These predictions are based on my world football/soccer rankings that take game results over a 5 year period and adjust for strength of schedule. These predictions assume reversion to the team mean over recent history.
Saturday, June 26
Wales vs Denmark: Wales has a 22.9% chance to win. Denmark has a 46.4% chance to win. There is a 30.7% chance for a tie.
Probability of over 2.5 goals is 0.295. Probability of under 2.5 goals is 0.705.
Italy vs Austria: Italy has a 64.8% chance to win. Austria has a 10.0% chance to win. There is a 25.2% chance for a tie.
Probability of over 2.5 goals is 0.305. Probability of under 2.5 goals is 0.695.
Sunday, June 27
Netherlands vs Czech Republic: Netherlands has a 62.2% chance to win. Czech Republic has a 14.6% chance to win. There is a 23.1% chance for a tie.
Probability of over 2.5 goals is 0.446. Probability of under 2.5 goals is 0.554.
Belgium vs Portugal: Belgium has a 45.2% chance to win. Portugal has a 32.0% chance to win. There is a 22.8% chance for a tie.
Probability of over 2.5 goals is 0.627. Probability of under 2.5 goals is 0.373.
Monday, June 28
Croatia vs Spain: Croatia has a 22.7% chance to win. Spain has a 54.7% chance to win. There is a 22.6% chance for a tie.
Probability of over 2.5 goals is 0.571. Probability of under 2.5 goals is 0.429.
France vs Switzerland: France has a 54.4% chance to win. Switzerland has a 20.6% chance to win. There is a 25.0% chance for a tie.
Probability of over 2.5 goals is 0.438. Probability of under 2.5 goals is 0.562.
Tuesday, June 29
England hosting Germany: England has a 44.6% chance to win. Germany has a 30.1% chance to win. There is a 25.3% chance for a tie.
Probability of over 2.5 goals is 0.516. Probability of under 2.5 goals is 0.484.
Sweden vs Ukraine: Sweden has a 52.4% chance to win. Ukraine has a 20.6% chance to win. There is a 26.9% chance for a tie.
Probability of over 2.5 goals is 0.382. Probability of under 2.5 goals is 0.618.
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