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Oregon’s Darron Thomas could have been LSU’s quarterback

By Dr. Ed Feng 2 Comments

Les Miles, charming
Could use a good quarterback
A few words swing game

Darron Thomas was going to LSU. He was a quarterback, not the athlete that most people see in a tall, black teenager playing football, and he was going to play football at the school of his mother’s wishes. To seal the deal, the quarterback and his high school coach Bob Jones went to Baton Rouge for a visit in November, 2007. Jones mentioned to LSU coach Les Miles not to call Darron an athlete, some simple advice to a college head coach whose success depends on charming teenagers into playing for him. Of course, one of the first things Miles says to the recruit is “Darron, you’re a great athlete. You can do a lot of different things.” Thomas changed his mind and want to Oregon.

This story, as told by Austin Murphy in Sports Illustrated last fall, will almost certainly impact the game between Oregon and LSU this weekend. Let’s look at how The Power Rank compares these two teams over the last 6 years. Using the scores of all games played in Division I each year, the algorithm assigns each team a rating that estimates its strength compared to the average bowl subdivision team. LSU’s rating of 15.6 last year means they would have an average margin of victory of 15.6 against an average team.
A graphic of Oregon and LSU.
Les Miles has fielded a consistently strong team at LSU, with 2008 as their only down year. The 2007 Tigers, who won the National Championship despite two losses, wasn’t even the best team over this period. Despite the strength of LSU over the last two years, one can always wonder how much better they might have been with a competent quarterback. Even if starting quarterback Jordan Jefferson hadn’t been suspended for Saturday’s game for allegedly kicking someone in a bar fight, let’s not forget how he struggled last year. When Darron Thomas took over the starting quarterback job last year, Oregon became a much better team. Of course, Thomas doesn’t get all the credit, as the offense clearly made huge strides in coach Chip Kelly’s second year. But the athletic quarterback did throw for 363 yards in last year’s National Championship game loss to Auburn. He would have been a huge upgrade for LSU.

Filed Under: College Football, College Football 2011, Darron Thomas, Les Miles, Louisiana State

College Football Rankings, Week 10

By Dr. Ed Feng 3 Comments

Rankings through Saturday, November 6, 2010. Full Rankings.

1. Oregon, 9-0, 45.14
2. TCU, 10-0, 38.34
3. Boise State, 8-0, 33.49
4. Stanford, 8-1, 30.45
5. Auburn, 10-0, 26.86
6. Alabama, 7-2, 26.05
7. Ohio State, 8-1, 25.96
8. Nebraska, 8-1, 25.68
9. Oregon State, 4-4, 25.23
10. Arizona State, 4-5, 25.22
11. Virginia Tech, 7-2, 25.13
12. USC, 6-3, 24.66
13. Iowa, 7-2, 24.22
14. Nevada, 8-1, 24.19
15. Wisconsin, 8-1, 23.74
16. Arkansas, 7-2, 23.06
17. LSU, 8-1, 22.53
18. Oklahoma State, 8-1, 22.03
19. Missouri, 7-2, 22.02
20. Arizona, 7-2, 21.69
21. Miami (FL), 6-3, 21.25
22. Oklahoma, 7-2, 20.90
23. South Carolina, 6-3, 20.86
24. California, 5-4, 20.55
25. Florida State, 6-3, 20.53

TCU at Utah. For those who spend late fall cheering for the college football results that creates the most Bullshit Cartel Series (BCS) chaos, this game was a win win situation. Both TCU and Utah entered the game undefeated and highly esteemed by the BCS cartel. The winner would have another quality win and a shot at the national championship game if they remained undefeated.

