THE POWER RANK

Bracket Wisdom #1: The simple, smart way to fill out your bracket

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How well do the college basketball team rankings at The Power Rank predict winners in the NCAA tournament? These predictive analytics are compared to the closing market over a huge data set.

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle:

This episode of Bracket Wisdom on The Football Analytics Show podcast is also available on:

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My March Madness cheat sheet makes it drop dead easy to fill out your bracket. It is based on my analytics that have picked game winners at a 70.4% rate since 2002, the same rate as the closing markets.

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Podcast: Dr. Nick Giffen on college basketball analytics in 2025

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Dr. Nick Giffen, a mathematics Ph.D. from North Carolina State that works at the Action Network, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include:

  • His journey to math Ph.D. and then sports betting (1:11)
  • College basketball player and team projections (7:14)
  • The aspect of college basketball predictions that a math PhD does manually (9:50)
  • Mathematical distribution of player points (16:25)
  • Gonzaga (18:05)
  • March Madness rollover strategy (20:12)
  • NFL player in-game predictions (24:53)

This was a must listen conversation, especially for those with an interesting in mathematical modeling. To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

This episode of the podcast is also available on:

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Looking for smarter sports betting action this weekend? The Power Rank’s sports betting newsletter is the free service for you, as 5-Nugget Saturday is my curated list of sports betting tips, analytics and humor.

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Podcast: Evan Miyakawa on college basketball analytics in 2025

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Evan Miyakawa, a statistics Ph.D. from Baylor and college basketball analytics expert, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include:

  • How to build a college basketball team now (1:15)
  • Michigan (4:58)
  • Florida (10:24)
  • How the player and team ratings work at EvanMiya.com (12:33)
  • Cooper Flagg of Duke (17:33)
  • Who is Joseph Tugler? (19:50)
  • Surprise team to win the NCAA tournament (23:34)

This was a great conversation. To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

This episode of The Football Analytics Show is also available on:

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Looking for smarter sports betting action this weekend? The Power Rank’s sports betting newsletter is the free service for you, as 5-Nugget Saturday is my curated list of sports betting tips, analytics and humor.

You will also get my March Madness cheat sheet that makes it drop dead easy to fill out your bracket.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”








 

 
 

Podcast: Aaron Barzilai on women’s Final Four, basketball analytics

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Aaron Barzilai has a Stanford PhD and has worked for multiple NBA teams. He has also founded HerHoopStats, a comprehensive site for women’s college basketball and WNBA analytics, and joins the show to discuss the 2024 Final Four. Highlights include:

  • South Carolina, coach Dawn Staley vs North Carolina State (0:42)
  • Iowa vs Connecticut (8:50)
  • Offensive, defensive efficiency for Final Four contenders (12:56)
  • Stanford PhD to the NBA (17:34)
  • The origins of HerHoopStats (24:40)
  • The growth in women’s basketball (32:32)

This was a great conversation. To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

This episode of The Football Analytics Show is also available on:

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Looking for smarter sports betting action this weekend? The Power Rank’s sports betting newsletter is the free service for you, as 5-Nugget Saturday is my curated list of sports betting tips, analytics and humor.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”








 

 
 

The SEC contender without upside

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No one liked Auburn before the start of the season. The Tigers started the season 31st in the preseason AP poll, a surprisingly accurate predictor of tournament games. This suggests Auburn lacks the upside to make a deep tournament run.

However, this might be Bruce Pearl’s best team at Auburn. They excel on defense, as they have the 4th best defense by my points per possession adjusted for opponent. Auburn is particularly stingy inside the arc, as they the lowest two point percentage allowed in the nation. 

Pearl doesn’t have a track record of elite defensive teams like Kelvin Sampson, but he gets the most out of two key players:

  • Johni Broome anchors the defense as a 6’10” mobile big that blocks shots. 
  • Guard KD Johnson has a high steal rate as a fourth year guard. 

Another interesting aspect of Auburn’s defense is defending the three point shot. This season, they have allowed opponents to make 29.8% of threes, 9th best in the nation. 

While Ken Pomeroy has showed a huge random element in three point defense, Auburn has an interesting track record of three point percentage allowed:

  • 2024 – 29.8%, 9th.
  • 2023 – 28.8%, 6th.
  • 2022 – 31.0%, 47th.
  • 2021 – 32.7%, 111th.
  • 2020 – 32.5%, 140th.
  • 2019 – 34.7%, 198th (Final Four season).

The trend is working in Auburn’s favor, although humans tend to see patterns in randomness.

On offense, Auburn ranks 12th in my adjusted efficiency. They have the 13th best 2 point field goal percentage after my opponent adjustments.

Johni Broome has improved every aspect of his game since last season. He transferred to Auburn from Morehead St last season and has improved his shooting to 59.2% from two and 35.1% from three this season.

Jaylin Williams has also stepped up his game in his fifth year at Auburn. The 6’8” forward is making a remarkable 65.3% of his twos and almost 40% of his threes. This might be sustainable, as he is also making 83.2% of his free throws (free throw and three point rates are highly correlated for players).

Chad Baker-Mazara is a sweet shooting forward that transferred from junior college. He has hit 41.8% of his threes this season and shows an instinct for passing.

After winning the SEC tournament, Auburn is ranked 3rd in my member college basketball rankings. The preseason AP poll might think Auburn lacks upside, and the path in the East Region with Connecticut is difficult.

However, the numbers consider Auburn a legit contender to make a deep run.

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This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter on March 17, 2024. This is a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
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You’ll also get my March Madness cheat sheet that makes it drop dead easy to fill out your bracket. These selections are based on my college basketball team rankings in which the higher ranked team has won 69.7% of games the past 15 tournaments.

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