed to get 7.3 yards per attempt. However, it wasn’t enough in this close game.

9. Auburn. Are the Tigers still in the top ten? Rankings are never perfect, and Auburn remains in the top ten based on last year’s games in the moving one year window of games. For rankings with only this year’s games, Auburn is 44th with a 3.78 rating.

10. TCU. The jury is still out on this TCU team. In the last two weeks, they have beat up on Louisiana Monroe and Portland State. Louisiana Monroe did take a 17-14 lead in the 1st quarter before the Horned Frogs steam rolled them 38-14. In rankings with only this year’s games, TCU is 26th, which is not an unreasonable guess at where this team will end the season.

Boise State tops Week 1 rankings

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March into the South
Win a game, beat SEC
Boise State earns top

College football is back. After months of talk and speculation, fans can finally enjoy a weekend of action with some meaningful games. Boise State marched into the heart of the south and beat Georgia. Oregon traveled to Dallas to face LSU but didn’t fare as well. Final exams in college football start week 1, and we found out a bit about some teams with national championship aspirations. However, a single game for each team doesn’t give The Power Rank much data to contemplate. In fact, we usually only use games from the current year, which implies waiting until week 4 for the first rankings. With such sparse data, one got whiplash trying to following the rankings those early weeks, as teams would bounce from 20th to 60th to 14th in the span of weeks (USC last year). This year, our early season rankings use a moving one year window of games. For week 1, we use all games since week 2 of last year, and this season’s games have twice the importance as last year’s games.

With this system, Boise State tops our week 1 rankings. They played a road game against Georgia in Atlanta and won 35-21. The margin of victory could have been larger, as Boise State got the ball on downs at the Georgia 3 yard line with 8 seconds remaining. Instead of attempting to impress any voters with another score, they kneeled on the ball. Classy. Oregon finished atop the rankings last season but dropped to second after a 40-27 loss to LSU. In the AP poll, the Ducks dropped from 3rd to 13th. This highlights the key distinction between The Power Rank and human rankings: homo sapiens place an enormous importance on the recent past. The algorithm, as it contains games from last year, remembers that Oregon was a pretty good team last year. Particularly towards the end of this season, we’ll see how The Power Rank tends to stabilize while human polls will make drastic changes based on a single game.

1. Boise State. Rivals.com had Kellen Moore as the 31st best quarterback in the 2006 recruiting class. The most similar quarterback was Matt Ballenger, who went to Colorado. One day, we here at The Power Rank hope to understand the success of the Boise State football program. Part of the answer must be their ability to recruit good football players no matter how goofy they look.

2. Oregon. Against LSU, the Ducks had 4 turnovers, including a play in which punt returner Kenyon Barner handed the ball to LSU for a touchdown. No team in America is going to beat a tough LSU team when they lose the turnover battle 4-1.

3. Auburn. Utah State marched into Jordan-Hare stadium and held a 38-28 lead with 3:38 left in the game against the defending national champions. Auburn needed two touchdown drives sandwiched around a recovered onside kick to win the game. Coach Gene Chizik said, “Offensively and defensively we’re a long way off of being able to win very many games right now.”

6. TCU. Baylor scored 50 points against TCU on Friday night. In 8 games, the Mountain West scored 75 points against TCU last year. The Horned Frogs lost a wild game to Baylor in which they overcame a 24 point 4th quarter deficit before losing on a field goal. What kind of adjustments will coach Gary Patterson make after this game?

7. LSU. Quarterback Jarrett Lee threw for 4.5 yards an attempt against Oregon. He missed a number of short, easy throws during the game. What would LSU look like with Darron Thomas as quarterback?

Rankings after Week 1, 2011.

1. Boise State, 13-1, 24.31
2. Oregon, 11-3, 20.71
3. Auburn, 15-0, 20.02
4. Stanford, 13-1, 19.84
5. Alabama, 11-3, 19.54
6. TCU, 12-2, 19.04
7. LSU, 12-2, 18.72
8. Ohio State, 13-1, 17.74
9. Oklahoma, 13-2, 17.06
10. Arkansas, 11-3, 16.15
11. Nevada, 12-1, 15.50
12. Wisconsin, 12-2, 15.02
13. Virginia Tech, 13-2, 13.79
14. Nebraska, 11-4, 13.62
15. Missouri, 11-3, 13.15
16. Oklahoma State, 12-2, 12.41
17. Texas A&M, 10-4, 11.77
18. South Carolina, 10-5, 11.63
19. Florida State, 11-4, 11.54
20. North Carolina State, 10-4, 10.49
21. Iowa, 9-5, 10.42
22. West Virginia, 10-4, 10.14
23. San Diego State, 10-4, 10.09
24. Arizona State, 7-6, 9.53
25. Mississippi State, 10-4, 8.59

The Boise State, Georgia showdown in Atlanta

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Georgia, Boise State
Huge showdown in Atlanta
Changes since last time?

