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College Football Predictions, September 24, 2011

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

LSU will beat West Virginia by 4.9 on the road. When West Virginia traveled to Baton Rouge last year to face LSU, they rushed for 2.1 yards per carry while quarterback Geno Smith completed 48.3 percent of his passes for only 119 yards. But LSU still needed a Patrick Peterson punt return for a touchdown to win 20-14. This year, LSU’s defense still looks strong despite losing cornerback Peterson to the NFL. The line favors LSU by 6 in Morgantown. LSU’s rating is probably a little inflated from the turnovers Oregon gifted them in the first game of the year. West Virginia probably has more potential to improve offensively with new coach Dana Holgorsen. A slight lean towards West Virginia in this game.

Alabama will beat Arkansas by 7.1 at home. In his three years at Arkansas, coach Bobby Petrino has taken the Razorbacks from a -0.1 rating in his first year to a 16.0 rating last year. Let’s assume they slightly improve by 2 points this year despite losing quarterback Ryan Mallett. With their jumbo sized defense, everyone expects Alabama to content for the national title, which means they’ll have something like the 26.3 rating they had two years ago when they won the national title. Let’s stray from the current rankings and estimate a new line based on these numbers. With three points for home field, the line should be Alabama by 11, exactly the current line. However, if Alabama falls short of this lofty standard, Arkansas might be a good bet.

San Diego State will beat Michigan by 5.7 on the road. It’s hard to figure how Vegas favors Michigan by 10.5 in this game. Despite its 3-0 record and 22nd ranking in the AP poll, Michigan hasn’t played particularly well yet. In their only quality win, they took advantage of some costly turnovers from Notre Dame while their receivers caught more jump balls then the Irish secondary. What does one need to believe to think Michigan wins by 10? First, Michigan must respond to new coach Brady Hoke. In 2009, San Diego State improved by 6 points in Hoke’s first year as coach. Second, San Diego State must get worse, despite returning quarterback Ryan Lindley and running back Ronnie Hillman. For the sake of argument, let’s say their losses on defense make them 6 points worse. Using last year’s final rating of 9.4 and -1.2 for San Diego State and Michigan respectively, Michigan is 1.4 points better. With home field at the Big House, Michigan should be favored by 4.5. Perhaps Michigan has some advantage since Hoke knows the personel he left at San Diego State. Is that worth another 6 point? No.

UCF will beat Brigham Young by 4.9 on the road. Brigham Young keeps getting downgraded every week. Their win at Mississippi doesn’t look good anymore as Mississippi lost to Vanderbilt. They lost to Texas by 1, but the Longhorns have yet to prove themselves against quality competition. Utah completely dominated them last week, winning 54-10. The most troubling aspect of the last two games is the defense’s complete inability to stop the run late in the game. UCF won 11 games last year, including a bowl game against Georgia. While they lost to Florida International last week, they’re still 41st in The Power Rank. Despite all this, Brigham Young is still favored by 3 in this games. We’ll stick with our rankings and take UCF.

Oklahoma will beat Missouri by 8.5 at home. The line favors Oklahoma by 21 points at home in Norman. This must be based on pre-season expectations as well as last week’s road win against Florida State. However, Missouri is a strong team whose sophomore quarterback James Franklin had a great second half at Arizona State. Moreover, they get a number of starters back from injury this week. The 21 points is way too much in favor of Oklahoma. This assumes Oklahoma will reach national title contender heights, such as their 26.4 rating in 2008, and that Missouri will drop off significantly from their 12.7 rating last year. Unlikely. Take Missouri.

Clemson will beat Florida State by 1.5 at home. The line started by favoring Florida State by 3 on the road at Clemson. Vegas stills expects this Florida State team to live up to the pre-season hype. However, the line has moved to Clemson by 2. This agrees with our rankings, which has Clemson surging up as a top 20 team while Florida State hangs around the teens, the same range it occupied last season. The injury to Florida State quarterback E.J. Manual might have an effect on the line.

Texas A&M will beat Oklahoma State by 0.3 at home. Last year, Oklahoma State needed fumble returned for a touchdown to squeak by Texas A&M. In that home game for Oklahoma State in Stillwater, Texas held their prolific offense to 6.8 yards per pass attempt, far below their 8.7 average for the year. But can the Texas A&M defense, which gave up 41 points to a meager LSU offense in the Cotton Bowl last year, hold down Oklahoma State again? The line is Texas A&M by 4.5, which says the Aggies are a slightly better team. But with such fluctuations in defensive performance (Aggies return 8 starters from last year), it’s better to go with The Power Rank, which says Oklahoma State is better by 3 points. A lean towards Oklahoma State.

Boise State will beat Tulsa by 25.1 at home

Oregon will beat Arizona by 17.0 on the road

Wisconsin will beat South Dakota by 35.3 at home

Auburn will beat Florida Atlantic by 38.9 at home

TCU will beat Portland State by 42.8 at home

Virginia Tech will beat Marshall by 23.8 on the road

Nebraska will beat Wyoming by 19.1 on the road

South Carolina will beat Vanderbilt by 20.3 at home

Ohio State will beat Colorado by 16.5 at home

North Carolina State will beat Cincinnati by 7.7 on the road

Arizona State will beat USC by 4.1 at home

Miami (FL) will beat Kansas State by 10.9 at home

Iowa will beat Louisiana Monroe by 21.6 at home

Mississippi State will beat Louisiana Tech by 16.8 at home

Pittsburgh will beat Notre Dame by 0.9 at home

Florida will beat Kentucky by 4.7 on the road

Illinois will beat Western Michigan by 17.1 at home

Maryland will beat Temple by 15.3 at home

South Florida will beat UTEP by 21.2 at home

Georgia will beat Mississippi by 3.0 on the road

Michigan State will beat Central Michigan by 20.7 at home

Texas Tech will beat Nevada by 0.2 at home

North Carolina will beat Georgia Tech by 0.0 on the road

Washington will beat California by 0.7 at home

Baylor will beat Rice by 20.4 at home

Hawaii will beat UC Davis by 23.4 at home

Oregon State will beat UCLA by 13.2 at home

Connecticut will beat Buffalo by 16.7 on the road

Air Force will beat Tennessee State by 34.5 at home

Florida International will beat Louisiana Lafayette by 16.9 at home

Northern Illinois will beat Cal Poly by 16.3 at home

Syracuse will beat Toledo by 4.4 at home

Utah State will beat Colorado State by 14.8 at home

Penn State will beat Eastern Michigan by 27.3 at home

Southern Miss will beat Virginia by 0.3 on the road

Rutgers will beat Ohio by 1.1 at home

Boston College will beat Massachusetts by 13.0 at home

Troy will beat Middle Tennessee State by 13.4 at home

Minnesota will beat North Dakota State by 8.1 at home

East Carolina will beat UAB by 10.4 at home

Fresno State will beat Idaho by 2.2 on the road

Arkansas State will beat Central Arkansas by 16.5 at home

SMU will beat Memphis by 21.1 on the road

Houston will beat Georgia State by 31.8 at home

Duke will beat Tulane by 11.8 at home

Army will beat Ball State by 8.3 on the road

Miami (OH) will beat Bowling Green by 11.4 at home

Southern Utah will beat UNLV by 3.3 on the road

South Alabama will beat Kent State by 2.6 on the road

Sam Houston State will beat New Mexico by 8.4 on the road

Indiana will beat North Texas by 1.3 on the road

San Jose State will beat New Mexico State by 4.4 at home

Akron will beat Virginia Military by 5.9 at home

Filed Under: College Football, College Football 2011, College Football Analytics

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