THE POWER RANK

5-Nugget Saturday, March 18, 2023

By Leave a Comment

Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

Denver at New York, NBA – Pro bettor Eddie Walls likes the home dog in this one. He notes that Denver has been lackluster on their current road trip. As the top seed in the Western Conference, the Nuggets might be waiting for the playoffs to start.

Knicks guard Jalen Brunson is questionable, but Eddie thinks back ups Immanuel Quickley and Quentin Grimes should be able to get to the basketball against Denver. He likes Knicks +2.

Follow pro bettor Eddie Walls on Twitter.

Florida Atlantic vs Fairleigh Dickinson, NCAA tournament – On Friday night, Fairleigh Dickinson pulled off one of the greatest upsets in sports history in knocking off the 1 seed Purdue. And perhaps they will make a run like 15 seed St. Peter’s did last season to the Elite Eight.

However, Fairleigh Dickinson has one of the 10 worst defenses in college basketball (356th in my adjusted points per possession), and holding Purdue to 63 points was a fluke. My numbers like Florida Atlantic by 17.7 points, and you can grab -12.5 at Caesars before it moves in the direction of the favorite.

College basketball predictions – These NCAA tournament predictions are available to members of The Power Rank. All games are considered neutral site.

  • Houston will beat Auburn by 4.4 points. Houston guard Marcus Sasser didn’t play in the 2nd half against Northern Kentucky because of his groin injury, and guard Jamal Shead didn’t look 100% because of a knee issue.
  • Kansas will beat Arkansas by 3.3 points. The Jayhawks might be the 1 seed, but their margin is slim. Arkansas wings Anthony Black and Nick Smith are potential lottery picks in the next NBA draft.
  • Duke will beat Tennessee by 0.8 points. Even with the struggles of Tennessee, my numbers can’t quite get to Duke -3 like the markets.

The preseason AP poll – From the godfather of college basketball analytics:

Purdue is out, and Marquette is only a 2.5 point favorite over Michigan State.

NFL humor – Annie Agar with a fantastic 9 second recap of free agency.

In case you’ve spent all of your time researching a NCAA tournament champion this week, Aaron Rodgers plans to be traded to the Jets.

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

While NFL and college football are the main focus, 5-Nuggets will continue to curate bets from the sharpest minds in the business all off season.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”








 

 
 

Podcast: Death, eternal life and the 2023 bracket analysis

By Leave a Comment

The Region of Death is stacked with top teams in the 2023 NCAA tournament. In contrast, the Region of Eternal Life keeps giving poor teams an opportunity to advance. With help from analytics and the markets, I break down the 2023 bracket.

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle:

You can also find this episode of the podcast on:

Get your March Madness cheat sheet

My cheat sheet is based on my points based numbers and makes it drop dead easy for you to fill out your bracket (this will not appear on the site). To get this free service, sign up for The Power Rank’s free sports betting email newsletter.

This is a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

In addition, you get a free pdf of my book How to Win Your NCAA Tournament Pool.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”








 

 
 

The team to fade in the 2023 NCAA tournament

By Leave a Comment

The Power Rank 2023 Bracket Advice is now ready. To get this complete guide to winning your March Madness pool, become a member of The Power Rank or purchase as a separate product. The following is an excerpt.

The Jayhawks won the national title last year. It was not an upset because they had the second highest win probability by my numbers. Kansas had a high ceiling with future NBA players Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun.

It was an upset since they had only an 8% win probability compared to 32.6% for Gonzaga. Kansas was a great team but looking up at the favorite.

This year, Kansas is actually better on defense. They rank 6th in my adjusted points per possession, an improvement from 15th on their championship team. 

This improvement is particularly impressive because they are doing it without size. Last year, they had David McCormack at 6’10” to take up space and block shots. This year, Jalen Wilson is their tallest player at 6’8”, and he is more of a wing than a big.

Kansas looked awful on defense against Texas in the Big 12 championship game. They gave up multiple uncontested layups in a 76-56 loss. However, this performance seems like an outlier given the strength of their season long numbers.

However, Kansas is not nearly the same as last season on offense. As Agbaji and Braun are now both getting significant NBA minutes, Kansas has dropped from 6th last season to 31st this year.

Jalen Wilson has become the leader. However, he is not nearly as efficient as Agbaji last season.

  • Wilson in 2023: 47.4% from 2, 33.8% from 3.
  • Agbaji in 2022: 53.3% from 2, 40.9% from 3.

Kansas freshman Grady Dick might have a higher ceiling than Wilson, Agbaji or Braun. The Athletic has him as a lottery pick at 10th in the 2023 NBA draft, and he’s making 39.9% of his threes. However, his usage is low, which suggests this freshman won’t suddenly carry the offense in March.

Backup guard Joseph Yesufu has a jump shot that makes Shaq’s release seem fluid. Dick Vitale said that Yesufu “can really shoot the ball,” but his 26.6% three point field goal percentage suggests otherwise. Dickie V or numbers, you can decide which to follow.

Kansas’s rank of 31st on offense isn’t bad, and they are a blueblood that is getting picked as champion in almost 12% of brackets on ESPN. However, my numbers give them less than a 5% chance to win, as they are in the Region of Death out west with teams like Gonzaga and Connecticut.

I’m more likely to fade the Jayhawks.

Get your March Madness cheat sheet

My cheat sheet is based on my points based numbers and makes it drop dead easy for you to fill out your bracket (this will not appear on the site). To get this free service, sign up for The Power Rank’s free sports betting email newsletter.

This is a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

In addition, you get a free pdf of my book How to Win Your NCAA Tournament Pool.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”








 

 
 

Podcast: 3 insights into winning your 2023 March Madness pool

By Leave a Comment

You want to win your March Madness pool. The money is nice, but the bragging rights are even better. In this episode, I discuss three topics for the 2023 NCAA tournament:

  • The one thing you must get right to win, even before you use analytics (0:46)
  • Tennessee and their title chances (3:43)
  • How to predict March Madness upsets (6:54)

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

This episode of The Football Analytics Show is also available on:

Get your March Madness cheat sheet

The Power Rank’s email newsletter is a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

You’ll also get my March Madness cheat sheet that makes it drop dead easy to fill out your bracket. And you’re going to need analytics more than ever in 2023 with such parity in college basketball.

In addition, you get a free pdf of my book How to Win Your NCAA Tournament Pool.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”