THE POWER RANK

Bracket Wisdom #4: Do road warriors excel in the NCAA tournament?

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Do college basketball teams that perform better on the road have an edge in the NCAA tournament? Conversely, do teams that only thrive at home fail in March?

Edward Egros looks at the evolution of home court advantage and how teams perform on the road compared to home. He identifies three teams to fade in the 2024 NCAA tournament.

To listen here, click on the right pointing triange.

This episode of Bracket Wisdom on The Football Analytics Show is also available on:

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Looking for smarter sports betting action this weekend? The Power Rank’s sports betting newsletter is the free service for you, as 5-Nugget Saturday is my curated list of sports betting tips, analytics and humor.

You’ll also get my March Madness cheat sheet that makes it drop dead easy to fill out your bracket. It’s based on my college basketball team rankings that have predicted the winner in 69.7% of games the past 15 tournaments.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”








 

 
 

The SEC contender with high upside

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Rick Barnes has created a program at Tennessee with a distinct signature: defense. For every season since 2020-21, the Vols have finished in the top 5 of my defensive efficiency (points per possession adjusted for opponent).

This season, they have another asset: projected NBA lottery pick Dalton Knecht. You will hear his story all March.

Knecht stood 5’6” as a high school freshman and didn’t seem like a future star. He grew to 6’3” by his senior year in high school and then finally his current 6’6” by the end of two years at Northeastern Junior College.

After two seasons in junior college, Knecht transferred to Northern Colorado and developed an offensive game worthy of the NBA. After two seasons, he moved again, choosing Tennessee as a place to work on his defense. He provides offensive spark that Tennessee has not had the past few seasons.

On offense, Knecht is strong and athletic at this height. Knecht is making 40.5% of his three pointers. This rate is a career high, and he doesn’t have an elite free throw percentage, so expect regression in this number (three and free throw percentages are correlated for players). Knecht also gets to the basket and makes 51.9% of his twos.

For other Tennessee players, point guard Zakai Zeigler is the heart and soul of the team. At 5’9”, he is an elite defender still working on his offense.

Santiago Vescovi is a 6’3” senior from Uruguay in his fifth season at Tennessee. With Knecht, his role on offense has diminished. However, he is a capable shooter, and his 34.2% from three should get better (a career low for Vescovi).

Heading into the SEC tournament, Tennessee ranks 2nd in my defensive efficiency, not a surprise. Knecht gives Tennessee the offensive lift that has them ranked 3rd in my member college basketball rankings.

Do not be surprised if Tennessee makes a deep run in the 2024 NCAA tournament.

Get your March Madness cheat sheet

This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter on Thursday, March 14, 2024. This is a free service that strives to be:

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You’ll also get my March Madness cheat sheet that makes it drop dead easy to fill out your bracket. And you’re going to need analytics more than ever in 2024 with such parity in college basketball.

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Bracket Wisdom #3: Mountain West contenders

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The Mountain West has had a remarkable season, as the mid-major conference might get up to six teams in the 2024 NCAA tournament. Edward Egros takes a data based approach to break down San Diego State, a team that made the title game in 2023, as well as Utah State and Boise State.

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

This episode of Bracket Wisdom on The Football Analytics Show is also available on:

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Looking for smarter sports betting action this weekend? The Power Rank’s sports betting newsletter is the free service for you, as 5-Nugget Saturday is my curated list of sports betting tips, analytics and humor.

You’ll also get my March Madness cheat sheet that makes it drop dead easy to fill out your bracket. It’s based on my college basketball team rankings that have predicted the winner in 69.7% of games the past 15 tournaments.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”








 

 
 

3 tips to win your March Madness pool

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You want to win your NCAA tournament pool. The money is fantastic, but the bragging rights are even better.

Before football realignment possibly destroys March Madness as we know it, let’s cash in this season. Here are three tips to get you rolling.

1. Use analytics. While this might seem like a no brainer since you follow The Power Rank, it is useful to look at the long term evidence behind predictive analytics.

My college basketball team rankings take margin of victory and adjust for schedule with my proprietary algorithm. In these neutral court games the past 15 tournaments, the higher ranked team has won 69.7% of games (694-301).

Let’s also look at the rank of the champion, the most important choice in your bracket because of the number of points earned. The champion has been ranked 1st or 2nd in my college basketball team rankings in nine of the past 15 tournaments.

The best part about these results? You can get these college basketball team rankings for free at The Power Rank.

If you sign up for my free email newsletter, you’ll get my cheat sheet based on these numbers the Wednesday before the tournament starts (see below). While they are not as accurate as my member numbers, it is a great start to your March Madness journey. 

2. Get in the right pool. I wanted to catch you before Selection Sunday, since you might as well light your entry fee on fire if you get this wrong.

Your chance to win a pool decreases with the more people in it. Every additional person adds to the chance that someone gets lucky and picks those upset Sweet Sixteen teams and the surprise Elite Eight team.

In fact, your chance to win a pool decreases exponentially with the number of people. Get in a small pool. Ten is ideal, but 30 is probably more realistic.

3. Know who is in your pool. Suppose you’re a Duke graduate, and you have the opportunity to join a pool with 29 other Dukies.

You are so relieved that stud sophomore Kyle Filipowski survived that injury scare during the court storming at Wake Forest. So what if Duke couldn’t beat arch rival North Carolina this season? You are ready to pick the Blue Devils as champion.

But wait a second. 

What is everyone else in your pool going to do? Who do you think they might pick to win? I’m guessing a majority pick Duke.

If so, it makes sense to fade what others are doing. The Dukies in your pool probably won’t acknowledge that Connecticut is the most complete team in the nation. UConn will also probably have the largest chance to win the tournament. 

Knowing the people in your pool is also key to understanding contrarian strategies. This is the key to maximizing your odds in an intermediate sized pool, which I discuss in my book How to Win Your NCAA Tournament Pool.

Get your free March Madness cheat sheet

Armed with these three tips, you are ready to dive into my 22 minute audio course on contrarian strategies. This is a condensed primer on my book How to Win Your NCAA Tournament Pool.

You can get this audio course by becoming a member of The Power Rank or as a separate product.

If you’re not quite ready for that commitment, you can still get the predictions of my college basketball team rankings. Next Wednesday, I will send you a cheat sheet that makes it drop dead easy to fill out your bracket.

In addition, you’ll get 5-Nugget Saturday, my curated list of sports betting tips and analytics every week. To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”








 

 
 

Bracket Wisdom #2: SEC contenders

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The Southeastern Conference has provided some of the best, most entertaining college basketball this season. Edward Egros breaks down the tournament chances for Auburn, Alabama and Kentucky.

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

This episode of Bracket Wisdom on The Football Analytics Show is also available on:

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Looking for smarter sports betting action this weekend? The Power Rank’s sports betting newsletter is the free service for you, as 5-Nugget Saturday is my curated list of sports betting tips, analytics and humor.

You’ll also get my March Madness cheat sheet that makes it drop dead easy to fill out your bracket. It’s based on my college basketball team rankings that have predicted the winner in 69.7% of games the past 15 tournaments.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”