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Texas is wildly overrated in the AP poll

By Dr. Ed Feng 5 Comments

Texas, back on track
Avenge embarrassing loss
AP, ranked too high

The Texas Longhorns traveled to the Rose Bowl this Saturday and beat UCLA 49-20. The game wasn’t close, as Texas took a command 21-0 lead at the beginning of the second quarter. Freshman running back Malcolm Brown continued to live up to the hype and rushed for 110 yards. Coach Mack Brown seemed to finally settle the quarterback controversy that raged since spring practice by starting Case McCoy, younger brother of Longhorn legend Colt McCoy. The younger threw for 168 yards on only 15 attempts and dropped some jaws with his Houdini like ability to keep plays alive in the backfield. Watch the first 20 seconds of this clip. The Longhorns avenged a 34-12 loss to UCLA at home last year, giving their fan base that warm fuzzy feeling that comes from knowing they’re not as bad as the dregs of the Pac 12.

But what do we really know about Texas? UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel inexplicably started a quarterback who suffered a concussion and a shoulder injury two weeks ago. Not surprisingly, Kevin Prince threw intercepts on each of UCLA’s first three drives before getting benched. And UCLA isn’t a good team, finishing 67th in The Power Rank last year and falling to 91st after 3 weeks this year. Last week, Texas needed a second half rally to nip BYU 17-16 at home. This week, BYU showed their true strength by losing 54-10 at home to arch rival Utah. The Cougar defensive linemen must have hit the doughnut shop instead of the gym this off season, as Utah ran the ball down their throats in the fourth quarter. In the first week of the season, Texas beat Rice, the small school from Houston that has only been ranked above 100 in The Power Rank twice the last 6 years. Last year, Rice ended the season with a -14.0 rating, meaning they would be a 2 touchdown underdog to an average team.

Texas is wildly overrated at 19th in the AP poll. While no one knows exactly how those voters think, they are most likely voting based on perceived talent. Mack Brown is a great coach that always recruits well, so why not put Texas in the top 25 after 3 early season wins? The Power Rank, which demands a team earn its rank on the field, has Texas at 45th, sandwiched between Texas Tech and Washington. This season, the Longhorns have played teams ranked 106th, 73rd and 91st out of 120 teams. Early season rankings will always have their issues; for a good laugh, check out the early season results for this computer poll that helps determine the national champion. But no one will argue that Texas has played a good team yet. We won’t know whether Texas is a top 25 team until they face Oklahoma two weeks from now. Case McCoy might be the real deal, and Malcolm Brown might be the next Ricky Williams. But it’s too early to consider them a top 25 team.

1. Boise State. Early in the third quarter, Toledo trailed Boise State 20-9 but had the ball deep in Bronco territory. Toledo ran a screen play in which the offensive linemen let the defensive line charge through the line of scrimmage with the intent of throwing the ball over them. The two Boise State defensive tackles, Chase Baker and Michael Atkinson, read the play and pivot in unison towards their left in the direction of the throw. The grace of their movement would have earned a perfect score in synchronized swimming. Defensive end Shea McClellin also reads the play and gets his hands up to tip the pass. Chase Baker snuggles under it for the interception. If one tackle reads the play, credit goes to the player. If two tackles read the play in unison, credit goes to the coaches. Boise State turned the turnover into a touchdown which essentially ended the game.

3. Stanford. Arizona made the Cardinal quite nervous early when quarterback Nick Foles completed his first 17 passes. But he fell back to earth in the second half as Stanford’s offensive line began to control the line of scrimmage. While Stanford pulled away for an easy 37-10 win, the rest of the season may not be as easy without linebacker Shane Skov, who will miss the rest of the season with a knee injury.

4. LSU. The Tigers rumble into Starkville and beat Mississippi State 19-6 with two 4th quarter touchdowns. While quarterback Jarrett was terrible against Oregon, he threw for a very respectable 7.9 yards per attempt (21 of 27 for 213 yards) in this game. With quality quarterback play, LSU is a clear national championship contender.

6. Oklahoma. Before Oklahoma traveled to Florida State, both teams were ranked out of the top 10 in The Power Rank. With a 23-13 win, Oklahoma moves all the way 6th. They can continue to move up by avenging last year’s loss to Missouri (#14) this week. Florida State drops to 16th, but their defensive line kept them in the game against Oklahoma.

