THE POWER RANK

Euro 2020 played in 2021 Quarter-final computer predictions

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These predictions are based on my world football/soccer rankings that take game results over a 5 year period and adjust for strength of schedule. These predictions assume reversion to the team mean over recent history.

Friday, July 2, 2021

Italy vs Belgium: Italy has a 29.0% chance to win. Belgium has a 45.4% chance to win. There is a 25.5% chance for a tie. Note that Belgium will most likely not have Eden Hazard and Kevin De Bruyne.

Probability of over 2.5 goals is 0.496. Probability of under 2.5 goals is 0.504.

Spain vs Switzerland: Spain has a 52.6% chance to win. Switzerland has a 24.0% chance to win. There is a 23.3% chance for a tie.

Probability of over 2.5 goals is 0.557. Probability of under 2.5 goals is 0.443.

Saturday, July 3, 2021

Denmark vs Czech Republic: Denmark has a 57.8% chance to win. Czech Republic has a 16.0% chance to win. There is a 26.1% chance for a tie.

Probability of over 2.5 goals is 0.361. Probability of under 2.5 goals is 0.639.

Ukraine vs England: Ukraine has a 15.4% chance to win. England has a 58.8% chance to win. There is a 25.8% chance for a tie.

Probability of over 2.5 goals is 0.363. Probability of under 2.5 goals is 0.637.

Euro 2020 played in 2021 Round of 16 predictions

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These predictions are based on my world football/soccer rankings that take game results over a 5 year period and adjust for strength of schedule. These predictions assume reversion to the team mean over recent history.

Saturday, June 26

Wales vs Denmark: Wales has a 22.9% chance to win. Denmark has a 46.4% chance to win. There is a 30.7% chance for a tie.

Probability of over 2.5 goals is 0.295. Probability of under 2.5 goals is 0.705.

Italy vs Austria: Italy has a 64.8% chance to win. Austria has a 10.0% chance to win. There is a 25.2% chance for a tie.

Probability of over 2.5 goals is 0.305. Probability of under 2.5 goals is 0.695.

Sunday, June 27

Netherlands vs Czech Republic: Netherlands has a 62.2% chance to win. Czech Republic has a 14.6% chance to win. There is a 23.1% chance for a tie.

Probability of over 2.5 goals is 0.446. Probability of under 2.5 goals is 0.554.

Belgium vs Portugal: Belgium has a 45.2% chance to win. Portugal has a 32.0% chance to win. There is a 22.8% chance for a tie.

Probability of over 2.5 goals is 0.627. Probability of under 2.5 goals is 0.373.

Monday, June 28

Croatia vs Spain: Croatia has a 22.7% chance to win. Spain has a 54.7% chance to win. There is a 22.6% chance for a tie.

Probability of over 2.5 goals is 0.571. Probability of under 2.5 goals is 0.429.

France vs Switzerland: France has a 54.4% chance to win. Switzerland has a 20.6% chance to win. There is a 25.0% chance for a tie.

Probability of over 2.5 goals is 0.438. Probability of under 2.5 goals is 0.562.

Tuesday, June 29

England hosting Germany: England has a 44.6% chance to win. Germany has a 30.1% chance to win. There is a 25.3% chance for a tie.

Probability of over 2.5 goals is 0.516. Probability of under 2.5 goals is 0.484.

Sweden vs Ukraine: Sweden has a 52.4% chance to win. Ukraine has a 20.6% chance to win. There is a 26.9% chance for a tie.

Probability of over 2.5 goals is 0.382. Probability of under 2.5 goals is 0.618.

Euro 2020 played in 2021 Group Stage Computer Predictions – 2nd, 3rd game

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These predictions come from my world football/soccer rankings that take match results and adjust for schedule.

You can find the predictions for the first group matches here. Updating the rankings with matches weren’t changing the predictions much, so I’m posting the 2nd and 3rd games together.

Wednesday, June 16, 2021

Russia hosting Finland: Russia has a 55.3% chance to win. Finland has a 19.6% chance to win. There is a 25.1% chance for a tie.

Turkey vs Wales: Turkey has a 29.7% chance to win. Wales has a 40.8% chance to win. There is a 29.5% chance for a tie.

