You’re an idiot, says the little voice in my head.

The Detroit Lions are a dumpster fire. Over this off-season, they did the following:

• Downgraded at QB from Matthew Stafford to Jared Goff.
• Gutted the receiving corp with the loss of Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones.
• Made minimal improvements to a secondary that finished dead last in PFF coverage grades in 2020.

The last issue is probably getting worse due to injury. CB Jeffrey Okudah, the 3rd pick overall in the 2020 draft, went down with an Achilles injury in week 1. CB/S Ifeatu Melifonwu, a 3rd round pick in the 2021 draft from Syracuse, went down with a thigh injury in week 2.

Passing rules the NFL. Detroit projects to struggle with the pass game on offense and defense, which suggests going against the Lions.

But there’s still a voice in my head that’s calling me an idiot…

Baltimore won a dramatic 36-35 game over Kansas City when they converted a 4th and 1 near midfield to ice the game. In watching this game, two things stood out:

• two awful Lamar Jackson interceptions early in the game
• the dominance of Baltimore’s rush game, as Jackson might be the best running back in the league

However, in looking back over the game, I was surprised to see that Baltimore’s offense had a 64% success rate on pass plays (46% NFL average).

My numbers like Baltimore 9.1 points on the road, which suggests value on Baltimore -7.5. There’s only one problem.

You’re an idiot, again says the little voice in my head.

Pinnacle and FanDuel, two sharp sports books, are taking a stand with Detroit, as they have Baltimore as a 7.5 point favorite.

Pinnacle has been a leading sharp sports book for decades. On a recent Circles Off podcast, a professional sports bettor talked about how he had to replenish his Pinnacle account while other accounts had plenty of funds.

FanDuel often takes a stand on NFL sides. Director of Trading John Sheeran has a meeting with his team on Wednesday and decides on which games to differ from market consensus. At least one professional sports bettor I’ve talked with considers FanDuel a sharp sports book.

One reason that these sports books like Detroit is that the Lions had favorable underlying metrics against Green Bay. Detroit had more yards than Green Bay (344 to 323) and had a 48.6% success rate on pass plays. The score could have been closer had Detroit converted two 4th and short situations in Green Bay territory.

If Pinnacle and FanDuel had Baltimore -9, then a Baltimore -7.5 at a different sports book makes total sense. However, that is not the case. I took Baltimore -7.5, but I feel more queasy than a Michigan fan before an Ohio State game.

Football betting with a PhD edge

This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

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Note: After this was published on Thursday, September 16, news broke that Will Fuller V will not play for Miami against Buffalo due to personal reasons.

In the NFL, regression to the mean is a powerful, unavoidable force.

In 2019, Miami was awful, posting a 5-11 record that probably seemed like a miracle after an 0-7 start. In 2020, despite breaking in a rookie QB midway through the season, Miami finished 10-6 and above average in my NFL team rankings.

Heading into 2021, Miami has potential in their second year with QB Tua Tagovailoa. When he took over as the starter in their 7th game, Miami’s offense was 13th in my passing success rate adjusted for opponent. They finished the season with the same rank.

This season, Tagovailoa has a new weapon. Will Fuller Jr. was 8th in yards per route among wide receivers in 2020 with Houston. He missed week 1 due to suspension but will play against Buffalo.

On defense, Miami was 17th in adjusted passing success rate in 2020. They have continuity in the secondary in cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Byron Jones and the defensive mindset of head coach Brian Flores.

In the NFL, regression to the mean is a powerful, unavoidable force. It pulls like your five year old as you walk past an ice cream store.

Could Tagovailoa break out and lead Miami on a deep playoff run? Maybe, but regression suggests that Miami should look a lot like last year.

How does an NFL average team stack up against a Super Bowl contender at home?

Buffalo took an enormous leap forward last season under the miracle of QB Josh Allen. They also have a talented secondary that could be better than the 16th they finished 2020 in my passing success rate.

As I discussed in the podcast preview series, Buffalo helped out Allen with the use of analytics: throw more on early downs, call more play action. So far this season, they have continued to throw on early downs (more than 70% according to rbsdm.com, second most behind Dallas in 2021).

However, OC Brian Daboll only called play action on 14% of pass plays against Pittsburgh, down from the 30.4% from 2020. This might be a one game blip against a ferocious defense. However, with the increased efficiency on play action, this is a rate to track on Pro Football Reference.

Despite a loss to Pittsburgh, I still consider Buffalo a Super Bowl contender. However, life is difficult on the road in the NFL, despite an ever decreasing home field advantage. My numbers like Buffalo by 2.5 points, not far from the 2.7 points my model would have made this game preseason.

There is value in Miami +3.5.

Football betting with a PhD edge

This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter on Thursday, September 16 at 1pm Eastern. This is a free service that strives to be:

• Valuable
• Concise
• Entertaining

The analytics are based on my PhD research from Stanford, and the content covers college football and the NFL. If you sign up for my free email newsletter, you’ll immediately get my information on NFL QBs to fade in 2021.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”

 

 

 

Analytics suggests two simple ways to make an NFL offense more efficient.

• Call play action
• Throw on early downs in neutral game situations

I look at how one Super Bowl contender has evolved in these two areas as well as other aspects of the team.

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

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