Last week, I made the case that Notre Dame is the most underrated team by the college football playoff rankings. The committee just can’t overlook two losses by four points to Miami and Texas A&M.
However, I could have also made the case for Oregon at 7th in the latest playoff committee rankings. Oregon has a loss to No. 2 Indiana and almost slipped up at Iowa. Otherwise, the Ducks have mostly dominated inferior Big Ten competition, the mark of a great team.
Oregon is third in my member college football rankings. They are solid on both sides of the ball in my yards per play (YPP) adjusted for opponents:
- 11th offense.
- 5th defense.
USC has the typical signature of a Lincoln Riley team: potent offense with a dud of a defense.
The USC offense ranks 2nd in my adjusted YPP. QB Jayden Maiava has been great, but he does face an elite Oregon pass defense (3rd in my adjusted yards per pass attempt). The strength of this pass defense is surprising given the complete turnover in the secondary from last season.
Despite not playing the past two games, freshman WR Dakorien Moore still leads Oregon in targets and has a solid 2.43 yards per route run. Even if he can’t play, Oregon’s offense should be able to run the ball with a rush offense ranked 3rd in my adjusted yards per carry. In those same calculations, USC’s defense ranks 80th.
My model predicts a total of 63.6 points in this game, which suggests value in over 59.5. However, I like the spread more than the over because of Oregon’s pass defense.
My model has Oregon by 12.4 points at home. Earlier this week, members of The Power Rank got this analysis while the market mostly had Oregon -9.5. Even though most books are at 10, there is still value in Oregon to cover.
Here is a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.
NFL: New England will beat Cincinnati by 5.7 points on the road. It seems like Joe Burrow might return for Cincinnati this week against a New England defense ranked 28th in my adjusted passing success rate.
CFB: Michigan will beat Maryland by 14.7 points on the road. Michigan QB Bryce Underwood was fantastic for three quarters against Northwestern. Then he threw two picks and relied on his offensive line to carry the offense to a 24-22 win. My most popular video on YouTube is on what I would make Ohio State at Michigan right now.
NFL: Los Angeles Rams will beat Tampa Bay by 5.3 points at home. The Rams have quietly been one of the best teams in the NFL, as they rank 5th on offense and 4th on defense in my adjusted yards per pass attempt. No one has said anything about Matt Stafford’s back in weeks.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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