Denver is not off to the best start this season.

Against Seattle in their opener, coach Nathaniel Hackett’s poor clock management made Urban Meyer’s NFL coaching seem competent. Denver followed this loss with a win over lowly Houston, but only by a touchdown.

In addition, QB Russell Wilson has not been stellar. Denver’s pass offense has a success rate of 39.7% compared to an NFL average of 42.6% this season. Wilson’s PFF grade from a clean pocket of 72.4 is 16th among NFL starters.

San Francisco might have lost QB Trey Lance, but their Super Bowl odds increased slightly with the return to veteran Jimmy Garoppolo. 

However, I think Denver has to rate at least as well as San Francisco at this point. This is mostly based on the pass offense.

Russell Wilson dominated the off-season headlines with his trade to Denver for a reason. To complement his talents, he has the services of two talented young receivers:

• WR Courtland Sutton, who had an excellent 2.08 yards per route run in 2019 (1.52 NFL average) despite getting the ball from Joe Flacco and Drew Lock.
• WR Jerry Jeudy, who had a promising 1.67 yards per route run as a rookie in 2020. He’s dealing with a rib injury this week.

In contrast, San Francisco drafted Trey Lance with the 3rd overall pick and started him this season because of the ceiling for Garoppolo. While the veteran might give the Niners a better chance to win now, I think the bump should be small.

San Francisco should have the edge on defense. They added steady CB Charvarius Ward from Kansas City this off-season. This is certainly an upgrade from the charred remains of Josh Norman they put on the field last season due to injury.

Denver also has a solid defense, but second year CB Patrick Surtain II has not practiced this week due to injury. Edge rusher Bradley Chubb has six pressures through two games, and he might return to his former production after an injury plagued 2021.

However, it’s difficult to predict defense. I’m more comfortable leaning on my expectations of pass offense at this point in the season.

My numbers like Denver by 2.1 points. This prediction essentially says these two teams are equal, and Denver’s advantage comes from playing at home against a non-division opponent.

However, the markets have San Francisco -1.5 as of Thursday. Perhaps Wilson isn’t the same player, or that Garoppolo should be at least a 3 point adjustment over Lance. I don’t buy either argument, and I find value in Denver +1.5 at home.

Football betting with a PhD edge

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New England’s offense seems like a mess. 

Bill Belichick has not named an offensive coordinator, much less a play caller. The primary offensive responsibilities could land with either of two former head coaches: Joe Judge and Matt Patricia.

There is more confusion with New England than at DraftKings if they were to see their stock price go up.

In contrast, Miami’s offense got a kick start this off season.

• The acquisition of speedy WR Tyreek Hill, one of the NFL’s best.
• The hiring of coach Mike McDaniel, which suggests a more modern offensive scheme like the one run by his former boss, San Francisco’s Kyle Shanahan.

These two factors should help QB Tua Tagovailoa as he looks to secure his role as starter in his third season.

However, these subjective adjustments should not overcome the numbers. Let’s look at how these two pass offenses performed last season by my adjusted success rate.

• New England: 6th. A remarkable result with a rookie QB in Mac Jones.
• Miami: 15th. Everything about this Dolphins team screams average.

Not much persists from season to season in the NFL. This is why I do not use data from last season in my preseason predictions (more on how I make predictions later).

However, pass offense is the one metric with a modicum of predictability from season to season. 

Based on last season, it is hard to project Miami as better than NFL average. Despite the weirdness of the coaching staff, New England returns all critical pieces of the passing game in 2021.

New England should have a better pass offense than Miami in 2022.

Pass defense does not persist. We saw this when we looked at coverage metrics, and this randomness makes data based predictions difficult. 

Just for fun, let’s look at how these teams did last season by my adjusted passing success rate.

• New England: 19th.
• Miami: 8th.

New England lost elite CB J.C. Jackson this off season. Miami returns every player in their secondary.

But let me reiterate: it’s hard to predict defensive performance. Last year’s data has almost no bearing on the current season.

In addition, Miami will not have CB Byron Jones against New England, and CB Nik Needham is dealing with a wrist issue.

For week 1 in the NFL, I rely on my market model which takes market win totals and backs out a rating for each team. This model predicts Miami by 1.4 points at home.

Combining this with the predictability of pass offense and the injuries to Miami’s secondary, this suggests value on New England +3.5. In addition, it helps that New England sage Bill Belichick is facing a coach in his very first NFL game.

Football betting with a PhD edge

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