To evaluate offense and defense in college football, I look beyond points per game, which can be affected by tempo and turnovers.  You can get more insight by looking at an efficiency metric like yards per play.

Based on an algorithm I developed, I make schedule adjustments to yards per play to rank college football offense and defense.  Below, I show the results for the Big Ten after 7 weeks of the 2018 season.

The format below gives rank, team, and rating, or an expected yards per play against an average FBS opponent. 

This data comes from a small sample size of 7 games at most.  These results are noisy, as you would never say too much about a basketball or baseball team after a similar number of games.

Offense

4. Wisconsin, 6.99
6. Purdue, 6.86
8. Ohio State, 6.82
15. Penn State, 6.54
22. Michigan, 6.35
33. Nebraska, 5.98
36. Maryland, 5.93
38. Iowa, 5.92
62. Michigan State, 5.60
71. Illinois, 5.50
76. Northwestern, 5.35
81. Indiana, 5.29
96. Minnesota, 5.12
128. Rutgers, 3.96

Wisconsin jumped to the top of the Big Ten with a respectable 5.78 yards per play against Michigan’s top ranked defense.

Defense

1. Michigan, 3.87
15. Penn State, 4.51
19. Iowa, 4.65
29. Michigan State, 4.92
37. Maryland, 5.13
41. Minnesota, 5.26
42. Nebraska, 5.26
60. Northwestern, 5.39
73. Indiana, 5.57
80. Purdue, 5.70
91. Ohio State, 5.89
97. Wisconsin, 6.12
106. Rutgers, 6.39
116. Illinois, 6.72

Ohio State has struggled this season, as they most recently allowed 7.07 yards per play to weak a Minnesota offense.

I broke down Ohio State’s defense in this week’s podcast The Football Analytics Show.

Become a member of The Power Rank

Members get access to adjusted yards per play numbers for all college football teams.  It also includes spread predictions for all college football and NFL games.

To learn more, click here.

With the college football season only weeks away, you’d like to know how many games your team will win.

Analytics can help, as team performance tends to persist from year to year in college football.  This makes it possible to use linear regression to predict the 2018 season.

My preseason model considers team performance, turnovers and returning starters.  To check out the rankings, click here.

These rankings gives a predicted point spread in each game, which accounts for home field.  This point spread implies a win probability for each team.  The sum of these win probabilities give the win totals below.

The remainder of this articles gives college football win totals for 130 FBS teams.  The first number gives a team’s rank in the preseason rankings.  The rating gives an expected margin of victory against an average FBS team (neutral site).

Southeastern

2: Alabama, 19.4 rating, 10.0 wins.
4: Georgia, 18.2 rating, 10.1 wins.
5: Auburn, 17.6 rating, 9.0 wins.
10: Mississippi State, 14.3 rating, 8.6 wins.
21: Texas A&M, 9.0 rating, 6.9 wins.
26: LSU, 7.9 rating, 6.3 wins.
34: Mississippi, 6.9 rating, 6.7 wins.
36: Florida, 6.8 rating, 7.4 wins.
45: South Carolina, 5.2 rating, 6.6 wins.
47: Missouri, 4.6 rating, 6.4 wins.
50: Arkansas, 3.9 rating, 6.2 wins.
59: Kentucky, 1.2 rating, 5.6 wins.
71: Tennessee, -1.9 rating, 5.2 wins.
84: Vanderbilt, -4.0 rating, 4.4 wins.

Big Ten

6: Ohio State, 17.4 rating, 9.6 wins.
8: Wisconsin, 16.0 rating, 9.5 wins.
11: Michigan State, 13.9 rating, 8.9 wins.
12: Michigan, 13.4 rating, 8.0 wins.
15: Penn State, 12.3 rating, 8.3 wins.
19: Iowa, 9.9 rating, 8.1 wins.
32: Northwestern, 7.2 rating, 6.5 wins.
48: Purdue, 4.3 rating, 5.8 wins.
49: Nebraska, 4.0 rating, 5.8 wins.
58: Minnesota, 1.7 rating, 5.9 wins.
68: Maryland, -1.0 rating, 4.7 wins.
74: Indiana, -2.1 rating, 4.6 wins.
83: Rutgers, -3.9 rating, 4.3 wins.
90: Illinois, -5.2 rating, 4.0 wins.

Big 12

3: Oklahoma, 18.6 rating, 9.8 wins.
14: TCU, 12.9 rating, 8.1 wins.
18: Oklahoma State, 10.1 rating, 7.6 wins.
23: Texas, 8.8 rating, 6.9 wins.
28: Iowa State, 7.6 rating, 6.5 wins.
31: Kansas State, 7.3 rating, 6.5 wins.
38: Baylor, 6.7 rating, 6.5 wins.
39: Texas Tech, 6.5 rating, 6.3 wins.
43: West Virginia, 6.1 rating, 6.1 wins.
93: Kansas, -5.5 rating, 3.2 wins.

Atlantic Coast

1: Clemson, 21.6 rating, 10.4 wins.
17: Miami (FL), 10.4 rating, 8.2 wins.
22: Florida State, 8.9 rating, 6.8 wins.
24: Virginia Tech, 8.8 rating, 7.8 wins.
25: Georgia Tech, 8.3 rating, 6.8 wins.
27: Duke, 7.8 rating, 6.8 wins.
33: Louisville, 6.9 rating, 6.9 wins.
37: Boston College, 6.8 rating, 6.8 wins.
41: Wake Forest, 6.2 rating, 6.6 wins.
46: Pittsburgh, 4.6 rating, 5.5 wins.
51: North Carolina State, 3.3 rating, 6.1 wins.
56: Syracuse, 2.2 rating, 5.7 wins.
63: North Carolina, 0.7 rating, 5.1 wins.
65: Virginia, 0.5 rating, 5.6 wins.

