THE POWER RANK

  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
  • Log in

Can Cal beat Texas? The most important matchup of the Holiday Bowl

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Recently, we started ranking games according to the strength of the teams and an excitement factor based on our predictions. When applied to this year’s Bowl games, the Holiday Bowl matchup between Texas and California came up 6th out of 35, just behind the Cotton Bowl game between Kansas State and Arkansas. While it might seem strange that a December 28th game between two 7-5 teams ranks so highly, the matchup has a high excitement factor. The Power Rank (TPR) predicts a 0.8 point victory for Texas in a close game, essentially a coin flip. In fact, the algorithm predicted a 0.3 point win for Cal prior to the start of Bowl season. It changed its mind after Arizona State’s 56-24 loss to Boise State last week, making Cal’s 9 point win over the Sun Devils less impressive.

Also, after a week of watching teams like Florida International and Marshall play in bowl games, the Holiday Bowl does not disappoint in the team strength department. While we mocked the AP poll for putting Texas 19th after their 3-0 start, the Longhorns made it as high as 21st in TPR. Losing 3 of their last 4 dropped Texas to 26th at the end of the regular season. Cal was 62nd after an embarrassing 17 point loss to UCLA . They ended the season 3-1, and their only loss was a 3 point game at Stanford in Big Game. This late season surge pushed Cal up to 28th at the end of the regular season, a big factor in making the Pac-12 our third rated conference behind the Big 12 and SEC.

To further break down this matchup, we look at our offense and defense rankings.

The Power Rank offense and defense rankings show that Texas has a better defense but Cal has a better offense.

This visual is based on offense and defense ratings that correspond to the predicted points scored or allowed against an average opponent. (Click on offense and defense for the numerical values.) Texas has a better defense while Cal has the better offense. These rankings predict a 24.0-22.7 win for Texas, a defensive battle considering that a team scores 26.9 points per game on average. The 1.3 point margin of victory is similar to the 0.8 predicted by the team rankings.

These rankings point towards the Cal offense against the Texas defense as the most important matchup of the game. After watching his quarterback Zach Maynard struggle early in the season, Cal coach Jeff Tedford started calling more running plays in the last 4 games. The Bears racked up over 5.9 yards per carry in all but one of those games. This proficiency in the running game helped Maynard, who completed 67% of his passes and threw 5 touchdowns to 1 interception in those last 4 games. However, running the ball against Texas will not be easy, as the Longhorns only allowed 3.34 yards per carry, good for 18th in the country according to cfbstats.com. If Maynard can avoid the interceptions that plagued Cal early in the season, the Bears will stay in the game. If Maynard can find receivers Keenan Allen and Marvin Jones down the field, Cal can beat Texas.

For more content, find The Power Rank on Twitter.

Related Posts:

—About The Power Rank.
—Ranking college football bowl games: a viewer’s guide.
—College football’s incredibly slow progress towards a playoff.
—3 types of college football coaches that got fired.
—The Power Rank featured on KALX Spectrum, the science and technology show on UC Berkeley student radio.

Filed Under: California Golden Bears, College Football, College Football 2011, College Football Analytics, Football Analytics, Texas Longhorns

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Data driven betting information

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.

To sign up for The Power Rank's email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"

Popular Articles

  • How to predict interceptions in the NFL
  • 5 insights from academic research on predicting world soccer/football matches
  • How to win your NCAA tournament pool
  • The ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics
  • Accurate football predictions with linear regression
  • The surprising truth about passing and rushing in the NFL
  • Football analytics resource guide
  • The Reason You Can’t Avoid The Curse of Small Sample Size
  • The essential guide to predictive CFB rankings
  • How computer rankings make you smarter about sports
  • How to win your college football bowl pool
  • Do you make these 3 mistakes with college football statistics?
  • The Top 10 Things to Know About The Power Rank’s Methods

Recent Articles

  • Members: Super Bowl game and prop analysis
  • 7-Nugget Saturday, January 28, 2023
  • Cincinnati at Kansas City, AFC Conference Championship Game
  • Podcast: Dr. Eric Eager on the NFL Conference Championships
  • Members: Football analysis for NFL Conference Championships

© 2023 The Power Rank Inc., All rights reserved.

About, Terms of Use, Privacy Policy

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.


These are the goals with every correspondence, which cover bets on the NFL and college football.


To sign up for The Power Rank's free email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"


No thanks, I'll make my predictions without data and analytics.

{"cookieName":"wBounce","isAggressive":false,"isSitewide":true,"hesitation":"","openAnimation":false,"exitAnimation":false,"timer":"","sensitivity":"","cookieExpire":"","cookieDomain":"","autoFire":"","isAnalyticsEnabled":true}
  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member