NFL 2011

3 things numbers tell us about the Super Bowl

The New England Patriots will play the New York Giants in the Super Bowl this Sunday. The Power Rank offers some numbers based predictions on the outcome.

1. It is not 2008. As you might have heard, the Patriots and Giants played in the Super Bowl recently. On February 3, 2008, the Giants pulled off a 17-14 upset over Tom Brady, Randy Moss and the Patriots. While Peter King at SI.com sees many of the same characters this time, this doesn’t mean the teams are similar. The Power Rank gave the 2007 Patriots a 14.7 rating, meaning they were more than 2 touchdowns better than the average NFL team. No other NFL team this past decade has come within 2 points of that year end rating. Our methods predicted that New England would beat New York by 11.1 points in 2008. The Giants cashed in a 19% probability of winning that game. This year, New England has a 8.3 rating, and The Power Rank predicts a point spread of 3.1. The Giants have a 40% chance of pulling the upset.

2. New England’s pass defense really is bad. Many have noted New England’s inability to defend the pass this year. The Patriots ranked next to last in total pass yards given up in the regular season. However, even the best pass defense will give up yards if the opposition throws enough. A better measure of pass defense is yards per pass attempt. But the Patriots don’t look much better by this metric. New England gave up 7.1 yards per pass attempt, 29th out of 32 teams.

3. Expect a lot of points. We also use The Power Rank algorithm to rank offense and defense. These rankings amount to scoring offense and defense that account for strength of schedule. Including the playoffs, New England has scored 32.3 points per game, but we assign an offensive rating of 28.8, still 2nd best in the NFL. This lower rating suggests that New England faced poorer defenses this season. The rating also implies that New England would score 28.8 points against the average NFL defense. New York has scored 25.0 points per game but has a 25.2 offensive rating, 5th best in the NFL. The offense and defense rankings predict a 31.5-28.6 final score for the Super Bowl.

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—NFL rankings.
—About The Power Rank.
—Can a defense force turnovers?
—The Power Rank featured on KALX Spectrum, the science and technology show on UC Berkeley student radio.

NFL Predictions, Conference Championships, January 22, 2012

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Both games should be exciting, but if you have to pick one of the two games to watch, opt for Baltimore at New England.

1. Baltimore versus New England. (0.58)
New England (2) will beat Baltimore (5) by 4.2 at home. Baltimore has a 37% chance of beating New England.

2. New York Giants versus San Francisco. (0.54)
San Francisco (4) will beat New York Giants (6) by 4.7 at home. New York Giants has a 36% chance of beating San Francisco.

For more content, find The Power Rank on Twitter.

—About The Power Rank.
—Should Nick Saban have gone for it on 4th down against LSU?
—Can a defense force turnovers?
—College football’s incredibly slow progress towards a playoff.
—The Power Rank featured on KALX Spectrum, the science and technology show on UC Berkeley student radio.

NFL Predictions, Week 17, January 1, 2011

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

With so many questions about playoff teams and seedings, we can’t just trust our algorithm to rank games this week. Dallas and the New York Giants play for the NFC East, a game that rightfully ends up 3rd in the rankings anyway. In the AFC, Baltimore and Pittsburgh are vying for the North title while Oakland and Denver’s fighting Tebows can both win the West. The four games involving these teams should get high priority this week, even if Pittsburgh is predicted to beat Cleveland by a touchdown on the road. And seriously, is anyone going to watch Seattle at Arizona, no matter how close the outcome? We should move that game from 2nd to 15th, just ahead of the other NFC West game between San Francisco and St. Louis, the worst team in The Power Rank.

1. Baltimore versus Cincinnati. (0.50)
Baltimore (5) will beat Cincinnati (14) by 2.8 on the road. Cincinnati has a 41% chance of beating Baltimore.

2. Seattle versus Arizona. (0.47)
Arizona (21) will beat Seattle (15) by 0.4 at home. Seattle has a 49% chance of beating Arizona.

3. Dallas versus New York Giants. (0.46)
New York Giants (12) will beat Dallas (13) by 2.2 at home. Dallas has a 43% chance of beating New York Giants.

4. San Diego versus Oakland. (0.42)
San Diego (16) will beat Oakland (26) by 1.2 on the road. Oakland has a 46% chance of beating San Diego.

