Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of bets, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

College basketball player prop – Melvin Council is a solid, veteran guard who transferred to Kansas from St. Bonaventure this season. While he has played well most of the season, he has only averaged 8.3 points in his last three games.

This presents an opportunity, as Council has been much better the rest of the season. He has averaged 14.0 points in Big 12 games, and his minutes did not go down in the past three games. A simple model projects 12.8 points for Council against Arizona today, and who knows when another Darryn Peterson cramp will lead to more shots for Council.

There is value in Melvin Council over 11.5 points, -120 at FanDuel. Kansas travels to Arizona in huge Big 12 game that tips at 4pm Eastern.

Top down NBA betting – The SharpStack +EV tool uses data from sharp sportsbooks to find value at other books. Here are a few NBA player props today with value.

• Marcus Smart under 7.5 points, -106 at DraftKings. Other books like FanDuel have 6.5 points for this prop. Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State tips at 8:30pm Eastern.
• Cody Williams under 3.5 rebounds, -140 at BetMGM. Other books have 2.5 rebounds or a higher price for under 3.5 rebounds. New Orleans at Utah tips at 9:30pm Eastern.
• Brandin Podziemski under 6.5 rebounds, -138 at FanDuel. Most other books have 5.5 rebounds for the Golden State guard.

These props do move fast, so grab them while you can. Use the code thepowerrank to get 25% off SharpStack.

Live by the three, die by the three – Alabama coach Nate Oats has embraced analytics, and he recognizes that three points is greater than two. Alabama teams under Oats have always shot a lot of threes, but they have leveled up their three point rate this season.

Alabama has taken 54.3% of their field attempts from three this season, the most in the nation. This is big jump from their 46.6% from last season. Guard Labaron Philon has taken over with the highest usage on the team and has taken 150 threes already this season.

My member numbers have Alabama ranked 12th in the nation, and they face a tough road test at Tennessee. Philon missed their last game due to injury but seems likely to play. My best prediction has Tennessee by 2.7 points at home.

The nasty trick the NFL Combine plays on you – After running a 4.29 second 40 yard dash at the NFL Combine, Matthew Golden shot up NFL draft boards. The data of Benjamin Robinson shows how Golden’s draft stock rose after the combine, and Green Bay took him with the 23rd pick of the 1st round.

Golden had a solid rookie year with 445 receiving yards on 33 receptions despite dealing with injuries. While he may still become a star, the NFL has not been as kind to other speedsters like John Ross and Henry Ruggs.

In general, a wide receiver’s 40 yard dash time has very little ability to predict NFL performance. Be cautious as you watch the wide receivers run at the NFL Combine on Saturday.

Football humor – “If you get this one, I will die.” Alex Trebek roasts the Jeopardy nerds who know nothing about American football in a hilarious 1:30.

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Looking for sharp football betting action this weekend? Your curated list of bets, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

NFL receiving prop – Matt Perrault of The Bostonian VS The Book is targeting a match up in Monday night’s Houston at Pittsburgh game. Pittsburgh TE Pat Freiermuth has two factors going against him.

• Houston’s excellent pass defense is particularly good against tight ends, allowing 6.3 yards per target.
• Pittsburgh WR DK Metcalf returns after a two game suspension, which will limit targets for the tight end.

Matt likes Pat Freiermuth under 34.5 receiving yards, -114 available at FanDuel. Check out Matt’s show The Bostonian VS The Book on which I made an appearance on Friday.

NFL interception prop – New England QB Drake Maye has been excellent in his second season, leading his team to a 14-3 record. He plays with a calm that doesn’t let defenses rattle him.

One way this shows up in the numbers is in bad balls, or the sum of interceptions and passes defended. Bad ball rate captures how often a QB throws the football into a dangerous situation and plays a crucial role in my interception model. Maye has had a 9.9% bad ball rate this season, much better than the 12.5% league average.

My model gives a 56% chance Maye does not throw a pick. While the markets have not shown value on Maye this season, FanDuel does have -120 for Maye to not throw a pick (54.5% break even probability).

Indiana vs Miami, College Football Championship Game – To show the coaching job that Curt Cignetti has done, consider WR Elijah Sarratt. He started his college football career in 2022 at FCS St. Francis (PA) before transferring to James Madison with Cignetti the next season.

Sarratt has been crucial part of this Indiana offensive machine the past two seasons. In two games against an elite Oregon pass defense, Sarratt has been unstoppable, catching 15 of 19 targets for 196 yards and 3 touchdowns.

No matter what happens against Miami, Cignetti has done the best college football coaching job ever. Before the semi-final games, I would have made Indiana a 4.9 point favorite over Miami.

Members of The Power Rank will get an updated prediction later today, as I also need to figure out an adjustment for Miami playing in their home stadium.

NFL playoff trends – Based on playoff data back to 2001, Carl Sack of KillerSports.com noticed that Wild Card playoff games have gone under in 59% of games (62-43). If it’s the first meeting between the two teams, this rate goes up to 76% (29-9).

I’m guessing that teams get more conservative once the playoffs start. They do not want to make a critical mistake that can tip the game.

These four Wild Card games feature teams that haven’t played each other:

• Buffalo at Jacksonville, 51.5
• San Francisco at Philadelphia, 44.5
• Los Angeles Chargers at New England, 46
• Houston at Pittsburgh, 38

Do not bet a game only because of a trend, but it can be helpful with your handicapping.

Football humor – When asked why he could change the culture at Indiana, Curt Cignetti said he wins. “Google me.” Now it’s a part of a rap song.

The best line: “He doesn’t chase stars. He forges them.”

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These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

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Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet and a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.

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