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Members: 2023 NFL preseason predictions for all 272 games

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

This content is for members only

Filed Under: Member Content, National Football League, Uncategorized

Podcast: Kevin Cole on the 2023 NFL draft

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Kevin Cole, football analytics expert and founder of Unexpected Points, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include:

  • Are NFL teams getting smarter at drafting players? (3:00)
  • Why it’s harder to build a team in 2023 (11:32)
  • Houston and trading up for the 3rd pick (13:56)
  • Arizona, trading down and trading back up (18:50)
  • Why Philadelphia traded up one pick (22:00)
  • Philadelphia and consensus big boards vs actual draft position (26:25)
  • The problem with Jalen Carter, and it’s not the legal issues (32:16)
  • The teams with the best grades by Kevin’s objective methods (34:55)
  • How Kevin rates this QB class (38:17)
  • A Will Levis comp (40:45)
  • The teams with the worst draft grades (43:43)
  • Detroit, their surprising draft grade and the NFC North market (48:55)
  • How much does the draft matter in predicting the 2023 season? (57:25)

As always, it was an enlightening conversation with Kevin. To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle:

This episode of The Football Analytics Show is also available on:

  • YouTube
  • Spotify
  • Apple Podcasts

Support the podcast on Patreon and get the 2023 football preview series.

Filed Under: National Football League, Podcast

Podcast: Matt Waldman on predicting NFL players based on watching film

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Matt Waldman, creator of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio and senior writer for Football Guys, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include:

  • The wildly overrated 1st round QB in the 2023 NFL draft (11:38)
  • Baker Mayfield (17:50)
  • The QB that might seem overrated but isn’t (21:10)
  • Anthony Richardson’s development (28:57)
  • How NFL players develop skills (35:25)
  • The difference between college and the NFL (39:40)
  • Talent vs hard work (42:16)
  • Mental aspect of playing wide receiver, Kenny Golladay, Gabriel Davis (52:36)

This is one of my favorite conversations every year. I highly recommend purchasing a copy of the 2023 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

This episode of The Football Analytics Show is also available on:

  • YouTube
  • Spotify
  • Apple Podcasts

Support the podcast on Patreon and get a premium episode every month.

Filed Under: National Football League, Podcast

How to predict interceptions for Super Bowl LVII

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

These insights were also part of a recent episode of The Football Analytics Show. If you’d rather listen to get a more complete analysis, click here.

On the surface, it seems like Jalen Hurts is better at not throwing interceptions than Patrick Mahomes. Both have interception rates better than the 2.3% NFL average during this 2022 season:

  • Jalen Hurts – 1.2%
  • Patrick Mahomes – 1.7%

However, interception rates for a QB are not that predictive. 

In my research, I have found a r-squared value of 0.07 from season to season for QB interception rate. This means that randomness plays a huge role in interceptions.

If you’re the math type, this idea of regression and r-squared should be familiar. If this notion of predictability doesn’t make sense, I have a visual primer on linear regression and r-squared.

To understand the randomness inherent in interceptions, think back to the AFC Championship game between Cincinnati and Kansas City. With about 7 minutes left in the 4th quarter, the game was tied at 20.

Joe Burrow steps back and launches a ball downfield to Tee Higgins. Kansas City defender Bryan Cook has good coverage, gets his hand on the ball and tips it up in the air. 

Sometimes, the ball lands harmlessly on the ground. Other times, the ball ends up in the hands of the defense. 

In this case, Joshua Williams caught the tipped pass for Chiefs for a pick. It was a critical play in a game that could have gone either way.

To better predict interceptions, we need to look at these plays in which a defender gets a hand on the ball. The NFL play by play tracks pass defended, which includes these tipped passes as well as when a defender jars the ball loose with a hit. 

To predict interceptions, consider bad balls, or the sum of interceptions and passes defended. In essence, adding passes defended expands the set of plays in which the QB puts the ball in a dangerous position.

Bad ball rate, or interceptions and pass defended per pass attempt, has a r-squared of 0.27 from season to season for the QB. This is as predictive as QB statistics get. 

Let’s look at the bad ball rates for the two Super Bowl QBs compared to the NFL average of 12.3% in the 2022 season:

  • Jalen Hurts – 11.4%
  • Patrick Mahomes – 8.4%

In this MVP caliber campaign, Hurts has been better than average. His bad ball rate has improved from his 14.7% during the 2021 season, his first as a full time NFL starter.

In contrast, Patrick Mahomes is elite in not putting the ball in dangerous situations, as he has a bad ball rate about 32% lower than NFL average. He’s actually slacking this season, as he had a bad ball rate of 7.2% in 2021.

Kansas City has an edge in this Super Bowl, and it’s the ability of Patrick Mahomes to not put the ball in dangerous positions. My numbers already favor the Chiefs, but this analysis suggests the margin should be more than 2.

Data driven betting information

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7-Nugget Saturday is my curated list of sports betting tips and analytics, every Saturday at 10am Eastern. This week’s version will be full of Super Bowl props.

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Filed Under: 7-Nugget Saturday, National Football League, The Power Rank Newsletter

Podcast: The secret edge in Super Bowl LVII between Kansas City and Philadelphia

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

On the surface, it seems like Jalen Hurts is better at not throwing interceptions than Patrick Mahomes. For the 2022 season, Hurts has thrown 6 picks compared to 12 for Mahomes.

However, randomness plays a big role in interceptions. This episode looks at the data behind this statement and reveals a better way to predict picks.

Finally, I look at the numbers for the two Super Bowl quarterbacks to reveal which team has an edge. To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

This episode of The Football Analytics Show is also available on:

  • YouTube
  • Spotify
  • Apple Podcasts

Support the podcast on Patreon.

Filed Under: National Football League, Podcast

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  • About
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