Italy hosting Switzerland: Italy has a 56.9% chance to win. Switzerland has a 15.8% chance to win. There is a 27.4% chance for a tie.

Thursday, June 17, 2021

Ukraine vs North Macedonia: Ukraine has a 47.3% chance to win. North Macedonia has a 27.3% chance to win. There is a 25.5% chance for a tie.

Denmark hosting Belgium: Denmark has a 32.6% chance to win. Belgium has a 42.9% chance to win. There is a 24.5% chance for a tie.

Netherlands hosting Austria: Netherlands has a 66.7% chance to win. Austria has a 12.7% chance to win. There is a 20.7% chance for a tie.

Friday, June 18, 2021

Sweden vs Slovakia: Sweden has a 53.2% chance to win. Slovakia has a 20.2% chance to win. There is a 26.6% chance for a tie.

Croatia vs Czech Republic: Croatia has a 54.0% chance to win. Czech Republic has a 21.2% chance to win. There is a 24.8% chance for a tie.

England hosting Scotland: England has a 78.0% chance to win. Scotland has a 5.1% chance to win. There is a 16.9% chance for a tie.

Saturday, June 19, 2021

Hungary hosting France: Hungary has a 13.9% chance to win. France has a 64.6% chance to win. There is a 21.5% chance for a tie.

Germany hosting Portugal: Germany has a 44.0% chance to win. Portugal has a 31.9% chance to win. There is a 24.2% chance for a tie.

Spain hosting Poland: Spain has a 66.3% chance to win. Poland has a 14.1% chance to win. There is a 19.6% chance for a tie.

Sunday, June 20, 2021

Italy hosting Wales: Italy has a 67.0% chance to win. Wales has a 6.9% chance to win. There is a 26.1% chance for a tie.

Switzerland vs Turkey: Switzerland has a 50.6% chance to win. Turkey has a 23.3% chance to win. There is a 26.1% chance for a tie.

Monday, June 21, 2021

Netherlands hosting North Macedonia: Netherlands has a 75.5% chance to win. North Macedonia has a 8.2% chance to win. There is a 16.3% chance for a tie.

Ukraine vs Austria: Ukraine has a 36.3% chance to win. Austria has a 35.9% chance to win. There is a 27.8% chance for a tie.

Denmark hosting Russia: Denmark has a 61.8% chance to win. Russia has a 15.1% chance to win. There is a 23.1% chance for a tie.

Finland vs Belgium: Finland has a 9.2% chance to win. Belgium has a 73.8% chance to win. There is a 17.0% chance for a tie.

Tuesday, June 23, 2021

Scotland hosting Croatia: Scotland has a 24.9% chance to win. Croatia has a 50.7% chance to win. There is a 24.4% chance for a tie.

England hosting Czech Republic: England has a 72.3% chance to win. Czech Republic has a 7.4% chance to win. There is a 20.3% chance for a tie.

Wednesday, June 24, 2021

Sweden vs Poland: Sweden has a 40.2% chance to win. Poland has a 32.0% chance to win. There is a 27.7% chance for a tie.

Spain hosting Slovakia: Spain has a 77.6% chance to win. Slovakia has a 6.8% chance to win. There is a 15.7% chance for a tie.

Germany hosting Hungary: Germany has a 73.0% chance to win. Hungary has a 10.2% chance to win. There is a 16.8% chance for a tie.

Portugal vs France: Portugal has a 31.3% chance to win. France has a 42.2% chance to win. There is a 26.5% chance for a tie.

Euro 2020-21 Group Stage Computer Predictions – First Game

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These predictions come from my world football/soccer rankings that consider matches since 2016 and adjust for strength of schedule. The algorithm for schedule adjustment has performed well in published studies.

I’m using a reduced home advantage because of the reduced crowd sizes. Neutral site matches are denoted by ‘vs’.

These are the win, loss, draw probabilities for the first group stage matches. Check back for later matches.

Friday, June 11, 2021

Italy hosting Turkey: Italy has a 69.6% chance to win. Turkey has a 7.2% chance to win. There is a 23.2% chance for a tie.

