Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, news and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern. Happy Holidays!

Buffalo at Chicago, NFL Week 16 – Pro bettor Rob Pizzola believes this game is all about the weather, as the forecast predicts sustained winds of 20+ mph in Chicago on Saturday with gusts of up to 40mph.

If this were an ordinary game played in normal weather conditions, Rob would lay the points with the Bills. However, weather is a great equalizer.

The Bills will have to run a suboptimal offense with a strong dose of the running game. In these conditions, the discrepancy between Buffalo and Chicago, a team with a strong run game, is minimal. For these reasons, Rob likes Chicago +8.5, available at Barstool sports book as of Saturday morning.

You can check out all the great work that Rob and his team do at The Hammer.

Tulane vs USC, Cotton Bowl – On Thursday’s episode of the Right Angle Sports Podcast, professional bettor Eddie Walls makes an emphatic case for the over in this game.

Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams might not be able to play for USC due to a hamstring injury. However, the Trojans have five-star backup QB Miller Moss waiting in the wings. There is ample talent on offense at the skill positions even without star WR Jordan Addison.

Tulane’s offense should also help with scoring points, as the USC defense has conceded explosive plays to good offenses all season. Based on Walls’s breakdown, the value on the over skyrockets if Williams plays and is close to 100 percent. There is still value even if USC has to turn to its backup QB.

In addition, my member numbers have 66 points for the total. This all suggests value on over 62 points when Tulane and USC play on January 2nd in the Cotton Bowl.

New Orleans Saints – With a 5-9 record and -29 point differential, New Orleans hasn’t exactly impressed this season. An early season switch from one short term answer at QB to another doesn’t add confidence.

But as I noted on the Unexpected Points podcast with Kevin Cole, New Orleans looks better in the underlying metrics. By my adjusted passing success rate, the Saints are 12th on offense and 8th on defense. Based on adjusted data from the current season, New Orleans is 9th.

My numbers predict Cleveland by 1.3 points. However, I don’t see too much value in New Orleans +3 due to the weather conditions. Strong winds in the cold should favor Cleveland’s run game. However, New Orleans is a team to look towards for value in the last two weeks of the season.

Kevin is one of the sharpest NFL analysts in the business, and you should check out his Unexpected Points on Substack.

Injuries and key absences – The NFL data is obtained from ESPN unless otherwise noted.

• Arizona QB Colt McCoy is out with a concussion. Trace McSorley will get the start.
• Baltimore QB Tyler Huntley is listed as questionable with a concussion but should start against Atlanta.
• Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts will not play against Dallas because of a sprained shoulder.
• Tennessee QB Ryan Tannehill is most likely done for the season because of an ankle injury.
• Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan hasn’t played the last 3 games and is questionable against Syracuse. While it is hard to find any media reports on his status, the markets have moved from Minnesota -7.5 to -10 this week. This suggests that Morgan will play.
• Western Kentucky QB Austin Reed hit the transfer portal, and I thought that meant he wouldn’t play against Southern Miss. However, he decided not to transfer and threw for almost 500 yards in a 44-23 win. Don’t assume that entering the transfer portal means a player will not play in a bowl game.

The value in teasers – On The Football Analytics Show podcast, Matt Landes talked about how teasers let you take advantage of small edges.

For example, let’s suppose you like New England +3 at home against Cincinnati, but then the market moves to +2.5. Instead of betting the dog at a worse number, you can use the dog in one of two games in a teaser. With a six point teaser, now New England +8.5 becomes one of two legs, and you have moved through the key numbers of 3 and 7.

Matt also broke down a few key NFL week 16 match ups on a great episode of The Football Analytics Show.

Unabated essentials – Captain Jack Andrews, Rufus Peabody and the excellent folks at Unabated have launched a new tier of their premium service.

Unabated essentials gives you access to a wide variety of their tools, including their odds screen and NFL season simulator. The latter helped me uncover value on Cincinnati futures earlier this season, and -160 to make the playoffs has already cashed.

Unabated essentials is less than a third of the cost of their premium membership. To learn more, click here.

NFL humor – “That game did end in penalty kicks, which I thought was the dumbest way a game could end. But then I watched the Patriots game.” One of Annie Agar’s best videos of the year.