Or would they? This game between TCU and Utah has determined the most screwed team in the nation the past two years. In 2008, Utah beat TCU with a late game drive in Salt Lake City. This undefeated Utes team watched as two one loss teams, Florida and Oklahoma, played for the championship. Utah did get a consolation berth in the Sugar Bowl, posting a 14 point win over Alabama. The BCS champion Florida beat this same Alabama team by 11. Last year, TCU ran away from Utah in Fort Worth, Texas on their way to an undefeated season. The Horned Frogs earned a final fourth place BCS ranking, good for a spot on the couch to watch two very beatable teams, Alabama and Texas, play for the title.

The BCS sucks. One championship game in not enough; only a 16 team playoff will give college football the grand finale it deserves every year. But, on a late fall day in Salt Lake City, one can still hope. TCU grabbed hope by the ears and thumped Utah. They took the opening kickoff and drove 80 yards for a touchdown. By the time a Utah fumble led to TCU’s third touchdown of the first quarter, the game was all but over. TCU won 47-7. It might just be the best possible outcome for those fanatical about BCS chaos. TCU now has a monster 40 point win over a good Utah team, which has earned them points in the human polls. Too bad their large margin of victory doesn’t matter to the computers.

3. Boise State (8-0) 33.49. Hawaii was supposed to give the Broncos a game. Instead, Boise State suffocated a Hawaii pass attack that had previously gained 7.8 yards a pass attempt. Hawaii threw for 4.5 yards on average over 28 attempts and gave up 7 sacks. Boise State wins 42-7.

4. Stanford (8-1), 30.45. Last year, the Cardinal traveled to Arizona and gave up two long touchdown runs in the second half to lose by 5. It made some people question the team’s ability to close out games. In Palo Alto this weekend, Stanford avenged last season’s loss with an emphatic 25 point win. The questions keep getting answered this year.

10. Arizona State (4-5) 25.22. How many close games are the Sun Devils going to lose? Against USC this weekend, they had a blocked extra point returned for 2 points and then missed a game winning field goal. USC won by 1. Will they finally get that big win against Stanford next weekend?

17. LSU. People like to talk about Les Miles’ luck: the 13 men on the field against Tennesee, the perfect bounce on a fake field goal attempt against Florida. But people rarely talk about LSU’s execution after their breaks. After the Tennesee penalty, they punched the ball in the endzone. After the first down against Florida, a supposedly weak offense marched 35 yards in a minute and scored the game winning touchdown. And this weekend against Alabama, LSU executed a perfect reverse on a fourth and 2. The Power Rank still doesn’t love this team, but their win over Alabama puts them right back in the championship game discussion.

Filed Under: Boise State Broncos, College Football, Louisiana State, Stanford Cardinal, Uncategorized

College Football Rankings, Week 6

By Dr. Ed Feng 6 Comments

Let’s look at a coaching resume. The coach has been with his present team for the last five years, producing win totals of 11, 11, 12, 8 and 9. Even without a ten win season the last two years, this team finished a very respectable 25th and 11th in the Power Rank. With a 6-0 start to the current season, the coach has won 56 of 71 games, a 72 percent winning percentage. In addition, he has one conference and one BCS national championship to his resume. While the lone conference championship seems paltry, it’s only because a team from this conference has won the national championship 4 of these 5 years. So how can a fan base possibly want to fire this coach?

The coach is Les Miles of Louisiana State (LSU), a team in the Southeastern Conference (SEC). People give two reasons for wanting him fired. The first is poor clock management. The final 30 seconds of last weekend’s game against Tennessee provides a perfect example; this video show how only a Tennessee penalty for too many men on the field saved LSU from an ugly loss. It’s tough to make a decision on a coach when he’s dealing with 18 to 22 year old kids, particularly when practice time is limited in the name of “getting an education.” So let’s consider the second reason people can’t stand Miles: luck. In the year of his national championship, the top two teams in the BCS standings both lost the last weekend of the season, opening up a spot for a two loss LSU team in the national championship game.  But the best example of Lucky Les comes from this Saturday’s game at Florida. With about a minute left and down 29-26, LSU faced a 4th and 2 at the Florida 35. LSU ran a fake field goal play in which the holder flipped the football over his head to a streaking kicker. The football bounced off the turf and right into the hands of the kicker. The bounce was so perfect that the kicker never broke stride and scurried the two yards for a first down. With a less perfect bounce, the Gators would have easily stuffed the play. In the remaining time, LSU marched down the field and scored a touchdown to win the game.