Pac-12

9: Washington, 14.8 rating, 9.1 wins.
13: Stanford, 13.3 rating, 8.4 wins.
20: USC, 9.5 rating, 7.6 wins.
35: Utah, 6.9 rating, 7.1 wins.
40: California, 6.3 rating, 7.3 wins.
42: Oregon, 6.1 rating, 7.5 wins.
44: Arizona, 5.7 rating, 7.6 wins.
53: UCLA, 2.6 rating, 5.1 wins.
54: Arizona State, 2.6 rating, 5.5 wins.
55: Washington State, 2.4 rating, 6.2 wins.
89: Colorado, -5.2 rating, 4.0 wins.
101: Oregon State, -7.5 rating, 3.0 wins.

Independents

7: Notre Dame, 16.3 rating, 9.2 wins.
82: Army, -3.9 rating, 7.2 wins.
85: Brigham Young, -4.2 rating, 4.9 wins.
99: Massachusetts, -6.5 rating, 6.2 wins.
105: New Mexico State, -9.5 rating, 6.2 wins.
121: Liberty, -14.7 rating, 4.2 wins.

American Athletic Conference

16: UCF, 10.8 rating, 9.7 wins.
29: Memphis, 7.5 rating, 9.2 wins.
57: South Florida, 2.2 rating, 7.7 wins.
61: Houston, 1.1 rating, 7.2 wins.
62: Navy, 0.9 rating, 7.5 wins.
75: Temple, -2.2 rating, 6.2 wins.
78: SMU, -2.8 rating, 5.5 wins.
81: Tulsa, -3.8 rating, 5.3 wins.
91: Tulane, -5.3 rating, 4.9 wins.
100: Cincinnati, -6.5 rating, 5.3 wins.
107: East Carolina, -10.0 rating, 4.1 wins.
119: Connecticut, -13.5 rating, 3.0 wins.

Mountain West

30: Boise State, 7.3 rating, 9.2 wins.
64: San Diego State, 0.5 rating, 7.8 wins.
66: Fresno State, -0.0 rating, 7.4 wins.
72: Utah State, -2.0 rating, 7.3 wins.
77: Wyoming, -2.4 rating, 6.7 wins.
88: Colorado State, -4.7 rating, 6.1 wins.
92: Air Force, -5.3 rating, 5.5 wins.
104: Nevada, -8.8 rating, 5.2 wins.
108: UNLV, -10.0 rating, 5.6 wins.
110: New Mexico, -10.5 rating, 4.3 wins.
122: San Jose State, -15.1 rating, 3.4 wins.
125: Hawaii, -16.0 rating, 4.0 wins.

Mid-American

67: Toledo, -0.6 rating, 8.2 wins.
76: Northern Illinois, -2.2 rating, 6.2 wins.
79: Ohio, -3.2 rating, 7.7 wins.
86: Western Michigan, -4.4 rating, 6.8 wins.
94: Buffalo, -5.7 rating, 6.8 wins.
98: Miami (OH), -6.4 rating, 6.0 wins.
102: Eastern Michigan, -7.9 rating, 5.8 wins.
103: Central Michigan, -8.6 rating, 5.3 wins.
106: Akron, -9.7 rating, 4.9 wins.
115: Bowling Green, -12.2 rating, 4.1 wins.
127: Ball State, -16.8 rating, 3.4 wins.
129: Kent State, -19.8 rating, 2.6 wins.

Sun Belt

73: Appalachian State, -2.1 rating, 8.4 wins.
80: Troy, -3.6 rating, 7.5 wins.
87: Louisiana Monroe, -4.5 rating, 6.9 wins.
95: Arkansas State, -5.7 rating, 7.0 wins.
97: Georgia Southern, -6.0 rating, 6.7 wins.
109: South Alabama, -10.2 rating, 5.1 wins.
118: Coastal Carolina, -13.5 rating, 4.5 wins.
120: Georgia State, -13.8 rating, 3.8 wins.
124: Louisiana, -15.8 rating, 3.9 wins.
126: Texas State, -16.6 rating, 4.0 wins.

Conference USA

52: Marshall, 3.0 rating, 8.9 wins.
60: Florida Atlantic, 1.1 rating, 7.5 wins.
69: Louisiana Tech, -1.6 rating, 7.6 wins.
70: Middle Tennessee, -1.7 rating, 7.3 wins.
96: North Texas, -6.0 rating, 7.3 wins.
111: Southern Miss, -10.6 rating, 5.6 wins.
112: Western Kentucky, -10.7 rating, 4.9 wins.
113: UAB, -10.8 rating, 6.1 wins.
114: UTSA, -11.4 rating, 4.8 wins.
116: Florida International, -12.2 rating, 4.9 wins.
117: Old Dominion, -12.6 rating, 4.8 wins.
123: Charlotte, -15.6 rating, 3.8 wins.
128: Rice, -19.5 rating, 3.7 wins.
130: UTEP, -21.5 rating, 2.6 wins.