You want to win your NCAA tournament pool. The money is fantastic, but the bragging rights are even better.
Before football realignment possibly destroys March Madness as we know it, let’s cash in this season. Here are three tips to get you rolling.
1. Use analytics. While this might seem like a no brainer since you follow The Power Rank, it is useful to look at the long term evidence behind predictive analytics.
My college basketball team rankings take margin of victory and adjust for schedule with my proprietary algorithm. In these neutral court games the past 15 tournaments, the higher ranked team has won 69.7% of games (694-301).
Let’s also look at the rank of the champion, the most important choice in your bracket because of the number of points earned. The champion has been ranked 1st or 2nd in my college basketball team rankings in nine of the past 15 tournaments.
The best part about these results? You can get these college basketball team rankings for free at The Power Rank.
If you sign up for my free email newsletter, you’ll get my cheat sheet based on these numbers the Wednesday before the tournament starts (see below). While they are not as accurate as my member numbers, it is a great start to your March Madness journey.
2. Get in the right pool. I wanted to catch you before Selection Sunday, since you might as well light your entry fee on fire if you get this wrong.
Your chance to win a pool decreases with the more people in it. Every additional person adds to the chance that someone gets lucky and picks those upset Sweet Sixteen teams and the surprise Elite Eight team.
In fact, your chance to win a pool decreases exponentially with the number of people. Get in a small pool. Ten is ideal, but 30 is probably more realistic.
3. Know who is in your pool. Suppose you’re a Duke graduate, and you have the opportunity to join a pool with 29 other Dukies.
You are so relieved that stud sophomore Kyle Filipowski survived that injury scare during the court storming at Wake Forest. So what if Duke couldn’t beat arch rival North Carolina this season? You are ready to pick the Blue Devils as champion.
But wait a second.
What is everyone else in your pool going to do? Who do you think they might pick to win? I’m guessing a majority pick Duke.
If so, it makes sense to fade what others are doing. The Dukies in your pool probably won’t acknowledge that Connecticut is the most complete team in the nation. UConn will also probably have the largest chance to win the tournament.
Knowing the people in your pool is also key to understanding contrarian strategies. This is the key to maximizing your odds in an intermediate sized pool, which I discuss in my book How to Win Your NCAA Tournament Pool.
Get your free March Madness cheat sheet
Armed with these three tips, you are ready to dive into my 22 minute audio course on contrarian strategies. This is a condensed primer on my book How to Win Your NCAA Tournament Pool.
You can get this audio course by becoming a member of The Power Rank or as a separate product.
If you’re not quite ready for that commitment, you can still get the predictions of my college basketball team rankings. Next Wednesday, I will send you a cheat sheet that makes it drop dead easy to fill out your bracket.
In addition, you’ll get 5-Nugget Saturday, my curated list of sports betting tips and analytics every week. To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”
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