These predictions come from my world football/soccer rankings that consider matches since 2016 and adjust for strength of schedule. The algorithm for schedule adjustment has performed well in published studies.
I’m using a reduced home advantage because of the reduced crowd sizes. Neutral site matches are denoted by ‘vs’.
These are the win, loss, draw probabilities for the first group stage matches. Check back for later matches.
Friday, June 11, 2021
Italy hosting Turkey: Italy has a 69.6% chance to win. Turkey has a 7.2% chance to win. There is a 23.2% chance for a tie.
Saturday, June 12, 2021
Wales vs Switzerland: Wales has a 25.6% chance to win. Switzerland has a 45.0% chance to win. There is a 29.3% chance for a tie.
Denmark hosting Finland: Denmark has a 74.4% chance to win. Finland has a 5.4% chance to win. There is a 20.2% chance for a tie.
Russia hosting Belgium: Russia has a 24.2% chance to win. Belgium has a 54.5% chance to win. There is a 21.3% chance for a tie.
Sunday, June 13, 2021
England hosting Croatia: England has a 53.6% chance to win. Croatia has a 21.6% chance to win. There is a 24.7% chance for a tie.
Austria vs North Macedonia: Austria has a 45.4% chance to win. North Macedonia has a 28.5% chance to win. There is a 26.1% chance for a tie.
Netherlands hosting Ukraine: Netherlands has a 67.6% chance to win. Ukraine has a 11.4% chance to win. There is a 21.1% chance for a tie.
Monday, June 14, 2021
Scotland hosting Czech Republic: Scotland has a 41.7% chance to win. Czech Republic has a 31.1% chance to win. There is a 27.2% chance for a tie.
Poland vs Slovakia: Poland has a 50.7% chance to win. Slovakia has a 23.5% chance to win. There is a 25.8% chance for a tie.
Spain hosting Sweden: Spain has a 63.8% chance to win. Sweden has a 15.1% chance to win. There is a 21.0% chance for a tie.
Tuesday, June 15, 2021
Hungary hosting Portugal: Hungary has a 18.0% chance to win. Portugal has a 58.9% chance to win. There is a 23.1% chance for a tie.
Germany hosting France: Germany has a 38.8% chance to win. France has a 36.9% chance to win. There is a 24.3% chance for a tie.
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