NFL meeting week 15 pic.twitter.com/2Rk3kZcLPs

— Annie Agar (@AnnieAgar) December 20, 2022

Football betting with a PhD edge

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

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Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, new and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

World Cup Final – My predictions take the results all international matches over the past five years and adjust for strength of schedule. These numbers give France a 53% chance to win the World Cup over Argentina.

A virus has hit the French team, as midfielder Adrien Rabiot and central defender Dayot Upamecano didn’t play in the semifinal. Now, there are worries that the two central defenders who did start the semifinal, Raphael Varane and Ibrahima Konate, might be affected with the virus.

It seems like Upamecano will be able to play. Even if neither of the semifinal starters can play, France would probably insert William Saliba, who has played every match for an Arsenal team second in Premier League in xG allowed. France has a load of talent on its roster, and I see no reason to adjust my prediction.

Dallas at Jacksonville – Pro bettor Rob Pizzola thinks the market has been too slow to adjust to an improving Trevor Lawrence.

The Jags’ early season struggles on offense were almost solely tied to abysmal red zone performance. In the first eight weeks of the season, Lawrence ranked 39th of 40 qualified QBs in EPA per dropback in the red zone but sixth in EPA per dropback outside of the red zone. His recent performance in the red zone more accurately reflects the rest of his stats.

In addition, Lawrence is getting the ball out quickly, an important factor in mitigating the elite pass rush of Dallas. Rob likes Jacksonville +4, which agrees with The Power Rank prediction of Dallas by 3.2 points.

Check out all the excellent work Rob and his team do at The Hammer sports betting network.

NFL MVP – On Friday’s episode of Props & Hops, pro bettor Hitman looked at the NFL MVP race between Jalen Hurts (-165) and Patrick Mahomes (+190).

Both frontrunners have favorable matchups in week 15

• Mahomes and the Chiefs are -14 at the Texans
• Hurts and the Eagles are -9 at the Bears

However, Hitman prefers the dome environment for Mahomes compared to the blustery outdoor conditions at Soldier Field for Hurts.

In addition, there is a chance that Hurts doesn’t play the last week of the regular season if Philadelphia secures the top seed in the NFC. This suggests value on Mahomes +190 for NFL MVP.

Penalty kicks – With two evenly matched teams in France and Argentina, there is always the chance that penalty kicks decide the World Cup. Ryan O’Hanlon, the ESPN writer who wrote the excellent book Net Gains, did a deep dive into this topic based on a Stats Perform database that covers from 2010 through the 2022 World Cup Round of 16.

Surprisingly, Lionel Messi is not the best at taking penalties. He has converted 86 of 108 penalties, and his 79.6% conversion rate is very close to the 78% rate in the Premier League since the 2010-11 season.

This seems a little crazy, as Messi is statistically the best at just about any other quantifiable action. However, the error is Messi’s conversion rate is about 4%, and this makes it unlikely that he’s better than Harry Kane (56 of 64 for 87.5% but missed a huge one against France in the quarterfinals).

Key injuries and opt outs – The NFL news comes from ESPN.

• New York Jets QB Mike White has not been cleared to play. Zach Wilson will start at home against Detroit.
• Arizona QB Kyler Murray underwent season ending surgery to repair his knee.
• Denver QB Russell Wilson will not play against Arizona despite clearing the concussion protocol. Brett Rypien will get the start. Coach Nathaniel Hackett said Wilson will start their next game against the Los Angeles Rams.
• Atlanta QB Marcus Mariota is on injured reserve with a knee injury. Desmond Ridder will start at New Orleans.
• Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson will not play because of a knee injury. Tyler Huntley will start at Cleveland.
• Los Angeles Rams QB John Wolford is out. Baker Mayfield played the majority of their last game and will start at Green Bay.
• Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett is doubtful with a concussion.
• Purdue QB Aiden O’Connell has opted out of the bowl game against LSU to prepare for the NFL draft.
• Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall has entered the transfer portal but will play against East Carolina.
• Alabama QB Bryce Young and edge Will Anderson Jr., two projected top NFL picks, will play against Kansas State in Sugar Bowl. Coach Nick Saban doesn’t expect any opt outs for the game.

