No one liked Auburn before the start of the season. The Tigers started the season 31st in the preseason AP poll, a surprisingly accurate predictor of tournament games. This suggests Auburn lacks the upside to make a deep tournament run.
However, this might be Bruce Pearl’s best team at Auburn. They excel on defense, as they have the 4th best defense by my points per possession adjusted for opponent. Auburn is particularly stingy inside the arc, as they the lowest two point percentage allowed in the nation.
Pearl doesn’t have a track record of elite defensive teams like Kelvin Sampson, but he gets the most out of two key players:
- Johni Broome anchors the defense as a 6’10” mobile big that blocks shots.
- Guard KD Johnson has a high steal rate as a fourth year guard.
Another interesting aspect of Auburn’s defense is defending the three point shot. This season, they have allowed opponents to make 29.8% of threes, 9th best in the nation.
While Ken Pomeroy has showed a huge random element in three point defense, Auburn has an interesting track record of three point percentage allowed:
- 2024 – 29.8%, 9th.
- 2023 – 28.8%, 6th.
- 2022 – 31.0%, 47th.
- 2021 – 32.7%, 111th.
- 2020 – 32.5%, 140th.
- 2019 – 34.7%, 198th (Final Four season).
The trend is working in Auburn’s favor, although humans tend to see patterns in randomness.
On offense, Auburn ranks 12th in my adjusted efficiency. They have the 13th best 2 point field goal percentage after my opponent adjustments.
Johni Broome has improved every aspect of his game since last season. He transferred to Auburn from Morehead St last season and has improved his shooting to 59.2% from two and 35.1% from three this season.
Jaylin Williams has also stepped up his game in his fifth year at Auburn. The 6’8” forward is making a remarkable 65.3% of his twos and almost 40% of his threes. This might be sustainable, as he is also making 83.2% of his free throws (free throw and three point rates are highly correlated for players).
Chad Baker-Mazara is a sweet shooting forward that transferred from junior college. He has hit 41.8% of his threes this season and shows an instinct for passing.
After winning the SEC tournament, Auburn is ranked 3rd in my member college basketball rankings. The preseason AP poll might think Auburn lacks upside, and the path in the East Region with Connecticut is difficult.
However, the numbers consider Auburn a legit contender to make a deep run.
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