Two weeks, two “lucky” wins for LSU and Les Miles. It’s pretty easy to think he has signed a pact with the devil, as multiple people have suggested over the last week. Here at the Power Rank, we have a different perspective. Let’s assume Les Miles had no control over the two extra Tennessee players or the exact trajectory of the flipped football. These two lucky plays were random, so they could have happened in any game at any time. Suppose Miles gets 10 breaks over the last five years. If these 10 breaks are random, their distribution in time might look like this.

Fooled by Randomness
To the human eye, it doesn’t look random, especially since the two points furthest to the right are almost on top of each other. But these numbers are random, produced by the same piece of computer code used in my statistical physics research. Each of these ten points had the same likelihood of landing anywhere along that line. The human eye sees patterns in randomness.

So make your own decision on the Miles brand of clock management. But when it comes to luck, remember that streaks of good fortune can result from randomness. In the most recent college football rankings, LSU comes in at 21st, a respectable position but certainly not where one expects the SEC champion. There is a lot of football left to be played, a lot of luck yet undetermined.

1. Nebraska (4-0) 31.38. Thursday’ game at Kansas State was the most exciting second half blow out ever. When Nebraska got the ball, it was only a matter of time before they ripped off another long play for a touchdown. Gotta love the DVR; fast forward through Kansas State possession, watch Nebraska explode. With this decisive road win, the Cornhuskers deservedly take the number one spot. Isn’t this more fun than the AP poll?

15. Stanford (4-1) 15.15. The Cardinal faithful were sweating at the prospect of losing to USC because of a mixed extra point. USC took a late one point lead because of the earlier gaffe. But in the remaining minute, Stanford marched right down the field and kicked a game winning field goal. However, they still drop in the Power Rank for letting a weak team hang around. Told you these rankings weren’t fixed.

17. San Diego St. (2-2) 14.51. The Aztecs lost a close game on the road to BYU and continue to hold on to their high ranking. Is this a team that might give conference powers Utah and TCU a run for their money? If they can pull out a win against Air Force at home this week, it might be time to start believing.

20. Utah (5-0) 13.44. If I had more time, I would tell you the last time a non BCS school went on the road to a BCS school and scored 68 points. That’s not a typo: 68. After a slow start, Utah blew away Iowa State on the road. For their fine efforts, they dropped one spot in the AP rankings because of LSU’s last minute heroics. This week might be the first and last time I mention the AP poll.

Top 25:
1. Nebraska, 4-0, 31.38
2. Oregon, 5-0, 29.94
3. TCU, 4-0, 25.91
4. Boise St., 5-0, 25.14
5. Nevada, 5-0, 24.23
6. Virginia Tech, 4-1, 21.27
7. Ohio St., 6-0, 21.20
8. South Carolina, 3-1, 18.31
9. Alabama, 5-1, 18.08
10. Oklahoma, 5-0, 16.93
11. Florida St., 4-1, 16.53
12. Missouri, 4-0, 15.84
13. Oregon St., 3-2, 15.48
14. Auburn, 6-0, 15.35
15. Stanford, 4-1, 15.15
16. Arizona St., 1-3, 15.02
17. San Diego St., 2-2, 14.51
18. California, 2-2, 13.74
19. Air Force, 4-1, 13.69
20. Utah, 5-0, 13.44
21. LSU, 6-0, 13.17
22. Iowa, 3-1, 12.49
23. Miami (FL), 3-2, 12.44
24. Arizona, 3-1, 12.31
25. Arkansas, 3-1, 12.16

Filed Under: Les Miles, Louisiana State, Nebraska Cornhuskers, Stanford Cardinal, Utah Utes

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