As Ohio State and Indiana snooze to the Big Ten championship game, Texas travels to Georgia for another monster SEC game. In terms of making the college football playoff, Georgia at 8-1 with only a loss to Alabama could potentially afford a loss. A two loss Texas team can not.
Texas QB Arch Manning has played better in the last two games. Against Mississippi State, he threw for 346 yards in leading Texas to a come from behind win. Manning’s 6.22 yards per pass attempt (YPPA) wasn’t too impressive (6.40 college football average), but he showed throwing accuracy in the second half missing from his previous games.
Manning followed up that performance with 328 passing yards against Vanderbilt two weeks ago. This time, his 9.94 YPPA was impressive. Now, Manning faces a Georgia defense that has been questionable against the pass (30th in my YPPA adjusted for opposing quarterbacks). Is this the formula for a Texas upset?
Probably not. First, Manning’s best performance came against a Vanderbilt pass defense ranked 87th in my adjusted YPPA. Georgia’s pass defense is having an off year ranked 30th in those same numbers.
Second, Georgia QB Gunner Stockton has been terrific as he leads the 12th ranked offense by my adjusted YPPA. This past week, he threw for 9.1 YPPA against Mississippi State, almost 50% more than Manning had against the same defense.
Stockton faces a tough Texas defense that ranks 9th in my success rate adjusted for opposing offenses with my proprietary algorithms. Safety Michael Taaffe returns for this game after missing the last two.
Even with a rest advantage for Texas off a bye week, my best number favors Georgia by 9.4. A market with Georgia as less than a touchdown favorite puts too much faith in Arch Manning in my opinion.
I sent this to members of The Power Rank with Georgia as a 6 point favorite. The market has moved, but there is still value in Georgia -6.5 against Texas.
Here is a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.
NFL. Philadelphia will beat Detroit by 3.6 points. I’m keeping an eye on the Detroit injury situation, as key starters like OT Penei Sewell, TE Sam LaPorta, S Kerby Joseph and CB Terrion Arnold have all missed parts of practice this week.
CFB. Michigan will beat Northwestern by 9.5 points at a neutral site (Wrigley Field). Michigan QB Bryce Underwood hasn’t been great the past two games against Purdue and Michigan State. Check out my minute video on the consequences of his performance.
NFL. Los Angeles Chargers will beat Jacksonville by 2.9 points on the road. The pass defense continues to excel under Chargers DC Jesse Minter. After adjusting passing success rate for opposing quarterbacks, the Chargers rank 3rd this season.
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