54. Florida International. After going on the road and beating Louisville last week, Florida International came up with another huge win (17-10) against cross state rival Central Florida (UCF). UCF might not be a household name, but they are 41st in The Power Rank and beat Georgia in a bowl game last year. The win by Florida International is even more impressive considering that they lost star receiver T.Y. Hilton late in the first half. Hilton ripped apart Louisville’s secondary for 2 touchdowns, 201 yards and 7 catches. With this out of conference performance, Florida International becomes a clear favorite to win the Sun Belt.

1. Boise State, 2-0, 34.48
2. Oregon, 2-1, 33.72
3. Stanford, 3-0, 33.49
4. LSU, 3-0, 31.88
5. Alabama, 3-0, 31.34
6. Oklahoma, 2-0, 31.21
7. Wisconsin, 3-0, 30.65
8. Auburn, 2-1, 29.93
9. TCU, 2-1, 29.24
10. Oklahoma State, 3-0, 28.51
11. Virginia Tech, 3-0, 27.69
12. Arkansas, 3-0, 27.26
13. Texas A&M, 2-0, 25.82
14. Missouri, 2-1, 25.71
15. Nebraska, 3-0, 25.44
16. Florida State, 1-1, 25.22
17. South Carolina, 3-0, 24.15
18. West Virginia, 3-0, 23.98
19. Clemson, 3-0, 23.72
20. Ohio State, 2-1, 23.01
21. North Carolina State, 2-1, 22.25
22. Arizona State, 2-1, 22.22
23. Miami (FL), 1-1, 21.81
24. Iowa, 2-1, 21.29
25. USC, 3-0, 21.11

Filed Under: College Football, College Football 2011, College Football Analytics, LSU Tigers, Mack Brown, Stanford Cardinal, Texas Longhorns, UCLA Bruins

Comments

  1. dewayne jordan says

    September 26, 2011 at 6:40 am

    fiu !!!!!!!!!!! really, youre a hater hookem horns

    Reply
  2. Ed Feng says

    September 26, 2011 at 8:06 am

    Dewayne,

    Thanks for stopping by. Not a hater, just pointing out the realities of the schedule so far. Texas has plenty of room to prove me wrong against Iowa State and Oklahoma the next two weeks.

    Reply
  3. George Castillo says

    September 29, 2011 at 12:45 pm

    Ed, you forget to mention that the BYU game was close because Gilbert threw two picks while going 2 of 8 in passing, putting us at 13-0. McCoy came and proceeded to go 7 of 8, and led the team from behind to a victory. Under a stable QB, Texas proceeded to run over its competition, finally showing some spark in the 1st quarter, something it hasn’t done in quite a long time. The running game also exists for the first time in a while, and not running by the QB either. Texas’ ability to run the ball will pay dividends in helping the defense rest during offensive possessions, not to mention set up some good play action.

    Texas defense is also showing more promise under Diaz, with more picks and more energy. It helps when they aren’t on the field all the time in short field position because of turnovers. While I agree that Texas is still young, I think they are already showing that the coaching changes have had a good influence on both sides of the ball. Looking at the rankings, I don’t see any other team, besides maybe Georgia Tech, that deserves to be ahead of Texas at this point. True, we probably lose to the OU juggernaut, but that may be the case for most teams this year. The test will be OSU, KState and A&M. Will the Horns have 1-2 losses or 4 losses? Well, until there are losses, the Horns are ranked where they should be.

    Reply

Trackbacks

  1. College Football Predictions, October 8, 2011 says:
    October 6, 2011 at 11:08 pm

    […] trying to peer into the magic ball and forecasting the strength of this Texas team. While we were doubtful a few weeks ago after their win over UCLA, Texas thumped Iowa State 37-14 on the road last week. However, Texas had […]

    Reply
  2. Can Cal beat Texas? The most important matchup of the Holiday Bowl says:
    December 27, 2011 at 4:59 pm

    […] play in bowl games, the Holiday Bowl does not disappoint in the team strength department. While we mocked the AP poll for putting Texas 19th after their 3-0 start, the Longhorns made it as high as 21st in TPR. Losing […]

    Reply

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