THE POWER RANK

  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • CBB Rank
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
  • Log in

Podcast: The secret edge in Super Bowl LVII between Kansas City and Philadelphia

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

On the surface, it seems like Jalen Hurts is better at not throwing interceptions than Patrick Mahomes. For the 2022 season, Hurts has thrown 6 picks compared to 12 for Mahomes.

However, randomness plays a big role in interceptions. This episode looks at the data behind this statement and reveals a better way to predict picks.

Finally, I look at the numbers for the two Super Bowl quarterbacks to reveal which team has an edge. To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

This episode of The Football Analytics Show is also available on:

  • YouTube
  • Spotify
  • Apple Podcasts

Support the podcast on Patreon.

Filed Under: National Football League, Podcast

Podcast: Hitman on NFL betting, Super Bowl LVII

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Hitman, a professional NFL bettor, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include:

  • His evolution as a professional bettor (8:50)
  • Getting bets down, then and now (12:12)
  • His process for betting NFL spreads and totals (19:50)
  • Super Bowl spread bet (27:57)
  • His process for betting NFL player props (33:16)
  • Two Super Bowl props he likes (36:30)
  • More thoughts on the Super Bowl game script (41:34)
  • Why he sells picks (46:07)

Here is the Washington Post article on sports betting that we discussed.

Hitman also gives his real name for the first time on a podcast during the first few minutes of the show. To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

This episode of The Football Analytics Show is also available on:

  • YouTube
  • Spotify
  • Apple Podcasts

Support the podcast on Patreon.

Filed Under: National Football League, Podcast

Members: Super Bowl game and prop analysis

By Dr. Ed Feng 2 Comments

This content is for members only

Filed Under: Member Content, National Football League

Cincinnati at Kansas City, AFC Conference Championship Game

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Let’s rewind 17 months. Heading into the 2021 season, my metrics had Cincinnati 28th out of 32 NFL teams.

Second year QB Joe Burrow was recovering from a knee injury, and the pundits had all kinds of questions about his offensive line. There wasn’t much faith in the defense either if Cincinnati landed in the bottom five of the league.

In contrast to expectations, Cincinnati had a remarkable season and made it to the Super Bowl. However, that didn’t answer all of the questions about this team. Based on data from the 2021 season, all adjusted for strength of schedule by my algorithms, Cincinnati ranked 9th in the NFL.

The Bengals were a solid team in 2021, one with hopes of breaking out of the fat middle of the NFL. However, they should not have made it to the Super Bowl past Kansas City.

In the current 2022 season, Cincinnati got off to a slow 2-3 start. They didn’t look like Super Bowl contenders in week 8 when they got stomped by Cleveland 32-13 on Monday Night Football.

However, the numbers told a different story about Cincinnati. Based on the adjusted metrics from the current season, Cincinnati ranks 4th, in the range of Super Bowl contenders. The quants went running towards the Bengals like the New York Jets to the Senior Bowl QB practice.

The Cincinnati pass offense has made a significant jump. Let’s look at their passing success rate adjusted for opponent the past two seasons:

  • 2021 – 11th
  • 2022 – 2nd

A part of this improvement comes from negative plays. Burrow has been sacked 45 times this season compared to 70 last season. While some might attribute this to off season additions to the offensive line, sacks tend to be a QB statistic.

Against Buffalo, Cincinnati didn’t have three starters on the offensive line, and C Ted Karras played through a knee injury. Burrow got sacked once, and the Bengals had a sparkling 58.3% passing success rate (42.8% NFL average) in a complete domination.

For the AFC Championship Game, the markets opened with Kansas City as the favorite over Cincinnati. However, the spread moved towards Cincinnati, as some books had the road Bengals -2.5 on Tuesday.

This might show support for Cincinnati because of their performance at Buffalo. However, the market also might have inside information on the ankle injury to Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes. He missed a series against Jacksonville but came back into the game with limited mobility.

Over the past few days, the market has shifted again to Kansas City as the favorite. Maybe some sharps had the time to process that Cincinnati was fortunate to beat Baltimore during Wild Card weekend.

Baltimore had 364 yards with backup QB Tyler Huntley compared to 234 for Cincinnati. The difference in the game was a long fumble return by Cincinnati.

My member predictions like Kansas City by 3.8 points over Cincinnati. Despite the improvement of the Bengals, my predictive analytics rates Kansas City as the better team. 

My numbers assume Mahomes will be 100%, which he won’t be. However, if you believe Mahomes’s first practice Thursday went better than expected, then I’d lean towards Kansas City -1.

How to bet interception props

Picks are random. When a defender gets a hand on a pass, sometimes it falls harmlessly to the ground. Other times, it ends up in the hands of the defense.

In a 20 minute audio episode, I describe a better way to predict picks than a QB’s interception rate. It is helpful to count an expanded set of events.

This new metric is used to evaluate rookie San Francisco QB Brock Purdy and identify a prop bet for the NFL Conference Championship games.

There are multiple ways to get this audio content.

  • Become a member of The Power Rank and get my best analytics and predictions all year long.
  • Support The Football Analytics Show podcast on Patreon.
  • Get the 20 minute audio episode as a separate product.

Filed Under: National Football League, The Power Rank Newsletter

Podcast: Dr. Eric Eager on the NFL Conference Championships

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Dr. Eric Eager, the Vice President of Research and Development at Sumer Sports, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include:

  • His transition from PFF to Sumer Sports (4:20)
  • The problem with a football betting model (12:03)
  • Tampa Bay (14:20)
  • San Francisco at Philadelphia (17:38)
  • Cincinnati at Kansas City (21:33)
  • Overreaction to Cincinnati at Buffalo (26:17)
  • The evolution of the Kansas City offense (28:09)
  • The spread if Patrick Mahomes can’t play (35:08)
  • The role of luck in sports (47:08)

This episode of The Football Analytics Show is also available on:

  • YouTube
  • Spotify
  • Apple Podcasts

Support the podcast on Patreon.

Filed Under: National Football League, Podcast

Next Page »

Data driven betting information

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.

To sign up for The Power Rank's email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"

Popular Articles

  • How to predict interceptions in the NFL
  • 5 insights from academic research on predicting world soccer/football matches
  • How to win your NCAA tournament pool
  • The ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics
  • Accurate football predictions with linear regression
  • The surprising truth about passing and rushing in the NFL
  • Football analytics resource guide
  • The Reason You Can’t Avoid The Curse of Small Sample Size
  • The essential guide to predictive CFB rankings
  • How computer rankings make you smarter about sports
  • How to win your college football bowl pool
  • Do you make these 3 mistakes with college football statistics?
  • The Top 10 Things to Know About The Power Rank’s Methods

Recent Articles

  • Podcast: The secret edge in Super Bowl LVII between Kansas City and Philadelphia
  • 7-Nugget Saturday, February 4, 2023
  • Podcast: Hitman on NFL betting, Super Bowl LVII
  • Members: Super Bowl game and prop analysis
  • 7-Nugget Saturday, January 28, 2023

© 2023 The Power Rank Inc., All rights reserved.

About, Terms of Use, Privacy Policy

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.


These are the goals with every correspondence, which cover bets on the NFL and college football.


To sign up for The Power Rank's free email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"


No thanks, I'll make my predictions without data and analytics.

{"cookieName":"wBounce","isAggressive":false,"isSitewide":true,"hesitation":"","openAnimation":false,"exitAnimation":false,"timer":"","sensitivity":"","cookieExpire":"","cookieDomain":"","autoFire":"","isAnalyticsEnabled":true}
  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • CBB Rank
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member