Betscope NBA – Betscope is a betting tool that helps you find the best price based on your beliefs.

In Atlanta at Charlotte last night, founder Colin Davy suspected value on the Hawks. When he changed the game’s implied scoring difference from Hornets -1.8 to -1.5, Betscope suggested Atlanta -4.5, +165 as one of the best ways to bet this.

Atlanta ran away with a 125-106 win on the road.

NFL MVP race – Gridiron Heights from Bleacher Report parodies the race as an airplane contest, and Kirk Cousins shows up in a glider.

These MVP mavericks are racing to become the league’s Top Gun(…slinger) ✈️🏆

New #GridironHeights pic.twitter.com/L7bmdDK6c3

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 23, 2022

Data driven betting information

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

• Valuable
• Concise
• Entertaining

Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”

 

 

 

Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, news and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

College football game winners straight up – Andrew Percival has tracked my member predictions this season, and he notes that they have been particularly good picking games straight up compared to the markets.

To do this, a model has to identify games in which the underdog by the market will win. Andrew looked at midweek lines, and found 44 games in which the market underdog was favored by The Power Rank member numbers. While you would expect the market underdog to win less than half the time, these teams favored by my numbers won 54.5% of these games.

This is particularly useful in bowl pools that require picking the winner of games straight up. To learn more about getting these numbers, check out a membership to The Power Rank.

Tampa Bay at San Francisco – Professional sports bettor Rob Pizzola has questions about the transition from Jimmy Garappolo to Brock Purdy for the Niners. He notes two things:

• By his research, San Francisco’s offense has dropped off significantly in terms of EPA per play and red zone TD percentage without Garappolo.
• Tampa Bay HC Todd Bowles is a defensive mind more likely to have a strong plan to stop a Purdy led offense.

These factors, in addition to my analysis earlier this week, suggest value in Tampa Bay +3.5.

Joe Burrow – This week’s Take The Points podcast episode explores the Bengals’ upward offensive trajectory, crediting much of the improvement to Joe Burrow’s elimination of negative plays.

Co-hosts Arjun Menon and Tej Seth note stats such as pressure rate and time to throw — which relate directly to sacks — tend to be very stable for QBs, even as the circumstances around them change (case in point: Carson Wentz). Burrow has bucked the trend, cutting down significantly on sacks and increasingly using his check-downs.

On the same episode, PFF betting analyst Judah Fortgang notes the offensive line is also helping; the unit with several new faces has developed well during the season, as there has been a substantial spike in perfectly blocked plays over Cincinnati’s last six games compared to the first six. This has helped Joe Burrow have just one turnover-worthy play since week 6.

Something to monitor for in-game betting: If the Bengals jump out to an early lead, their increasing ability to limit negative plays, coupled with Deshaun Watson’s current form, could make it an uphill battle for the Browns.

College basketball – This is a sample of predictions available to members of The Power Rank.

• Arizona will beat Indiana by 0.2 points. Arizona lost Bennedict Mathurin and Christian Koloko, two players getting significant minutes as rookies in the NBA. However, they still have the players to be competitive with a very good Indiana team in Las Vegas.
• Purdue will beat Nebraska by 9.1 points on the road. Purdue lost Jayden Ivey to the NBA, but they might be better this season. They already have wins over Gonzaga and Duke and are 2nd in my public college basketball rankings based on margin of victory in the current season.
• Kansas will beat Missouri by 3.9 points on the road. The Jayhawks renew an old Big 12 rivalry on the road. Wing Jalen Wilson has emerged as the leader for a Kansas team off to a 8-1 start.

To get these predictions the day before games are played and take advantage of soft early lines, learn more about a membership to The Power Rank.

Houston at Dallas – The Cowboys have been on a roll, and Houston has continued to be in a funk after switching to QB Kyle Allen the last two games. Even so, it seems incredible that the markets have Dallas -17.5 at home.

However, my metrics support this. My market model takes past closing point spreads and adjusts for opponent. The prediction with Dak Prescott and Kyle Allen has Dallas by 17.5 points.