5. New York Jets versus Miami. (0.41)
Miami (20) will beat New York Jets (19) by 2.1 at home. New York Jets has a 44% chance of beating Miami.

6. Detroit versus Green Bay. (0.38)
Green Bay (1) will beat Detroit (8) by 10.9 at home. Detroit has a 20% chance of beating Green Bay.

7. Tennessee versus Houston. (0.38)
Houston (7) will beat Tennessee (17) by 5.4 at home. Tennessee has a 34% chance of beating Houston.

8. Kansas City versus Denver. (0.37)
Denver (25) will beat Kansas City (23) by 1.6 at home. Kansas City has a 45% chance of beating Denver.

9. Carolina versus New Orleans. (0.32)
New Orleans (2) will beat Carolina (18) by 10.5 at home. Carolina has a 21% chance of beating New Orleans.

10. Chicago versus Minnesota. (0.30)
Chicago (10) will beat Minnesota (30) by 4.3 on the road. Minnesota has a 37% chance of beating Chicago.

11. Washington versus Philadelphia. (0.29)
Philadelphia (9) will beat Washington (24) by 6.2 at home. Washington has a 31% chance of beating Philadelphia.

12. Pittsburgh versus Cleveland. (0.28)
Pittsburgh (6) will beat Cleveland (28) by 7.0 on the road. Cleveland has a 29% chance of beating Pittsburgh.

13. Buffalo versus New England. (0.27)
New England (4) will beat Buffalo (22) by 10.9 at home. Buffalo has a 20% chance of beating New England.

14. Tampa Bay versus Atlanta. (0.20)
Atlanta (11) will beat Tampa Bay (29) by 8.1 at home. Tampa Bay has a 26% chance of beating Atlanta.

15. Indianapolis versus Jacksonville. (0.19)
Jacksonville (27) will beat Indianapolis (31) by 4.8 at home. Indianapolis has a 35% chance of beating Jacksonville.

16. San Francisco versus St. Louis. (0.16)
San Francisco (3) will beat St. Louis (32) by 12.2 on the road. St. Louis has a 18% chance of beating San Francisco.

For more content, find The Power Rank on Twitter.

—Ranking college football bowl games: a viewer’s guide.
—College football’s incredibly slow progress towards a playoff.
—3 types of college football coaches that got fired.
—The Power Rank featured on KALX Spectrum, the science and technology show on UC Berkeley student radio.

NFL Predictions, Week 16, December 24, 2011

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Houston at Indianapolis must have seemed like a tremendous Thursday night matchup before Peyton Manning got hurt. With the Colts’ struggles this year, this game ranks 15th (out of 16) this week. These new game rankings consider both team strength and an excitement factor from an expected close finish. The game rating next to the matchup has a maximum value of 1. Note the majority of games are on Saturday due to Christmas on Sunday.

1. San Diego versus Detroit. (0.49)
Detroit (12) will beat San Diego (10) by 1.3 at home. San Diego has a 46% chance of beating Detroit.

2. San Francisco versus Seattle. (0.48)
San Francisco (3) will beat Seattle (16) by 4.1 on the road. Seattle has a 37% chance of beating San Francisco.

3. New York Giants versus New York Jets. (0.45)
New York Jets (15) will beat New York Giants (14) by 2.1 at home. New York Giants has a 44% chance of beating New York Jets.

4. Atlanta versus New Orleans. (0.44)
New Orleans (4) will beat Atlanta (8) by 6.2 at home. Atlanta has a 31% chance of beating New Orleans.

5. Philadelphia versus Dallas. (0.44)
Dallas (9) will beat Philadelphia (13) by 3.1 at home. Philadelphia has a 40% chance of beating Dallas.

6. Denver versus Buffalo. (0.41)
Buffalo (26) will beat Denver (22) by 0.7 at home. Denver has a 48% chance of beating Buffalo.

7. Arizona versus Cincinnati. (0.38)
Cincinnati (17) will beat Arizona (20) by 3.5 at home. Arizona has a 39% chance of beating Cincinnati.

8. Chicago versus Green Bay. (0.37)
Green Bay (1) will beat Chicago (11) by 11.0 at home. Chicago has a 20% chance of beating Green Bay.

9. Oakland versus Kansas City. (0.37)
Kansas City (25) will beat Oakland (24) by 1.8 at home. Oakland has a 44% chance of beating Kansas City.

