Ben Brown, football analytics expert and contributor at Pinnacle sports book, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include:
To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.
This episode of The Football Analytics Show is also available on:
While these teams played in the Super Bowl last season, a lot has changed since that game.
Kansas City is known for their efficient pass offense. However, coach Andy Reid and QB Patrick Mahomes haven’t hit their lofty standards this season, as they rank 9th in my adjusted passing success rate.
Expect this to get better, as they still have the NFL’s best TE in Travis Kelce. In addition, rookie WR Rashee Rice as impressed so far with 2.28 yards per route run, much better than the NFL average of 1.5 for WRs.
Kansas City looks great based on this year’s numbers because of the defense. The pass defense ranks 2nd in my adjusted passing success rate.
However, regression is looming for this unit. Kansas City has a long track record of being league average on defense, and their personnel this season doesn’t suggest otherwise. In addition, the Chiefs are 18th in PFF coverage grade.
The offense will improve while the defense regresses, and this means that Kansas City’s rank of 3rd based on data from the current season should hold steady.
Philadelphia has an NFL best 8-1 record. Their lone loss came in a winnable game vs the Jets, as Jalen Hurts lost his mind with 3 interceptions. The Eagles have an unsustainable 5-1 record in one score games, with wins over Dallas and Washington twice.
The defense has been worse than last season, as Philadelphia ranks 16th in my adjusted passing success rate. CB Darius Slay and James Bradberry both have worse PFF coverage grades than last season. In addition, CB Josh Jobe has struggled to fill in for an injured Avonte Maddox.
After a rough start to the season in throwing the ball, Jalen Hurts has been great the past two weeks (NFL averages are 42.3% success rate, 6.05 yards per pass attempt, and defensive rank is according to my adjusted passing success rate):
Overall, Philadelphia ranks 10th in my adjusted passing success rate. Despite these recent performances, I don’t trust Hurts as a passer and view these games as outliers.
My member numbers have Kansas City by 4.8 points over Philadelphia at home. Based on only data from this season, I’d make Kansas City -5 over Philadelphia on a neutral site.
In addition, Jalen Hurts is listed as questionable, as he played through the Dallas game after taking a hit to his left knee. There is value in Kansas City -2.5, and I fully expect the market to move to -3 or more.
Here are 3 predictions usually reserved for paying members of The Power Rank.
CFB. Oregon State will beat Washington by 2.3 points at home. On Sunday, FanDuel had Washington -2.5 on the road. Now, most books have Oregon State -2.5, as sharp bettors recognize almost a month of mediocre play from the 10-0 Huskies.
CFB. Georgia will beat Tennessee by 8.7 points on the road. All world TE Brock Bowers returned for Georgia last week, and the Bulldogs have looked impressive since that close call at Auburn. Georgia is back on top of my member college football rankings, and I do not recommend taking Tennessee +10 because of this prediction.
NFL. Cleveland will beat Pittsburgh by 1.2 points at home. This prediction comes from my market model that takes closing spreads and adjusts for opponents. This model says that Cleveland is 3.5 points worse than NFL average with PJ Walker at QB. For this division game, I use a home advantage of 1.3 points, and I explain how I calculate this and rest advantage in the most recent episode of The Football Analytics Show.
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What is home advantage for an NFL team in a division game? How does this change in an out of division game?
This questions gets more difficult in college football, as out of conference games can feature teams of vastly different strength.
How much of an edge does a team off a bye week have over a team that played last week? This episode gives the most up to date quantitative answers to these questions in the NFL and college football. To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.
This episode of The Football Analytics Show is also available on:
Kevin Cole, football analytics expert and founder of the Unexpected Points newsletter and podcast, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include:
Kevin is always an awesome guest with many insights, and this episode is no different. To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.
This episode of The Football Analytics Show is also available on:
There are many reasons to doubt the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2023.
Pittsburgh is 4-0 in one score games this season, a mark that screams regression to .500. In addition, they got blown out against San Francisco and Houston in their other two games.
Second year QB Kenny Pickett has a low ceiling and one of the league’s worst PFF passing grades. The secondary has taken a step backwards, and the Steelers are looking up in the standings at a strong Baltimore team.
However, the Steelers actually have strong playoff prospects behind the Ravens.
Even with the looming regression in one score games, you can’t take away those four wins. At 4-2, Mike Tomlin looks poised to win 8 or more games in his 17th straight season.
TJ Watt is doing his usual damage in rushing the passer, but fourth year edge Alex Highsmith has leveled up this game. He has a 13.7% pressure rate, better than the 10.5% from last season when he had 14.5 sacks.
Overall, Pittsburgh ranks 8th on pass defense by my adjusted success rate. It might be a struggle to maintain that rank, as the defense ranks 22nd in PFF coverage grade. But with that pass rush, the defense should be better than NFL average.
With Pickett, the pass offense ranks a meager 24th in my adjusted passing success rate. However, they might have a breakout star in WR George Pickens. The second year player is gaining 2.46 yards per route run, almost a yard better than the NFL average for WRs.
This preseason, my numbers had Pittsburgh a half point better than NFL average, and data from the current season has not changed this assessment. My member numbers make Pittsburgh a pick against Jacksonville at home.
While this suggests value in Pittsburgh +2.5, there is a better way to bet the Steelers. With my best member numbers, the Unabated simulator gives Pittsburgh a 57.2% chance to make the playoffs.
This accounts for a strong chance to beat Jacksonville, and then home games against Tennessee and Green Bay in which Pittsburgh should be favored by at least a field goal.
The Power Rank and the Unabated NFL simulator suggests value in Pittsburgh to make the playoffs at +106 on FanDuel (available on Thursday, October 26, 2023).
Here is a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.
CFB. Oregon will beat Utah by 5.2 points on the road. The clash of Oregon’s offense (4th in my adjusted success rate) and Utah’s defense (2nd) will be epic. However, Utah’s offense (76th) will be the worst unit on the field.
CFB. Oklahoma will beat Kansas by 8.2 on the road. Oklahoma has the nation’s top offense by my adjusted success rate. While Kansas has gotten great play from backup QB Jason Bean, the defense has struggled again (91st).
NFL. Miami will beat New England by 5.9 points at home. Miami’s defense came into the season with high expectations because of new DC Vic Fangio. However, they have been awful at 29th in my adjusted passing success rate so far.
You want to make smarter bets that lead to more wins. My friends at Unabated have a host of software tools to make this happen.
Three weeks ago, I featured the power of the Unabated NFL simulator in suggesting value in Jacksonville +150 to win the division. Those odds are now at -220.
You don’t have to stop at Pittsburgh in this newsletter. In this part of the season, the NFL simulator is a fantastic tool for finding value.
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This offer ends tomorrow on Friday, October 27. Learn more about the Unabated software tools.
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