Your weekly dose of sports betting tips and news, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
New York Jets at Minnesota – Pro bettor Rob Pizzola is still not a believer in the Vikings, who have more of the profile of a six win than a nine win team. Jets QB Mike White has excelled against zone defenses in his career, and Minnesota loves to play a soft zone.
Meanwhile, the absence of Minnesota LT Christian Darrisaw will likely be felt against this Jets front seven. New York can generate pressure without sending extra defenders, and that gives them the best chance to limit Justin Jefferson’s output.
Rob likes Jets +3 on the road at Minnesota. Check out all the excellent work Rob and his team do at The Hammer.
World Cup Round of 16 Predictions – These predictions are based on my world football/soccer rankings that take a five year window of match results and adjust for opponent.
- England has a 66.9% chance to advance over Senegal – My numbers always tend to underestimate England (-500 to advance at FanDuel). They did look strong in the group stage, especially against Iran and Wales.
- Croatia has 54% chance to advance over Japan – Japan might have won a group over Germany and Spain, but they will be underdogs against a solid Croatia.
- Portugal has a 60.5% chance to advance over Switzerland – Portugal is the more talented team, but Switzerland showed some incredible passing in a 3-2 win over Serbia to advance out of the group stage.
Check out all of my Round of 16 predictions for the 2022 World Cup.
Indianapolis at Dallas, NFL Week 13 – On this week’s Edge Rush podcast, handicapper ClevTA says Cowboys -10.5 is too much. He notes the Colts’ defense, which ranks 8th in EPA, marks a significant step up in class for the Dallas offense. Since Dak Prescott’s return, Cowboys’ other opponents have ranked quite poorly in defensive EPA: 32nd, 30th, 24th, 16th and 25th.
Edge Rush co-analyst and professional bettor Hitman singles out the first half as an angle to consider for the Colts — they may have to abandon their strong run game in the second half should Dallas build a lead, and Matt Ryan’s lack of mobility is a dreadful matchup against the Cowboys’ pass rush. Indianapolis +6.5 for the first half is available as of Saturday morning.
Key Injuries and potential absences – The NFL information is from ESPN.
- Los Angeles QB Matthew Stafford will not play against Seattle with a concussion and might not for the rest of the season.
- Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is dealing with a rib injury, but he is off the injury list and should start at Chicago.
- Purdue QB Aiden O’Connell has been dealing the death of his brother. He played last week against Indiana despite this death, which suggests he will play against Michigan despite leaving the team this week.
- Michigan RB Blake Corum is done for the season because of knee surgery.
- LSU QB Jayden Daniels is questionable with an ankle sprain against Georgia in the SEC Championship game.
- TCU WR Quentin Johnston looks set to play against Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship game. Despite not playing last week against Iowa State, Johnston leads the team in receptions.
College basketball predictions – These are predictions available to members of The Power Rank.
- Houston will beat St. Mary’s by 13.1 points. Kelvin Sampson has turned Houston into a perennial national title contender, and this year is no different. This game will be played in Fort Worth, so I have it as a home game for Houston because of asymmetric travel (2.92 points).
- Indiana will beat Rutgers by 4.3 points on the road. Trayce Jackson-Davis is making 71.2% of his two points shots, and Indiana already has wins over Xavier and North Carolina this season.
- Duke will beat Boston College by 18 points at home. Duke closed as a 1.5 point favorite over Purdue in Portland, but they went 2 of 19 from three, which is how a favorite loses by 19 points. Overall, the markets seems to respect this Duke team under new coach Jon Scheyer (6th in my market model).
To get all of my college basketball predictions, check out how to become a member of The Power Rank.
Sports betting books to read – Unabated put out a list of 10 recommended books for the sports betting aficionado.
I will personally vouch for The Logic of Sports Betting and Then One Day. I’m most interested in digging into Thinking Fast and Slow, despite how difficult the writing makes it to read.
College football humor – Utah had 533 yards in a 47-24 win over USC on Friday night, and it often did look like this.
Of course, you knew that this might happen because of Thursday’s newsletter on the game.
Data driven betting information
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