10. Miami versus New England. (0.31)
New England (2) will beat Miami (19) by 10.4 at home. Miami has a 21% chance of beating New England.

11. Jacksonville versus Tennessee. (0.25)
Tennessee (18) will beat Jacksonville (27) by 5.9 at home. Jacksonville has a 32% chance of beating Tennessee.

12. Tampa Bay versus Carolina. (0.24)
Carolina (21) will beat Tampa Bay (28) by 5.6 at home. Tampa Bay has a 33% chance of beating Carolina.

13. Minnesota versus Washington. (0.20)
Washington (23) will beat Minnesota (30) by 5.8 at home. Minnesota has a 32% chance of beating Washington.

14. Cleveland versus Baltimore. (0.16)
Baltimore (5) will beat Cleveland (29) by 13.2 at home. Cleveland has a 16% chance of beating Baltimore.

15. Houston versus Indianapolis. (0.16)
Houston (7) will beat Indianapolis (32) by 9.4 on the road. Indianapolis has a 23% chance of beating Houston.

16. St. Louis versus Pittsburgh. (0.09)
Pittsburgh (6) will beat St. Louis (31) by 13.8 at home. St. Louis has a 15% chance of beating Pittsburgh.

NFL Predictions, Week 15, December 18, 2011

By Dr. Ed Feng 2 Comments

Sorry about getting these predictions up so late. However, we can now rank this weekend’s NFL games (not including the Thursday night Jacksonville at Atlanta game) by the algorithm we applied to the college football bowl games. It considers both the strength of the teams as well as the competitiveness of the game. Check out this article for the details. This is a work in progress, so please suggest any improvements to it.

1. Pittsburgh versus San Francisco. (0.59)
San Francisco (6) will beat Pittsburgh (7) by 2.2 at home. Pittsburgh has a 43% chance of beating San Francisco.

2. New York Jets versus Philadelphia. (0.48)
Philadelphia (18) will beat New York Jets (13) by 0.4 at home. New York Jets has a 49% chance of beating Philadelphia.

3. Detroit versus Oakland. (0.47)
Detroit (12) will beat Oakland (21) by 0.5 on the road. Oakland has a 48% chance of beating Detroit.

4. New England versus Denver. (0.43)
New England (4) will beat Denver (19) by 4.8 on the road. Denver has a 35% chance of beating New England.

5. Baltimore versus San Diego. (0.43)
Baltimore (2) will beat San Diego (16) by 6.2 on the road. San Diego has a 31% chance of beating Baltimore.

6. Dallas versus Tampa Bay. (0.39)
Dallas (15) will beat Tampa Bay (26) by 1.9 on the road. Tampa Bay has a 44% chance of beating Dallas.

7. Miami versus Buffalo. (0.38)
Buffalo (25) will beat Miami (22) by 1.2 at home. Miami has a 46% chance of beating Buffalo.

8. Seattle versus Chicago. (0.36)
Chicago (9) will beat Seattle (17) by 5.3 at home. Seattle has a 34% chance of beating Chicago.

9. Carolina versus Houston. (0.26)
Houston (5) will beat Carolina (23) by 10.2 at home. Carolina has a 22% chance of beating Houston.

10. Washington versus New York Giants. (0.24)
New York Giants (14) will beat Washington (27) by 6.9 at home. Washington has a 30% chance of beating New York Giants.

11. New Orleans versus Minnesota. (0.23)
New Orleans (3) will beat Minnesota (29) by 10.4 on the road. Minnesota has a 21% chance of beating New Orleans.

12. Green Bay versus Kansas City. (0.23)
Green Bay (1) will beat Kansas City (28) by 15.5 on the road. Kansas City has a 12% chance of beating Green Bay.

13. Cincinnati versus St. Louis. (0.21)
Cincinnati (11) will beat St. Louis (31) by 6.2 on the road. St. Louis has a 31% chance of beating Cincinnati.

14. Cleveland versus Arizona. (0.20)
Arizona (20) will beat Cleveland (30) by 6.3 at home. Cleveland has a 31% chance of beating Arizona.

15. Tennessee versus Indianapolis. (0.13)
Tennessee (10) will beat Indianapolis (32) by 8.4 on the road. Indianapolis has a 26% chance of beating Tennessee.

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