Six years ago, Boise State opened its season with a trip to Athens to play Georgia. Expectations were high, as Boise State won 13 games the previous year and quarterback Jared Zabransky was a preseason Heisman trophy contender. But Georgia beat down the Broncos, holding a 38-0 lead in the third quarter before Boise State got on the scoreboard. Zabransky ended up on the bench after 6 first half turnovers.

This weekend, Boise State travels south to meet Georgia again. The Power Rank gives us a means to compare the fortunes of these programs since their last meeting. Using the scores of all games played in Division I each year, the algorithm assigns each team a rating that estimates its strength compared to the average bowl subdivision team. Georgia’s rating of 7.7 means they would have an average margin of victory of 7.7 against an average team.
The Power Rank comparison of Boise State and Georgia from 2005 through 2010.
Chris Peterson took over as Boise State coach in 2006 when the now unemployed Dan Hawkins took the Colorado job. The Broncos went undefeated, earning a berth to the Fiesta Bowl against Oklahoma. In the greatest football game I’ve ever seen, Boise State used a hook and ladder play on 4th and a mile to tie the game in regulation, and then won in overtime with a statue of liberty play. After a down year in 2007, Boise State has become an elite college football team over the last three years. The team with blue uniforms and blue turf annually ignite the debate about college football’s unfair championship system.

After slipping a bit in 2006, Georgia rose back to the top of the SEC in 2007, sharing the SEC East title. They showed the strength of the SEC that bowl season by walloping a previously unbeaten Hawaii team 41-10. The defense was so physical that the announcers hoped that Hawaii would pull quarterback Colt Brennan so he wouldn’t get hurt in his last game. However, 2008 marked a turning point in the program. With quarterback Matt Stafford and running back Knowshon Moreno, the Bulldogs started the season ranked number one. However, they lost an early eason game to Alabama before two late season losses to rivals Florida and Georgia Tech. The program has slid slightly lower in the next two years, putting coach Mark Richt’s job security in question.

The Power Rank makes a prediction for each game through the difference in rating between two teams. For the upcoming Bronco Bulldog showdown, the algorithm gives Boise State by 15. However, there are many reasons to question this prediction. First, we have yet to quantify how a previous season’s rankings perform on early season games. Second, it’s a home game for Georgia, as they’ll drive the hour and a half from Athens to Atlanta while Boise State will fly across the country. Lastly, Georgia has talent. Coach Richt always recruits well, and his latest crop might be the best yet. Do these factors account for the 15 point distinction between these two teams? Do they narrow the gap past the line of 3.5 points in favor of Boise State? Probably not.

College Football Rankings, Week 13

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Imagine a nonsense world in which only two teams qualify for the tournament to crown a national champion in college football. A silly place for sure, but The Power Rank still has an opinon on these matters.

Oregon stays at number one in the rankings this week. After getting a scare in the game at California, the Ducks stormed back this week with a solid win at home over a good Arizona team. Oregon has over a 7 point lead over all other teams, which means they should be at least a touchdown point favorite against any other team on a neutral site. The Ducks easily qualify for our hypothetical tournament of two.

The remaining team to qualify is more nebulous, as TCU, Stanford and Boise State form a tight pack in the 2 through 4 slots. TCU finished a perfect 12-0 season with a big win over a woeful New Mexico. They looked particularly good a few weeks ago after beating highly ranked Utah, but Utah went on to lose to Notre Dame the following week. Stanford trails TCU by less than half a point, so a game between these two teams would be a dead heat destined for overtime. While Stanford lost to top ranked Oregon, their body of work keeps them close to TCU.

The third contender for the second playoff slot is Boise State, a team that lost to rival Nevada in the most dramatic fashion on Friday. The entire fourth quarter was a storyline that you just can’t make up. In the end, Boise State’s kicker missed two short field goals that allowed Nevada to win the game in overtime by 3. But Boise State was only a 6 point favorite in the game according to our system, and a 9 point deviation is quite common. Boise State ends up fourth this week, barely behind Stanford. There’s no shame in a road loss to a good Nevada team that jumps to 10th in the rankings.

Three teams, one slot. It’s a cruel world. Moreover, The Power Rank doesn’t assign a team’s value with absolute certainty. A vast range of elements affect the outcome of games, from a lucky bounce off the turf to pulling the starters in the middle of the third quarter. Just like it’s impossible to measure the position and velocity of an atom precisely, there is an error in a team’s value. In an ideal world, The Power Rank would quantify this error. For now, it’s reasonable to assume TCU, Stanford, and Boise State are all equally worthy competitors to Oregon.