Key injuries and opt outs – The NFL information is obtained from ESPN.

• Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson is doubtful against Pittsburgh due to a knee injury.
• Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence is questionable with a toe injury at Tennessee. A market spread of Tennessee -3.5 that is close to my member prediction suggests that he will play.
• San Francisco QB Jimmy Garappolo has a broken foot, but it won’t require surgery. He will miss the remainder of the regular season but could come back for the playoffs.
• Florida QB Anthony Richardson and Kentucky QB Will Levis will opt of bowl games to prepare for the NFL draft. 247Sports has a nice list of bowl opt outs.
• Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba will not return for the playoff semi-final against Georgia and enter the NFL draft. He was excellent last season but has barely played this season due to a hamstring injury

SEC Shorts humor – “They are trying to keep Alabama from the college football playoff. Join me in my riot.” Crickets.

Alabama tries to sneak on board the Playoffs anyway.

presented by: @renasant pic.twitter.com/A5C9XaibZj

— SEC Shorts (@SECShorts) December 5, 2022

Data driven betting information

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

• Valuable
• Concise
• Entertaining

Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”

 

 

 

Your weekly dose of sports betting tips and news, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

New York Jets at Minnesota – Pro bettor Rob Pizzola is still not a believer in the Vikings, who have more of the profile of a six win than a nine win team. Jets QB Mike White has excelled against zone defenses in his career, and Minnesota loves to play a soft zone.

Meanwhile, the absence of Minnesota LT Christian Darrisaw will likely be felt against this Jets front seven. New York can generate pressure without sending extra defenders, and that gives them the best chance to limit Justin Jefferson’s output.

Rob likes Jets +3 on the road at Minnesota. Check out all the excellent work Rob and his team do at The Hammer.

World Cup Round of 16 Predictions – These predictions are based on my world football/soccer rankings that take a five year window of match results and adjust for opponent.

• England has a 66.9% chance to advance over Senegal – My numbers always tend to underestimate England (-500 to advance at FanDuel). They did look strong in the group stage, especially against Iran and Wales.
• Croatia has 54% chance to advance over Japan – Japan might have won a group over Germany and Spain, but they will be underdogs against a solid Croatia.
• Portugal has a 60.5% chance to advance over Switzerland – Portugal is the more talented team, but Switzerland showed some incredible passing in a 3-2 win over Serbia to advance out of the group stage.

Check out all of my Round of 16 predictions for the 2022 World Cup.

Indianapolis at Dallas, NFL Week 13 – On this week’s Edge Rush podcast, handicapper ClevTA says Cowboys -10.5 is too much. He notes the Colts’ defense, which ranks 8th in EPA, marks a significant step up in class for the Dallas offense. Since Dak Prescott’s return, Cowboys’ other opponents have ranked quite poorly in defensive EPA: 32nd, 30th, 24th, 16th and 25th.

Edge Rush co-analyst and professional bettor Hitman singles out the first half as an angle to consider for the Colts — they may have to abandon their strong run game in the second half should Dallas build a lead, and Matt Ryan’s lack of mobility is a dreadful matchup against the Cowboys’ pass rush. Indianapolis +6.5 for the first half is available as of Saturday morning.

Key Injuries and potential absences – The NFL information is from ESPN.

• Los Angeles QB Matthew Stafford will not play against Seattle with a concussion and might not for the rest of the season.
• Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is dealing with a rib injury, but he is off the injury list and should start at Chicago.
• Purdue QB Aiden O’Connell has been dealing the death of his brother. He played last week against Indiana despite this death, which suggests he will play against Michigan despite leaving the team this week.
• Michigan RB Blake Corum is done for the season because of knee surgery.
• LSU QB Jayden Daniels is questionable with an ankle sprain against Georgia in the SEC Championship game.
• TCU WR Quentin Johnston looks set to play against Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship game. Despite not playing last week against Iowa State, Johnston leads the team in receptions.

College basketball predictions – These are predictions available to members of The Power Rank.