Saturday, June 12, 2021

Wales vs Switzerland: Wales has a 25.6% chance to win. Switzerland has a 45.0% chance to win. There is a 29.3% chance for a tie.

Denmark hosting Finland: Denmark has a 74.4% chance to win. Finland has a 5.4% chance to win. There is a 20.2% chance for a tie.

Russia hosting Belgium: Russia has a 24.2% chance to win. Belgium has a 54.5% chance to win. There is a 21.3% chance for a tie.

Sunday, June 13, 2021

England hosting Croatia: England has a 53.6% chance to win. Croatia has a 21.6% chance to win. There is a 24.7% chance for a tie.

Austria vs North Macedonia: Austria has a 45.4% chance to win. North Macedonia has a 28.5% chance to win. There is a 26.1% chance for a tie.

Netherlands hosting Ukraine: Netherlands has a 67.6% chance to win. Ukraine has a 11.4% chance to win. There is a 21.1% chance for a tie.

Monday, June 14, 2021

Scotland hosting Czech Republic: Scotland has a 41.7% chance to win. Czech Republic has a 31.1% chance to win. There is a 27.2% chance for a tie.

Poland vs Slovakia: Poland has a 50.7% chance to win. Slovakia has a 23.5% chance to win. There is a 25.8% chance for a tie.

Spain hosting Sweden: Spain has a 63.8% chance to win. Sweden has a 15.1% chance to win. There is a 21.0% chance for a tie.

Tuesday, June 15, 2021

Hungary hosting Portugal: Hungary has a 18.0% chance to win. Portugal has a 58.9% chance to win. There is a 23.1% chance for a tie.

Germany hosting France: Germany has a 38.8% chance to win. France has a 36.9% chance to win. There is a 24.3% chance for a tie.

Win probabilities for the 2018 World Cup after the group stage

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I turned on the Belgium versus England group stage match only to learn that neither team would play their best players. Sure, both teams had already advanced to the knockout stage of the 2018 World Cup before this match.

However, the team that wins the group would play Japan, the 36th ranked team by my predictive international soccer rankings. The second place team would face 9th ranked Colombia. It seemed like either England and Belgium could benefit from playing their top players against the opponent’s backups.

I expressed my displeasure at the situation on Twitter. Plenty of people shot back with an important point: the first place team gets placed on the side of the bracket with Brazil, France and Argentina. The second place team does play Colombia but otherwise only has to deal with Spain.

Belgium won 1-0 over England to win the group. But did they reduce their win probability by putting themselves on the difficult side of the bracket?

In the actual bracket, here are the win probabilities for the remaining 16 teams in the World Cup based on The Power Rank’s analytics.

1. Brazil, 17.7%
2. France, 11.1%
3. Spain, 8.4%
4. Belgium, 7.6%
5. Colombia, 7.1%
6. Portugal, 5.8%
7. Argentina, 5.7%
8. England, 5.7%
9. Croatia, 5.5%
10. Russia, 4.9%
11. Uruguay, 4.6%
12. Sweden, 4.1%
13. Denmark, 3.7%
14. Mexico, 3.3%
15. Switzerland, 3.2%
16. Japan, 1.4%

I also ran numbers in which Belgium swapped places with England. What did I find?

Belgium’s win probability increased by only 0.3% when placed on the “easier” side of the bracket. In over 50,000 simulations, the error in this win probability is 0.1%. The change in win probability is only slightly larger than this error.

England’s win probability drops only 0.1% on the harder side of the bracket. They would however have an easier time getting to the quarterfinals. With the swap, England has a 61% chance to advance past Japan. In the actual bracket, they have a 47% chance against Colombia.

The biggest change in win probability with the swap was Brazil. My numbers rank Belgium (4th) well ahead of England (11th). When Belgium swaps places with England, Brazil could not play Belgium in the quarterfinal, which results in a small increase of 0.4% in win probability.

One model is not enough

In 2004, Lasek and coworkers performed a study on which international football/soccer rankings best predicted matches. Among other results, they found a combination of rankings produced the best predictions.

In The Power Rank 2018 World Cup Analytics, you get my ensemble predictions for win probabilities after the group stage. To get this package, click on “I want this!”

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