If a hypothetical media ran its mouth in this nonsense world, there might be chatter about two other teams: Auburn and Wisconsin. Auburn squeaked out a one point win over Alabama this weekend. Some may view Auburn’s inability to win decisively as a failure. However, both our system and the Vegas line had Auburn as a 4 point underdog in this game, so the Tigers actually overachieved. Still, Auburn doesn’t qualify for the 2 team tourney as they trail Boise State by more than 3 points.

Finally, Wisconsin put up another big number on a Big Ten opponent, scoring 70 points on Northwestern in a 47 point win. A few weeks ago, they beat Indiana by 63 points only to move up one place in The Power Rank. This week, they actually dropped one place, as Nevada passed them with their win over Boise State. This clearly demonstrates the diminishing returns in The Power Rank for running up the score. We’re all in favor of piling on the points, but it’s not necessarily going to help your rank. Wisconsin comes in at 12th in the latest rankings.

College Football Rankings, Week 10

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Rankings through Saturday, November 6, 2010. Full Rankings.

1. Oregon, 9-0, 45.14
2. TCU, 10-0, 38.34
3. Boise State, 8-0, 33.49
4. Stanford, 8-1, 30.45
5. Auburn, 10-0, 26.86
6. Alabama, 7-2, 26.05
7. Ohio State, 8-1, 25.96
8. Nebraska, 8-1, 25.68
9. Oregon State, 4-4, 25.23
10. Arizona State, 4-5, 25.22
11. Virginia Tech, 7-2, 25.13
12. USC, 6-3, 24.66
13. Iowa, 7-2, 24.22
14. Nevada, 8-1, 24.19
15. Wisconsin, 8-1, 23.74
16. Arkansas, 7-2, 23.06
17. LSU, 8-1, 22.53
18. Oklahoma State, 8-1, 22.03
19. Missouri, 7-2, 22.02
20. Arizona, 7-2, 21.69
21. Miami (FL), 6-3, 21.25
22. Oklahoma, 7-2, 20.90
23. South Carolina, 6-3, 20.86
24. California, 5-4, 20.55
25. Florida State, 6-3, 20.53

TCU at Utah. For those who spend late fall cheering for the college football results that creates the most Bullshit Cartel Series (BCS) chaos, this game was a win win situation. Both TCU and Utah entered the game undefeated and highly esteemed by the BCS cartel. The winner would have another quality win and a shot at the national championship game if they remained undefeated.

Or would they? This game between TCU and Utah has determined the most screwed team in the nation the past two years. In 2008, Utah beat TCU with a late game drive in Salt Lake City. This undefeated Utes team watched as two one loss teams, Florida and Oklahoma, played for the championship. Utah did get a consolation berth in the Sugar Bowl, posting a 14 point win over Alabama. The BCS champion Florida beat this same Alabama team by 11. Last year, TCU ran away from Utah in Fort Worth, Texas on their way to an undefeated season. The Horned Frogs earned a final fourth place BCS ranking, good for a spot on the couch to watch two very beatable teams, Alabama and Texas, play for the title.

The BCS sucks. One championship game in not enough; only a 16 team playoff will give college football the grand finale it deserves every year. But, on a late fall day in Salt Lake City, one can still hope. TCU grabbed hope by the ears and thumped Utah. They took the opening kickoff and drove 80 yards for a touchdown. By the time a Utah fumble led to TCU’s third touchdown of the first quarter, the game was all but over. TCU won 47-7. It might just be the best possible outcome for those fanatical about BCS chaos. TCU now has a monster 40 point win over a good Utah team, which has earned them points in the human polls. Too bad their large margin of victory doesn’t matter to the computers.

3. Boise State (8-0) 33.49. Hawaii was supposed to give the Broncos a game. Instead, Boise State suffocated a Hawaii pass attack that had previously gained 7.8 yards a pass attempt. Hawaii threw for 4.5 yards on average over 28 attempts and gave up 7 sacks. Boise State wins 42-7.

4. Stanford (8-1), 30.45. Last year, the Cardinal traveled to Arizona and gave up two long touchdown runs in the second half to lose by 5. It made some people question the team’s ability to close out games. In Palo Alto this weekend, Stanford avenged last season’s loss with an emphatic 25 point win. The questions keep getting answered this year.

10. Arizona State (4-5) 25.22. How many close games are the Sun Devils going to lose? Against USC this weekend, they had a blocked extra point returned for 2 points and then missed a game winning field goal. USC won by 1. Will they finally get that big win against Stanford next weekend?

17. LSU. People like to talk about Les Miles’ luck: the 13 men on the field against Tennesee, the perfect bounce on a fake field goal attempt against Florida. But people rarely talk about LSU’s execution after their breaks. After the Tennesee penalty, they punched the ball in the endzone. After the first down against Florida, a supposedly weak offense marched 35 yards in a minute and scored the game winning touchdown. And this weekend against Alabama, LSU executed a perfect reverse on a fourth and 2. The Power Rank still doesn’t love this team, but their win over Alabama puts them right back in the championship game discussion.