• Houston will beat St. Mary’s by 13.1 points. Kelvin Sampson has turned Houston into a perennial national title contender, and this year is no different. This game will be played in Fort Worth, so I have it as a home game for Houston because of asymmetric travel (2.92 points).
• Indiana will beat Rutgers by 4.3 points on the road. Trayce Jackson-Davis is making 71.2% of his two points shots, and Indiana already has wins over Xavier and North Carolina this season.
• Duke will beat Boston College by 18 points at home. Duke closed as a 1.5 point favorite over Purdue in Portland, but they went 2 of 19 from three, which is how a favorite loses by 19 points. Overall, the markets seems to respect this Duke team under new coach Jon Scheyer (6th in my market model).

To get all of my college basketball predictions, check out how to become a member of The Power Rank.

Sports betting books to read – Unabated put out a list of 10 recommended books for the sports betting aficionado.

I will personally vouch for The Logic of Sports Betting and Then One Day. I’m most interested in digging into Thinking Fast and Slow, despite how difficult the writing makes it to read.

College football humor – Utah had 533 yards in a 47-24 win over USC on Friday night, and it often did look like this.

https://twitter.com/byysports/status/1598900304795545600

Of course, you knew that this might happen because of Thursday’s newsletter on the game.

Data driven betting information

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

• Valuable
• Concise
• Entertaining

Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”

 

 

 

Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, news and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern. Even on Thanksgiving weekend.

Michigan at Ohio State – The Buckeyes came into this season with questions on defense, but DC Jim Knowles has fielded the 3rd best unit according to my success rate adjusted for opponent. Ohio State is 6th in rushing by adjusted success rate, so Michigan might not be able to run it down their throats like last season.

Michigan is tops in the nation in rush offense by my adjusted success rate. RB Blake Corum injured his knee in the first half of last week’s game. He came back for a single carry in the second half, and sources expect that Corum will attempt to play against Ohio State.

My member numbers like Ohio State by 6.9 points at home. While most of the market has the Buckeyes -8, sharp sports book Circa is at -8.5 as of Saturday morning.

College football playoff – The loser of Michigan and Ohio State will be a one loss team that failed to make the Big Ten Championship game. Their playoff fate hinges on the results for the next three teams in the college football playoff rankings.

Let’s look at the odds for these teams according to my college football member predictions.

• #4 TCU – A 40% chance they beat Iowa State and then Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship game. Their chance to win two straight goes down if Texas makes the conference title game.
• #5 LSU – The Tigers have had a great season, but they will be about a 9 point underdog to Georgia.
• #6 USC – A 31% chance they beat Notre Dame and Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship game. Their chance to win two straight goes up slightly if Washington makes the conference title game.

This season, The Power Rank member college football numbers have gone 73.8% (481-171) in predicting the winners of games straight up. This is better than the 72.4% of the closing spread from the markets.

United States versus Iran – The criteria for the United States to advance past the group stage of the World Cup is simple: Beat Iran and make the knock out stage. Draw or lose and go home.

Let’s look at two predictors for the United States to win.

• My numbers at The Power Rank give a 40.7% for the United States to win after including the second set of group stage matches.
• The market are more positive on the United States, as Pinnacle has a break even probability of 50.7% for a win over Iran. For the win, loss, draw market, Pinnacle takes an incredibly small hold of 2.8%, which suggests they have found the right price for this game.

Check out my predictions for the second and third group stage matches of the World Cup.

Working at Right Angle Sports (RAS) – Adam Chernoff recently started working at RAS, one of only a few reputable pick sellers, and he noted two things:

• The large team that puts in an enormous amount of work in following 363 college basketball teams.
• The importance of determining the value of a piece of information.

As a quant, I find the second point most interesting. RAS founder Edward Golden discussed the experience necessary in evaluating information on an episode of The Football Analytics Show.

Adam’s tweet thread on working at RAS is worth reading in its entirety.

NFL humor – “Oh, we did. We just wanted to see overtime even less.” Annie Agar rips on the Jets as part of her weekly NFL zoom meeting.

NFL meeting week 11 pic.twitter.com/MA49azYV3W

— Annie Agar (@AnnieAgar) November 22, 2022

Data driven betting information

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

• Valuable
• Concise
• Entertaining

Other emails offer analysis of college football and NFL games that founder Ed Feng has bet.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”